Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

Malo Morgen

As of Monday, DeSUS (the pensioners’ party) is officially no longer a member of Slovenia’s ruling coalition. That in itself is hardly news any more. Prime Minister Borut Pahor now runs a minority government which will have to seek more or less ad-hoc coalitions on a per-vote-basis which has in essence been the case for some time now.

PM’s “Malo Morgen” moment two weeks ago (source)

With DeSUS out of the coalition it will be interesting to see how the party and especially its leader cope with a new reality of their own making. Despite Karl Erjavec‘s exuberance (we’re bigger than Coca-Cola, he once famously said), things are not all that peachy. The party which played the king-maker twice (2004 and 2008) and which has seen a surge in public opinion polls at the end of last year, dropped as much as 50% in later months and now holds only a fraction of its former public opinion support. What’s worse, the remaining two ministers from DeSUS’ quota decided to stay on in the government, flipping a bit of a bird in Erjavec’s general direction. Combined with one of the axioms of Slovene political landscape, that the voters frown upon parties which quit a ruling coalition (i.e. are not team players), it all leads to the conclusion that DeSUS’ heyday is fast approaching an abrupt end.

This of course brings us Zares, whose leader Gregor Golobič also announced he intends to quit as minister and suggested all remaining coalition leaders (taunted by the political right as the KGB – Katarina, Gregor, Borut) quit their posts and in effect either form a new government with a fresh mandate or eventually bring about early elections. Since neither ‘K’ nor ‘B’ did not warm to the idea, ‘G’ announced his resignation effective on the eve of ‘Super Referendum Sunday’. Whether or not Gregor Golobič will be alone in that enterprise of whether he will be taking the rest of Zares ministers (interestingly, all women) with him remains to be seen. Ditto on how and if this particular departure would reflect on Zares’ poll numbers. The latter at the moment suggest that despite all the shit thrown at the party and its leader (and for some of that they’ve themselves to blame) Zares would have made the 4% threshold needed to remain in the parliament. Whether or not the trend will continue after Zares quits the government (and not necesarilly the coalition itself) is the proverbial 64,000 dollar question.

Not that any of the above seems to trouble PM Borut Pahor a whole lot. Last Saturday he threw a big pow-wow with his party’s big-wigs and told them to ‘keep their eye on the chessboard since not all is lost and they still can open up a path to both the king and the queen’. The metaphor was even more elaborate than that and pengovsky is not entirely sure everybody understood the message PM was trying to convey. In fact, it looked as if the PM himself was struggling with this particular metaphor despite being known for his poetic rhetoric.

At any rate, fact of the matter is that Borut Pahor is in much deeper shit than he is willing to admit. Some weeks ago during a regular press conference he went into a mild rant on how those who would have him replaced should first come up with a viable alternative for his position. Even more, he gave some substance to rumours that not only is the political right seeking to oust him from power but that there are elements on the political left who are looking for ways to replace him while continuing with the current coalition until elections in autumn next year.

Just who is seeking to replace Pahor and – just as important – with whom is a matter of some speculation. One of the more wild version was that President Danilo Türk was considering to switch positions, but anyone who a) is remotely aware of The Prez’s ambitions and b) recognises the realities of politics in Slovenia can immediately dismiss such speculation as ludicrous. Namely, The Prez would quite possibly rather gnaw his arm off before he’d trade places with Pahor, especially in the current situation. In fact, it is safe to say that no self-respecting politician in Slovenia would serve as Pahor’s stand-in for all the farms in Cuba.

Case in point being European Commissioner for environment Janez Potočnik, who has always been a likely candidate for the top government job. He has all the necessary qualities: he ranks high in polls, being in Brussels he is removed from the Slovene political cesspool (hence high ratings) and he has an illustrious record having operationally led Slovenia joining the EU and has been appointed EU Commissioner practically immediately afterwards He also has extensive economic background being head of the government Macroeconomic office before taking up negotiations on EU accession which in minds of the many makes him just what Slovenia needs at moment. The problem is he wouldn’t touch Slovene politics with a ten-foot-pole, or as he elegantly put it in his much publicised letter, he ‘has a job to to in Brussels first and he intends to finish it’. Which translates as ‘nothing from me before 2014 when my term ends’ by which time it is understood that Slovenia will either have made it out of this crisis or it will have gone down the drain already. In either case the current touch-and-go nervous situation will be long gone.

