Delo daily published a public opinion poll yesterday showing opposition Social Democrats (led by Borut Pahor) in the lead with 22,2%, whereas the ruling Slovene Democratic Party (led by PM Janša) are trailing at 17,5 %. Gregor Golobič‘s Zares take third place with 10,1 %, while LDS proper slumped to 4,0 %.
This is the second month in a row Delo‘s pollsters recorded a slump in SD’s rating which could start spelling trouble for Borut Pahor as he is widely viewed as the only real challenger to Janez Janša’s ambitions to continue as the top dog in this country. This becomes all the more apparent if we take into account the fact that Janša’s SDS did slump but nowhere near as much as SD. However, at a first glance it seems that most of SD’s “missing” support went into the “don’t know” column, perhaps transferring slightly to Zares as well. Namely, the latter recorded a sharp rise from previous polls, which cannot be acounted for just with a sharp drop in LDS’s support (Zares being primarily formed by renegade LDS members).
As the bar for entering the parliament is set at 4%, the results of the poll suggest that predominantly Catholic Nova Slovenia (N.Si), the Pensioner’s Party (DeSUS) and Lipa (newly formed renegades from Jeličič’s Natoinal party) will not make it past the post. Personally I think this is higly unlikely (with the possible exception of Lipa), as all of the smaller parties draw on a highly dispersed pool of voters which is a bit more difficult to detect with a sample poll.
While 4,0 percent is a bit of a disappointment for LDS, this can and probably will change for the better, most likely at the expense of Zares which (save a terrible faux pas) seems set on comfortably making it to the parliament. Furthermore Jelinčič’s nationalists seem to have suffered from a split with Saško Peče’s Lipa, although the latter apparently did not pick up SNS‘s missing votes. And – last but not least – Slovene People’s Party (SLS) can build on the 4,9 percent it got this time around, although the recent switch at the helm of the party apparently failed to generate support on its own.
Pengovsky’s projection: SD will continue the downward trend for another month or two, while smaller coalition parties (SLS and DeSUS) take over the stage as they will be vigorously opposing possible sale of Slovene Telecom and Triglav Insurance, thus threatning stability of Janša’s coalition – mostly to get additional press coverage and stir up some more shit. LDS will have to come up with an ingenious ploy to drum up additional support, but the same goes for Zares which cannot break into the Mipos Dance of Joy yet as its support is much to wobbly at this time. N.Si will seem to go below radar, but due to its specific voter base this will mostly mean securing some additional grass-roots support. The endgame continues.
Basically, I agree. With a sidenote that I expect LDS grassroots to kick in just before election time as well.
Zares IMO has excellent leadership but it remains to be seen how successful they will be in solidifying their the local-level position. Every vote counts…
Oh yes… Every vote counts… Especially this time around 😀
dr. filomena: Define “excellent leadership”.
Karel, well, Golobič is the most intelligent politician around, but true, intellect doesn’t necessarily mean also a “great leadership”. Though I think he is pretty good at it.
I really don’t know who to vote, well it’s true I rarely do it, I don’t trust Pahor to be of the right material, he would do well for a president, but not prime minister
Zares and LDS didn’t really convince me that they’re in any way different from the old LDS which got far too corrupted, for beeing too long in power
I sort of started to like Bojan Šrot, I think he would be much better prime minister then Pahor, he sounds honest, I don’t know if he is to be trusted or not though
@Luka: One of the most intelligent politicians 😉 I mean, even with all his faliures you can’t seriously claim JJ not to be intelligent. I do, however, agree that GG can and possibly does think on a larger scale of things than JJ ever did. But that can come as a drawback as well.
@Karel: Please excuse my pre-coffee less-than-eloquent comment. What I was actually trying to say is that the party does have some very competent folks on board at the highest level, but that does not suffice for an excellent result in popular elections.
I do /partly/ concur with Luka that Golobič is one of the most intelligent politicians around though at the same time I should add that I think Janša and Jelinčič for example have their own ample grey-matter resources as well.
