Slovenia | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

Zee Germans (a.k.a.: I Know What You Did Last Summer)

As predicted, the transcripts of Janša’s confabulation with Sanader are about to surface. But according to this report by RTV SLO’s website (a state television!), which quotes POP TV (the competition!) it was actually the German intelligence service BND which eavesdropped on Janša and Sanader and then told Slovene intelligence SOVA what it stumbled upon, and it was that which SOVA’s then-director (the top spy) Iztok Podbregar reported to the then-PM Tone Rop.

Protection from what? Zee Germans?!? (a clip from Snatch)

Now, why is this important?

1.) Because Podbregar is finally due to testify before the parliamentary Committee for Inteligence Services Oversight, where he is largely expected to confirm what BND has apparently publicly confirmed. This is a very safe position for Podbregar, because the topic of his testimony is now a matter of public record and he will not be furhter endangering the already strained relations between SOVA and BND which were cooperating closely in hunting down Radovan Karadžić.

2.) Beacuse it gives more credibility to statements of former PM Tone Rop, who maintained that transcripts of the conversation(s) between Janša and Sanader did exist, even if they were removed from SOVA’s files. You can always count on the Germans to keep a file on everything.

3.) Because it signals a shift in Slovene-German relations. If the reports are correct then you can be sure that the BND did’t leak this information on its own, but got clearance from someone very high in the German administration. And that should set off Janša‘s klaxons. Not having Chancellor Angela Merkel‘s good ear in a period just prior to Slovenia’s EU presidency spells grief in three month’s time, this in turn meaning that something must have gone completely wrong in relaltionship between Ljubljana and Berlin, especially since both Janša and Merkel belong to the same European People’s Party.

4.) Given the above, one starts to wonder about stories that the PM is in serious talks about selling Slovenske Železnice (Slovene train operator) to German DeutscheBahn and about selling Telekom Slovenije (Slovene near-monopoly fixed-telephony operator) to Deutsche Telekom. Have the talks already collapsed and is this a form of German revenge or just a sort of “peer-pressure”, as in “I-know-what-you-did-last-summer-and-am-gonna-blow-the-whistle-if-I-don’t-get-a-good-deal“?

5.) The fact that state-television website reports a story which was broken by the competition and does nothing to protect the Ultimate Boss could mean (notice the conditional, please) that this government is fast losing its grip on things and cannot even control its own media. Given that media-control is Janša’s speciallity this could mean that he’s in more trouble than originally thought.

And, last but not least:

6.) The Germans are careful as to not make anything official. Both Slovene televisions quote dr. Udo Ulfkotte as saying that BND is in possesion of the transcripts and so should be SOVA, implying that they were removed by Janša’s government, since the latter claims that no such documents exist.

Now, dr. Ulfkotte is not a government official, but apparently an outside advisor to the German government on intelligence matters, which automatically means that any and all statements are his own and are not official Berlin positions. Meaning that this is Angela Merkel is sending a strong but totally deniable message to Janša, hoping he’ll understand it and make the “right” choice: sell two thirds of Slovene infrastructure to German companies. If not, she’ll crush him to solar dust.

Funny thing is, that this may very well be enough to deliver a very strong blow to Janša’s credibility, making him a lame-duck PM, especially if the opposition maintains the self-discipline not to start impeaching him, but letting him cook in his own sauce of espionage scandals, economic fuck-ups and hoping for a screw-up or two during the EU presidency which will have to be solved by the big boys (and a girl).

Election Continuous

Vote for continued flourishing of our cities and villages! (source)

As of autumn last year, this country is in a state of political flux which will last probably until 2012. We’ve entered what I like to call “continous electoral campaign”, as there are elections scheduled every year with a brief exception in year 2011. Allow me to elucidate with refferenced to specifics:

2006 – municipal elections
2007 – presidentital election
2008 – parliamentary elections
2009 – European elections
2010 – municipal elections
2011 – take a deep breath
2012 – general (presidential and parliamentary) elections

From a scientific point of view this gives us an ideal opportunity to follow the flow of politics, as agenda setting will by default be influenced by upcoming elections every year. You’ve had the opportunity to observe this on this blog throughout 2007 as assasination of character of President of the Republic took place. Why? To prevent him from running again, making room for a more “appropriate candidate” and to diminish the role of the President as such.

