Janez Drnovšek (1950 – 2008)

janezd.jpgFormer President Janez Drnovšek died last night. He has infulenced Yugoslav and Slovenian politics profoundly, giving a stellar perfomance in a relatively short period of time.

YUGOSLAVIA

He entered the top level of Yugoslav federal politics in 1989, seemingly coming from nowhere, although he has served as a deputy in Federal Assembly and as an economic advisor to the Yugoslav embassy in Cairo, Egypt. But as he kept a low profile, he was a complete anonymous to general public which elected him as the Slovene member of the federal Presidency over the candidate preffered by the Communist Party. This was to become a defining moment both for Slovene democracy and for Janez Drnovšek, who by a twist of faith became the first member of the Federal presidency to take over a year-long rotating mandate in 1989. While in office he presided over the start of dissolution of Yugoslavia, rise of Slobodan Milošević and emergence of democracy in Slovenia and Croatia.

During his tenure as President of the Presidency he saw up close what Slobodan Milošević and the Yugoslav National Army were up to. The drive for an increasingly centralised federation with Serbia as the dominant entity drew the other republics, most notably Drnovšek’s native Slovenia to implement democratic changes and seriously start exploring the possibility of a future without Yugoslavia. Upon assuming office he was also immediately faced with a problem which was to be solved ony shortly before his death. Kosovo. One of the most burning controversies at the time was whethet the Presidency and Drnovšek as its president knew of allegations of contentration camps for Kosovo Albanians. He would later (in 2005) be among the first Slovene politicians to claim that Kosovo was de facto independent.

Janez Drnovšek was the first more or less democraticaly elected Yugoslav president and the first one to speak to foreign dignitaries in Slovene language. When the Non-Aligned Movement held its annual meeting in Belgrade in 1989, he opened the plenary session in Slovene, which was a gross provocation at the very least, as the question of language was at the centre of controversy during a show trial in Ljubljana where an obscure scribe who went by the name of Janez Janša was accused of high treason by the Army which would not allow the trial to be coducted in Slovene.

The end of his tenure almost perfectly conicided with the first democratic elections in Slovenia, but Drnovšek continued to serve in Belgrade as Member of the Presidency (being succeeded by Serb Borisav Jović) and he kept an active role in trying to protect Slovene interests in Belgrade alongside Milan Kučan and Janez Stanovnik (the latter was replaced by Kučan as Preident of the Republic after 1990 elections).

After Yugoslavia broke up and Slovenia and Croatia declared independence, Drnovšek’s functions in Belgrade stopped, but as the only Slovene politician to have more or less direct access to foreign leaders, he became integral to the diplomatic side of Slovene independence. Although not bearing any formal title, he was a part of Slovenian delegation in Brioni in July 1991, where Slovenia
negotiated cease-fire with Yugoslav National Army which effectively ended the 10-day war.

SLOVENIA

A year later, Drnovšek was co-opted by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDS) as its president. What all along seemed a marriage of convenience (Drnovšek needed a party and LDS needed a president) was a remarkebly successful enterprise, as Drnovšek was elected as a Prime Minister in 1992 by a broad coalition in a non-confidence vite which toppled the government of Lojze Peterle. Again, Drnovšek seemingly came from nowhere and – although hardly an anonymous this time arouns – he was there to stay. Serving three consecutive mandates as PM (1992 – 2002) he is to date the only PM not to have lost an election.

During his terms as PM Slovenia was rapidly transforming itself from a planned- to a market-economy, a process that was not without its pains. Drnovšek inherited a work-intensive and a more or less non-competitive economy which saw a country-wide string of bancrupcies which exponentially increased the number of unemployed, a drop in productivity and a rise in inflation. But Slovenia was slowly showing signs of economic recovery, and – performing transition on its own terms rather than under an IMF dictate – within a couple of years the economic indicators were positive and Slovenia was showing all signs of a moderate economic miracle – long after all the other new European countries were paying a heavy price for quick liberalisation of the market and sell-off of state property.

