Belgium Explained To Slovenes (And Whoever Else) In Ten Easy Lessons

LESSON VI : AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY RECENT : THE GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATIONS – BELGIUM’S FINAL DEATH BLOW?

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(Picture : PhotoNews)

At first I was having a laugh about everything that happened at the so- called government formation talks since the last elections. But I’m not laughing anymore, as day after day, it becomes crystal clear that Flanders and Wallonia are digging their political trenches instead of trying to find common ground. A recap…

WALLOONS AREN’T INTELLECTUALLY CAPABLE OF LEARNING FLEMISH

… is what our current formation leader and CD&V spearhead Yves Leterme said in a pre-election interview the… Wallonian media. Having allied themselves with the Flemish nationalist/separatist party NV-A (no, not the Viet Cong, but Nieuwe Vlaamse Alliantie (New Flemish Alliance)) in a cartel – not to traffic drugs from Colombia, but to win elections, which they did – the CD&V created unrest in Wallonia, where the politicians firmly said they would never accept Leterme – who is half Walloon by way of his father – as prime minister, because he demanded the in Wallonia much dreaded state reform, which would divide federal funding and authorities for several departments – like social security, something that doesn’t sit well in Wallonia, where unemployment is rife – to the regions. Walloons persistently present this state reform as ?a hollowing out of the federal structure’. Furthermore, he made the statement above, which resulted in a media witch hunt where everything Leterme says is being perceived as an anti-walloon and anti national government sentiment. Try to lead formation talks that way…

LETERME SINGS (AND IT MIGHT BE THE BLUES EVENTUALLY)

Everything Leterme says and does is scrutinized. Take, for instance, the fact that a TV journalist from RTBF asked him on the national holiday (July 21st ) if he knew the national anthem and if he could sing it. In response, Leterme sang… La Marseillaise . Huge cause for consternation down South, as ?Leterme doesn’t even know the ?Brabançonne’ is our national anthem, so he doesn’t care about this country!’.

EDIT December 6th 2008 by pengovsky: video removed by YouTube

The incriminating clipFact : 99% of the Belgian populace DO NOT KNOW THEIR OWN NATIONAL ANTHEM. Could have something to do with the fact that it’s not a drinking song (which I find infinitely cooler, kudos Slovenija!), but in fact, Flemings and Walloons only come together as Belgians at sports manifestations. It went so far that the Belgian Football (that is soccer to y’all Yanks :P) Association instructed the players for the national team to learn the lyrics by heart because they could be seen mumbling something or other or not moving their lips altogether when the national anthem was played before the matches (but they keep losing anyway :twisted:). So while Leterme probably doesn’t differ from his fellow countrymen on both sides of the language border, his leadership capabilities are as much in question in Wallonia as Bill Clinton’s were during the Lewinsky Affair. The long and short of it is that in neither case their leadership capabilities should be questioned, because they have nothing to do with it.
SO WILL STATE REFORM BE THE UNDOING OF BELGIUM?

There is no way of knowing just yet, but there is a real crisis. The Wallonian politicians find the Flemish demands for thorough state reform unacceptable, especially the aforementioned social security as well as fiscality (it is true that Wallonian policy makers are a bit more, erm, creative when it comes to taxes and more lenient toward those ducking them). So they launched a counter proposition, in which among other things they wanted to redefine the position of Flemings in Brussel (read : they want Brussels to become part of Wallonia with Flemings reduced to requiring special facilities, just like the francophones in the Flemish suburbs surrounding the nation’s capital.). Even a blind person can see that hell will freeze over three times before the Flemish politicians allow this.

So what is going to happen next? In a surprise move, king Albert II has returned from his holiday and will have talks with representatives of all parties involved in the government formation. This, to my knowledge at least, has never happened before in Belgium’s history. As I stated in a former post, the king’s role is restricted and he isn’t allowed to interfere in political affairs. That it would take such a move to defuse this crisis is a grave indication that all is not well over here. Everybody keeps acting as if the elephant isn’t in the room, but it’s there. The elephant in question is the undoing of this country. What was a mockumentary that had two thirds of Wallonia scared shitless is now threatening to become real (and the mockumentary itself reinforced the belief down South that Flemings are all separatists, which doesn’t help the present situation; thanks RTBF!).