The other “eternal candidate” is President of the Court of Audit Igor Šoltes who is always speculated to be waiting in the wings. He to is a man of some ambition, but other than the fact that he is a nephew of a socialist icon/strongman Edvard Kardelj little was ever said why he should or should not become the prime minister. Indeed, whenever these rumours became too persistent he found occasion to deny them and is clearly not a contender. Not now, not in the near future.

The above leads to the conclusion that – if the rumours of a left-wing anti-Pahor plot are true – some people need to have their heads checked. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly the most likely candidates for such an examination come from the ranks of Pahor’s very own Social Democrats. Pengovsky understands that some relatively powerful people within the party believe that the latter would be better off with someone else in charge, that – in short – PM Pahor became a liability rather than an asset.

This line of thinking is nothing short of stupid short-sightedness. True, Social Democrats’ ratings have slumped tremendously, but if the party gets rid of Borut Pahor this late in the game it will go from really bad to disastrous. There is no one, and I mean no one within the party with enough credibility within the party to replace the PM. Some party heavyweights might think that they can protect their positions and regain clout if they install someone more likeable and cooperative as PM, but fact of the matter is that at the moment the SD needs Pahor more than he needs the SD. The PM could easily quit. In fact, pengovsky believes that he should quit his post ASAP if he wants to stay on top of the game. That he doesn’t do that can be put down to – depending on your point of view- determination, going for broke, vanity or naivetë, or a combination of all four. At any rate he made it clear that he intends to stay on, when he said that he will be replaced “malo morgen”

For the uninitiated, “malo morgen” is Serbian phrase meaning “when pigs fly”. It was widely used in the crisis leading up to the break-up of Yugoslavia, when compromise became increasingly impossible. Using “malo morgen” usually put an end to whatever debate there was, denoting that the person who used it will can simply not be persuaded to change his or her position. Thus, with PM using “malo morgen” he basically told that he will be carried out of the office legs first (politically speaking) before he quits the post of his own accord.

So, we’re back to square one. Borut Pahor now leads a minority government which technically has only 42 out of 46 needed votes. Theoretically the government can muster 46 votes needed to pass legislation by means of enlisting two out of three independent MPs and both minority MPs, but in this constelation things can get really ugly really fast, especially since one can not count on Karl Erjavec and DeSUS to support the government. They didn’t do it while they were coalition members so there’s no reason for them to start now. Given that Erjavec quite probably coordinated the timing of DeSUS bailing out of the government with opposition leader Janez Janša, PM Pahor can not really put faith in the rogue party’s promises of being “a constructive opposition”.

Pahor’s options are increasingly limited and they will be even more if and when Zares exists the government. While pengovsky does not expect them to defect over to “the dark side”, they will be one more loose piece of the puzzle the PM will have to take into consideration which is why it is entirely possible that Pahor will seek a confidence vote after the super-referendum Sunday of June 5.

Namely, public opinion polls suggest that the government will lose all three votes on June 5: on pension reform, balck market labour and access to archives. Top priority is of course the pension reform. Should this fail, the government already drafted a law on emergency measures with which it intends to cut public sector wages, pensions and welfare money in order to keep the state finances within manageable limits. Word on the street has it that PM Pahor will tie a confidence vote to passing of this measure, meaning that rejection of the law automatically means a no-confidence vote against the government which then assumes a care-taker role until a new government is elected.

Should, however, the parliament approve the law (which is by no means a given) then in a normal world this would mean renewed mandate for Pahor’s government to continue with current policies. But this being Slovenia and all, it is highly likely that the parliament – opposition included – will support the law, if only to prevent early elections and continue with an unpopular government in power to increase the opposition’s chances of winning 2012 elections.

In the coming days pengovsky will outline several possible scenarios for the benefit of the reading public as well as give you the low-down on all three referendums, so stay tuned 🙂

The Prez Has Ideas As Golobič Eyes Resignation. Plus A Few Fun Facts About Early Elections.

The saga continues. After Karl Erjavec and his DeSUS quit the coalition and the government of Borut Pahor, the ball kept rolling yesterday and today. With the notable exception of Pahor’s Social Democrats, LDS of Katarina Kresal and Zmago Jelinčič‘s nationalists, every major political force in the country called for early elections to be held as soon as possible. Even President of the Republic Danilo Türk spoke to that effect this morning and – what was most shocking to the uninitiated – Gregor Golobič of Zares said that he will resign his post as minister of higher education, science and technology and return to the parliament. And SDS of Janez Janša still maintains that all it takes to hold early elections is a deal between SDS and SD. So, let’s take it one thing at the time.