Far from being ideal, but it can be said that economic and social transition under the tenure of Janez Drnovšek has provided Slovenia with the “best of both worlds” or possibly a very close approximation. This would of course not be possible had Slovenia not had a coalition government, which Drnovšek additionally equally balanced by left and right-wing parties, positioning himself and LDS firmly in the political centre. This has led to frequent accusations of political opportunism, especially during 1996-2000 mandate, when Slovenia was faced with a political stalemate as the parliament was split right down the middle and Drnovšek got his shot as PM only after a deputy of Christian Democrats swithched his allegiance to LDS in what was to become known as Puckism (named after Ciril Pucko, the ratting deputy) and probably one of the more michevious political deeds of entire Drnovšek’s career. Because, although completely legal, the switch did leave a sour taste in the mouth of many, especially after Drnovšek (although nominated as PM) failed to get his initial cabinet elected and had to assemble an entirely different coalition to elect the cabinet. This also led to the rise of Slovene People’s Party (SLS) which became juniour coalition partner and has been a part of any ruling coalition ever since.

The same SLS briefly toppled Drnovšek’s government in Spring 2000, only to see him re-elected by the widest of margins later in the year. In 2000 elections, LDS alone got more than 30% of the vote and a coalition with Social Democrats and (surprise, suprise) SLS ensured a 2/3 majority in the parliament – a luxury never before experienced in democratic Slovenia. But LDS was becoming increasingly self-involved, ineffective and even corrupt. The straw which broke the camel’s back was to take form of a luxury jet which the goverment was to buy and which was so badly communicated that everything that government PR did only made things worse – up to the point of pressuring state TV not to run a piece on the issue. It all culminated in Drnovšek’s address to party members at a congress where he demanded a stop to cronyism, nepotism and corruption within the party. But it turned out to be too little to late and the LDS was already on the path which would end in its destuction. Drnovšek, however, after a long and very public period of sitting on the fence, decided to resign as PM and run for President as Milan Kučan’s second term ended in 2002.

Drnovšek was elected President after defeating Barbara Brezigar (now General Prosecutor) in the second round. Upon assuming office he also assumed an unusually low profile. He executed his presidential duties with little flair and at times he seemed non-existent. All that changed in early 2006, as President Drnovšek announced that he is forming a Movement for Justice and Development, a non-governmental organisation aimed at bettering the human race. This coincided with a complete personal transformation of Janez Drnovšek who suddenly took on a more active, but also highly unconventional role of what was latter to become known as a “hippy president”. He claimed to have been cured of cancer (see below), shunned western medicine (only to re-embrace it later), he turned vegan and moved out of Ljubljana to a remote hill of Zaplana. He rejected materialism and started studying oriental philosopy. He also openly mocked current Slovenian politicans, keeping them jumpy prior to 2007 elections when he wouldn’t say whether he would seek re-election or not, and even admitted to be doing it just to see them twitch. In the end he didn’t run for office and was last seen in public in late December 2007 when Danilo Türk took over as President of the Republic.

During his transfomative periods he also had a series of fall-outs with the government of Janez Janša, with whom he intially seemed to get quite along. Tensions culminated in 2006 when The office of the President was refused additionaly funds to continue Drnovšek’s foreign policy activities. Later that same year the anti-Roma crisis erupted in Ambrus and President Drnovšek led a convoy to help the Strojan Roma family at Christmas time, only to be blocked by a barricade whereupon he scorned the local population for its treatment of the Romas.

SICKNESS

In 1999 his spokesperson said that Janez Drnovšek has had a kindey removed due to malignant tissue. Drnovšek rarely talked about his cancer and save an occasional debate on whether politicians should present a clean bill of health before running for office, the issue was more or less left untouched. Only whishpers and roumors could be heard, mostly connected to the fact that there was a high-tech ambulance parked whereever Drnovšek was that his trademark moustache was gone due to chemotherapy and not just a change in style. It was only in 2006 that he admitted to have been diagnosed with cancerous metastases in his lungs and liver. At about that time he also publicly shunned western medicine and opted for the alternative approach, later even abandoning all treatments. He claimed to have been cured and although his behaviour was erratic at times he seemed in good spirit. It was only the fact that he looked more and more frail as time progressed (and he was not a corpulent person to start with) that gave away that he was fighting a losing battle.

IMPACT

Janez Drnovšek, Ph.D., an economist by vocation, was one of handful of individuals who have shaped Slovenian politics in the last twenty years, and would easly make the list of top 10 Slovenians of the 20th century. Be it as a no-name thrown into a cessspool of Yugoslav politics, a highly talented PM who brought Slovenia back from the brink of economic collapse and transformed it into a sucessful new enocomy, as a statesman whose connections and acquaintances rivaled those of every American president or a popular leader who is was concerned with issued of enviroment and sustained growth and who brought the Darfur crisis to world’s attention, he set the pace and the tone of Slovenian and sometimes even international politics.

