Slovenia | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

Health Minister Resigns, Sickened By Inability To Pass Reform

The ink on the resignation letter of minister of economy Stanko Stepišnik had barely dried when PM Alenka Bratušek saw another member of her cabinet resign earlier today when minister of health Tomaž Gantar tendered his resignation with media grabbing his statement about blockade of any meaningful health reform by powerful players and people with vested interest.

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Minister in resignation. Another one (photo by Barbara Milavec/Žurnal24.si)

Indeed, in his resignation letter (Google Translate here) Gantar did, in fact, acknowledge corruption as a major issue of Slovenian health system. However, he adds that in this respect the health sector is no different than the rest of the country and that some of his problems may very well stem from his attempts to curb the construction lobby. Which, in all honesty, is as political a statement about corruption as any. Not in the least because the health sector is prone to occasional fits of corruption, the most epic of them being a tender for operating tables in surgery halls of Ljubljana University Clinical Centre which dragged on for years and resulted in no charges being filed despite tonnes of taxpayer’s money being thrown out the window by the bucketful. Then there’s was a tender for a new ER under Janša government 1.0, which also ran aground. Or the new Oncology wing which even years after it was completed is mired by cases of Legionella in its plumbing. Or the (relatively) new Pediatrics wing, which took more than a decade to build and serves a smaller number of patients than its predecessor. And so on and so on…

Every minister in ever government practically anywhere in the world will try to position himself/herself as fiercely anti-corruption. But talking the talk don’t always mean walking the walk. And Gantar was stumbling in office practically from day one. That be day one of Janša 2012 government, where only both DeSUS ministers (Gantar and foreign minister and party leader Karl Erjavec) held the same positions as in the succeeding Bratušek administration and Gantar was widely perceived as being out of his depth, despite the fact that he ran a relatively successful hospital in coast town of Izola prior to his entry in politics. Therefore, although resonating, his statements on corruption are neither revealing nor ravaging.

Therefore the rest of his letter is much more interesting in terms of shedding light on high-level behind-the-scenes power-plays. It shows that Gantar fell not so much a victim to various lobbies but rather failed in a power struggle for the future (re)organisation of the health system. To put it bluntly, it a tussle between proponents of further concessions in primary health care (i.e.: private GPs performing public-health services) and proponents of concentrating primary health-care solely in the hands of state-related organisations. Gantar positioned himself as pro-concessions and named labour unions as well as Social Democrats as forces opposing further issuing of concessions.

Therefore, while somewhat of a surprise, Gantar’s resignation is not really rocking the coalition boat. In fact, it may even show that the coalition is closing its ranks in the wake of a confidence vote won by PM Bratušek and is now getting rid of some of its looser parts. Whether or not this is the case will be seen pretty soon and gauged by the simplest of instruments: whether or not DeSUS president Karl Erjavec will start making noises towards leaving the coalition once again. The grapevine has it that Erjavec and Gantar were not really on friendly terms as of late and it might just be that Erjavec wants a more friendly person fulfilling DeSUS cabinet quota.

As for primary health care concessions and overall reform, this might even be a good thing. Opposition to reforms is indeed staunch, especially with players who stand to lose a lot. But it was also shown time and again that given the right person in the right position, a deal can usually be brokered.

P.S.: Gantar didn’t really say he was “sickened”. It just that The Onion-like title reads well 😉

PM Bratušek Down A Minister. Just Not The One SDS Was Aiming For.

Late last night, after a 15+ hours of debate, the parliament voted to reject the bid to oust finance minister Uroš Čufer. The motion was filed by SDS of Janez Janša and the two basic charges against Čufer were that he backed the Bank of Slovenia plan for a “controlled liquidation” of Probanka and Factor banka, two small sort-of-investment banks which were mainly vehicles for financing ventures of their owners (although Probanka had a small contingent of “ordinary” customers) as well as the fact that he dismissed Andrej Šircelj, an SDS MP, from the board of the yet-to-become-operational Bad Assets Management Company, a.k.a. bad bank.

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Two ministers: one in resignation, the other one not so much. (photo: Aleš Černivec/Delo)

Now, the move-to-oust, or “interpelation” as it is known around here was filed some time ago and it went without saying that the SDS, which was alone in this venture with NSi and SLS watching carefully which way the wind blows, threw at Čufer everything they could get their hands on. Which mostly meant lecturing him at how he should run state finances.

Which is all fine and well, after all this is a democracy of sorts with a relatively well-thought-out system of checks and balances. The same goes for the interpelation instrument. However, what we witnessed yesterday was not so much a case of oppositional oversight as it was a degenerated filibuster where the goal was not to prevent a measure being passed but to drag the proceedings for as long as possible, hoping that somewhere along the way the coalition would drop the ball and fail to produce a majority vote. In fact, this was nothing short of a shit in political tactics. Namely, about a week ago we’ve seen practically the same approach when the parliament debated the 2014 and 2015 budgets. In a multi-day session which culminated in a Thursday all-nighter, the final vote was cast on Friday at 6 in the morning.