More than intellectual capacity is required for excellent leadership, however. If pressed to come up with a quick definition, in my eyes it would be intellect + instinct + character + knowledge + experience + media presence/appeal
Bearing in mind that nobody’s perfect, question is which part of the above a particular voter is going to consider most/least important.
Yikes I really should take more time in writing these comments (or at least get more sleep 😈 ) I’m about to rebut my own argument. Will come back later. Sheesh.
@dr. fil: Spot on (your comment@3.04 pm)
Golobič may be very intelligent, I don’t doubt it,
but there must be something wrong with him if he decided to return back to politics
You cannot remain honest and true to yourself, it is just not possible once you join the political activities
I don’t believe that ppl joining political life do it coz they want to serve their country or help their country develop or something like that
So why did he come back, I wonder?
@Aja: You cannot remain honest and true to yourself, it is just not possible once you join the political activities
Yes, at the very least it is very hard. But this goes for Bojan Šrot as well. And I’m not sure “trust” is a practical measure in politics.
I think voters will decide as much on the actions of this government as on the alternatives offered by other parties and then make a choice they will feel less uncomfortable with.
I’m not an SLS supporter, far from it, I just happened to hear an interview with Šrot, and he sounded like an intelligent, sensitive guy, that’s all I know about him, and if I had to choose between him and Pahor, Šrot sounded like someone who’s not afraid of hard work ; of course there are others, I wouldn’t choose Golobič, I think he could be an excellent adviser but not acting on the front line, he’s far too cynical to convince me, that he could take political leadership seriously
@myself (polje alert): Would just like to add that the definition I put together refers to what I perceive the elements of great political leadership potential.
Actual great leadership, however, to my mind implies something else to boot, beyond the leader’s charisma. And that would be *results*. The capacity to set an objective, present it in such a way that it gains popular support and then follow it through successfully.
@Aja: Who can remain completely true to themselves other than small children and mentally disturbed people? Being an adult involves striking compromises. At home, at work, etc. Assuming responsibility and acting as a member of the society. Unlike you, I actually believe that *most* successful politicians start their careers with the best of intentions and high ideals. (Then again, I do also believe that the great majority of people in general are ‘good’ 😉 ) After that, question is how resillient they are to the many temptations that come along in the shape of various types of power.
As George Bernard Shaw put it, the power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it 😉
Actually, I might even agree with Aja – to a point. GG can come off as rather cynical – a trait I’ve come to respect in people. However, most people usuallyl misinterpret cynicism as arrogance and that is GG’s weakest point as a leader in my opinion.
The fact that Šrot comes off as a hard working man obviously works in the other direction (call it brain vs. brawn dillema if you will). And luckily SLS and Zares don’t really go for the same kind of folk.
(to dr. filomena, I guess, among others)
I enjoy reading your shrewd political analyses and also admire your english, I don’t really study, analyse political parties and politicians, I don’t find them interesting enough, most of the time, I just drop in my opinions, impressions
“Who can remain completely true to themselves other than small children and mentally disturbed people”
Literally it would be impossible, coz which of our so many selves should we be true to, each person is such a complex world of its own, it’s all about compromises, on many levels,
what I meant is, an intelligent person would only go to politics if he had some hidden motives (of which also he himself could be totally unaware), and I believe there’s a lot of plotting ad lying and back stabbing in politics, and if you want to work honestly, well, in this world we live in, with multinational corporations with the real power behind “independent, idealistic” politicians, I don’t think so
about cynicism, I can understand intelligent people, living amongst ppl who can’t follow them, who, from their perspective are plain stupid, their cynical outbursts from time to time are understandable, but there’s more then intellect that makes up a person.
so, I’d choose a well known quote, from dear Mr. Wilde, who could be very cynical, but he also had a poetic, innocent soul of a child
“What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing”
And Shaw was a colossal cynic himself, so it’s normal he wouldn’t talk about his lot objectively.
