With two days left until the 2026 local elections in Slovenia, it is high time pengovsky got in on the action. And for the first time in 20 years, Ljubljana is where it is at. By the looks of it, mayor Zoran Janković will likely be forced into a run-off, and the guy doing the forcing is none other than Levica co-boss Zohran Mamdani Luka Mesec.
Admittedly, back in July pengovsky speculated that former PM Tone Rop might be the one to unseat Janković. Especially after the parking ordinance fuck-up that kept plaguing the mayor throughout summer months. But Rop never caught fire (more below) and this meant Mesec was alone in the serious challenger lane. And yet, it may not be enough.
The 2026 local elections really crept up on pengovsky. One day he was writing up the looks Vučić’s ouster caused in Slovenian politics, and the next day we’re already casting early votes. Sometimes sucks. If you’d like to see pengovsky do more writing and less adulting, buy him a coffee or two.
Election cycles are weird. Long-standing politicos look unbeatable until they no longer are and their entire world comes crashing down. And when mayor Janković fumbled the parking ordinance shituation while simultaneously battling the fallout from the Black Cube affair, where his name was being mentioned, he suddenly seemed very much beatable.
Fumbling Rop
For a while it seemed as if Tone Rop would be the one to successfully challenge mayor Janković. His name was floated early and often enough for the idea to gain traction even among the insiders. But then Rop and his team fumbled the roll-out and failed to seize the initiative.
Some-fucking-how, a whole lot of people around the would-be challenger knew what needs to be done but no-one was really keen on doing it. Which is what happens if you build a campaign that’s heavy on strategists but light on grunts (see also Prebilič, Vladimir).
Things got even more fucktangular when it turned out that Rop doesn’t really have the name recognition many people assumed he had. pengovsky included. But instead on getting the man out there in the field, the campaign started debating whether Urška Klakočar Zupančič should enter the mayoral race.
Enter Mamdani wannabe
In the end, that didn’t happen, both because Rop really wanted to be mayor, and UKZ really didn’t. Not in the least, because she has her eyes set on the presidential election next year. Or so the rumour has it. Be that as it may, Rop campaign was losing precious time in getting the candidate out there in the field, which in turn opened things up for Luka Mesec.
At first, Levica co-honcho was sort of non-committal about a mayoral run. Allegedly, his primary motivation was to score as many seats in the city council as possible and force Zoran Janković into some sort of a coalition deal. This would establish Levica as a gravity centre for the political left in Ljubljana. In terms of a long-term strategy, it was a pretty sound one.
Then, at some point in late summer/early autumn, polls started showing Mesec having a comfortable lead over all other mayoral candidates (in case you’re wondering, the ticker stopped at fifteen). Poll after poll, he was comfortably hitting high-teens-to-low-twenties in percentage points. And it was around that point that Levica co-chairmanperson really started thinking that maybe he can win this thing.
Can he? Well, not this week he can’t.
It’s beginning to look a lot like run-off
Polling in the last couple of days has shown that Janković is enjoying a comfortable 11-point lead over Mesec. But with mayor Zoran polling at 33 percent and would-be Zohran at 22, there’s a whole lot of votes that separates either of the two from the top prize. Assuming these numbers are in the ballpark at the very least, a second round is inevitable.
Which would be the time in almost a quarter of a century. And forcing Zoran Janković into a second round is an achievement unto itself, both symbolically and in practice.
The former, because Zoki is not really the patient type and wants things done his way, now. That’s the approach he basically trademarked as Mercator CEO and that’s the approach he was elected on five consecutive times.
The latter, because Zoki is not really the patient type and wants things done his way, now. Which means that he might actually struggle in a coalition environment (see 2011, parliamentary election of).
City council coalition
It is at this point that Tone Rop, and Klemen Boštjančič of Gibanje Svoboda come into play. Both liberal politicians are former finance ministers and have extensive mileage in deliberative and executive bodies. And if Janković does get the nod for the sixth time in the row, Luka Mesec will probably join Rop and Boštjančič as a check on the old man’s virtually limitless power in Ljubljana.
More importantly, in this scenario, Levica, GS and LZL (Lista za Ljubljano – Rop’s and UKZ’s party) council members will be far less likely to be wooed and/or bullied into supporting Janković’s projects, should the incumbent mayor keep the job.