The good old days of touch and go

Now, all-night-sessions are not unknown in this part of the world. When shit was hitting the fan while Yugoslavia was disintegrating and the whole Slovenia situation was touch-and-go we used to see them regularly. In fact, one could argue that all-night sessions of the parliament or another high-ranking body were the hallmark of the era. And it seems as if the opposition is trying to bring back the aura of emergency and instability.

Not that there was any lack of urgency to begin with and until the budget was passed, the Bratušek administration sure as hell couldn’t be filed under “stable”. But ever since Janez Janša was toppled he was looking for ways to undermine the current government in any way possible. True, the ruling coalition is perfectly capable to undermine itself (as we’ve seen time and again in the past months) but it would appear there’s some movement in the right direction.

One could argue that Bratušek and Čufer achieved with this budget what Janša and Šušteršič couldn’t. Namely, get at least half a nod from the EU and effectively take threat of the Troika descending off the table at least temporarily. And as demonstrated in the previous post, for Janša the equation is simple: no Troika, no return to power any-time soon. And a derailed budget or a toppled finance minister are not to high a price to pay, apparently. Not to mention inevitable relegation of Slovenia to protectorate status in case the Troika materializes.

Again: Slovenia is not out of the woods yet (not even close) but a hint was given we’re on the right path. And that is not good news for Janša.

It’s about management, stupid

But as someone recently told pengovsky, this country doesn’t have as much of a financial problem as it does have a ~~leadership~~ management problem. Both in government and in business. Which is one of the reasons we find ourselves in the shit we’re in. Case in point being minister of economy and technology Stanko Stepišnik, who was forced to resign yesterday evening over a repeated issue of his tools-manufacturing company Emo Orodjarna applying for and being awarded government grants while he was in office.

Now, there’s a caveat to this: until recently, there was a strict prohibition of companies (co-)owned by public officials applying for tenders with the institutions their owners worked for. I.e.: a company a minister or a member of his family owned (at least partly) could not apply for a grant within his ministry’s purview. Some years ago there was even a complete prohibition for such companies doing any business with any government institution, but that was struck down as unconstitutional. But even this watered-down prohibitive clause was too much for some and was reduced even further by the last Janša administration (albeit at the behest of the SLS) and now stipulates only that people with a conflict of interest should remove themselves from the decision-making process.

And when it transpired that Stepišnik’s company did in fact apply for a government grant at Stepišnik’s ministry, it was all perfectly legal, since Stepišnik did in fact remove himself from the decision-making process. And yet, it failed to dawn on him that simply is not the way things should be done. It took further revelations of his company applying for additional tenders and – this clinched it – apparently falsely stating there are no possible conflicts of interest in one of the tenders for Stanko Stepišnik to finally realise he is in an unsustainable position.

However, since Stepišnik was an MP for Positive Slovenia before assuming ministerial duties, he is bound to return to take his parliamentary seat, making the situation no ~~less~~ more agreeable. Now, arguably, Stepišnik’s resignation is a good omen as it is the second minister in Bratušek administration to resign over a similar conflict of interest (Igor Maher having done so after only 12 days in office) and it shows this government does have a sense of appropriateness. Also, Stepišnik was widely tipped to be let go once PM Bratušek wins the vote of confidence, so there’s no real harm (political or otherwise) in him being replaced.

The necessary vote of confidence

But it does show that – despite the fact some people were mocking Bratušek for tying it to passing of the budget – the recent confidence vote was much more crucial than most people thought. It finally gave her the leg to stand on politically and rallied the coalition around her, at least temporarily. And it appears finance minister Čufer is one of the cornerstones of her political credibility. Which is why she took the somewhat unusual step of the PM addressing the parliament and defend her minister during an interpelation.

This, of course, did not go unnoticed and you can be sure Čufer will find himself the target of much more elaborate attacks and insinuation than just a case of a disgruntled opposition MP who – due to a legal provision, mind you – lost his 6k EUR monthly paycheck in the bad bank which came on top of his 4k monthly MP salary.

Troika Democracy And The EPP

Although there’s shit going on daily that would warrant a well aimed rant in its general direction (as always in this sorry little excuse for a country), pengovsky has a month-old axe to grind. Not surprisingly, this connects to more recent events, including the European People’s Party trying to meddle with the judicial process and demanding Janez Janša be exempt from whatever fallout (political or otherwise) there may be from the Patria Affair. But parallel to the Passion of Ivan – and very much caused by it – for the past two months or so, the political right is producing a steady stream of calls for the Troika to descend upon Slovenia as soon as possible.

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A masterpiece by Matej Avbelj, PhD (source)

Now, that Slovenia is in economic omnishambles is hardly news anymore. But just as they have done for years, part of the political class is still refusing to recognise the reality and is playing hide-and-seek regardless of the cost. You see, back in 2008, when crisis loomed large on the horizon Janez Janša in the last days of his 2004-2008 government famously said that “only an aspirin is needed while the left-wing wants to prescribe an antibiotic to the Slovene economy”.