Having had such an illustrious carrer, it is hard to single out one achievment that will outlast Janez Drnovšek for times to come. The obvious answer would of course be the creation of a sovereign Slovene state. But this humble blogger would like to think that the two things Janez Drnovšek should be remembered by are his speech at Teharje commemoration, when he in my opinion set the record straight regarding World War II and made the decisive step in national reconciliation and the fact that politics perhaps some day can be done in a different way. Not today, and perhaps not tomorrow, but some day. It is just a shame that a person must depart this Earth to show us that.

Janez Drnovšek, 58, was an author of four books and is survived by a son and a daughter.

Izbrisani / The Erased

I was meaning to write up this one a while ago, but things just kept happening. Namely, The Erased, a human rights fiasco which affected almost 1% of entire Slovenian population. 18.000+ people, mostly from former Yugoslav republics, who for one reason or another failed to get their papers in order after Slovenia declared independence were removed from all official databases. They were in effect – erased.


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The Erased in Brussels


Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) ran a fine peice on the issue a couple of weeks ago (you really should listen to it) which gives a fair account of the issue which is – needless to say – highly divisive as the Constitutional Court has ruled in 2004 that the erasure was unconstitutional, but the parliament has failed to address the issue properly. And not just this parliament and this government. The erasure happened in 1992 and every single government since has turned a blind eye or made only a token effort to solve what was increasingly becoming a social and not just a political problem. Naturally, the government doesn’t see it this way (note that the document pre-dates Janša’s government).

Pahor And Janša Neck-And-Neck

We’ve had anohter new poll yesterday, this one done by Episcenter pollsters. This poll, still done in the days prior to Operation Clean Shovel, shows that both Social Democrats and the ruling SDS rate at 22% which is definitely bad news for Borut Pahor. The short time span in which all polls were conducted means that were are seing the same situation from different angles rather than a continuing trend, but still…


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This poll is interesting for one more reason. It has the lowest percentage of undecided voters and higher percentage of decided voters for all parties except DeSUS and Zares. Now, obviously we can put that down to a slightly different sample, perhaps focusing on rural Slovenia (I’m guessing here) – especially since SLS, SNS and NSi got a substantially higher percentage than in competing polls, but it would appear that pengovsky’s previous assesment of all the smaller parties making it across the 4% treshold is probably correct. Except Lipa, which noone polls at the moment, as Sašo Peče still has to formally create a party.

Pengovsky’s projection: much like the last time around. SDS and SD will increasingly go for each other’s neck, as will probably LDS and Zares. Smaller parties are looking to make it to the parliament, if something big doesn’t happend and we don’t have a landslide victory by either of the big two. Barring that a coalition between SDS and SD looks likely to happen, but we’re still a long way from autumn.

Orlek And The Beast

The Good Doctor has yet again uncovered a gem. Apparently Slovenian minister for sports Milan Zver (literally: Milan Beast) advised against participants in 2008 Summer Olympics in China bringing up the issue of human rights.

Now, to be fair, Zver had a point. He said that athletes shouldn’t be doing the politician’s job. True. But the problem is that politicians seem reluctant to do the job, especially especially if China is an important business partner. And China is an important business partner to …. ummmm …. pretty much the rest of the world. So the politicos either keep quiet or jost go through the motions, hoping that they will not anger the Big Red Dragon, while keeping the local branch of Amnesty International at bay.

Not everyone is happy, though. Reporters without borders demanded that Slovenian government disowns Zver’s statement. But there’s no need for that. Zver already backed off, saying that he didn’t mean to pressure anybody, it just that he thinks that a boycott of the Olympics would do little good..

Which is all fine and dandy, except for two things: that he was pressuring the athletes, or was at least very much out of line – much like PM Janša was on the issue of Portugese referendum on the Lisbon Treaty – and the small fact that Zver’s original statement didn’t mention boycott at all. Which is a typical modus operandi of this administration: first they jump the gun on those who may make life unpleasant for them (like journalists signing a petition against censorhip or athletes advocating human rights) and then they claim that the other party was after something much worse (conspiring against Slovenia or advocating a boycott of the Olympics).

