SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

50 is more than 100

The upcoming elections to the European Parliament continue what pengovsky calls a perpetual election campaign. Starting in 2006 Slovenians went to the polls every year since and will continue to do so until 2010 (inclusive). There will be a short pause in 2011 which will be followed by a super-election year in 2012, when both parliamentary and presidential elections will be held.

This year’s European elections come only nine months after the parliamentary elections of 2008 when Social democrats won by the thinnest of margins and Borut Pahor put together a left-wing coalition which is high on friction factor from the beginning, not to mention that it has an economic crisis to handle. With this in mind it is all the more clear why European elections are seen as a sort of a test for the ruling coalition. Even worse – as two ministers of Pahor’s government are running for MEPs, a cabinet shake-up is possbile (although not very likely), which would throw this quarrelsome coalition off balance yet again.

European parliament is composed of 785 MEPs, only seven of whom come from Slovenia. They are elected by a proportional voting system with a preferential vote, where every party runs a list of maximum seven candidates. Voters choose either a list (a party) as a whole or a particular candidate. The number of seats each party wins is proportional to the percentage of the vote it gets. If a party wins more than one seat, MEPs are seated in the order they appear on the list – unless a particular candidate on the list won enough preferential votes to “jump queue”. On the whole, each seat corresponds to approximately 14,5 percent of the votes cast, although this can vary as a lot of smaller parties might not make it above this “threshold”.

The above suggests that turnout is crucial. Small turnout can cause seemingly enormous fluctuations in votes cast and crucially affect the end result. Thus in 2004, when Slovenes voted in euroelections for the first time, the turnout was appallingly small (only 44%) and christian-democratic Nova Slovenia got most of the vote even though they were only a slightly-more-than-a-marginal political force in Slovenia. Indeed, Nova Slovenia has the most to lose this time around. They’ve dropped out of the parliament in 2008 parliamentary elections and are holding on to political survival by their fingernails. While they publicly state that they hope to repeat the result of 2004, the reality is much bleaker: they can only pray (pun very much intended) to win one MEP. Just as it was the case in parliamentary elections in 2008, the bulk of NSi electorate seems to have moved to Janez Janša’s SDS. Which is good news for the former PM, as his party seems poised to win as many as three EP seats, which would be a first in the short history of European elections in Slovenia and would mean that SDS won the elections beyond the shadow of a doubt.

However – winning more seats at the expense of your ideological allies only goes so far.

Ruling Social democrats of PM Borut Pahor seem certain to win two MEPs. Together with the projected result of SDS this would result for the bulk of Slovenian EP quota and throw the field wide open for the remaining two seats. As I wrote above, NSi can only hope to win one, as do all three junior coalition members: Zares, LDS and DeSUS. The latter stands little chance of success, but remember the paragraph about attendance: the smaller the attendance, the bigger the possible upsets.

Today, five days before the elections it seems like the opposition SDS will win three seats, ruling SD two, at least one seat will go to either LDS or Zares, whereas the seventh seat will be a toss-up between LDS, Zares, NSi and possibly DeSUS and SLS.

Naturally, the result will be interpreted in a zillion different ways. While the number of seats will of course be important, percentages won will be the thing to watch to get a quick snapshot of the political balance of power. Obviously, most people will be interested in the difference between Janša’s SDS and Pahor’s SD. In parliamentary elections six months ago the latter got only marginally more votes than the former (both won about 28 percent of the vote) and if this balance is not disturbed too much, even if SDS wins three seats and SD only two, than it will be safe to say that Social Democrats held out pretty well. Anything less than that, and it will be obvious that SDS regains some ground it lost to SD six months ago.

However, it could be that SD is not losing to SDS but to Zares and LDS, its two major coalition partners (DeSUS being the third). So it will also be interesting to see how the coalition parties will fare as a whole. Remember, SDS expanded its base mostly at the expense of Nova Slovenija (NSi) and it could very well be that it made only marginal headway in the “swing vote” category. If SD, Zares, LDS and even DeSUS rack up a healthy percentage, then Janša, who is increasingly alone in the opposition, will have to rethink his tactics.

There are numerous other lists and parties running in these elections. The Greens and the Youth party are the eternal underdogs which – with every election – look more like a group of dedicated amateurs than a serious policial party. If these guys were for real, they’d have merged long ago, as their platforms are painfully similar. But as things stand, they split up even the poor vote they do get. Then there’s Jelinčič’s nationalists, who are in a bit of schizophrenic position: they are anti-European and yet they run in an European position. Their message is therefore appropriately muddled.