The Prez with his two cents (source: Office of the President)

The Prez held a press conference where he “commented on recent developments in the country”, which is polit-speak of saying that he chipped in his two cents. His bottom line was that a) the coalition must throw everything is still has behind the pension reform and that b) he’d be quick to call early elections had he the power to do so.

A slap on the wrist for The Prez

As most of you know, The Prez has very limited powers and even him saying what would be the best course of action while we still have a fully empowered government means pushing the envelope of acceptable. Toying with the (admittedly hypothetical) scenario of dissolving the parliament and calling snap elections, knowing full well (and saying as much) that he can not do that, is bordering on exceeding his powers. I know things look bad, but apart from the fact that a junior coalition party left the government and that reforms are not popular, there is not a whole lot that is wrong at the moment. Yes, we can see the contours of a political crisis shaping but we’re no there yet. And until we get to that point the day-to-day politics should be left to the coalition and the opposition. The Prez went out on a limb needlessly.

Secondly, the idea of calling snap (or early) elections is floating around for some time now. Indeed, until DeSUS quit the government, a sort of political paralysis seemed to have crept into Slovene politics as no one wanted to make the first move. But now the ball has dropped, the paralysis is gone and suddenly things are moving ahead with lightning speed. But getting to early elections is mighty difficult. It’s not a bug, it’s a feature. The Prez can not call them and even saying what he would do (or contemplate doing) had he broader powers means walking on thin constitutional ice.

A slap in the face for Zares MP

While it may be constitutionally dubious for the president to call for early elections, it is perfectly OK for leader of the coalition party to do so. Which is what Gregor Golobič of Zares is apparently attempting to achieve. He said in no unclear terms that the main goal right now should be the referendum on the pension reform (which will be held together with referendums on black market labour and access to secret archives on 5 June) and that a new government should be appointed sans leaders of the coalition. Since neither PM Pahor nor Katarina Kresal were amused by the idea, Golobič decided to go for broke and announced that he will tender his resignation as minister some time between now and 5 June and that elections could be held as soon as September this year.

Despite the fact that it looks suspiciously similar to president Türk’s idea, Golobič’s move is actually a small political masterpiece which a) keeps the momentum of actually forcing early elections (more on that later on) and b) solves a nasty problem in Golobič’s own party, the problem which goes by the name of Cveta Zalokar Oražem. This MP for Zares who only gained her seat after Golobič was appointed minister and who used to be a member first of Social Democrats and then of LDS (and was a long time mayor of Domžale near Ljubljana) has long been critical of her president and stabbed him in the back quite a few times, most notably during the Ultra Affair, where she was careful to get as much media attention as possible criticising Golobič and doubting his leadership abilities.

Well, by announcing his resignation, Golobič made sure himself and Zares continue to be among those who dictate the tempo of the game and will have gotten rid of Zalokar Oražem, who will thus lose her MP status and cease to be a major problem within the party.

A few fun facts before everyone gets carried away

But before everyone goes ga-ga with the possibility of breaking new political and constitutional ground in Slovenia, here are a few facts to consider:

-Slovene political system is so stable it borders on rigid. Which is precisely why everyone is getting so nervous these days. The government, albeit a minority one, is still fully functional. Political crisis is possible, but still some time away. It’s just that we’re not used to these kinds of situations.

-Because of this rigidity of the system, early elections are practically impossible. The only way to have them under present constitution is a) for the government to resign and b) for the parliament to fail to elect a new government in three consecutive votes. The parliament can not simply dissolve itself by a majority vote or something like that.

-To ensure early elections by means of either empowering the president to call them or enabling the parliament to dissolve itself would require a change in constitution. To do that, a special procedure must be initiated, requiring a two-thirds majority twice over, which is extremely unlikely the way things stand now.

So, the only viable option to call early elections remains resignation of PM Borut Pahor and it seems Gregor Golobič is trying to force him to do exactly that. The PM does not enthuse over that, but things might change come June 5 and the triple referendum.

Pahor’s Coalition Crumbles As Erjavec Flips Him The Bird

Following Monday’s resignation of minister for local self-government Duša Trobec Bučan DeSUS leader Karl Erjavec once again threatened to quit the coalition. Only this time he meant it as the party’s executive council yesterday voted in favour of the move which – this must be said – only formally confirmed what was a “new reality on the ground” for some time now: that DeSUS was no longer a member of the ruling coalition.