But we’re not there yet. And I personally believe Belgium will at least continue to exist until the next national elections which is, if all goes well, in five years. But the stage is set. While I may be accused of predicting doom, I find it very feasible that even now a civil war could break out if the negotiations take too long. People are following this on both sides of the language border, they listen to their own versions of what’s going on through their own media and all it would take is one wrong word out of the mouth of a Fleming to a Wallonian or vice versa. The reason why I say this, is because we have the extreme nationalist party Vlaams Belang, who took lessons from their Nazi counterparts and could instigate riots just the same as the NSDAP did in the 30’s when Germany was in an unstable political and economical state. I worry about this, as they’ve been keeping unnaturally quiet lately. Even so, with or without civil war, I am very certain that what the picture above portrays will happen sometime in the not so distant future. Can I apply for asylum in Slovenija now? 😉

Dr. ARF

Tu Vuo’ Fa’ L’americano

If you hang around long enough in this city you’re bound to stumble upon a rare jewel. In this case it was a couple of Italian guys who set up an imprompru gig in the middle of Šuštarski most in the Old Ljubljana on Tuesday night. The trio was apparently joined by a passing trombone player and I came just in time to catch a funk version of Tu Vuo’ Fa’ L’americano, a legendary tune by Renato Carosone.



The gig ended with a traditional visit by the Bad Blue Boys and Girls (no offence, Blur), the crowd gave them the ritual booing, but in the end everyone went home happy… Well, some of us went for a glass of sangria 😉

It’s Those Pesky Slovenians Again…

Dr. ARF failed to submit his post this week. I take it he has more pressing engagements, so you’ll have to bear with me today


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I always find it funny how most of world financial experts tend to swear by their models, analysies, trends, historical data, reports, indices and whathaveyou, but in the end it all comes down to a psychological trick.


It’s all about how long they can pretend that a problem doesn’t exist. As soon as someone calls spade a spade they all panic and create a crisis that could have been averted if they all had the guts to talk about a particular elephant in the room. In this case – the subprime mortgages


And of course it was up to a Slovenian to bring it up. Unfortunately this artice in Financial Times Deutschland, where Marko Kranjec, the finally-named Governor of Slovene Central Bank talks about dangers the subprime mortgages in the US pose to global markets is in German, but the point is that he said out loud what everyone was whispering about for years now. That the subprime mortgages will kill consumer spending in the US as the inevitable raise of interest rates will mean that more money will have to be spent on returning the loans rather than spend it (either on goods and services or on new loans).


Sure enough only a day later the exact same thing happens.


But there are a couple of incosistencies in this whole business that I find rather amusing:

1.) The way the media claim that money had just vanished: It didn’t vanish. Money doesn’t just dissapear. Someone is making a hefty profit out of all of this. Probably the Chinese.

2.) The fact that the central bank all over the world intervened to stabilise the markets: I’ve no quarrel there, but I’d like to ask (in a very strong voice) all the neoliberalists and laissez-faire economists, where are your fancy theories now, huh? Shouldn’t the market sort itself out? Mičo Mrkaič, eat your heart out!

3.) Everyone was quick on their feet at reassuring everyone else that this is just a fluke and that it is manageable:: If it were manageable then it would have never occured. Either that, or there are some extremely bad global managers around.




P.S.: As of yesterday, pengovsky is officialy on vacation. 😉

Election Continuous

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Vote for continued flourishing of our cities and villages! (source)


As of autumn last year, this country is in a state of political flux which will last probably until 2012. We’ve entered what I like to call “continous electoral campaign”, as there are elections scheduled every year with a brief exception in year 2011. Allow me to elucidate with refferenced to specifics:

2006 – municipal elections
2007 – presidentital election
2008 – parliamentary elections
2009 – European elections
2010 – municipal elections
2011 – take a deep breath
2012 – general (presidential and parliamentary) elections


From a scientific point of view this gives us an ideal opportunity to follow the flow of politics, as agenda setting will by default be influenced by upcoming elections every year. You’ve had the opportunity to observe this on this blog throughout 2007 as assasination of character of President of the Republic took place. Why? To prevent him from running again, making room for a more “appropriate candidate” and to diminish the role of the President as such.


Next, it is almost obvious that 2008 will be the year of “great achievements” of this government as it will try to boost its ratings and secure another mandate. I’ve full confidence in PM Janša in that departement (please note the sarcasm), although it is entirely possible that the next coalition will be ruled by these two characters


And the pattern will repeat itself every year until 2012. On one hand, this is bad of course. With the ruling coalition up to its neck in a reelection bid, little actual work will get done, so I shan’t be surprised if Slovenia finds itself lagging in development in 2013.