Next, it is almost obvious that 2008 will be the year of “great achievements” of this government as it will try to boost its ratings and secure another mandate. I’ve full confidence in PM Janša in that departement (please note the sarcasm), although it is entirely possible that the next coalition will be ruled by these two characters

And the pattern will repeat itself every year until 2012. On one hand, this is bad of course. With the ruling coalition up to its neck in a reelection bid, little actual work will get done, so I shan’t be surprised if Slovenia finds itself lagging in development in 2013.

On the other hand, it offers a brilliant option for a political “exit-stage right” for Janez Janša, thus really bringing political transition to an end. Namely: parliamentary and presidential elections coincide every twenty years (the parliament has a four-year term, while the President serves a five-year term). If we suppose that Janša will get another mandate as PM in 2008, it is safe to assume that he will either fuck up big, making himself unelectable as PM in 2012, or that Borut Pahor and his Social Democrats will slowly build up power up to the point of becoming the largest party in 2012. In both cases, Janša would be offered the perfect exit cue, as he would not have to face electoral defeat, but would rather just switch offices – much like Drnovšek did in 2002. But Drnovšek had to resign in order to run for President, whereas Janša wouldn’t have to.

It’s gonna be fun for the next couple of years 🙂

EDIT: My timing is impeccable. According to this article by RTVSLO Slovenia’s economy will cool down in 2013. A summary of the analysis by government economists in English can be found here.

Smart Move

Joško Joras, a walking border incident, in good company of Croatian police force

Agenda setting 101:

The PM has launched a semi-secret initiative to finally resolve the many disputes between Slovenia and Croatia (maritime border being only one of them). If we – for the sake of the argument – ignore the fact that this is the zilionth initiative to try to do that and that only one (1) has at least come close to being accepted by both parties (the Drnovšek- Račan agreement), then we could say that this intiative has potential.

Except that even Janša apparently believes that it doesn’t.

Forget for a moment that Slovene PM Janez Janša and his Croatian counterpart are still accused of rigging numerous border incidents – thus making their attempts at solving this thing higly uncredible. There is an entirely different telltale sign that the latest initiative is just a smokescreen: Janša is conferring with every political party in the parliament about this.

Sounds lovely. But the cruel fact is that it’s just a way of getting an issue off the agenda and preventing it from being used in election campaign. How can I tell? Because if there was only a tiny chance of actually striking a deal, Janša would take those chances and try to secure a political victory he so desperately needs. By involving all political parties he is making sure that everyone will share the blame for failure and will thus be denied a strong PR weapon in the upcoming election streak.

Let’s look at two possible scenarios:

Less likely: He actually clinches a deal with both position and opposition parties. Odds are that (due to pre-election period) none od the parties – especially the ruling Blut-und-Boden coalition – will want to appear as if they’re betraying national interests and will take positions impossible for Croatia to accept. It will be a well publicised attempt, a lot of brouhahaha and Croatian government will protest vehemently that Slovenia is not proposing negotiations but is giving an ultimatum (which is totally unacceptable in today’s modern Europe, where Slovenia should – as an EU member state – lead by example rather than resort to extortion – I guess that would be the outline of Croatian response)

Janša can then claim that a) it was all the oppositions fault or b) just keep quiet, knowing that the opposition would be ill-advised to press him on this.

More likely: Janša’s move throws political parties in chaos, making them accuse each other of trying to sell out national interests, while he just shrughs and says “I tried, but I can’t do anything with these bozos”. Janša then has the exact same options as above

And so Joško Joras keeps on causing international incidents (someone lock him up for good, puh-lease!), the opposition has to keep its mouth shut or risk looking like morons and Janša and Sanader get to keep the shit-pan we call “Slovene-Croat border disputes” and stir it when their ratings drop.

Smart move, ain’t it? 😀

THIS JUST IN: Heather Mills and Slovene Gov’t Cancel Cottage Deal

Rather important, I’d say, so you’ll forgive the double posting

According to a press release by the Government’s Communictaions Office representatives of the Government of Slovenia and of Heather Mills, ex. McCartney agreed to declare null and void a concract to sell a cottage (see picture) in Bohinj to Ms. Mills.