Karl Erjavec doing the Top Gun thing (photo by Anže Petkovšek/Žurnal24)

As a direct result of today’s events minister of environment Roko Žarnić said he will tender his resignation, while the third minister of DeSUS “quota” Ivan Svetlik (labour portfolio) remains in his position, since Erjavec “disowned” him because it was Svetlik and his team who came up with the pension reform which DeSUS vigorously opposes and which will be put up for a referendum vote.

Minority government

Technically, this leaves the coalition of Social Democrats, Zares and LDS with 42 out of 46 needed votes to secure a majority in the parliament and in effect makes it a minority government. The government secure additional votes by wooing the three independent MPs, Franci Žnidaršič and Vili Rezman (both formerly of DeSUS) and Andrej Magajna (formerly of SD) although the latter is unlikely to cooperate since he went independent over the new law on RTV Slovenia (the law was later defeated on a referendum) and was a subject of a criminal investigation soon thereafter on suspicion of child pornography (no charges were pressed). Additionally, MPs for Hungarian and Italian minorities traditionally vote with the government, so unless new ground is broken, PM Borut Pahor can still secure a single-vote majority in the parliament. But for all intents and purposes, this is a minority government.

A minority government is not something one wishes for, especially during times of economic, social and what is shaping up to be a political crisis. Calls for early elections are therefore getting increasingly loud today. Leader of SDS Janez Janša already called on PM Pahor for the two parties to work together and vote for the dissolution of the parliament thus forcing new elections. On the other hand, leader of Zares Gregor Golobič proposed for leaders of all three coalition parties to step down from their positions in the government (which is effectively equal to resignation of the entire government) and elect a new government with a sole aim of attempting to win the referendum on pension reform. Obviously, both Janša and Golobič are playing an angle here but pengovsky suspects their true goals are exactly the opposite of their stated goals. To put it bluntly, I think it is Golobič who is trying to force early elections and Janša who is desperate to avoid them.

Pieces have fallen into place

Consider the timing. DeSUS has threatened to quit the coalition on so many occasions that nobody was taking it seriously anymore. But then it decided to walk out only a week after the National Assembly was back to the full complement of 90 deputies as the convicted Srečko Prijatelj of opposition SNS was replaced by Sara Viler. With this and DeSUS’ bailing out of the coalition it suddenly became possible for Janez Jansa to form a right-wing government, And if he were to convince all three independent MPs to support him, he wouldn’t even need minority MPs. Therefore, it all points to a conclusion that Erjavec’s move was coordinated with Janša and that what we saw on Monday was fully premeditated course of action.

Obviously, there are caveats to this logic, first and foremost being that Janša looks poised to win the next elections, be they a week or a year from now. However, at this moment he lacks one crucial element – an election platform. In fact, he and his party only began to initiate procedure which would eventually lead to forming a proper platform, but as thing stand now they’re not even close. Thus if elections were to be held any time soon, all Janša would have to run on would be his anti-government/anti-reform stance, which would make it very hard for him to explain how he intends to bring the country from the brink of an economic collapse.

On the other hand, Golobič and indeed the entire coalition (what’s left of it, anyway) would benefit from early elections for those very same reasons. While they would probably be up for some serious ass-whooping, but quite probably much less than they would be a year and a half from now. While this may sound stupid at first glance, the coalition has virtually zero problems platform-wise. Their problem lies in the unprecedented unpopularity of the government. Which is one of the reasons Golobič made his move yesterday.

But to have early elections it’s not enough for the parliament to simply dissolve itself as Janša would have us believe. For the dissolution to take place, several constitutional conditions must be met, chief among them being the inability of the parliament to elect a new government. Pengovsky covered the issue in this post, but just a re-cap: Once the PM resigns (or a new one is elected via a no-confidence vote), the parliament has three attempts to appoint a new government nominated by the PM-elect. In the first two attempts 46 votes are needed, while in the third attempt only a relative majority is needed. Given that Janša can muster 46 votes at any time, it is highly unlikely that a new left-wing government will be elected.

That, however, does not necessarily mean we’re up for elections any time soon. Also, Janez Janša might be tempted to take over as PM sans elections via a no-confidence vote. Not only would he thus avoid awkwardness of explaining why exactly did he oppose the government on social reforms, he would also be slightly better equipped to handle the Patria Affair, where he is (let us not forget) about to stand trial for aiding and abetting in corruption.