He would underline the good sides of cynics and forget the other side (quite normal)
So let me summarize your arguments:
Golobic is one of the most intelligent politicians in Slovenia because:
a.) intellect
b.) instinct
c.) character
d.) knowledge
e.) experience
f.) media presence/appeal
and Pengovsky’s addition
g.) vision
a.) Intellect? I tried to think of a single case where he has shown his intelect or his intelectual behaviour and by all means I cannot think of a single case. The people who worked with him or had contact with him often describe him as a rather arrogant person with good oratory skills but very narrow intellectual breadth.
I have checked COBISS system to see if I am missing any intellectual achievements and with great saddnes found almost nothing except his diploma work which he finished in 2002 (someone was very lazy, eh Gregor?).
Taking this into the account it is now much more understandable to me why he is constantly hiding behind his daddy’s back. This shows a man whose whole agenda takes into account two things: 1.) to take power no matter of the cost and b.) to hate Janez Janša.
It is not a coincidence that Zizek compared him with Stalin. We know that Stalin was a “great intellect” as well. When hunger and starvation were ravaging throughout USSR it was the fault of the treacherous imperialists. When bread and bottle of milk was available on the table it was only thanks to Comrade Stalin.
b.) The only instinct he has is that one of survival. Here he is in the same lot as his good friend Zoran Jankovic. They are like small puppies who need a master to take them out for a walk from time to time. When one asks them a question about health care, defense, foreign policy, economy etc. they usually throw to “plebs” a couple of populistic mantras which are launched with the aim to frighten the people and since 1945 we all know that frightened people are the best voters.
I remember the pre-election time in 2000 when LDS was widely campaigning around aout how pensions will drop or even get abolished if Jansa ever gets the power of the country. Very thin…
c.) chracter…
Remembering past and present TV discussions and debates we (I) had with him during the elections in 2000 and 2004 I often comprehended him as a very shallow man who tends to hide this shallowism by being arrogant and cynical. When he gets cornered by arguments by somebody else he will immediately launch his self-defense shield to depict himself as a victim. He talks and never says anything.
d.) Knowledge? About what? Foreign Policy? Economy? Defense? The only thing he is good at is at dividing people into two categories. Those who are with him, willing to serve and obey his commands – the privileged caste and the rest of the lot. The plebs. The not so nice people in his world of fantasy.
e.) Experience in which field?? He has never been a minister or a prime minister? He never led any department, ministry, never was a secretary, never made any decisions under pressure?? The highest he got was secretary general of the LDS. Which I admit in early 2000s was a state within state, so perhaps he has some exerperiences about leading the country… Unfortunately not the qualities which I and most Slovenes are looking for.
f.) Media presence… Na ja… When you have servile journalists like Slovenia where all of them are either too scared, too servile, too apathic, too biased, too lazy or simply too stupid to ask ALL the politicians and civil servants the difficult and demanding questions than one gets only what he deserves. Or if you want to illustrate this with an example read this tourching “masterpiece article”, which nearly made me cry:
URL: http://www.mladina.si/tednik/200227/clanek/rop-kdo/
As easy it is today for medias to destroy someone’s public image as easy it is to create a positive image about someone. To destroy someone you just need to hire Grega Repovz to write some manipulating articles about your opponent’s big salary (which later turns out to be nothing special). To hail someone you just need to take Mrs. Mateja Babic out for a coup of coffee, give her some basic guidelines, instructions and maybe two or three posh photographs of yourselve from your youth years (walking in the mountains, working in a factory, hanging out with your buddies, standing in a field without your shirt or swimming in a swimming pool) and she can sold you to the public like a new Jesus.
g.) Vision: You gotta to be joking, Pengy! he has vision about what? The only vision he seems to have is to remove Jansa from power and then what? That’s no vision for me. Prime ministers come and go. Jansa will go one day too. So will Golobic.
I personally am searching for something more deeper, concrete plans and programs than some cheap populistic five-year plans similar to Jankovic’s 22 points program, who is now of course blaming the government and everyone else for his own incompetence. Perhaps instead of visiting Belgrade and Zagreb Jankovic and most of other Slovene mayors ought to pay a visit to their respected colleage Johannis in Sibiu to see how one does renovate and revive the old city centre. With little or no help from the government or state budget.
Unfortunately not the qualities which I and most Slovenes are looking for.