Well, five years later Slovene economy is in the middle of open-heart surgery while Janez Janša, since conviced of corruption (appeal pending) is saying that we’d all be better off if we just let the Troika handle things from now on. This, of course, has precious little to do with the economy (of which Janša still doesn’t understand didly squat) but rather with that elusive thingie called election victory.

Namely, it goes without saying that Slovenia’s formal appeal for a full bailout would most likely mean yet another early elections, which Janša might actually have a chance of winning (more on the current public sentiment some other time). But to do so, he’d have to paint the current government as a) incompetent and b) illegitimate. In this enterprise he is helped by a plethora of people of various intellectual prowess, not in the least by Matej Avbelj PhD, dean of a small Faculty for State and European Studies which – contrary to its name – mostly offers courses in public administration. A month or so ago Avbelj published a column on a law-oriented portal titled “Troika as a Catalyst for Democracy” (Google translate here).

In the text, Avbelj basically argues (from a supposedly academic point of view) that Slovenia is a state, captured by special interest and dark powers and that elections don’t really count for anything. “Anything” in this case of course translates to “Janša in power”. Because even when Janša was in power and Slovenia witnessed an unprecedented blitz against the media, economy and other sectors, thus paving the way for many a folly we witnessed in the past ten years, the man still claimed Slovenia is run by communists and if he couldn’t find them it just meant he wasn’t looking hard enough. Thus, even when Janša is/was in power, there’s an ongoing conspiracy against him, preventing him from doing the good things.

Well, the reality is there is no conspiracy. Whatever Janša was doing in power wasn’t good on the whole, but he was good at doing it. Sure, this can be said for a couple of other administrations as well, but the difference is that Janša was and still is motivated mostly by perpetuating and increasing his power, politically and otherwise. In this, he often resorted to abusing democratic instruments and occasionally tinkered with undemocratic ones, claiming to have “protected democracy” all along. This goes for calling for Troika as well.

Avbelj, in his texts, assists Janša in this enterprise. The Troika may be many things. but is not a tool of or for democracy. It is comprised of representatives of institutions whose democratic potential ranges from “miniscule” to “none”. The European Commission is a body agreed upon by the EU member states and although approved by the European Parliament, it is hardly subject to a serious checks-and-balances mechanism. The ECB is a monetary, not a representative institution. The IMF doubly so.

Secondly, the way the Troika operates is anything but consensual. In its purest form – as witnessed in Greece time and time again – it is a Godfather-type ensemble which simply dictates terms (how does one say “we’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse” in German?) And even if Slovenia were subject to Troika-light, things would still be a couple of orders of magnitude uglier than they are now.

One of the effects being that it wouldn’t matter a pair of fetid dingo’s kidney who is in power. Even today Slovenia is reportedly (and those reports have not been denied) under daily scrutiny from EC experts (again: unelected!) and right now to a large extend ours is only a pretend economic and political sovereignty. But if the Troika is hell, then Slovenia is purgatory at the moment. We can still hope to get out. With the Troika in the house, not so much.

And so, the logical conclusion is that Janez Janša will stop at nothing to regain power, even if only as a puppet leader with no autonomy whatsoever. Such is the lust – or rather – the need for power. Because Janša as PM stands a much lesser chance of having a verdict against him being upheld than citizen Janša does. This, at least, is the subtext of yesterday’s resolution by the EPP on Slovenia which among other things states that Janša should not be excluded from the political process until final verdict is passed.

In reality, the political star of Janez Janša is fading fast. It is, however, very worrying that a generation of intelectuals has been bread that will happily continue politics done Janša’s way. The only difference being that with him it was a survival tactic, whereas they’ve objectified it into a legitimate political tactic.

EDIT: only minutes ago Janša suggested the government “avoid the Troika by requesting a bank bailout”. QED as far as I’m concerned.

Mutiny On The Bounty

Oh, boy… Contrary to what pengovsky predicted two months ago, Ljubljana mayor Zoran Janković on Wednesday did in fact agree to run for president of Positive Slovenia, throwing a huge wrench in what was already a barely functional political environment. A shitstorm of epic proportions ensued which unmasked a huge rift within the party and threatened, well, omnishambles. These were temporarily put off by what for all intents and purposes was a below-the-belt move by party executive committee to postpone the congress until shortly before parliamentary elections. Which amounts to an in-party mutiny and drives a wedge between Zoran Janković and the party he founded in 2011 led to victory in parliamentary elections only seven weeks later.

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Zoran Janković vs. Alenka Bratušek (not an actual representation of roles ;))

Janković went all in on Wednesday and said he will stand in party elections, thus going head-to-head against Bratušek who confirmed her running some time ago. He also rejected speculations he would back down at the very last moment and went on to state that he sees no reason why junior coalition parties would quit the coalition if he were to return to the helm of PS. Well, maybe he didn’t, but Lukšič, Virant and Erjavec sure as hell did. But more on that in a moment.