Wisdom and historical precedents dictate, that Janša skips the opportunity to take over the government, especially after the fiasco in 2000, when shortly before elections when Janša masterminded toppling of the government of Janez Drnovšek and a right-wing government was formed with Andrej Bajuk, only to lose spectacularely in elections six months later. But Janša is not known for learning from his political mistakes, so this will be fun to watch.

Slightly OT: Regardless of the way Janša becomes PM yet again, it would be oodles of fun watching how an indicted person gets elected to a top political office. Only in Slovenia, people! 🙂

Defending status quo long after quo had lost its status

PM Pahor is not keen on stepping down of his own accord, as this would imply that a) he had run out of options and b) he admits to making bad calls in the past. The same goes for his party, which found itself between a rock and a hard place: it has an utterly unpopular leader and no one of note to replace him. But sitting this one out is not an option, so sooner rather than later things will begin moving in that department as well. They might be tempted to try and wait until the referendum on pension reform. But that’s a good two months away and a lot can happen between now and then so that is probably the worst course of action they can take at this moment. As things stand, status quo can simply not be defended.

And this is a lesson which Karl Erjavec will apparently learn the hard way. He quit the coalition over pension reform. Again, there is plenty of historical precedent on quitting a coalition and history teaches that every (and I mean every) party which went down that road was later punished for it on election night. Slovenes simply don’t like rats. Period.

How will it play out?

In the final analysis it turns out that – as is often the case in politics – black is white and white is black. Given the fact that we’re up for three more referendums between now and the summer – pension reform, black market labour and possibly access to top secret archives – there will be plenty of opportunity for the parties to take it out on one another and thus show what exactly is their position (or lack thereof) on various issues.

Early elections are an option, but a remote one. An interim government is far more likely, but who will form it remains an open question at this stage. As things stand now, pengovsky would place a wager on Janša at least attempting to form what he would probably call a national unity government. But that can change, so watch this space…

Borut Pahor Remixed

Pengovsky did his share of music parodies, most notable of them being this one. But this one by David Bizjak takes the cake so far. Slovene Twittersphere was abuzz yesterday with Borut Pahor (Barbra Streisand), which combines the recent hit by Duck Sauce with some of our dear prime minister’s better rhetorical bravuras 🙂

Enjoy!

Borut Pahor (Barbra Streisand) by davidbizjak

On Second Thought, Maybe PM Pahor Should Resign

The aftershocks of the defeat in the referendum on menial work are reverberating throughout the cesspool that is Slovene political environment. Not only did the result embolden the labour unions and their brothers in arms who are now gearing up to bring down the pension reform as well. But the political fallout is also considerable. Obviously, the opposition rushed to take advantage of the situation despite the fact that for once it had preciously little to do with this referendum (as it will have with the next one). This of course did not stop it from demanding the government step down, specifically, senior SDS MP Zvonko Černač using a football analogy saying that the government was shown a red card.

Prime Minister Pahor contemplating defeat (photo: Uroš Hočevar/Delo)

However, if anyone really seized the moment it was the freshly-acquitted leader of DeSUS Karl Erjavec. DeSUS opposed the pension reform from the start, one of the sticking being system of pensions adjustment for inflation. Erjavec’s loyalty to this coalition government was questioned even back then, most vocally by Zares of Gregor Golobič and LDS of Katarina Kresal. But on Monday, Erjavec stuck it up to PM Borut Pahor, calling for the PM to call a confidence vote prior to the pension reform referendum which is to take place on 5 June.

The Quartet became The Trio

Despite the fact that Erjavec often invoked the opt-out clause in this coalition (not that one exists, but it was understood that some leeway in loyalty to coalition is acceptable) but then always fell back in line, this particular move can not be interpreted as yet another stunt by Teflon Karl. Not only did he call on the PM to go check if he still enjoys the support of the parliament, he also “disowned” minister of Labour Ivan Svetlik who, although not a party member, was considered to be a DeSUS ministe. When constructing the cabinet, Pahor wanted Svetlik in particular and Erjavec wanted for DeSUS that portfolio in particular. Thus Erjavec politically “adopted” Svetlik and everbody went home happy. Until now.