May opinion is that politicians, civil society, NGOs and industry should highlight violations of human right all over the world, including China. I firmly believe that a boycott of the Olympic Games is not a proper political approach in the 21st century and that sports should become the tool of intercultural dialog, co-operation and peace in the world.

(I’ve preserved the lovley typo at the begining of the quote)

And yes, if we neglect the boycott-spin, the intercultural dialog is indeed the way to go about it. Case in point being Orleki, an etno-rock-brass group from the mining town of Zagorje, which have just concluded a 14-day-tour of Beijing, celebrating the Chinese New Year, shaking a whole lot of local booty. And if you ask how come, check the video.

Pretty cool, huh? :mrgreen:

Largest Parties Keep Bleeding Support, Zares Loses A Third

We’ve had two new polls come in yesterday, both dealing in variety of issues – but obvioulsy support the main political parties are getting is of main interest. A poll by the Public Opinion and Mass Communication Research Centre (CJM) shows basically the same relations between Pahor’s Social Democrats (SD) and Janša’s Slovene Democratic Party (SDS) we’ve seen in Delo poll 12 days ago.

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Also in accordance with Delo’s poll is the undecided column, which grew substantially. A couple of eddies are notable, though. Firstly, the relatively big drop for Zares, which seems to correspond to an increase in support for LDS – the change in both cases in exactly 3 percent. Now, this can be attributed to a different polling sample, but as CJM’s samples are notoriously accurate (most of the time, anyway), this could very well be the definite proof that these two parties are addressing basically the same voters – although Delo’s poll shows that Zares might aslo be entering SD’s turf as well. In any case, I think Zares are not particularly happy with this poll, whereas LDS shouldn’t break out the extra spam rations, as this result has yet to turn into an upward trend.

Lower on the chart, a rise in support for the nationalists (SNS), pensioners’ party (DeSUS) and predominantly catholic NSi is notable. All three parties have a difficult-to-detect base, so in reality SNS’s 6 percent means huge gains in the parliament, while DeSUS’s 3 percent also translate into comfortably making it across the 4% treshold for entering the parliament. The same goes for NSi, which cannot be exactly happy with 2 percent, but as I already noted, they might have gone below radar to regroup. According to this CJM poll, it is only Slovene People’s Party (SLS) which has to ring the alarm bells, but we’ll see what (if any) effect the Operation Clean Shovel will have on the polls. Namely CJM was polling from February 11 until February 13, missing the full blow of the operation by a day-and-a-half.

In the other corner, wearing blue shorts, is a poll by Parcifal Group (commissioned by the government, might I add), which shows a somewhat different picture. Most notably, according to this poll – a similar sample, but polled from 11 Feb until 14 Feb – the ruling SDS of Janez Janša holds a .9 percent lead over Borut Pahor‘s opposition Social Democrats, a result which is definitely going against the flow. Also, this poll shows the least support for SLS, as well as the higehst percentage of undecided voters, which strongly suggest a significantly different pattern. But although this poll was commisioned by the government, it doesn’t neceserily mean that it is wrong or rigged. It’s just – different :mrgreen:

BTW: Neither polls shows data for Sašo Peče’s Lipa – probably because the renegades of SNS have yet to formally establish a political party.

Pengovsky’s projection: Despite the different percentages, two things become obvious – that the number of undecided voters is again on the rise, which probably means that the effect of presiedntial elections is slowly wearing off, which might spell better times for Janša’s government (it recorded a mere 33% of support according to CJM poll). SD and SDS will probably continue running neck and neck, with SD slowly bleeding suporrt for the next couple of months. Who takes the top stop thus depends on whether SDS can bleed its support at a slowe pace than SD. For now that seems to be the case. Also, keep an eye on Zares. Losing a third of support is not a trivial thing, which means that voters might see this party as a sort of a refuge for disenchanted left-wing voters. Generally speaking, things are still interesting on the left side of the political spectrum, with all parties in the poll looking to make it across the 4% parliamentarian treshold.

Operation Clean Shovel

A series of high profile arrests rattled Slovenia yesterday. In what appears to be the an almost year-long investigation, the anti-crime unit and a specialized team of prosecutors gathered enough evidence to detain Ivan Zidar, Dušan Črnigoj and Hilda Tovšak, CEOs of construction companies SCT, Primorje and Vegrad respectively.