On the other hand, it offers a brilliant option for a political “exit-stage right” for Janez Janša, thus really bringing political transition to an end. Namely: parliamentary and presidential elections coincide every twenty years (the parliament has a four-year term, while the President serves a five-year term). If we suppose that Janša will get another mandate as PM in 2008, it is safe to assume that he will either fuck up big, making himself unelectable as PM in 2012, or that Borut Pahor and his Social Democrats will slowly build up power up to the point of becoming the largest party in 2012. In both cases, Janša would be offered the perfect exit cue, as he would not have to face electoral defeat, but would rather just switch offices – much like Drnovšek did in 2002. But Drnovšek had to resign in order to run for President, whereas Janša wouldn’t have to.


It’s gonna be fun for the next couple of years 🙂


EDIT: My timing is impeccable. According to this article by RTVSLO Slovenia’s economy will cool down in 2013. A summary of the analysis by government economists in English can be found here.

Smart Move

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Joško Joras, a walking border incident, in good company of Croatian police force


Agenda setting 101:

The PM has launched a semi-secret initiative to finally resolve the many disputes between Slovenia and Croatia (maritime border being only one of them). If we – for the sake of the argument – ignore the fact that this is the zilionth initiative to try to do that and that only one (1) has at least come close to being accepted by both parties (the Drnovšek- Račan agreement), then we could say that this intiative has potential.

Except that even Janša apparently believes that it doesn’t.


Forget for a moment that Slovene PM Janez Janša and his Croatian counterpart are still accused of rigging numerous border incidents – thus making their attempts at solving this thing higly uncredible. There is an entirely different telltale sign that the latest initiative is just a smokescreen: Janša is conferring with every political party in the parliament about this.


Sounds lovely. But the cruel fact is that it’s just a way of getting an issue off the agenda and preventing it from being used in election campaign. How can I tell? Because if there was only a tiny chance of actually striking a deal, Janša would take those chances and try to secure a political victory he so desperately needs. By involving all political parties he is making sure that everyone will share the blame for failure and will thus be denied a strong PR weapon in the upcoming election streak.


Let’s look at two possible scenarios:

Less likely: He actually clinches a deal with both position and opposition parties. Odds are that (due to pre-election period) none od the parties – especially the ruling Blut-und-Boden coalition – will want to appear as if they’re betraying national interests and will take positions impossible for Croatia to accept. It will be a well publicised attempt, a lot of brouhahaha and Croatian government will protest vehemently that Slovenia is not proposing negotiations but is giving an ultimatum (which is totally unacceptable in today’s modern Europe, where Slovenia should – as an EU member state – lead by example rather than resort to extortion – I guess that would be the outline of Croatian response)

Janša can then claim that a) it was all the oppositions fault or b) just keep quiet, knowing that the opposition would be ill-advised to press him on this.

More likely: Janša’s move throws political parties in chaos, making them accuse each other of trying to sell out national interests, while he just shrughs and says “I tried, but I can’t do anything with these bozos”. Janša then has the exact same options as above




And so Joško Joras keeps on causing international incidents (someone lock him up for good, puh-lease!), the opposition has to keep its mouth shut or risk looking like morons and Janša and Sanader get to keep the shit-pan we call “Slovene-Croat border disputes” and stir it when their ratings drop.


Smart move, ain’t it? 😀

Put A Price On Your Blog

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In God we trust… All others, pay cash


What was meant to be a slight rant against so-called “blogger sellout” has gained momentum as of yesterday – in both cases had has provided the fodder 😀


Perhaps one should not be surprised that issues of bloggers’ copyrights and marketing have begun to surface. Until now bloggers have been mostly on the other side of the stick – accused of infringing copyright rather than having to defend original content. I guess part of it has to do with the fact that most bloggers swear by Creative Commons – a somewhat elusive and (at least in Slovenia) legally non-existent content.

The other part of course has to do with the fact that blogs bring little or no money.


MARKETING:

Let’s deal with the latter issue first – it first surfaced with several bloggers being invited do test-drive the new Renault Twingo and then exploded with full force when Kolosej (a cinema operator) offered free tickets to see Transofrmers – The Movie (insert transforming sound fx here) to bloggers who would have linked to Kolosej’s Transformers page.

The “problem” as I see it is of course the trade-off or lack thereof. Namely: What can a blogger and blog offer? Two things, basically. Content and links. The two are heavily interconnected, as content without links is non-existant and (in terms of this post) worthless, the links, however, cannot be effective without good content.