With Svetlik “officially” not being a part of DeSUS’ quota anymore, Erjavec says that a) PM should dismiss the incumbent minister and b) he gets to pick the next one. And although the party leadership today voted against DeSUS exiting the coalition, this is exactly what in effect happened. For all intents and purposes, DeSUS (at least for as long as Erjavec is at its helm) is no longer a member of the ruling coalition. The Quartet is once again The Trio

If you’re going through hell, keep going

The perfect storm of political screw-ups and disinformaton that ultimately led to Sunday defeat was well analysed by drfilomena in this post (Slovene only). The way it looks now this was not a one-off event. Well, truth be told, this government also lost the referendum on the new law on RTV Slovenia, but it does not end there. Next up is the referendum on the law against black market labour, then we have the referendum on pension reform and then quite possibly, referendum on law on access to classified material, which was in part caused by the SDS fiasco on Velikovec bombing documents and is bound to reignite it again.

The highpoint, the climax, if you will, will of course be the pension reform. This will probably be where Pahor’s government will make the last stand to implement what remained of the reform legislation, thus at least patching things up for the time being and then seeing what, if anything, can be done. Given the rhetoric and against the backdrop of Sunday’s result it seems conceivable that the government will lose the referendum on preventing black market labour. And even though anticipated, the defeat will not be any less hurtful. If nothing else, it will give additional impetus to what pengovsky calls an “unholy alliance” of unions, student organisations and the opposition and on the other hand making the majority of the population even more tired of constant referendums, thus ensuring that only die-hard voters (mostly those against reforms) will cast their vote.

In that respect, one can sympathise with PM Pahor who yesterday, during a visit to UK Prime Minister David Cameron said that “I’m going through hell with my ministers.“. A most aptly chosen sentence given the situation and the PM, who often likes to quote the greatest of British Prime Ministers, Winston Churchill, might want to remember that the old bastard (and I mean that in the most loving way possible) said that “if you’re going through hell, keep going”.

Bad PR and caring for the common man

And some hell this government is in. Much of it is its own doing, mostly through its disastrous PR. Most of the scandals which rocked the coalition hard spiralled out of control because the initial response was wrong, lacking, or both. The same goes for achievements of the government. Sure, it easy to be smart about it, but in pengovsky’s mind the fact that PM Pahor and his team basically solved the border dispute with Croatia (or at least took it of the agenda) should be written in the history books with golden letters. Instead, everybody treats it as if it is a minor event, not even worthy of page seventeen of Monday’s paper.

On the other hand, we have a leader of the opposition who is under criminal investigation, but still somehow manages to dictate the debate on variety of issues and those he doesn’t hijack, others do it for him. Were the government PR doing its job, the situation would probably not be half as bad. The good doctor wrote about it in her post, while Centrifuzija expanded on it considerably. This hijackings of debate are done under a common umbrella of “caring for the common man”. The reality of course is that no-one gives a shit about the mythical “common man” because he/she is just a statistical approximation. What is actually happening is every interest group trying to forward its agenda on account of everyone else, not taking no for an answer and threatening or even resorting to civil disobedience, no matter how irrational or out of proportion their interests are in relation to the world around them. The same goes for the opposition which at the moment operates on a very simple premise: so much worse for the government, so much better for us.

It is no wonder then, that populism and obvious impossibilities are being used daily. The last in line being a statement by Janez Janša who said that – watch this – “pension reform may not even be necessary, if only Slovenia cut public spending radically“. So, keeping the pension fund solvent by reducing public expenditure? WTF? But it sure sounds nice.

Legitimacy problems

Point being that the opposition, once it regains power (and even Pahor is now talking about Janša as the next probable PM) will have to implement those very same reforms it is derailing today only that they will probably be even more austere or just plain brutal. But hey, if it helps them grab the power, the country can probably take a little more abuse.

Or can it? If anyone had done a sober analysis of the Sunday vote, alarm bells would be ringing wildly. The turnout was 34% with 80% of those voting “no”. This means that labour unions and the student organisation, two of the strongest civil society groups together with the opposition generated a puny 27% overall vote against the government. Let me repeat that: a little more than a quarter of all voters could be bothered enough to vote against the government which is scoring historic lows (only 20 percent or so) in public opinion polls. It seems as if everybody is so busy trying to “get the government” that they can not see that they have a huge legitimacy problem themselves.

What to do?