PM Bratušek was on an official visit to Serbia on Wednesday and refused to comment on Janković move, but come Thursday, she was all like Cary Elwes in Robin Hood: Men in Tights and published a written statement saying that time for play is over and told him to bring it on, saying she will quit as PM if she loses party elections (Google translate here).

The stage was set for a showdown of epic proportions. Janković’s move was either motivated by one of those Tom Cruise moments or by the notion that he has little left to lose and decided that if he has to go, he will take the party with him. The former would go against him being suicidal, especially since he did hint at a possible “third option” a couple of weeks ago, namely, his retirement some time soon. He wasn’t really serious about it, but the mere mentioning of it suggest that he did take it into consideration.

Additionally, he apparently calculated the junior coalition parties have attached themselves to enough gravy-trains to continue in a Janković-led coalition rather than to quit their respective honey-pots, regardless of their insistence in Spring that Positive Slovenija is only acceptable as a coalition partner sans Janković. Furthermore, he figured (not entirely unreasonably, it must be said) that most of PS senior figures are somehow indebted to him politically. Lastly, he figured that he could easly sway the vote in the party Congress his way. Well, turns out he was right only on the last count.

immediately after his announcement on Wednesday all three junior coalition parties said that Janković as PS president means gave over for the ruling coalition which – by extension – meant early elections within a matter of months. The only coalition party that could reap some sort of benefits from this scenario are the Social Democrats which have seen a steady streak of top ranks in public opinion polls. Thus, even if DL and DeSUS would back down on their demands, the SD would almost certainly call it quits. Which why all three junior parties were watching each other, which would flinch first. With the congress only 17 days away on Wednesday, a proper flip-flop on the issue would be hard to execute.

OT: since a fallen government would most probably result in The Troika descending from Brussels-am-Berlin, the election result would matter about as much as a pair of fetid dingo’s kidneys, but I’m sure few people even considered that.

So, this was miscalculation numero uno, not unlike the one Janković made in 2011, when he was negotiating a coalition on his own and wouldn’t cave in to personal vanities of other party leaders. It was this clash of egos that ultimately cost him his premiership and that nearly caused a total political breakdown today. Namely, his running for party president also flew in the face of those who threw him under the bus in late July. He was challenging them as much as he was challenging PM Bratušek and somehow thought his move alone would sway those still on the fence to his side. But again, since Bratušek upped the ante a day later and told him in no uncertain terms that she will only play this game is she heads both the party and the government, a lot of people suddenly stood to lose quite a lot if the government would indeed fall. Not to mention the prospect of yet another election or that of a Brussels intervention. Janković was forcing them into a battle no-one really wanted to fight. Miscalculation numero dos.

And yet, if the battle were to be fought, Janković would probably win hands-down. In this, he was correct. It goes beyond saying that the one thing Alenka Bratušek lacks is charisma. She is a technocrat. A bean-counter, if you want to be unkind to her. If she were pitted against Jay-Z on open stage, she might as well throw in the towel (which reportedly she thought of doing immediately after Zoki’s announcement). For Janković on stage is a sight to see. Regardless of whether one likes him or hates him, one has to admit that he can work the crowd. Especially if the crowd wants to be worked. And congress delegates aren’t exactly a hostile bunch. No-one expected the PS congress to be like the 14th congress of the Yugoslav communists, when the Party fell apart.

This, apparently was a fact recognised by PS ExCom which on Thursday afternoon decided to pull the rug from under Zoran Janković entirely and postpone the congress until some time before elections. Since there is no definitive date for those, the congress is as good as canceled.

But as things stand now, Zoran Janković chipped off yet another piece of what little authority Alenka Bratušek has in Slovene politics. To an extent, one can understand him. He was increasingly sidelined by his own party and no doubt saw it as going beyond the terms of his mutually agreed “freezing of party leadership”. Not the sort of person to take being left out of the loop lightly, he tried to engineer a spectacular come-back.

That he was wrong to do so, can be gauged by the simplest of methods: several prominent SDS members were supporting his bid, saying that a party leadership should be contested in an open manner. Which is all fine and well, but SDS is approving of developments in other parties only when it suits them and they too saw Janković returning to head the PS as a short-cut to early elections which they would probably win.

With these developments, the separation of Zoran Janković and Alenka Bratušek is complete and the upside for her is that no one in their right mind can now claim that hers is a puppet government controlled by Zoran Janković. In fact, it was all a bit like Admiral Roebuck versus M in Tomorrow Never Dies (at 4:10). And although the pundits say she missed her chance to establish herself as a political leader, she has only now opened the possibility to do so.

Namely, both JZ and AB remain candidates when the congress finally convenes, but by then Slovenia will either be under a Troika administration or will have fixed its finances enough to start breathing again which would give Alenka Bratušek a leg to stand on politically. Curiously enough, in all this conundrum the only support (if you can call it that) she got was from the European Commission which said that now is not the time to experiment politically. Translation: they need an operative government to work with/dictate terms to.

