Radiotelevizija Slovenija | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

On Second Thought, Maybe PM Pahor Should Resign

The aftershocks of the defeat in the referendum on menial work are reverberating throughout the cesspool that is Slovene political environment. Not only did the result embolden the labour unions and their brothers in arms who are now gearing up to bring down the pension reform as well. But the political fallout is also considerable. Obviously, the opposition rushed to take advantage of the situation despite the fact that for once it had preciously little to do with this referendum (as it will have with the next one). This of course did not stop it from demanding the government step down, specifically, senior SDS MP Zvonko Černač using a football analogy saying that the government was shown a red card.

Prime Minister Pahor contemplating defeat (photo: Uroš Hočevar/Delo)

However, if anyone really seized the moment it was the freshly-acquitted leader of DeSUS Karl Erjavec. DeSUS opposed the pension reform from the start, one of the sticking being system of pensions adjustment for inflation. Erjavec’s loyalty to this coalition government was questioned even back then, most vocally by Zares of Gregor Golobič and LDS of Katarina Kresal. But on Monday, Erjavec stuck it up to PM Borut Pahor, calling for the PM to call a confidence vote prior to the pension reform referendum which is to take place on 5 June.

The Quartet became The Trio

Despite the fact that Erjavec often invoked the opt-out clause in this coalition (not that one exists, but it was understood that some leeway in loyalty to coalition is acceptable) but then always fell back in line, this particular move can not be interpreted as yet another stunt by Teflon Karl. Not only did he call on the PM to go check if he still enjoys the support of the parliament, he also “disowned” minister of Labour Ivan Svetlik who, although not a party member, was considered to be a DeSUS ministe. When constructing the cabinet, Pahor wanted Svetlik in particular and Erjavec wanted for DeSUS that portfolio in particular. Thus Erjavec politically “adopted” Svetlik and everbody went home happy. Until now.

With Svetlik “officially” not being a part of DeSUS’ quota anymore, Erjavec says that a) PM should dismiss the incumbent minister and b) he gets to pick the next one. And although the party leadership today voted against DeSUS exiting the coalition, this is exactly what in effect happened. For all intents and purposes, DeSUS (at least for as long as Erjavec is at its helm) is no longer a member of the ruling coalition. The Quartet is once again The Trio

If you’re going through hell, keep going

The perfect storm of political screw-ups and disinformaton that ultimately led to Sunday defeat was well analysed by drfilomena in this post (Slovene only). The way it looks now this was not a one-off event. Well, truth be told, this government also lost the referendum on the new law on RTV Slovenia, but it does not end there. Next up is the referendum on the law against black market labour, then we have the referendum on pension reform and then quite possibly, referendum on law on access to classified material, which was in part caused by the SDS fiasco on Velikovec bombing documents and is bound to reignite it again.

The highpoint, the climax, if you will, will of course be the pension reform. This will probably be where Pahor’s government will make the last stand to implement what remained of the reform legislation, thus at least patching things up for the time being and then seeing what, if anything, can be done. Given the rhetoric and against the backdrop of Sunday’s result it seems conceivable that the government will lose the referendum on preventing black market labour. And even though anticipated, the defeat will not be any less hurtful. If nothing else, it will give additional impetus to what pengovsky calls an “unholy alliance” of unions, student organisations and the opposition and on the other hand making the majority of the population even more tired of constant referendums, thus ensuring that only die-hard voters (mostly those against reforms) will cast their vote.

In that respect, one can sympathise with PM Pahor who yesterday, during a visit to UK Prime Minister David Cameron said that “I’m going through hell with my ministers.“. A most aptly chosen sentence given the situation and the PM, who often likes to quote the greatest of British Prime Ministers, Winston Churchill, might want to remember that the old bastard (and I mean that in the most loving way possible) said that “if you’re going through hell, keep going”.

Bad PR and caring for the common man

And some hell this government is in. Much of it is its own doing, mostly through its disastrous PR. Most of the scandals which rocked the coalition hard spiralled out of control because the initial response was wrong, lacking, or both. The same goes for achievements of the government. Sure, it easy to be smart about it, but in pengovsky’s mind the fact that PM Pahor and his team basically solved the border dispute with Croatia (or at least took it of the agenda) should be written in the history books with golden letters. Instead, everybody treats it as if it is a minor event, not even worthy of page seventeen of Monday’s paper.