The Prime Minister, indeed the entire government, would do well to regain control of the public debate(s). Given that the atmosphere is poisonous-bordering-on-radioactive there is little wiggle-room left. Special interest groups know neither fear nor mercy promoting their agendas and the opposition is enjoying the view of the government drowning in the quick-sand of political impossibilities. What PM Pahor should do, is resign immediately. But not, as some have suggested to make way for a new leader on the left, but to do what no PM has done before – actually force early elections.

Pengovsky often wrote on how early elections are practically impossible in Slovenia. You almost can not call them, especially since the parliament will most likely not dissolve itself. But that does not mean it is impossible, provided the discipline in the coalition is strong enough. Technically, the scenario would go something like this: Pahor resigns in beginning of May. This is followed by a 30-day period of trying to find a new PM, while the existing government assumes a care-taker role (which it will assume anyway if the reforms are nixed on referendums). The coalition refuses to support anyone for the post of PM three times over at which point the President dissolves the parliament and calls elections which must be held within the next two months. All in all, taking the summer vacations into account, we could have next elections by autumn this year.

By this Borut Pahor and his coalition would force the opposition’s hand. Janez Janša announced that he and his party intend to win absolute majority of votes in the next elections and that they are also writing a new constitution from scratch, no doubt rearranging the balance of power to suit their needs. But to complete the process, they will need time as they are nowhere near finished. Indeed, the latest polls even noted a continuing downward popularity trend for Janša and his party which, ironically, is also calling for early elections. But for Janša this is only another way to keep the pressure on Pahor, because early elections would catch him utterly unprepared and without a conceivable political platform other than “complete annihilation of anything Pahor’s government does”.

Gamble of galactic proportions

So, in order to have a chance at political survival, PM Pahor should resign ASAP. This does not necessarily mean that he will again be elected PM, but if he does nothing, he almost certainly will not be. Unless, of course, his main rival is found guilty in the Patria case. Either way, it’s a gamble of galactic proportions.

Not Gilcup!

Leader of DeSUS and former defence minister Karl Erjavec and former Chief of the General Staff of Slovene Army Albin Gutman have been found not guilty of negligence and dereliction of duty in the Patria Affair. The court pronounced them not guilty after Higher State Prosecutor Branka Zobec Hrastar apparently failed to prove beyond the shadow of the doubt that actions of the either of the two accused caused 17 million euro of needless costs to the state budget.

It wasn’t them. Karl Erjavec and Albin Gutman (photo: Matjaž Rušt/SiOL.net)

Technically, this is not over yet, because Zobec Hrastar already filed a complaint with the Higher Court, arguing that the District Court ignored important evidence. But as things stand now, this is yet another notch in the belt of Teflon Karl who seems to be impervious to anything anyone throws at him. In this respect it is an even bigger wonder that Prime Minister Borut Pahor managed to kick Erjavec out as the minister of environment on account of waste management and mere allegations of misuse of public funds.

Erjavec and Gutman acquittal on one hand spells bad karma (as far as prosecution is concerned) vis-a-vis The Big One in the Patria Affair – the indictment of former PM and current leader of the opposition Janez Janša, who stands accused of corruption and bribery together with four more individuals. One is tempted to think that if Zobec Hrastar is unable to prove dereliction of duty, how will she prove that substantial amounts of money changed hands (or were about to)? However, from what pengovsky understands, the reasoning of the court in the case against Erjavec was rather simple: the deal with Patria was not yet concluded (i.e.: not all deliveries and payments have been made) therefore it is impossible to say when and if public funds have been unnecessarily spent. Apparently the circumstantial evidence was not strong enough to bridge this logical gap and Erjavec and Gutman walked out free men.

Whether or not this will be the case with Janša et al. remains to be seen. The amount of (dis)information in this particular case is astonishing and one can never really be sure who is working for whom. Case in point being journalist of Delo newspaper Dejan Karba who seems to be rabidly covering the case from a strong Janša-is-guilty point of view but of whose motives pengovsky voiced concerns some time ago. The two admitted to have collaborated on this issue so I’m just chasing ghosts here. But that is just a sideshow, just as the case against Erjavec could turn out to have been.