As for Positive Slovenia, things do not bode well. The ripple effect will no doubt be felt down the party ranks and some serious work will have to be done to repair the rift in the coming months. If that is at all possible. The very fact that congress was postponed means that party senior figures have not (yet?) won the hearts and minds of rank-and-file members. Some time in the future, there will be hell to pay. It isn’t entirely clear who will pick up the tab, but it should be noted that the mutiny on the Bounty was eventually put down.

PM Bratušek Calls A Confidence Vote For a Political Hat-Trick

As hinted at in pengovsky’s last post, which – admittedly – was published shamefully long ago, PM Alenka Bratušek is apparently going to move for a vote of confidence in the coming days. That she is going to tie the confidence vote to passing of the 2014 budget, made most of the pundits declare this as eyewash, since the budget is usually hammered out during tense intra-coalition negotiations and if you make it that far, you’re pretty much home safe. However, in case of PM Bratušek, this is only half (of a third of) the story.

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PM Alenka Bratušek (source)

As pengovsky noted some time ago, the budget is half-guesswork, half-black-magic and all politics. In case of Slovenian 2014 budget, this means steering between a drive to raise taxes, a rush to lower expenditure and a dive to avoid the troika (yes, it’s that time of the year again). What Bratušek and her finance minister Čufer did was apparently something in between, looking to raise additional EUR 500 million in a EUR 9 billion budget with a set of new property taxes and decoupling of income-tax breaks and inflation (where your level on non-taxed earnings rose automatically as the inflation rose). On the other hand, they’re trying to slash expenditures, even in the science and education sector while apparently allocating funds for infrastructure projects. Thirdly (and this is their primary short-term goal) they’re waiting for the final approval from “Brussels-am-Berlin” to start the bad bank, which is supposed to ease the credit crunch. Not that anyone is holding their breath. Translation: Surviving 2014 is the main priority, everything else (including any meaningful growth) is secondary.

It seems the coalition parties sort of underst-ood that and will support the budget despite heavy posturing, especially by DeSUS and SD. In this respect the confidence vote can be considered as simply more posturing. But if one takes a look at what PM Bratušek was and still is going through politically, the confidence vote is the long-overdue curved ball she desperately needed to throw.

Just take a look at the Gašpar Gašpar Mišič business. Her hand was forced in that particular mudfight and as pengovsky told the European Voice, it went against her politically, since she tried to block Gašpar Mišič’s appointment as CEO of Port of Koper, but failed. That alone damaged her position quite heavily, not to mention the rest of the coalition which was crying bloody murder over political appointments in state-owned firms (yes, there is a lot of irony in this sentence). That SD, DeSUS and DL were more into undermining her than actually giving a pair of fetid dingo’s kindeys over Gašpar Mišič is now obvious now. Namley in the wake of the appointment SOD, the state fund which owns much of the port, was clamouring for shareholder meeting where enough supervisory board members of the company would be replaced to have Gašpar Gašpar Mišič removed from the position. And yet, the man is still head of the Port of Koper. You do the math.

Furthermore there is the looming party congress for Positive Slovenia, now scheduled for mid-October, where the commentariat is going ga-ga over the remote possibility of Zoran Janković running for party chieftain yet again. In pengovsky’s opinion Zoki is not going to run, but that did not stop a group of party members to nominate him for the position. Of course, this means nothing if Janković doesn’t agree to the nomination (he has about a week to do so) and it is quite possible that he is trying to make life difficult for those within the party who are side-lining him. On the other hand, the party is going to have a mail-in elections, with results being declared on the day of the congress. This, apparently, was done to prevent Janković taking the stage at the 11th hour, swaying the crown in situ and make a killing. It seems Janković understands this and is only making a nuisance of himself. You know, just to sour the milk a bit. That he is officially still mum on the issue only further strengthens the point.

Thus tying the confidence vote to an agreed-upon budget is a rather cunning move. There is zero chance of coalition parties bailing out, while at the same time PM Alenka Bratušek and her government get a renewed oath of allegiance and at least temporarily closes ranks. Not to mention the fact that upon entering office, Bratušek said she will call a confidence vote within a year. What we have here, is in fact a neat little political hat-trick.

There is an art, rather, a knack tp calling a confidence vote. Former PM Janez Janša knew how to do it. And whoever advises Bratušek politicaly, is pretty good at this game, too.

Shipping Shipping News: Why PM Bratušek Should Demand a Confidence Vote

Pengovsky is en vacances these days, which sort of explains why the trickle of posts, scarce as it is, dried up temporarily. Sure, there is stuff in the pipeline, including the upheaval in the local Roman Catholic Church, which was beheaded by pope Francis for doing exactly the opposite of what Jesus did in the Temple. However, another, even more urgent issue exploded on Monday.

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Gašpar Gašpar Mišič, a.k.a. GGM (photo Boris Šuligoj/Delo)

Gašpar Gašpar Mišič, former state secretary in the office of PM Alenka Bratušek, before that an MP for Positive Slovenia and before that a real-estate magnate in the Koper area was appointed CEO of Port of Koper (Luka Koper), Slovenia’s only cargo port. Now popularly known as “Luka Luka Koper”.