But then, there are what we call “parachuters”, people who have zero chance of being elected and who run on the wildest of platforms. My favourite is Nedeljko Dabić, a candidate for Christian Socialist Party, whose slogan is “50 is more than a 100” and who runs on a radical solidarity platform – that every company must share 50% of its profit with its employees. Sounds nice. But first we have to have companies creating profits!

Fire

On 18 May Slovenian foreign minister ~~Dimitrij Rupel~~ Samuel Žbogar was in Brussels to officially deliver a letter containing Slovenian response to the latest proposal by Commissioner Olli Rehn to solve the border dispute between Slovenia and Croatia. However, agent Sam failed to make the drop, because a fire broke out in the European Commission building in Brussels. The package was eventually delivered by our man in Brussels, so there was no permanent damage.

The contents of that letter were pretty much along the lines of “we want to amend the latest proposal and don’t give a rat’s ass about Croatia accepting it because we feel it is biased in favuor of Croatia“. Namely, Zagreb sent word that as far as it is concerned the negotiation process is over as they’ve accepted Rehn’s latest offer and that’s it. So the Silent Finn summoned both Samuel Žbogar and his Croatian counterpart Gordan Jandroković back to Brussels to explain themselves, but guess what happened…

I guess someone really doesn’t want this solved

Misinterpreting Facts

One of the more interesting side-efects of the brouhaha about Titova Street is a rare glimpse into the way the hardcore political right thinks. After Ljubljana City council passed the motion approving a new street to be named after Josip Broz Tito, right wing parties went apeshit, especially Mlada Slovenija, the youth organisation of Christian-democratic Nova Slovenija. After the motion was passed, Mlada Slovenija’s president Jernej Vrtovec wrote:

As a native of Primorska I’d like to thank Partisans who gave their lives for liberation of Primorska from under fascist regime. When we speak of Tito’s crimes, we do not diminish the struggle of Partisans and especially not their struggle to liberate Primorska. Tito did not liberate Primorska. Our grandparents did, who sacrificed their lives at the altar of the motherland, while their self-proclaimed leader enjoyed the luxury of Belgrade palaces and selfishly lined his own pockets. I deplore the fact that his adherence to communism and his sick ambitions of grabbing power meant that Slovenia lost Trieste and Gorizia.

The above demonstrates clearly how the political right twist and deliberately misinterpret facts to suit their political ends, feign ignorance as to their previous statements, insinuate and hit below the belt.

First, there is the statement that Vrtovec and (by extension) Mlada Slovenija support and thank partisans for their fight during WWII. This is plain bullshit. Mlada Slovenija and its parent party Nova Slovenija are hell-bent on justifying WWII collaboration and especially actions of the Home Guard (domobranci), which – so they claim – fought Communism together with Nazis but never really collaborated. Their entire raison d’etre is based on uncovering “communist crimes”, decrying injustices of post-war socialism and thus justify their inter-war collaboration.

But spreading rumours and half-truths as well as taking things out of chronological order and presenting them to fit their needs is a sport they’re good at (I think there’s a word for that). While Tito indeed did enjoy a luxurious lifestyle after the war, this was not the case during the war. As a leader of a guerilla army he didn’t exactly have the luxury of sleeping in palaces, especially not in Belgrade, which was – as most other cities – infested troops of Nazi Army Group E, which was tied down in the Balkans, trying desperately to catch Tito and uproot partisans, while it was desperately needed on other fronts of the crumbling Third Reich.

Tito himself did not liberate Primorska. But partisans under his command did. The 9th Corps pushed as far West as Venezia region in Italy and had to pull back only after being openly confronted by the Allies. Immediatelly after the war was over, Partisan Army did control both Trieste and Gorizia, but rather than just giving it back, a Yugoslav-American stand-off began and Yugoslavia and Italy entered a long period of negotiations about what to do with Free Territory of Trieste.

Which brings us to the final claim – that Tito somehow “lost” both cities, because he was a power-hungry Communist leader. The statement implies that a) Slovenia is somehow entitled to both cities and that b) if Tito were a democrat, Slovenia (then a part of Yugoslavia) would be looked favourably upon by the US and UK which would gladly give Trieste to Slovenia instead of keeping it a part of Italy.