On the other hand, we have a leader of the opposition who is under criminal investigation, but still somehow manages to dictate the debate on variety of issues and those he doesn’t hijack, others do it for him. Were the government PR doing its job, the situation would probably not be half as bad. The good doctor wrote about it in her post, while Centrifuzija expanded on it considerably. This hijackings of debate are done under a common umbrella of “caring for the common man”. The reality of course is that no-one gives a shit about the mythical “common man” because he/she is just a statistical approximation. What is actually happening is every interest group trying to forward its agenda on account of everyone else, not taking no for an answer and threatening or even resorting to civil disobedience, no matter how irrational or out of proportion their interests are in relation to the world around them. The same goes for the opposition which at the moment operates on a very simple premise: so much worse for the government, so much better for us.

It is no wonder then, that populism and obvious impossibilities are being used daily. The last in line being a statement by Janez Janša who said that – watch this – “pension reform may not even be necessary, if only Slovenia cut public spending radically“. So, keeping the pension fund solvent by reducing public expenditure? WTF? But it sure sounds nice.

Legitimacy problems

Point being that the opposition, once it regains power (and even Pahor is now talking about Janša as the next probable PM) will have to implement those very same reforms it is derailing today only that they will probably be even more austere or just plain brutal. But hey, if it helps them grab the power, the country can probably take a little more abuse.

Or can it? If anyone had done a sober analysis of the Sunday vote, alarm bells would be ringing wildly. The turnout was 34% with 80% of those voting “no”. This means that labour unions and the student organisation, two of the strongest civil society groups together with the opposition generated a puny 27% overall vote against the government. Let me repeat that: a little more than a quarter of all voters could be bothered enough to vote against the government which is scoring historic lows (only 20 percent or so) in public opinion polls. It seems as if everybody is so busy trying to “get the government” that they can not see that they have a huge legitimacy problem themselves.

What to do?

The Prime Minister, indeed the entire government, would do well to regain control of the public debate(s). Given that the atmosphere is poisonous-bordering-on-radioactive there is little wiggle-room left. Special interest groups know neither fear nor mercy promoting their agendas and the opposition is enjoying the view of the government drowning in the quick-sand of political impossibilities. What PM Pahor should do, is resign immediately. But not, as some have suggested to make way for a new leader on the left, but to do what no PM has done before – actually force early elections.

Pengovsky often wrote on how early elections are practically impossible in Slovenia. You almost can not call them, especially since the parliament will most likely not dissolve itself. But that does not mean it is impossible, provided the discipline in the coalition is strong enough. Technically, the scenario would go something like this: Pahor resigns in beginning of May. This is followed by a 30-day period of trying to find a new PM, while the existing government assumes a care-taker role (which it will assume anyway if the reforms are nixed on referendums). The coalition refuses to support anyone for the post of PM three times over at which point the President dissolves the parliament and calls elections which must be held within the next two months. All in all, taking the summer vacations into account, we could have next elections by autumn this year.

By this Borut Pahor and his coalition would force the opposition’s hand. Janez Janša announced that he and his party intend to win absolute majority of votes in the next elections and that they are also writing a new constitution from scratch, no doubt rearranging the balance of power to suit their needs. But to complete the process, they will need time as they are nowhere near finished. Indeed, the latest polls even noted a continuing downward popularity trend for Janša and his party which, ironically, is also calling for early elections. But for Janša this is only another way to keep the pressure on Pahor, because early elections would catch him utterly unprepared and without a conceivable political platform other than “complete annihilation of anything Pahor’s government does”.

Gamble of galactic proportions

So, in order to have a chance at political survival, PM Pahor should resign ASAP. This does not necessarily mean that he will again be elected PM, but if he does nothing, he almost certainly will not be. Unless, of course, his main rival is found guilty in the Patria case. Either way, it’s a gamble of galactic proportions.

Referendum on RTV Slovenia: A Night To Forget

The final tally of Sunday referendum on the law on RTVSLO was disastrous, to say the least. The law was nixed with 72.64 percent votes against and only 27.36 percent in favour, with a criminally low voter turnout. The counter of voters attending the referendum stopped at 250 079 or only 14.56 percent. The good doctor rightly called it a fiasco. While the inevitable battle for interpretation of results ensued immediately, there are things that should not be overlooked.