The statement reads that both parties have agreed to do so until full and satisfactory inqury into the claims of the Stankovic family has been made. This UK-based Serb family claims to be the rightful heir of the cottage.

Go figure… 🙂

Inflation, Lies and Watches

Hey, got a watch? (source)

Item One: A gang has robbed a luxurious shop with watches in BTC, Ljubljana’s shopping area. They’ve used mace to knock out salespeople and stole some € 80.000 worth of wrist watches.

Item Two: Prime Minister (an avid golfer) has seen it necesary to visit Croatian president (not prime minister) Stipe Mesić. They met during finals of Umag ATP tennis tournament. Janša apparently didn’t mind tennis, and their tete-a-tete seems to have been very important as its content have not yet been leaked to the press.

Item Three: Croatian Prime Minister (not president) Ivo Sanader is both a political rival of Stipe Mesić and an avid collector of rate wrist watches. His rather expensive hobby has recently drawn some extremely bad PR, as he sported watched worth several 10k euros, whereas people in Croatia are faced with increasing costs of living. Croatian oppostition has repeatedly told Sanader that “it is about time you resign” 😀

Item Four: Croatian Prime Minister and his Slovene counterpart, Ivo Sanader and Janez Janša have met yesterday during a football match between NK Domžale and NK Dinamo Zagreb. Again, the content of their confabulation remains confidential. But both PMs seem to have learned their lesson and have stopped talking shop over the phone. Dinamo Zagreb won 2:1.

I know rhese are just coincidences (more or less), but I can totally picture Janša giving Sanader one of the stolen watches saying “Sorry honey! I know I shouldn’t have been with Stipe. Here. I brought you a little something…”

But on a slightly more serious note: Inflation in Slovenia has risen a staggering 2,9 percent from January to July inclusive. In period from July 06 to July 07 there was an even bigger jump in prices – 3,8 percent. At the same time Ministry of Finance has said that everthing is cool and that public spending is being decreased. Which is in stark contradiction with a decision reached a month ago, to increase the budget deficit. So, who’s lying, eh?

It’s just amazing how incompetent aparatchiks can fuck up what others have put together for a decade and a half.

Burying the Dead

An oath by Slovene collaboationist Home Guard on Ljubljana Stadium, 20 April 1944 (source)

Slovenes like to divide ourselves along various lines. Political, geographical, alocholical, etc… One is therefore not surprised when one finds out that Slovenia sports its own version of the old Jewish proverb. Show me three Slovenes and I’ll show you five political parties. Most of these divisions are rather benign and can be used as a sightseeing attracion, much like hooligan clashes with the police.

However, Slovenes seem to be unable to bury our dead. As avid readers of the more serious posts of this blog know, Slovenia and Slovenes have had a rather nasty World War II. Being earmarked for extinction (ethnical clensing is the modern phrase, I believe), divided between three occupying countries and split internally between guerilla resistance and collaborators.

It all brought plenty of pain and suffering to everyone and even today, more than sixty years later, there are still innocent people who have suffered greatly during the war. Previous (socialist) regime maintanied the hollines of the war and held a position that only those who were on the right side were victims, whereas others were not to be compensated for their trauma. This left our plenty of innocent civilians who were hurt by Partisan or Allied forces (either through mistake or malice), people who were forcefully drafted into German military (and usually sent to the Russian front) or who were mistreated because some of their relatives were colaborators.

It is a shame the previous regime failed to compensate them and it is indeed an ever bigger shame that in sixteen years of democracy this country hasn’t been able to do that. But why is that? Well, because it goes down to the very core of what Slovenia is about and what our values are.

With emergence of democracy emerged (or “re-emerged”, rather) a different vision of Slovenia. A vision held by those, who were defeated in WWII. A vision of a Catholic, anti-communist Slovenia, which has to claim its rightful place among the ancient European nation, a place which it was denied by the success of the Communist revolution and the social upheaval which followed the end of WWII.