Luka Luka Koper

As a result, about three-quarters of the country went apeshit, the coalition parties are rattling their sabres with SD leader Igor Lukšič talking openly about quitting the government while the protest movement announced a new instalment of the uprising for 4 September. However, despite all the protestations, rest assured that the one thing we will not see, is collapse of the government.

To be sure, the entire episode of picking new CEO of Luka Koper was shambolic, to say the least. Under “temporary management” for some time, the company was still reeling from a series of bad investments made by the management installed by the first Janša administration (2004 – 2008).

After Zoran Janković won the 2011 elections, Gašpar Gašpar Mišič, Zoki’s point-man in the region, made it no secret he was eyeing the top job at Luka Koper. The brazen directness of is ambition made a lot of people balk, especially since shipping and/or logistics apparently are not his forte, despite the fact that he holds a rank of deck officer in the merchant marine, having graduated from Naval Faculty. But he found his success in real estate, making his ambition even more brazen. With advent of the Bratušek administration, the flame of Mišič’s ambition was reignited, especially after he quit his MP post to become state secretary in the office of the prime minister.

But as Bratušek and Janković fell out, he was increasingly seen as Janković’s man on the Bratušek team, making life difficult for the PM politically, as he made it clear that in a potential Bratušek-Janković showdown, his loyalties lay with the latter. Which is also why Mišič is now seen as bringing the company into Janković’s sphere of influence.

If it were only that simple

What we have here, is (at least) a five-way match for control of state-owned assets, where in the finest tradition of partitocracy members of (first) supervisory boards and (second) management boards are picked chiefly on their party loyalty, whereas professional ability is a bonus. And just to make sure it don’t get too dull, there’s the Koper municipality, whose mayor Boris Popovič is following his own agenda as well as the increasingly cold relations between Janković and Bratušek.

Thus a relatively low-key appointment became a high-octane political feature which forces many a hand and will have political ramifications one way or another. No danger of the government collapsing, though, despite some heavy rhetoric by all junior coalition parties. DL of Gregor Virant and DeSUS of Karl Erjavec can simply not afford an election right now, while SD, although scoring high in the polls, is positioning itself quite nicely in state-owned companies and is also quite bound to the TEŠ6 project. In other words, every coalition party stands to lose a lot if the government were to fall.

Who backed whom

Perhaps the wildest of conspiracy theories floating around (and there are quite a few to choose from) stated that Jay-Z and AB were in fact in collusion, the rift between them only feigned to disguise their real intentions. Now, were this even remotely true, it would require an extraordinary amount of skill and coordination, not just between the (ostensibly) former leader of Positive Slovenia and his successor, but between their respective operatives. It would also mean their rift was put aside at least temporarily. The way Slovenian politics stands today, neither are possible. Janković never forgets and rarely forgives, but even if that condition would be fulfilled, there would have still been the impossible task of pulling off a stunt like that. With precious few expcetions, the current players in the political arena simply do not have either the mileage or the wit for double play. A wise man once said that one should never put down to malice what one can to incompetence. Simple. And somewhat sad.

On the other hand, it seems the Koper Big Kahuna, mayor Boris “Popo” Popovič had a role to play in this charade. Judging by the flurry of activity of PR pros Popo hired recently and who were not unsympathetic to Mišič taking over the port, the Koper mayor is dancing the Mipos dance of Joy right now.

Now, whether or not Zoran Janković played a role is uncertain. Despite him making loud noises over who should run and oversee funds controlling state assets, his “suggestions” were largely ignored or overruled. He had made his displeasure known, but it begs the question, if he was unable to impress his will directly on the government, how would he have been able to control events further down the food chain?

One possible answer is that Zoki and Popo are tighter than it would appear at first sight. Also, since the newly minted CEO of Luka Koper professed his allegiance to Janković time and again (after all it was Mišič who coined that ill-thought-out phrase about Janković being able to generate growth even in Antarctica, earning PS the moniker “Penguins”), it would indeed seem the Ljubljana mayor can’t be very far from this story.

But even if that is true (and it is by no means a given), Zoki has seen too many defections from his camp to consider the matter solved. More often than not, he has seen the defector wait until he/she got what they wanted and then turn their back on him. Case in point being Renata Brunskole MP, who – after switching from SD to ss to secure another term in the parliament – threw Janković under the bus the moment a push came to a shove. So it is quite possible that having gotten what they wanted, both Boris Popovič and Gašpar Gašpar Mišič will start putting a daylight between Janković and themselves.

Vote of confidence

But it is PM Bratušek who is facing a real problem. What has happened on Monday, was a direct defiance of her wishes by a senior party figure and (nominally, at least), her close aide. Namely, Bratušek publicly tried to stay out of this story for as long as possible, but ultimately her hand was forced and she had to say something. Amazingly, she admitted that corporate governance of state-owned companies is a joke more often than not. She didn’t do it in as many words, but said politics has too much of a hand in picking managers and supervisors. She added it is inappropriate for a senior civil servant to make the switch just like that and hinted at sacking Mišič who in turn quit of his own accord.