As pengovsky is fond of remarking, a week in politics is a long time. Two weeks, doubly so. Which means that a lot can happen between now and 29 November, when the second round of voting is scheduled. But the sheer volume of things that must break in favour of Luka Mesec is staggering.
Assuming that 20- and 30-odd percent for Mesec and Janković are their respective baselines., the two run-off candidates will have to split the remaining 45 percent between them. Of the 13 also-rans, Klemen Boštjančič and Tone Rop will have the largest pool of votes to tap into.
Janković and Mesec chasing 50 percent
Again, taking the latest polls as a benchmark, the two liberals cumulatively draw about 14 percent of the vote. If these votes went to Janković in their entirety, they would put the mayor very close to the 50% threshold. Possibly even over it, should right-wing voters decide to sit out the second round.
Luka Mesec, on the other hand, needs not only all of the non-Janković liberal vote, but also all of the Pirate party and their leader Jasmin Feratović, as well as moronic influencer Aleksandar Repić. Both are polling at around 6 percent. This tallies to about 48% and (again) assuming a slightly depressed turnout on account of right-wing voters being no-shows, it could put Mesec over the top.
Obviously, things will not as clear cut. First or all, pengovsky suspects the non-Janković liberal vote will go both ways. Specifically, that most of Rop’s vote will go to Mesec. After all, these people are in the market for a new mayor. But at the same time, most Boštjančič votes should go to Janković, since GS voters are voting for the party man, and failing that, the next most similar candidate on the ballot.
Pirate Party and that attention whore
Things are even murkier with Feratović and Repić, both of whom poll inexplicably high. On the face of it, Feratović’s Pirate party addresses many of the same issues Mesec and Levica do. But their take is much more libertarian and/or utilitarian, so we can’t just put all of their votes in Mesec’s column. Some, but not all.
As for Repić, pengovsky is still convinced that the Instagram attention whore is in the race for shits, giggles and possible monetisation. I mean, this dude intentionally put himself very near the centre of controversy, where an unknown perpetrator was filming Luka Mesec’s apartment with a drone several nights in a row.
Obviously, Repić denies it was him, but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, don’t be fooled, it really is a duck. The obnoxious little prick has no platform to speak of, and is quite literally engagement farming his entire race on his various platforms. And when he will finally be out of the game, his followers/voters will either stay home of flock to the next guy who provides them with cheap thrills. Of the two remaining candidates, Janković is far more capable of providing cheap thrills.
Which brings pengovsky to the final point: the right-wing vote, which splits down three ways. On one end, and by far the loudest of them all, is Aleš Primc of Darkness. You will remember him from such all-time classics such as anti-LGBT crusades, anti-abortion activism, or his early crowd pleaser, denying IVF to single women. Lately, this religious zealot has reinvented himself at a lone Christian nationalist crusader in the mold of the infamous Mihael Jarc.
SDS: Better the Janković you know
Primc is currently polling at 4% not really, mayorship material, but enough to win two or three seats in the city council. That is just slightly under SDS candidate Aleš Vrhovec who polls at around 5%.
Now, the Party has long had a problem attracting talent in Ljubljana politics. This was even more pronounced since Anže Logar quit and took half of SDS Ljubljana outfit with him. Which is why pengovsky is actually amazed the remnants of SDS were able to recruit an normal candidate. The problem is that “normal” lane is pretty much taken by everyone else and Party rank and file don’t care for normal.
And then there’s NSi+, whereas the other + (SLS) decided to go solo, but fielded only a a list of city council candidates without entering the mayoral race.
All of this combined puts the entirety of the right-wing vote in Ljubljana somewhere between 10 and 15 percent. And if these guys don’t stay home in the second round, they are much more likely to vote for the left-wing capitalist devil they know, rather than for a than a democratic socialist. Especially since there were some signals lately, that the SDS politburo might actually be OK with it.
Zoran vs Zohran
So, going into round two, neither Janković nor Mesec have a clear path to victory. But Zoki’s fundamentals are much stronger, whereas just about everything needs to break in Young Mamdani’s favour for him to win all the marbles.