Which of course is naive at best. Trieste was – not unlike Berlin – a European flashpoint and it was entirely possible that one wrong move would start World War III, only that this time around the Allies would fight it out amongst themselves. There were definitely enough arms and manpower to go about it. Yugoslav and Slovenian partisans were a part of Allied Forces, but that didn’t stop Americans from getting in the way. The notion that they got in the way because Tito was a communist is just plain silly. The stand-off began because Trieste is a vital port city and Americans and Brits didn’t just want to hand it over to a country whose government they couldn’t control the way they could control Italy. It was a simple question of geo-politics.

And finally – the notion that one nation is somehow entitled to a certain piece of land is what starts wars in the first place. Yes, you will hear Slovenes bitching about how “Trieste is ours” and how we were robbed of this-and-that after both world wars. But saying that you lost something you never really had id tantamount to buying a ticket for a fast train to disaster.

A lot of people in Slovenia don’t like Tito and a lot of people in Ljubljana think that having a street with his name (again) is a waste of time and energy. Pengovsky included. But people hate it even more when they are being taken for fools, which is why in the end Tito Street got such a strong public opinion support. But I guess it figures. Jernej Vrtovec was born in 1984. He doesn’t know what can happen if you start rewriting history. He just feels that the world would be a much happier place if history were to his liking.

P.S.: This was an extremely difficult post for me. I don’t know if I should put it down to “Titova-Street-fatigue”, down to weather or to the fact that my relatives fought for liberation of Slovenia and especially Primorska region and that I happen to know that things did not go as smoothly as it might seem sixty-five years later. It’s just kind of sad that brave actions of a relatively small group of people (including their leader), who won against all odds still have to be defended today.

Adding Insult To Injury

Yesterday Ljubljana City councillors passed a decision to name the yet-to-be-built avenue after Josip Broz Tito. This in itself is not news as the result of yesterday’s vote was more or less a foregone conclusion, given the balance of power in Ljubljana City Council where mayor’s political group enjoys an absolute majority.

Tito and his pioneers

What is noteworthy is the date of the vote – 25 May, the Youth Day in former Yugoslavia. Pengovsky is too old to believe in coincidences and this is no coincidence, believe you me. The date of yesterday’s session was deliberately chosen to humiliate the political right wing which sought to capitalise on discovery of Huda Jama mass grave and have Tito’s name erased from those few streets which still bear it. The move, however, exploded right into their faces, as mayor Zoran Janković and one of the more prominent members of his List Peter Božič moved to name a newly constructed street after Tito.

Janković’s move is highly controversial and had it been proposed on its own I’m sure he would have failed spectacularly. But as it were, he got a comfortable public opinon approval rating of 60 percent, most of which we can safely put down to SDS going after removing Tito streets all over Slovenia in the first place. The right-wing cause was not helped by the youth organisation of Nova Slovenija (NSi), a junior coalition partner in government of Janez Janša (2004-2008), which went after Janković and generated a lot of media hype, but – failing to support its rhetoric with action (it only generated 5000 “sigunatures” all over Slovenia in an on-line petition) – overplayed it and came across looking rather ridiculous.

So instead of getting rid of what remained of Tito in Slovenian topography, right wing parties helped create one more Tito Street, in a city which was once already stripped of it. And it happened on the day when Tito’s cult of personality was celebrated in socialist Yugoslavia. This was a rather clever bit of agenda manoeuvring by mayor Janković and it produced a lot of fuming especially with NSi youngsters. Their president Jernej Vrtovec said yesterday that “Janković will not be mayor forever and once he’s gone, so will be Titova Street“.

But this was an easy victory for Janković. Everyone played right into his hand. His real test will be getting from Pahor’s government the money Janša’s government took from him.

Shall We Overcome?

When Borut Pahor took over as PM, pengovsky (a self-important asshole that he is) wrote a public appeal to Pahor, which included the following:

[Y]ou were always big on words. Admittedly, you recognised that at the time you yourself lack specific economic knowledge to tackle the crisis, but will rely on your all-star team instead. However, you should bear in mind that you were not elected to snow us with big words, but because you flat out promised to do a much better job than Janez Janša. Even more – you echoed people’s worries about the economy, while Janša refused to admit that there is a crisis approaching, and this too got you elected. What I am trying to say is, that you will have to deliver regardless of the crisis. You will not be able to feign ignorance four years from now and say “I didn’t know it was going to be that bad”. You knew, we all knew. Except Janša. But that’s why you’ll be the one answering during Q&A sessions of the Parliament.

PM Pahor during Monday’s Q&A session (source)

Monday last, after six months at the helm of his government, Borut Pahor took part in one of those Q&A sessions, where – among others – he talked about how the government is tackling the crisis (transcript, Slovenian only):

We find ourselves in a difficult position, but Slovenia is relatively successful in tackling the crisis. Success will be complete when the crisis is finally overcome and today I say to you that we shall overcome. We shall.