But before we get to the big finale, there will be fun galore. Not just because Janša has been found to be eschewing delivery of official mail, some of which are said to be fines for publishing personal data of third persons when publicly decrying the injustices which he is allegedly subjected to. Then there are a number of civil lawsuits by Janša against various individuals who accused him publicly of wrongdoing. There will also be funny/ridicolous/outrageous attempts by both prosecution and the defence to derail each other’s case. Not to mention the media insinuations which will be a dime a dozen and will blow everything way out of proportion. Then there’s the government of PM Pahor which is still mulling over what exactly to do about the deal with Patria. Zares of Gregor Golobič is pushing for Slovenia to bail out of the deal and take Patria to court invoking the anti-corruption clause (i.e.: the deal is null and void if there was corruption), whereas the defence minister Ljubica Jelušič is nixing this saying that a) nothing was proven yet and b) Slovenia needs those APCs.

In short, what we are up for could very well be a very powerful courtroom drama with Jack Nicholson as Janez Janša. Just try saying “You can’t handle the truth!” in Grosuplje accent :). But what we are more likely to get is a courtroom comedy which will make Monty Python look like the Royal Shakespearean Company 🙂

Stand By Your Man

Franci Križanič remains minister of finance in the government of Borut Pahor, the PM said during today’s press conference. He went to great lengths explaining why he went decided to ignore the Court of Audit which called for Križanič to be dismissed from office due to dereliction of duty.

Prime minister Pahor and finance minister Križanič (source)

PM Pahor pointed out that the Court’s call was merely a strong recommendation and that it was within his discretion whether to start the demission process or not. Furthermore he added that Križanič is the most burdened minister in these times of financial crisis and that he has performed well under the circumstances. Keeping the above in mind, continued the PM, combined with Križanič’s dedicated work in the part two years led to the decision to keep the finance minister on-board. Thus spake Borut Pahor.

Now what? Pengovsky believes this is a decision which will come to haunt the PM very soon. Regardless of everything this is a case of double standards. It doesn’t really matter if the coalition parties (and this includes DeSUS and Karl Erjavec, who was dismissed on similar grounds a year ago) claim to “understand Pahor’s motives”. They have the luxury to “understand” as this is a pool of hot water PM alone is in. True, Križanič’s job is probably among the least attractive in the country at the moment, but a year ago, during the protracted removal of Karl Erjavec the PM said that a new standard was set. Today, this standard doesn’t seem to apply.

Since Križanič is an old Social Democrats‘ hand who reportedly carries plenty of clout within the party, it is obvious that Križanič’s fate was primarily a question of relationship between Borut Pahor and his party. And with so many open fronts it is likely that the prime minister did not want to open one more. In the short term this means pacifying the party but enduring yet another round of mud-slinging in his general direction. Since the latter would most likely ensue regardless of everything, it may even seem prudent to keep Križanič on the team. But it is not.

With this rather important human-resource victory, the party, especially the faction Križanič belongs to, may get the feeling that it can play the table against the PM. And even though the PM is notoriously keen on compromise, he will not let challenges to his power continue indefinitely. Which means that a showdown within the ruling Social Democrats is inevitable and the closer to the 2012 elections this showdown happens, the weaker will SD be entering the election campaign. Next elections will be an uphill battle anyway, but with an internally divided party, success is virtually impossible.

Secondly, since it is likely that the Court of Audit do more of the same in the future (recommend ministers to be dismissed for dereliction of duty) the PM will be in an extremely tough position, especially if the minister in question will be of a different coalition party. What will the PM do then? Will he sack the minister, reiterating the appearance that different rules apply to ministers of his party than to ministers of other coalition partners, or will he waste even more energy and bend over backwards to explain how that (for now hypothetical) case is completely different than the two we’ve seen so far?

And lastly, the PM made it clear that the decision to keep Križanič as minister was his and his alone. This means that any possible fuck-ups Križanič might cook up in the remaining eighteen months will be the PM’s fault as well. And as readers of this blog know, Križanič is somewhat accident-prone. As of today Borut Pahor must keep finance minister Križanič on an extremely short leash. Whether this arrangement will work, is anybody’s guess.

There’s one other possibility, though. It could be that Križanič survived only temporarily and will resign later in the year, without immediate connection to the Court of Audit report. Since the minister is reportedly negotiating with Goldman Sachs to buy a stake in Maribor-based and state-owned bank Nova Kreditna Banka Maribor (NKBM), it might seem prudent to keep the top negotiator on the team for the time being and have him resign after the deal is made. But this is speculation, especially since there was no official word from Goldman Sachs on the matter. We only know what Križanič told the media. The question is, whether the finance minister was again overly optimistic and if so how long can the PM stand by his man.