Now, let’s look at it from the other side: What does Kolosej have to offer. Again, basically two things: Movies and tickets to see them. The trick of course is, that tickets to blockbusters are usually not freely availble because why give them away, when you can sell them at € 4.95 each? So, which tickets do they usually give away en masse? Why, those which they wouldn’t be able to sell in the first place, of course!

So Kolosej was giving away worthless tickets and in return it got the most valuable thing a blogger can provide. I’d call that a ripoff, not a tradeoff.

But let us for a moment presume that bloggers who participated actually wanted to see the movie. Had they not taken up Kolosej’s offer, they’d have to pay for the tickets, naturally. But since they exchanged a link for two tickets, they put a price tag on a link. Since last week the price of a link is 9.9 euros. At least with bloggers who have participated. The problem is that now a precedence has been set. Next time an offer will be made to the blogging community, the price will already have been known.

Thirdly (for those keeping count), there is in my view also a question of ethics. A twofold question, actually.

One: linking as such. If memory serves, that’s called Googlebombing and is not allowed under Google guidelines. BMW even got banned from Google for a while for doing it. Some of us did it to help Michael M.’s solve his problems with a hosting provider, but that was done for a different reason.

Two: Linking without content. That’s even worse than just Googlebombing. Why? Because that’s sort of hidden advertisment. It’s like blogging about vodka and using Absolut font (or something in that manner). If a blogger got freebies on account of his blogging then I think it would be fair and square to publish his judgment of the freebie (a movie in this case). Furthermore, he should make every effort to it as objectively as possible (naturally, a movie review is almost entirely subjective, but still) – meaning that he should not be biased in favour of the movie or the company just because he got the freebie.

I’m not saying that individual bloggers who took the offer are or were in any way biased in favour of the movie or Kolosej, I’m just saying that every effort should be made to show that they are or were not. Otherwise, there can indeed be an impression of a sellout.

And lastly: I’ve no problem with making money out of blogging. I myself sport some google ads on this blog. But whether you like it or not, blogs are media. They are public, even though they more often than not feature personal accounts of events, people, etc.. And in media full disclosure must be made whenever there is even a hint of a conflict of interest. This way the integrity of the author and the media is preserved.


COPYRIGHT

Marketing is of course heavily connected to content. And had raises an extremely valid point when he says that blog-aggregators which display ads or otherwise market their webspace basically make money (if they make money, that is) by re-using contents of numerous individual blogs. To put is in Technicolor: aggregators who will display interesting and/or controvesial blogs and their entries (even just clips) will get more visitors and – by extention – more advertising money. Which is all fine and dandy – except for the fact that aggregators use other people’s work to make money. Which basically does violate bloggers’ copyright.

Of course, if you look at it from the other side, one could very well argue that blogs get more visitors by being featured in blog aggregators. Which is true to a certain point. However, as we all know, aggregators’ admins usually ask bloggers to publish links to
aggregators, which bloggers for the most part do. Call it a barter-deal. A link-exchange. No money involved. Besides. Aggregators need blogs to work – whereas blogs can technically exist without aggregators.

It is all very much like the current debate between Slovene media and this country’s clipping companies. The latter namely process almost all content produced by Slovene media on a daily basis, redistribute this content to their users – and charge them. At least one company (the largest among them) has started to recognise that this does contitute a possible infringement of copyright – precisely because media content is processed and distributed under a different brandname. So rather than wait for an expensive law suit, this company is (half-heartedly) trying to come to an agreement with most of Slovene media (the fact that this company is a part of the largest Slovene PR and marketing group does improve its negotiating positions a bit ;))

So the questions at hand are: what to do when (if) blog aggregators which also use blog’s content (and not just URLs) start making serious euros? Should blog owners be compensated? And if, what approach should be used? Would this concept hurt blog aggregators too much? What (for example) happens to Technorati if they have to compensate each and every blogger? What if aggregators start charging “membership”?

To put it in a nutshell: when money starts flowing around, do we all make a run for it, carving up the pie until there are only crumbs left or do we leave things as they are, each minding our own business?


So, that’s my two eurocents…. Personally, I think that eventually some sort of mechanism will have to be developed – perhaps a combination of the “clipping agreement” and Google’s AdSense. However, this mechanism should unite, rather then divide bloggers and aggregators – meaning that it should promote both good content and unbiased editoral process by agreggators’ admins. I’m not saying that they are biased now, just that noone really cares if they are or not – because there is no money involved. As for the marketing part… The moment readers will feel that a certain blog is favouring marketing against content, its ratings will drop and with it advertising revenue.