(source: The Firm™)

Bottom line is that the law was quashed, meaning that the existing law on RTVSLO, crafted by SDS’ very own chief bulldog Branko Grims remains in effect. The coalition lost this round decisively and without reprieve. Well, without immediate reprieve, at least. Legislation stipulates that following a referendum, no change to a particular law can be attempted for a year. With PM Pahor’s government popularity points hitting the low end of the twenties, the defeat only reiterates what the opinion polls say. Furthermore, this is also major policy defeat for the coalition which put revamping of the law and limiting political influence over the institution high on its agenda.

Carte blanche

Rejection of the law threatens to open a Pandora’s box of pressure being brought to bear on RTVSLO once again. The existing law allows for it and the referendum result now gives the ruling coalition almost a carte blanche to shape the institution according to its own image, just as Janša’s government did after the 2007 referendum on the same issue (when the current law was confirmed). An overwhelming majority of members of Programming and Supervisory boards will still be appointed by the parliamentary majority. This means it is up to good will of politicians to decide whether board members will be people who know what TV and radio are, or people who will more or less faithfully follow party directives. And being dependant on good will of politicians is never a good thing. RTVSLO thus remains a state media and is eons away from becoming public.

However. While resounding, the defeat is not catastrophe for the coalition. Immediately after declaring victory, Janez Janša and his SDS called for Minister of Culture Majda Širca to resign. This was later (predictably) expanded to a claim that the entire government led by Borut Pahor should resign, since they are wasting time on trivial matters, such as the new law. Following government resignation, sayeth the SDS, early election should be called.

Same old, same old

Pengovsky will not go again over why it is next to impossible to call early elections in Slovenia. But constant calls for early elections are becoming really old really fast and only prove that SDS in fact has no serious alternative on how to handle the general situation Slovenia is in right now other than the fact that it is them who should be in power.

Which brings to the next issue at hand. Despite clinching a victory, the SDS can be far from happy. Having thrown shitload of mud in the general direction of Pahor’s government and in the specific direction of minister Širca, despite trying hard to galvanise the vote, less than 15 percent of people showed up at the voting booth and of that less than three quarters voted in line with SDS’ position (a no vote). Even if we assume that everyone who voted against is a SDS supporter (which is not the case), this means that the die-hard base of Janša’s party ammounts to less than 12 percent of Slovene voters. While still a number to be reckoned with, this shows a marked decline in both power and reach of SDS, which – this must be said – is leading the opinion polls for some time now.

So, in purely political terms the winner of the referendum battle is the SDS (or the opposition in general), but in the wider perspective both the coalition and the opposition will want to forget the episode as soon as possible.

Dangers ahead

As written above, the immediate result of the referendum is that RTVSLO remains state rather than public media. But bad news don’t stop here. Since it is obvious that – while legal – the referendum was (ab)used for specific political purposes and that the majority of voters (for one reason or another) wanted to have nothing to do with it, calls for revamping of the referendum legislation are becoming increasingly loud, again especially from the left side of the political spectrum. Indeed, a recent poll showed that were the government call a “referendum on a referendum”, a large majority of people would a) vote and b) vote in favour of restricting possibilities to call a referendum.

Appealing as it may sound, such a move would quite probably be a start of a very bad journey.

Referendum on RTV Slovenia, Part Three: Mad As Hell

Third and last instalment. For parts One and Two click here and here respectively

Mad As Hell scene from The Network

So, the referendum on the new law on RTV Slovenia is on in four… no… three days. The opposition (SDS, SLS and SNS) is opposing the law and is encouraging people to vote “no”. The same goes for Andrej Magajna MP (formerly of ruling Social Democrats, now independent) whose support was instrumental in this referendum becoming a reality. The coalition is, naturally, encouraging people to vote “yes” and this includes – although he was apparently very reluctant about it – Karl Erjavec of DeSUS.

Even though the campaign was lacklustre in the extreme, it did pick up in the past few days, with especially the “yes” camp gaining quite a few professional endorsements, most notably by journalists of RTVSLO itself, as well as journalists of Delo, the largest Slovenian daily. These were not “all-out” endorsements, but statements that the law, should it be confirmed on Sunday, will indeed establish grounds for RTVSLO to perform its public service better, with less political involvement.