Whoah, is that a touch of megalomania I’m sensing there, Karel?
… some cheap populistic five-year plans …
Well, as long as we’re quoting a certain leftist propaganda weekly here…
http://www.mladina.si/tednik/200631/clanek/slo-tema–ali_h_zerdin/
@Karel: Please point out… no… scratch that… qoute the paragraph in either post or comments where I’ve used the word “vision”. Because I can’t seem to find it. Who knows, maybe I didn’t even use it. In fact… I’m sure I didn’t use it. I should know. I wrote the fucking post!
I don’t know what dimension you live in or what ghosts you are chasing, but – you’re seeing things.
Pengovsky: No problem, Pengy.
pengovsky Says February 5th, 2008 at 3:03 pm…. I do, however, agree that GG can and possibly does think on a larger scale of things than JJ ever did.
Large scale of things? We were talking here about the prime minister candidates so when someone says or writes that Golobic is a thinker on a larger scale (yes and pigs can fly too) I naturally interprete this as a person who is possesing a certain quality called a vision of how the country should get developed and run in the future. Unless of course you tried to say something else by this but in that case you should write your post more fuckin’ clearly. Perhaps your close friends can understand the meaning of your words or what did you try to say by this, but I am not Cornelius and I definately do not read sci-fiction or to put it in another words the Mladina.
Cornelius: Whoah, is that a touch of megalomania I’m sensing there, Karel?
No, you feel the bitter disappointment mixed with bitterness and angry that the amateurs from 1945 and 1989 are still in the saddle and breaking the development that this country deserve by looking only and just for their own interests. Like they did before 1991.
Well, as long as we’re quoting a certain leftist propaganda weekly here…
A leftist propaganda? Mladina is not a leftist propaganda! They are just propaganda. Calling them a leftist would be an insult to all the true socialists and social democrats living and working in this world.
To get back to your link. There is a difference between a resolution and a program.
Resolution is:
* resolúcija -e ž (ú) javna izjava o pomembnem vprašanju, položaju, sprejeta na sestanku, zborovanju,
and a program is:
* prográm -a m (ȃ) 1. skupek nalog, del, ki se določijo za uresničitev: določiti, uresničiti program; sprejeti kako nalogo, zahtevo v program; knjižni program založbe
Or as Jankovic himself has said in his latest interview:
Najavio sam 22 projekta, odredio rokove i obvezao se da ću ih sve provesti te sastavio listu svojih kandidata za Gradsko vijeće. Građani su poznavali i mene i ljude s moje liste, znali su kakvi smo i što možemo. Pobijedio sam između 16 kandidata u prvom krugu sa 63 posto glasova, dok je moja lista dobila 23 mjesta od ukupno 45 u Gradskom vijeću…
URL: http://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/kako-je-srbin-osvojio-slovence/372443.aspx
It seems that not even the propaganda trumpet doesn’t believe his wild stories anymore.
http://www.mladina.si/tednik/200705/clanek/slo–proracun_ljubljane-ursa_marn/
So Pengy what’s happening with his 22 projects he promised?
I don’t know what dimension you live in or what ghosts you are chasing, but – you’re seeing things.
Thank you for the compliments, Pengy. I am always grateful to people who commend me for having my eyes and ears open. That means that by seeing things I think. By thinking I understand. and by understanding I comprehend.
I pity those who are not seeing things for they are sleeping and wandering around like a human being in a cage. 🙂
@Aja: You say “an intelligent person would only go to politics if he had some hidden motives”. Actually, I think those motives are not all that hidden. They usually come close to what is professed as their political platform. And the ever-present, but not really hidden, appetite for power.
@Karel: Glad to see you back at the blog, but disappointed over your arguments this time around. Logic fails in the very first sentence already. Where did you find any reference to a causal relationship between intelligence and points a through g? Those were arguably attributed to the makings of excellent leadership potential.
You combined Luka’s reference to Golobič with my view of what it takes to build excellent leadership wherein I never claimed any specific person to possess all the elements in full. In fact, I wrote: “Bearing in mind that nobody’s perfect, question is which part of the above a particular voter is going to consider most/least important.” And once you added another element, P’s alleged reference to vision, you simply went on a rant against Golobič. I hoped you’d go on to share your ideal of great leadership. Not in terms of names, but that as well if you so opted.