Successful?

In the last six months at least 25,000 people lost their jobs. Companies are going bankrupt. The credit crisis hasn’t abated. GDP dropped as much as 4 percent in the first quarter and some projections say that it will dive even lower. State and municipal budgets are hardly worth the paper they’re printed on. Quality of life has fallen again, as people are cutting back even on the quality of bread they buy, to save money.

Without trying to sound too cynical – if this is success, one wonders what does failure look like?

At the same time, this government is wasting time by non-transparently appointing CEOs of state-owned companies, obviously as a result of political deals, and then – when shit hits the fan – removing them the very same way, and is bleeding much-needed credibility in the process. This is not just the case of Nova Ljubljanska Banka. The same thing occured when appointing a new CEO of Slovene Railways, ditto for appointing CEO of Hit Casions and will probably happen when naming a new CEO of Petrol – to name but a few examples.

Don’t get me wrong. Obivously no government – let alone this one – can work miracles. Things have been done. Or – at the very least – will be done, apparently rather soon. Today, the government will approve additional guarantees for DARS to continue constructing the highway system. The very same thing which added to overheating Slovene economy four years ago might now prevent it from dropping dead completely. Ministers for Development and Finance, Mitja Gaspari and Franci Križanič promised to introduce a scheme to back up banks lending to businesses by the end of the month.

But trying to placate the people by Churchillesque phrases will not work. The old fart knew exactly what to say and when to say it. For example, when British expeditionary forces (the bulk of British armed forces) were successfully evacuated at Dunkirk, people were thrilled, but instead of lulling them into a false sense of success, Winston told them that rather than a victory, Dunkirk was an epic defeat and that wars are not won by evacuations. So instead of idolising Churchill, Slovene PM would do well to imitate him and present the true state of Slovenian economy, its strong sides as well as its weak points. So that facts will be known and the government’s acts judged against them.

This government will not get us out of the crisis. Not by itself it will not. It must win cooperation, respect and trust both by businesses as well as employees. This is done by laying out bare facts as well as guaranteeing that suffering of those who will get the long end of the stick (businesses and employees alike) will not have been in vain. People must know that it will be worth it. Only than shall we – perhaps – overcome.

You’re Fired!

After only four months Draško Veselinovič in no longer CEO of Nova Ljubljanska Banka (NLB). In a surprise move the bank’s Supervisory Board accepted resignation Veselinovič submitted a month ago. The move is surprising because it was a) obvious from the start that Veselinovič offered to resign (but stopped short of actually resigning) only to placate those who screamed for blood when it transpired that NLB extended a loan taken out by Infond Holding (one of many companies in a web that controls Laško Brewery) to help out in Boško Šrot’s takeover of Laško. Even more surprising is the fact that Supervisory board accepted the resignation a month after it was submitted. The debate was initially scheduled only days after Veselinovič made his move, but then the session was cancelled, seemingly to protect Veselinovič and defuse the situation which reached boiling point when Minister of Economy Matej Lahovnik threatened to resign.

Draško Veselinovič during happier times at the helm of NLB (photo by Matej Družnik/Delo, source)

At this juncture is not exactly clear what happened. Draško Veselinovič is a prominent figure of Katarina Kresal’s LDS, who was about to become MP after KK was appointed Minister of Interior. Draško took a pass, however, and enabled Tone Anderlič, an old LDS hand to become MP. In return Veselinovič was named CEO of NLB, a position he was overtly interested in. And since LDS and Katarina Kresal didn’t make a lot of trouble during the coalition negotiations, things just fell into place. With the small exception of Veselinovič being named without a tender, although NLB is still controlled by the state and that the Quartet promised greater transparency in selecting leading cadre in state-owned companies.

It took PM Pahor a lot of energy to calm down the shitstorm that erupted after Veselinovič was appointed, and it is entirely possible that he just couldn’t hold Gregor Golobič and Matej Lahovnik of Zares back anymore and had to give in. Unconfirmed rumours have it that president of the Supervisory board met with Finance Minsiter Franci Križanič only minutes before the session started and this line of thought goes that Križanič relayed a message saying that Veselinovič ran out of political cover.

Whether or not the above is true is actually only of tangential relevance. What is more important is the effect Veselinovič’s removal will have on the relations within the coalition. LDS president Katarina Kresal publicly stated that the decision was for the Supervisory Board to take and that it must be respected. However, is obvious that her party was just denied an extremely strong powerbase and that must not go down lightly either with her or LDS leadership in general (on that note: it will be interesting to see if her authority within the party will get challenged as a result).