This, basically, is the reason pengovsky will support the law as well. As things stands now, RTVSLO is saturated with political interest. both left and right. This is a natural consequence of the perpetual tug-of-war in this particular institution and which the existing law (passed under Janša government) only expanded further and made, well, legal. But since every action provokes equal but opposite reaction, the ball was starting to swing the other way. This is why this law is important. Ridiculous as it may sound, it just may prevent the whole vicious circle to start all over, mostly by limiting political influence over RTVSLO. Given this (and a bit of time) we just may end up with something resembling a public service television.

This country needs public RTVSLO. It needs a standard bearer, an institution where talent is fostered, nurtured and properly employed. Where ratings are not the only game in town, but come as a result of quality news and other programming. Where news is more than just about crime, disasters and talk shows which make Jerry Springer (remember him?) seem appropriate. Yes, the above is part of life and world around us. But it’s not all about that. I don’t have to tell you things are bad…

…Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TV’s while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be…

…That’s not the way it’s suppose to be. People are mad, yes. Mad as hell. But TV (especially public TV) is suppose to inform and not simply instil fear and loathing to pump up ratings. If the law is confirmed, common sense and quality media have a fighting chance. Nothing more, nothing less. If the law is defeated, then… well…

Referendum on RTV Slovenia, Part Two: A Few Good Men

Today, more on Sunday’s referendum on RTV Slovenia (for Part One, click here). So, what does the new law change? For that pengovsky will turn to Finance daily who produced a rather nice infographic the other day (free registration)

Shows on horticulture are also a part of RTVSLO programming (source)

Under the new law RTVSLO would no longer be a public institute but rather a full-blooded public legal person which will perform both a public and for-market services. The law will also exempt the entire 2000-strong force of RTVSLO employees from the law on wages in public sector (which made them sort of state employees under the existing law) and would institute a 17-member Programming board (now 29 members), a 7-member Supervisory Board (now 11 members) and a 5-man management (now a single person, the Director General). The infamous RTVSLO levy, now at 12 EUR/monthly would increase with regard to inflation (a change in law is needed for increase now), whereas RTVSLO would by law own all assets under its management (now the state owns everything, while RTVSLO manages it).

So much for the basic contours. Given how powers are divided between Programming and Supervisory Boards and management, their composition is not entirely unimportant. The management is obviously central to everyday operations of RTVSLO. Under existing law the one-man management was appointed by the Programming Board (with 21 out of 29 members being politically appointed by the parliament), whereas the Supervisory Board (9 out of 11 political appointees) has no real say other than confirming Director General’s yearly reports. Should the new law be confirmed, the new Director General will be nominated by the Supervisory Board (with 4 out of 7 members being politically appointed by the parliament, with one of those being appointed by the opposition), the nomination will be voted on by the Programming Board (with 5 to 7 political appointees out of 17). After being confirmed, the new Director General will pick remaining four members of his team, pending confirmation by the Programming Board.

Political pressure

Obviously, the main question is, how much political pressure will be exerted (mostly) over editors and journalists at RTVSLO. But this is the wrong question. It is not about how much pressure is exerted, but rather how much pressure can be exerted. Power has a finite quantity and the more you use it the less you have it. Therefore nothing works better than the threat of political influence. It keeps journalists and editors guessing and breeds self-censorship on one hand and promotes journalists who actively support the ruling political powers (regardless of whether they’re left or right) on the other. The existing law put in place just such a system of fear. Vast majority of board members are political appointees, chosen in 2007 by then ruling coalition of right wing parties. They in turn appoint the director general who in turn nominates editors and heads of radio and television branches to be confirmed by the politically heavy board. There is no part of this process where politics doesn’t have an explicit and overwhelming say in it.

On the other hand, under the new law the only part of this human-resource tango where politics would have any meaningful say in it is the part where Supervisory Board nominates the new Director General. And even then at least one member politically appointed quartet of Board members (out of altogether seven members) is appointed by the opposition, specifically, by the opposition-controlled parliamentary committee for oversight of public finances. After that politics is all but removed from the process as the Programming board only has five political appointees out of total 17 members and all other appointments are handled by the Programming Board as well. Even more, as far as editorial appointments are concerned, the management must seek approval of at least half of journalists in any given desk. If approval is not won, the management calls upon the Programming board to take over the editorial nomination at which time journalists of the desk in question may nominate their own candidate.