Really. Consider me disappointed.
@Karel: I take it I’ve proven my point. You’re making things up as you go. You’ve yet to show an instance in this post or this post’s comments where I’ve used the word “vision”.
And I don’t care a pair of fetid dingo’s kindeys how you interpret my posts. Thinking on a larger scale of things means exactly that: Thinking on a larger scale of things And that’s it. Vision is something entirely different. I realize that certain things seem natural to you. But they are not
Oh, and “to be seeing things” has a different connotation than “to see things”. Or is this point lost on you as well?
As far as Janković’s 22 projects are concerned: They are not his projects. They’re just projects that have been in various drawers for 30+ years and he went about enacting them. What exactly do you want to know? Barjanska cesta is finished, so it Technology Park. Kino Šiška is about to see the start of renovation. So far that’s 2 out of 22 with three years to go. I repeat – these project have been around for a long time. He just picked them up and ran on that ticket – and got elected by an overwhelming majority.
And if he fails to deliver, he’ll get replaced by another mayor. Simple as that.
I take it I’ve proven my point. You’re making things up as you go. You’ve yet to show an instance in this post or this post’s comments where I’ve used the word “vision”.
Funny… I could swear that a couple of days ago you accused me of writing the word boring in a negative connotation to one of your friends, though I did not mean it in a negative connotation. Oh, what a tangled web we weave…eh?
And I don’t care a pair of fetid dingo’s kindeys how you interpret my posts. Thinking on a larger scale of things means exactly that: Thinking on a larger scale of things And that’s it. Vision is something entirely different. I realize that certain things seem natural to you. But they are not
The English (and our) definition of VISION – dnder No. 2 you find Unusual competence in discernment or perception; intelligent foresight: a leader of vision.
If this is not “thinking on a larger scale of things” of sn “intelligent person” than perhaps you ought to explain what you mean by this.
Source: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/vision
Oh, and “to be seeing things” has a different connotation than “to see things”. Or is this point lost on you as well?
Not really. I only understood your statement in a positive connotation. 🙂
As far as Janković’s 22 projects are concerned: They are not his projects. They’re just projects that have been in various drawers for 30+ years and he went about enacting them….
So you are trying to say that he is a plagiarist? Oh, aye, aye, aye…
So this program of his is nothing but a pile of plagiared crap?
http://www.zoranjankovic.si/index.php#content#ajax/getProgram.ajax.php#
What exactly do you want to know? Barjanska cesta is finished, so it Technology Park. Kino Šiška is about to see the start of renovation. So far that’s 2 out of 22 with three years to go
Khm, khm…. This is not what you said to me a couple of weeks ago -> -> Pengovsky Says January 23rd, 2008 at 6:21 pm: […] However, if I remember correctly (and I know I do), Janković managed to close city center for traffic, passed the longterm landscaping plan (which was eight years behind schedule) and is about to finish rewamping public services. I’ve ommited the opening of Technology Park and connecting Barje to city centre, because he had little or nothing to do with it. I will not go into whether you or I agree with everything he did, but the point is that while he is indeed whining about the money the government has taken, he did get some things done in the first year of his term.
http://www.pengovsky.com/2008/01/23/aftermath-of-the-hot-seat/#comments
Are we bragging here with almost finished projects of his predecessors, eh? How typically Jankowitschisch!
There were no problems with the city or state administration or JJ government regarding obtaining all the permissions for the renovation of Youth Centre Kino Šiška, though one is yet to see what kind of youth centre is this going to be… Another version of Metelkova or Autonomous Zone Molotov I hope not. 🙂
And if he fails to deliver, he’ll get replaced by another mayor. Simple as that.
Really? So everyhting is perfect now in Ljubljana?
@Karel: please stop putting words in my mouth or telling me what I meant by my words. And while you can be condesending and insulting towards me (which you are, but I feel honoured to extend you the same courtesy), you will not be anything of the sort towards anyone else who comments here. I thought we were clear on that point.
