Technically, the entire Muddy Hollows political apparatus is on vacation for at least ten more days. But on Monday the Constitutional Court put in a little overtime and brought some finding out to Jernej Vrtovec and Anže Logar fucking around back in May. That is to say, despite some provisions that affect the budget, the court allowed a referendum on the omnibus law on emergency development measures.
The law was passed even before Janez Janša had his majority in the parliament and was seen as an early test of the would-be coalition. And yet, the Glorious Leader and his finance minister Andrej Šircelj are probably quite happy it will (in all likelihood) get shot down in a mid-November referendum. Though each of them for different reasons. Allow pengovsky to explain.
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Janša giving Vrtovec and Logar just enough rope to hang themselves
The law was a byproduct of the smoke-and-mirrors game that was the post-election coalition building. After Logar got cold feet and bailed from negotiations with Robert Golob and Gibanje Svoboda, Jernej Vrtovec started pushing his agenda hard. And since he already had a head start with Janez Janša, Logar had to play catch-up. He co-opted Zoran Stevanović, likely by selling him on the idea of becoming the parliamentary head bouncer, and suddenly everyone was a fucking trickle-down economist.
Janša, on the other hand, understood perfectly that such a law was constitutionally dubious, economically unsound and a bitch to enact. But since his kink seems to be watching his coalition partners hang themselves, he let his would-be fellow travellers play with the rope.
The other person who knew exactly how bad this idea is from the start, was finance minister and one of the few adults in the room, Andrej Šircelj. He knew from the get-to that the omnibus law would blow a massive hole in the budget. He was also very highly critical of some key measures in the law. To give an example at random, even before he was formally appointed, the future finance minister criticised the proposed VAT reduction of staple foods.
Maggie Thatcher would be proud
Šircelj said, correctly, that the retailers would pocket the difference while none of the savings would be passed on to the consumers. He also said, that the country and the budget might actually be looking down the barrel of a general increase of VAT rather than some sort of targeted reduction. Though he did walk that one back quite a bit soon thereafter.
The basic premise of the law was to undo as many of the major Golob reforms as possible, in one fell swoop. Which is how Vrtovec, Logar, and Stevanović as the comical sidekick, got to engage in some very neo-thatcherite aboutfuckery. You know, reduction in public spending, rolling back social services, and cutting taxes wherever there was an interest group that needed to have its, well, interests met.
But the self-styled Centrist Threesome knew they were playing fire. They claimed they were sticking all these different provisions into the same law bEcAuSe tHe oTheR sIdE dId iT tOo!!11!
Which, fair, but only if we neglect the fact that most of Golob’s inaugural omnibus law in 2022 was repealing Janša’s omnibus-mania from the pandemic times.
Brainiacs at referendum work
These guys, however, were aiming to wholesale gut legislation that was drafted, debated, passed, vetoed and then passed again, one legislative procedure at a time. So, not the same. And while we are at it, the moniker Centrist Threesome is bit of a misnomer, too. Centrists, these guys are not.
Logar, Vrtovec and Muscles from Kranjssels (sorry :))) of course knew they were being less than honest in their argumentation. They also knew that unlike Golob, who started his term with five victories at the ballot box inside of six months, they would get their asses handed to them if it came to a referendum challenge. Which is why they tried to do an end run around that.
You see, these jokers took a look at Article 90 of the constitution and liked what they saw. The provision bans referendums on taxation, customs and other budgetary legislation, rectifying unconstitutional laws and provisions, treaty ratification, and urgent national security and/or natural disaster measures.
Somehow these Brainiacs thought that if they stuck a couple of taxation provisions inside the omnibus law, the entire thing would be exempt from a referendum. Even on issues that would normally very much be a subject to a popular vote.
Don’t shit where you eat
As you can surmise from the title of this here blogpost, the court had other ideas. To cut a long story short, the basically told the ruling coalition to take a hike, but in legalese. It was a lopsided 7-1 decision, where even the normally Janša-friendly judge Svetlič, the ugly duckling who ain’t never gonna become a legal swan, sided with the majority. And just like that, the referendum was back on
And while they were at it, the court also told the parliament to stop fucking around with omnibus legislation in general. The judges wrote that every once in a while circumstances may warrant omnibus legislation but that this was not one of those times. Furthermore, by going feral on omnibus bills, the parliament is ruining it for everyone, including themselves. And one really shouldn’t shit where one eats, right?
So what happens now? Seeing as the court OK’d the referendum bid, the labour unions and the opposition will start collecting the necessary 40,000 signatures to force the parliament to call a vote. Starting on 1 September, they will have 35 day to collect them. It will take the petitioners less than that to reach that number. Pengovsky says two weeks, tops.
November gonna be busy af
After that initial deadline, the parliament has seven days to call a referendum vote. This can be scheduled on any given Sunday between a month and a year from the date of the parliamentary session in question. Usually, ruling coalitions want to get it over with quickly, so the current line of thinking is that the date will be 22 November.
If true, the date is smack in between of the first and second round of local elections. These will be held on 15 and 29 November, respectively. And combined with a swathe of referendums scheduled for a month earlier (11 October, more on that in a separate post) it will all make for a fucking wild political Autumn in Muddy Hollows.
The main reason Marshal Twito, Anže Logar and Jernej Vrtovec are probably keen to have the vote as soon as possible and yet separate from any other vote is that they will likely have their asses handed to them. Bigly. And they want to avoid any potential spill-over effect, because the law is so toxic and passed in so much bad faith, that the anger could very likely affect local election results. In all honesty, it still might, but this is probably their best chance.
Alternatively, they could try to schedule the vote one week after the second round of local elections and hope that people will go “what, again?” and not bother to vote. In which case, the law could potentially survive the challenge on technical grounds. Which, you know, plausible.
Coalition agenda on a year-long hiatus
Which brings us to the last item in this entire omnishambles. If the law is doomed to fail (and pengovsky thinks it very much is), then the coalition cannot touch those same provisions in all those different laws for a whole year. And since the omnibus law includes much of what in the coalition agreement or in specific party manifestos, a rejection of the law would effectively put a large part of this Janša government’s agenda on ice.
This would, of course be a disaster for Jernej Vrtovec and Anže Logar they will be feeling the heat from their financial and political backers sooner rather than later. It would also be a disaster for Mr. Muscles, but he already has his hands full with a Resnica clusterfuck entirely of his own making (again, a pengovsky post on that is forthcoming).
Remaking Muddy Hollows in his image. Again.
The only one who comes up on top regardless of the result it the Big Bald Bro himself. PM Janša really couldn’t ask for a better scenario. If by some miracle the law survives, his government delivered on some key promises early on.
But if the law fails and puts the kibosh on much of the coalition agenda for at least a year, the Glorious Leader is free to do whatever the fuck he wants. Which is to try once more to shape this sorry little excuse for a country in his own image. At the expense of this coalition partners, of course.
Because that’s just how he rolls.