Therefore, one can say without a doubt, that under the new law the threat of political interference is greatly reduced. This of course does not mean that there will not be attempts or even cases of pressure being brought to bear, but that is nothing compared with the direct line of fire of political pressure that was established with the existing law.

Money, content and ratings

In 2009 RTVSLO had some 118 million euro of revenue, 83,5 million of which was due to 12 EUR/month RTVSLO levy imposed on every household in the country. With a total profit in Y09 amounting to a staggering 53,000 euro (yes, 53k€) it can be said that the institute’s finances have been at least somewhat stabilised, despite the fact that a little birdie tells pengovsky a second look at RTVSLO’s books might turn up funny shit. But be that as it may, the main question (as noted yesterday) is what do those 118 million buy us?

That of course depends on where you stand. In pengovsky’s opinion RTVSLO programming has gone from bad to worse with licensed and/or badly produced programming filling the prime time and being heavily marketed to the point where news programming looks out of place. It should, of course, be exactly the other way around. Or, better yet, it should all be packaged into a more-or-less seamless product of quality television and not just a couple of relatively OK shows serving as intermission between two pieces of televised crap. As it things stand now it appears as if every one has his or her slot – or, rather, plot – where they do what ever the fuck they please, without any regard for overall output. The end result is, of course, sub-par, even in terms of Slovene television, let alone internationally. Yes, I’m looking at you, POP TV…

There are those, however, who feel that polka-laden TV shows in Friday primetime are a nifty idea. That a Dancing-With-The-Stars-lookalike is just the thing for Tuesday night and that a political version of Jerry Springer show is the highpoint of investigative journalism. And just to reiterate this last point: Pogledi Slovenije (Slovenian Views), hosted by Uroš Slak, ran on POPTV for almost eight years where it was cancelled amid what was apparently a clash between falling ratings and demads for salary increase. But hey, if it’s discarded by POPTV it surely is good enough for RTVSLO. Shouldn’t it be the other way around?

Yes, ratings. Obviously, they matter. But public service is more than just ratings. It’s about ensuring various social groups have access to mass electronic media and are able to a) inform the general public of their views and activities and b) maintain cohesion and a sense of identity among their members. It’s also about making sure the public is informed in all matters concerning it. In short, it is about being a public service. A public radio and television.

Minorities

Speaking of social groups, one of the more debated provisions of the new law is the duty of RTVSLO to produce programming for all minorities in Slovenia. While Italian and Hungarian minorities enjoy special protection in accordance with the Constitution (Italian minority even has it’s own radio-television sub-unit), other minorities were only scarcely represented in regular programming. The new law specifically points minorities from former Yugoslav republics and this sparked a few quite ugly reactions along the lines of “why should they live off our RTV levy”, case in point being a blogpost by Marko Pigac (Slovene only) who in the comments to his post even goes as far as “in Slovenia only Slovene is spoken”. Pigac is not nearly the only one who has the problem with care for minorities, it is only the most outrageous example of the above I came across.

In pengovsky’s opinion this provision is a good one. Just as ethnic Slovenes, people from former Yugoslav republics pay RTV levy as well. So in pure economic terms they are entitled to “their slot” as well. But it goes beyond that. It is about RTVSLO being inclusive rather than exclusive. It is about being of the citizens rather than of the decision makers. It is about being public rather than state.

Will the new law make RTVSLO better?

No. And neither will it eliminate world hunger, end all wars and reconcile this nation. Laws don’t do that. What the law will do is provide grounds for RTVSLO to pull itself together. For this to happen, limiting influence of politics is a precondition. The law does that. Drastically reducing the number of politically appointed members of the Programming Board and enabling the political opposition to appoint a member of the Supervisory Board (limiting the coalition to three out of seven board members) is a huge step in the right direction. Hopefully in time political appointments will be abolished altogether.

Having said that, there are provisions which all but demand extremely responsible people to head RTVSLO. One such provision is the power of RTVSLO to form joint venture subsidiaries in such a form that the institution holds a majority stake. The law allows this for purposes of performing for-market services (article 17) and requires any such move be confirmed by both Programming and Supervisory boards.