As far as Janković is concerned: Even he freely admits that he is only enacting what was concieved years ago. It’s just that he says he will do what others have promised to do. And I wouldn’t go as far as to say that everything is perfect in Ljubljana. Far from it. But as you said in another comment: “who needs Ljubljana anyway?” Why trouble yourselves with it?
Karel: please stop putting words in my mouth or telling me what I meant by my words.
OK, I ask you the third time. What is the difference between a “vision” and you “thinking on a larger scale of things“? You do know that every word or sentence have its meaning, don’t you? If you can’t explain it why are you then writing it? To look posh in front of others?
And while you can be condesending and insulting towards me (which you are, but I feel honoured to extend you the same courtesy), you will not be anything of the sort towards anyone else who comments here. I thought we were clear on that point.
Aye, aye Pengy… We are again playing a victim here, I see… Don’t you worry, when I will be condescending or insulting to you will be the first to know. But if you can’t accept an honest and well-meant criticim of your writings or comments of your comments than “Houston, YOU have a big problem”. Not me.
Insulting to who? Filomena? Marko? Why in God’s name would I be insulting towards them??? What have they done to me? Nada. So stop feeling sorry for yourseve, like I am here trying to steal a pioece of your soul from you (or hi-fi equipment) and just answer the questions. 😀
As far as Janković is concerned: Even he freely admits that he is only enacting what was concieved years ago. It’s just that he says he will do what others have promised to do.
So actually he won by giving the exact same problems as his predecessors? That’s funny because my friends from Ljubljana are always more than anxious to persuade me that the people voted his program. Which seems to be a hoax. Na ja… At the end it doesn’t matter as long as Jankovic and his goonies don’t interfere in commenting the state politics. One needs to show first some results in his own backyard and than we can talk business.
And I wouldn’t go as far as to say that everything is perfect in Ljubljana. Far from it. But as you said in another comment: “who needs Ljubljana anyway?” Why trouble yourselves with it?
You are right. But so I could say the same for you and Sv. Miklavz na Dravskem Polju.
@Karel: Vision is something your leader has, whereas thinking on a larger scale of things means seeing the bigger picture. Seeing the wood instead of just trees, if you will. Is that simple enough for you to understand?
just answer the questions
Errr… Why? Because you said so? Puh-lease….
@Karel & Pengovsky: As I have no time to dedicate to this particular catfight as I try to resist the draw of the beautiful sunny day while doing my long overdue homework, I’ll just add my 2 eurocents’ worth on the issue of vision and bigger picture.
While we could argue this ad infinitum, I see both your points, but also think that except for his momentary slightly anal-retentive impulse (or is that the testosterone factor?) that won’t let him cave in, Karel understands the different perception that most people, regardless of the dictionary entries, have of these two terms.
E.g., SSKJ offers this definition among others in point 4 for “vizija”:
I’ll venture a guess and say that to most people, seeing the big picture refers to excellent understanding of a situation, taking all pertinent issues in account for a comprehensive analysis. While the term vision refers to an idea, a dream that one is pursuing.
Thus, seeing the big picture is a prerequisite (necessary, but not sufficient condition) for a true vision.
To conclude, I would like to again point out the beautiful weather on this day that we celebrate culture in Slovenia. And on this occasion, I would like to ask both P and Karel to join me for a drink in downtown Ljubljana at the Prešeren recital.
Just write me at drfilomena@drfilomena.com and we can all sit down and talk down by Ljubljanica river. So much nicer than being behind the computer. (And homework can wait another day…)
Vision is something your leader has, whereas thinking on a larger scale of things means seeing the bigger picture. Seeing the wood instead of just trees, if you will. Is that simple enough for you to understand?
So having a vision is not seeing a bigger picture? Na ja… It still leaves me wondering where on Earth did you get Golobic as man who is seeing trees and not wood. If you ask me he is THE man with the chainsaw. The Brutu.
Errr… Why? Because you said so? Puh-lease….
Oh, what a condescending tone…. I thought that your world knows no arrogancy.