At that moment, a week ago, it seemed as if Mišič’s ambitions were curbed, but when the supervisory board confirmed him as CEO on Monday with the president of the board doing an about face on the issue and providing the necessary vote for a 5:4 majority. All of a sudden, Bratušek found herself in a tight spot, having first been prodded by her coalition partners and ultimately defied by a high-profile member of her own party.

As a result, she finds herself heavily undermined in a position that was more than just a bit shaky to begin with. In fact, with the Mišič stunt, Bratušek is three-quaters of a way to becoming a lame-duck prime minister. If she does nothing, she will lose what little authority she has left and as a result the Mišič-like stunts will be repeated over and over again and she will preside over people with vested interest from all parties gobble up what is left of Slovenian economy. True, there is the danger of this happening anyway, but if you gotta go, you might as well go with style. And if AB wants to retain (let alone regain) her footing, there is only one thing she can and should do: she should go to the parliament and demand a vote of confidence.

This is the only possible way she can (perhaps) contain her coalition partners whose appetite for control of state assets has just been whetted beyond anything we’ve seen to date. Ditto for elements of her own party. Additionally, with this she will pre-empt any loose talk of junior partners quitting the coalition (lest they be granted additional turfs) and re-establish herself just enough to come down hard on Mišič. Failing that, she might as well throw in the towel now.

It’s like Danica Simšič all over again

There is historic precedent to all of this. Way back in 2002, Danica Simšič of what is today SD was – against all expectations – elected mayor of Ljubljana. Hip, hip, hooray and all that jazz, but the problem was the left-wing coalition that ruled the city had other plans and was hoping Vika Potočnik of LDS would retain the mayorship. As a result, Simšič soon found herself without the political support of her own party, let alone the coalition, but instead of resigning, she pressed on, soon losing all grip on the situation and finding herself being played time and time again by her own people, to the very bitter end (that is, to the landslide victory of Zoran Janković in 2006).

Therefore, the only thing PM Bratušek can do now is to call the various bluffs and put her cards on the table. In this, she must also be prepared to lose. But there is no disgrace in losing (more or less) honourably. Knowing that you should do something, but can’t bring yourself to do it is, however, mighty bad form. Case in point being the incumbent president, who back in his PM days knew he should quit and go to the polls, but couldn’t.

State ownership just went out the window

There is one thing, however, that may have went beyond the point of no return: after the Gašpar Gašpar Mišič episode, where everyone was/is locked in some kind of a Mexican standoff, it becoming increasingly hard to argue in favour of any kind of state ownership. Not because the state would be a bad owner per se, but because – in Slovenia at least – state ownership continues to be the mud-pit of ineptitude and special interest.

After the dust settles, we’ll be lucky of we can keep the basic infrastructure of this country in taxpayers’ hands.

Positive Discharge

Recently, Slovenian media widely reported of a rift in Positive Slovenia (PS), the senior coalition party. Both print and electronic media were awash with reports of sparks flying between PM Alenka Bratušek and Ljubljana mayor Zoran Janković during a party huddle some three weeks ago.

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WIZJGTD – What Is Zoran Janković Going To Do? (source: The Firm ™)

According to Delo (Slovenian only), Janković, unhappy with being sidelined within the party, went head to head with Bratušek over how much extra money city of Ljubljana would get in the budget balancing act (which has since been passed). However, Bratušek apparently told him that “how much” actually means “if any”. Apparently this precipitated and angryish exchange and forced a roll-call in the party council where a large majority sided with the PM.

The Clash

The allegations of party in-fighting were dismissed publicly and interpreted only as a “spirited debate”, but it did not escape pengovsky’s attention that Renata Brunskole MP, who actively courted Janković to enter the national race in 2011 and even split from SD to facilitate this, basically hung Janković out to dry. She told the media mayors often have different views of state budget thus in effect withdrawing her support for Janković. Not totally unexpected, by the way, since she apparently doesn’t blink twice when switching allegiances suits her immediate political needs. But still, something Janković will not forget easily.

After allegations of a party rift came to light, Janković sought to play down the whole thing, claiming he supported the budget rebalancing act all along and that he believes Alenka Bratušek is an excellent PM. Conspicuously, he said nothing about her as party president, only saying that we will decide on whether he’ll run for party chieftain some time until autumn.

Thus the question which causes many a talking head to predict yet another installment of the “hot political autumn” (the classic and probably most abused idiom in Slovene political lingo) therefore is, whether Jay-Z is going to run for president of Positive Slovenia during their September huddle.

Option One

There are two options, obviously, one more likely than the other. Option One: Janković runs for head of PS, Bratušek as per her earlier stated intentions does not put up a fight, Zoki gets elected head of the party (again), all hell breaks loose within the coalition, early elections are called, cue the Apocalypse.