This does allow RTVSLO to draw upon private resources and expertise, especially in cases where highly specialised knowledge is needed or for purposes of time-limited projects without additionally tasking resources and people engaged in public services. It also enables a clean division between for-public and for-market activities of RTVSLO. What it needs, however, is plenty of oversight.

The law provides mechanisms for it, but – as with programming – it will take a few good, responsible and highly professional men (and women) to make that happen. And that too can be achieved first and foremost by taking politics out of the equation as much as possible.

Tomorrow: third and final part 🙂

Referendum on RTV Slovenia, Part One: More Cowbell!

Slovenia is to hold yet another referendum this Sunday, this time on the recently passed law on national radio-television, RTV Slovenia. While not critical to the government of Borut Pahor (although it came with a price), the result will nevertheless be interpreted as an important benchmark for PM and his team and Sunday’s vote should therefore not be underestimated. But seriously, what is it all about? In short, it’s about turning state radio and television into public radio and television once again.

Boy with a flute, the mascot of RTVSLO by sculptor Zdenko Kalin (source)

The current law on RTVSLO (one the new law seeks to replace) was crafted in 2005 by then newly minted government of Janez Janša, passed by Janša’s coalition in the parliament and then confirmed by a very narrow margin on a referendum called by the freshly dethroned LDS, then still led by Tone Rop. The law was widely seen as a blatant attempt to subjugate the biggest and most influential public media in the country, mostly by changing the organisation and composition of Programming and Supervisory boards, making them more, shall we say, government friendly by increasing the number of seats in both bodies (thus making them ineffective in the long term) and increasing the number of government-appointed members: 21 out of 29 and 9 out of 11 for Programming and Supervisory boards respectively. In addition wages of all workers at RTVSLO including journalists were now subject to the Law on wages of civil servants, making their connection to the state even stronger. They were now in fact employees of the state, overseen by state-controlled boards.

The law was drafted almost single-handedly and vigorously defended by a prominent member of Janez Janša’s SDS Branko Grims, who later concocted an overhaul of the media legislation earning him the designation of Goebbels wannabe. But in all honesty, not everything about the law was inherently bad. One thing the law did achieve was to somewhat stabilise RTVSLO’s finances by introducing a special levy, a solution which has proven effective although highly unpopular (as levies tend to be) and object of many a mockery, mostly along the lines of “this is what I get for my 12 euro?”

So what did Slovenes get for their 12 euro per month? Well, not much. In fact, there’s a general consensus that RTVSLO programming has gone from bad to worse. Not only was political influence plentiful, now it was also government sanctioned. Not only was there less and less interesting content, ratings were being chased by actively mimicking programming approaches of privately-owned POP TV (which is anything but a public service). Thus RTVSLO willingly abandoned its role of a standard bearer in terms of keeping overall professionalism and quality content at acceptable levels. Add to that the constant tug-of-war between urban and rural Slovenia (more cowbell!) and you have one big money-guzzling clusterfuck which has just gone digital.

While Radio Slovenia – the “R” in “RTVSLO” – somehow managed to keep producing quality content and evade serious raids on its autonomy, this can not be said for TV which has provided us with some memorable epic fails, pengovsky’s favourite still being The Bomb in Studio/Big Bad Ultra double bill which was probably one of the lowest points RTVSLO hit since independence, courtesy of semi-competent journalists on a mission and a drive for ratings at all costs.

Shoddy programming was backed by shoddy management and in the end RTVSLO ended up paying shit-load of monies for various projects which either never saw the light of day or burnt cash faster than a Concorde with an engine on fire, adding precious little to either specific or overall ratings. It was as if accordion-based content was the only game in town…. Errr… In the village, that is. Because shows which included a lot of polka, dancing and accordion were a huge hit. Well, I guess almost anything you air during Friday primetime is bound to become a hit. In this case it was the accordion. There you go.

At any rate. The referendum is now on. And the latest polls suggest that a) the turnout will barely reach 20 percent and b) those who intend to vote are split almost down the middle, with those opposing the law holding the tiniest of edges. This will probably go down to the wire (again) especially since there is a lot riding on this vote politically. Which is why it is even more curious that the coalition has until now made only token efforts in promoting the “yes” vote and the opposition did similarly little in promoting the “no” vote.