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Ivan Zidar (SCT), Dušan Črnigoj (Primorje) and Hilda Tovšak (Vegrad)


To cover the intricacies of the Slovenian construction sector would require a whole series of posts, but suffice it to say that the past 15 years have been good for business in the sector. As the good doctor would have us know, real-estate prices in Slovenia have reached utterly pocket-crippling prices, but the demand outpaces supply by far, enabling contruction companies to practically sell whole blocks of appartments before even construction begins.

But this is just end-user market. The real money is in the infrastructure, namely in the Slovenian highway system, which was at the time it was commenced a) 30 years behind schedule and b) naivelly under-priced. This had two immediate effects: Slovenian construction companies, suffering the loss of the Yugoslav market and finding it increasingly hard to do business internationally (it is said that SCT built bunkers for Saddam Hussein in Iraq), were suddenly looking at a very bright future at home but at the same time the project kept getting more and more expensive until it became clear that someone wasn’t looking at the right column when adding up the total costs of Slovene highways.

There was more than enough work for entire Slovenian construction sector (and an occasional foreign contractor as well), but the most contracts by far went to Ivan Zidar’s SCT – some commentators estimate that his company earned €3,5 billion just by building highways.


Now, anyone who ever build a house (or even just redid the bathroom) knows that in the end it is always more expensive than initially thought, because “we had to change them pipes that were leaking all over the place” and that once you go with the project you don’t really change the contractor, because finding a new one again costs time and money while you can’t use the loo. And so Slovene construction companies followed the culture of underpricing and then, when a particular section of the highway was half-built, went “Errr… you know, about the price….”. And the government coughed up another tonne of money, because a) it didn’t want to come off as naive, b) this way it kept employment and GDP up and c) the deal was probably political anyway.

And this is the gist of it: it is more or less a matter of public record that companies, supposedly competing for winning contracts, formed a sort of a trust, fixing their bids and pre-aranging who would win which contract, hiring the remaining companied as subcontractors afterwards. Just that noone was able to prove it, because…. well… the government didn’t really feel like it, mostly due to the a,b,c cited above, plus the fact that some wealth was probably spread the government way as well (I won’t use the word bribe, but feel free to think it). But even if there was no direct bribery involved, the fact remains that people from construction companies would often find themselves in government or para-government posts (such as board of the Slovene Highway Company – DARS) or vice-versa. Nearly everybody is connected to nearly everybody else and in this game nobody tops Ivan Zidar, who is probably the single most-connected person in this coutnry. His connections span from old communist aparatchiks to the highest levels of the Catholic Church (SCT being its main contractor as well).

Yesterday’s arrests strike at the very heart of Slovene economy, especially since last year’s high GDP growth was riding solely on a government-funded construction boom. But rattling the economy cage, arrests are also political. If one had to name a party which had overwhelming influnece (especially in the highway business), it would be Slovene People’s Party (SLS), whose economic influence far exceeds its political might. Indeed, Finance minister Andrej Bajuk (NSi) allegedly ran a pet project of breaking this party’s grip on the construction sector, although both parties belong to the political right. Or maybe that was precisely the reason.


The stakes are high for PM Janez Janša. Although he (as he should) claims that he had no prior knowledge of the operation, noone really believes him. This is just to big for him not to be in the know. Moreover, he publicly declared a war against “tycoons” (i.e.: so called winners of transition) who ammased relatively huge ammounts of wealth in the past 15-20 years. So the police and the prosecutors better have an air-tight and waterproof case which they will close fast. Because if they don’t – and if the whole thing turns out to be just a political and PR stunt – the wrath the detained trio will bring down on the PM will be tantamount to Samuel L. Jackson’sgreat vengence and furious anger“.

And remember – the burden of proof lies with the government. This is not a traffic violation we are talking about here. Being convinced that the three are guilty of corruption and bribery and proving it beyond a shadow of the doubt are two very different things. If the government wants to avoid allegations of setting up a pre-election show-trial aimed at boosting its dwindling popularity, the prosecution needs to produce a smoking gun. And it doesn’t really matter they do it on a deal of building a new control tower at Ljubljana International, worth just € 30 million. Elliot Ness got Al Capone for tax evasion.


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