On the other hand, this is a very big victory for Zares’ Gregor Golobič and Matej Lahovnik, who were extremely disconcerted by the fact that their former brethren in LDS were re-establishing themselves so quickly, as well as by the manner in which this was achieved. Truth be told, there is more than meets the eye to their continuous calls for tenders to be held instead of taking cloak-and-dagger decisions, but this will have to wait for another day.

And finally, it seems that PM Pahor had to give in to Golobič if he wanted to avoid appearing as if he condones the so-called “tycoon loans”.

However, Newton’s third law applies in politics as well. Every action is met with equal but opposite reaction. And it will be interesting how LDS will hit back. Because hit back it will

Shut Up, Rado!

Since this country is facing the latest instalment of a joke called European elections, it is only fitting to take a look at a political process which makes little sense. First, we must ask ourselves, what did Slovenian MEPs of the first term do for us? Rather than of course running up high costs – covered by the taxpayers – incurred by some twat who was explaining to his equally useless eurobuddies about Slovene potica and the suffering of Slovene mothers. Second. What are we to think about an institution as silly as the European Parliament? It has none of the functions a parliament traditionally has. It is hosting a third-rate debate club, which is deliberating questions as important as the primary source of a Basque bat. And third: Why must we vote for these local clowns? Isn’t this a European election? Why can’t we vote for a German party if we feel that it would better represent our interests? Again, we are limited to the trivial choice of Pahor/Janša-type, albeit with a European flavour. It would be best if Slovenia gave up this expensive an useless circus and lets Brussels know that until European Parliament becomes a proper parliament, Slovenia will not take part in this Eurosong contest.

Economist Rado Pezdir on Vest.si (source via DrugiDom)

The fact that Rado Pezdir is one of the self-styled shock-jocks of Slovenian economics should be more than enough to preclude any substantial comment to a text which clearly falls under the AW category. And if his macroeconomic antics, which echoed those of Mičo Mrkaič, Jože P. Damijan and other members of the Slovene Macroeconomic Forum (or Sexy Motherfuckers as they wanted to be known at first), were still somehow understandable (you cannot expect a Thatcherite to make an about-turn just because the reality had changed), his swipe at upcoming European elections is completely unforgivable.

Granted, European elections and -by extension- the European Parliament (EP) are not all that they could be. I will not go into the history of evolution of EP, but suffice it to say that it did indeed start as a debate club for elderly gentleman who were way past their due date. But it has grown considerably, both in terms of representation as well as in the scope of its powers. Budgetary powers of a parliament are among the most important powers in this day and age. And in this respect EP is not lacking. Furthermore, the parliament approves and can recall the European Commission (the “executive branch” insofar as we can talk of division of power on the EU level), which is another important factor in the game of checks and balances. Even if we can put Pezdir’s lack knowledge on political intricacies down to his economic background (for which he is dully forgiven), his lacking in the basics outlined above is below the acceptable minimum.

With this in mind it seems pointless to go delving deeper into shallowness of Pezdir’s text. But hey . you only live twice, or so the song goes. Maybe in his next lifetime, provided that he does not reincarnate as a member of Tephritidae persuasion, Rado Pezdir will learn that indeed one can vote for a German (or Latvian, or British) candidate or even a party, provided that such a party would find it reasonable to run its candidates in Slovenia and conform to Slovenian legislation on political parties. The fact that no non-Slovene parties or candidates do such a thing proves only that the Slovenian political market is saturated with little room for expansion. As an economist, Pezdir should be able to understand that, but he doesn’t. Which could tell us something about his overall abilities of perception as well.

And finally, if Rado Pezdir really believes that MEPs debate on geographical origins of food and animals, his arrogance and ignorance are truly infinite. It takes only a quick glance to see that during its last session (May 4 to 7) the EP – among other items on the agenda debated credit requirements directives, electronic communications networks, personal data and the protection of privacy and frequency bands for mobile communications.

To cut a long story short: As it is, Rado Pezdir has once again shown that he favours style over substance. This time, however, he is way out of his depth and has ashamed himself as well as Vest.si which ran his piece. But truth be told, this is only the last and most blatant example of the fact that Rado Pezdir has nothing important left to say. And in that respect one feels that Tom Lehrer, a matematician/musician pengovsky only recently discovered, was right when he said that if a person has problems communicating the very least he can do is to shut up.