Now, this scenario has a slight problem: it is way too straightforward. If current ratings are anything to go by, the only two parties which might be interested in (yet another) early elections are Social Democrats of Igor Lukšič and SDS of Janez Janša. The latter perhaps even more so since they are in opposition with Ivan basically hiding under a rock somewhere, save occasional sightings on Party meets and via Twitter. Janša’s political star is fading fast courtesy of the anti-graft report, a gift, by the way, that keeps on giving.

On the other hand, early elections might look appealing to Lukšič (his party secretary-general tweeted as much), since they do offer a chance to mitigate the 2011 ass-whooping the voters served to Borut Pahor and come out on top. With SD being the only coalition party that has both adequate reach and ground network, that may even be doable, especially if they manage to pin all the unpopular things of the Bratušek administration to the PS.

But Lukšič might face an unexpected problem: his party. Specifically, party heavyweights who have too much vested interest in this government continuing, or – at the very least – not having yet another government come in and running the danger of shaking things up. This includes (but is not limited to) the faction(s) supporting the massive headache that is the TEŠ6 power plant in Šoštanj. If too many key SD people became too cosy, early elections might prove to be a bridge too far for Lukšič.

But even so, calling early elections is not exactly a walk in the park. Even if SD quits the coalition due to Janković comeback, PM Bratušek might try to continue with a minority government. Namely, despite Karl Erjavec of DeSUS and Gregor Virant of DL professing their intention to vacate the coalition immediately if Zoki gets back in the game, they both stand to lose plenty. And while DeSUS can still be counted on making it above the 4% threshold on election day, DL is all but finished and the further away the election day is, the better.

Enter Kučan

But this is the less likely scenario. Apart from Janković’s insistence that he never really quit as party president (but merely “freezing” his position, pending a party vote), the only thing that goes in favour of Zoki’s mounting a leadership bid is former president Milan Kučan saying in a recent interview that he ought not to.

That’s right. Some days ago Kučan, commonly seen as Janković’s mentor, gave an interview to a TV station in his native Prekmurje region saying “if Janković can not lead his party due to corruption charges – and it is my belief he can not – then the same goes for a president of any other party, regardless of the support within the party ranks” (full video here, in Slovenian).

Now, Kučan obviously drew a parallel between charges against Janković and Janša, both implicated in reports by the anti-graft commission. Not only did Kučan say Janković shouldn’t lead the PS anymore (thus implicitly supporting PM Bratušek), he also drew a parallel between JJ and Jay-Z, something the latter has tried very hard to dismiss ever since the reports were published.

The pundits went into a frenzy, interpreting this as Kučan throwing Janković under a bus, the final nail in Janković’s political coffin and so on ad nauseam. However, Zoran Janković didn’t get where he is today by taking orders from other people. In fact, while he has always maintained he has deep respect for Kučan, he has defied him politically before. Apparently, Kučan advised him against running for mayor in 2006, but Janković did and won in a landslide. Similarly, the former president apparently privately advised Janković not to go national in 2011 election, but Janković did, again winning in a landslide, but ultimately failing to clinch the PM job. After Janković announced his bid amid much media furuore, Kučan supported him, but noted that he did so for “different reasons”.

Anyways, point being that Kučan lost control of Janković years ago – if he had any in the first place, that is. Also, history shows Janković reacts badly when being told what to do and is liable to do exactly the opposite, just to prove his point. But again, the probability of anything like this happening is, for the moment at least, fairly small.

At this junction, a word of caution is necessary: With Janković, any decision he might or might not take is of academic value at best until a week or so before deadline. As a politician, he often acts instictively, making any sort of rational analysis of his actions useless. During the years, he has toned down this approach significantly, especially after the government-forming debacle in late 2011, but as he often says, he’s too old to change.

Option Two

In pengovsky’s opinion, Janković will (cue Option Two) not run for president of Positive Slovenia. Even more, there is a high level of probability he will not run for a third term as mayor of Ljubljana, either. For some time now, Janković has been dropping hints about “a new mayor and a new team” every now and then. And while he only recently initiated a massive push to upgrade Ljubljana’s ailing infrastructure with a price tag north of 200 million euro, there is a certain lukewarmness in Jankovič’s demeanor.

While this could all be put down to pre-summer exhaustion, it should be noted that municipal elections are slightly more than a year away and that while all other parties in Ljubljana have thusfar failed to produce a strong challenger to Janković, his armor has been more than just slightly dented in the past two years. And, as we have seen time and again, to win an election, you needn’t be the best candidate. You just need to make the fewest mistakes.

2014 is also the year of European elections and it is unlikely the electorate would look kindly upon a political player that would bring them yet another trek to the polling stations, despite the fact that Janković at the helm of PS would probably mean a boost in public-opinion polls for PS which as things stand now, continually scores only high single digits. Despite being instinctive about politics (or precisely because of that), Janković is not suicidal.

In pengovsky’s view this computes into Jay-Z not running for head of the party, while his running for a third term as the mayor of Slovenian capital should not be taken for granted. Sparks were flying, but the lights didn’t go out.