It soon became clear, however, that the not-so-secret agenda behind it had called for nothing less than equaling those who have actively fought against the occupator with those who actively fought with the occupator. And it all came down to a bill, which in its present form equals both sides, allowing everyone who was involved to be declared a victim of war. This bill was introduced several times already, but it never made it through the parliament. It always stirred too much emotion, and that was not a good thing for a country that was on the fast track to join the EU and NATO. So it was swept under the rug for as long as possible. Until yesterday, when the right-wing parties re-introduced the bill in the parliament.

My position on the issue is well known and you may freely call me biased. The Bible sayeth: “Judge not, lest ye be judged!“. But I’m more than willing to be judged (at least on this issue) and I say “judge on, oh Pengovsky!”

Namely (and I will say this time and again, if necesary): There was no middle ground during WWII. Not in Slovenia. One had to chose sides. Some people chose unvisely and were ready to sacrifise their own nation to a “lesser evil”. Today, perhaps we understand their reasons better. Surely there must be place for forgiveness in our hearts and minds. Surely the choices of the losing side do not justify the attrocities that were commited when the war had already ended. But never – never – must a fight for a nation’s survival be equaled with condoning a nation’s destruction.

Yes, it is time for us, Slovenes, to finally bury our dead. But those who died for us to survive must be respected, and those who died in vain must be mourned and forgiven. But never glorified. Their deeds are deeds of us all. And their deaths only show that we must make moral choices every day and that we are not inherently right in making them.

Wanted! Prefferably Alive (Or Why Slovenes Love Canada)

Contrary to what Slovene Tourist Board would have you believe, Slovenia is not a neat and tidy country where everyone recycles, doesn’t swear and vacates his/her seat on the bus so that the little old lady can sit dowm. No, sir-ee!

Slovenia is also where white-collar crime was perfected into an art form, mostly because the criminals were people like your next door neighbour, the kind that you’d let your kids go to the seaside with, or invite to your lawn party. Like a former State Secretary (under-minister) for Economic Affairs Boris Šuštar, who was charged with demanding and taking bribes on numerous occasions in exchange for rigging results of various government tenders. In one particular case he was accussed of giving a government grant of 21 million tolars (nearly € 100.000) to a certain company, of which he took a 30 percent cut. Remember, this was done more than seven years ago. Eventually, Šuštar was arrested, caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Just like in the movies he was picked up while receiving some 70.000 deutschmarks (€ 35.000) in bribes in one of Ljubljana’s pubs. But it is here where the plot thickens…

A photo-job of Šuštar, circling the net shortly after his arrest. (source)

Namely… Our legendary justice system almost grinded to a halt on this one. People were unwilling to testify, evidence was lacking and Šuštar’s lawyers did their best to stall the proceedings and/or have a mistrial declared. But defence attorneys are paid to do that, so no problem there.

Why was evidence lacking? Because both crim-police and the prosecution were (and still are) ill equipped for bringing white-collar criminals to justice. I mean – how do you prove that the tender was rigged? Or that particular sum of € 200.000 at the defendants Cayman bank account was to get laundered? Well, you need experts. But if the people at the Attorney General’s office have no financial background, then you get to see bizzare scenes where the defendant is actually explaining the intricacies of financial world to the court, rather than explaining himself/herself.

And why people didn’t want to testify? Not because Šuštar would have some big mafia organisation covering his back and getting rid of witnesses… It’s just that some level of corruption is embedded into Slovene soul. Ripping the state off, making money on the side, not paying any more tax than absolutely necesary, getting better medical care by giving a bottle of whiskey to your doctor, making sure your kid makes it to the next grade by bribing the teacher… All you need is a shotgun and a pair of horses and you’ve got yourself a redneck Christmas!

And on top of that (or maybe precisely because of that), Slovene judiciary failed to revoke Šuštar’s traveling documents, enabling him to flee to…. you’ve guessed it… to Canada 😀

It’s not just that Les Canadiens are awfully nice people whom you generaly like to be around. As far as Šuštar is concerned, there was the small matter of Slovenia and Canada not having an extradition treaty – unlike Slovenia and the USA where Davorin Sadar, another “transition-criminal” took refuge, but a smartass at the ministry of interior dug up an ancient treaty between the USA and Kingdom od Serbia, which was (by quirks of history) inherited by Slovenia as Yugoslavia broke up.

So, if you gotta run, run to Canada! 😀