SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

Is The Tide Turning?

We’ve had two new polls in the last week here, each of them showing a radically different performance by the two top-tier parties. On 10 July we’ve had a Nimamedia poll (commissioned my Mladina weekly), which more or less echoed results of most previous polls by different pollsters (i.e.: Social democrats take the top spot, Janša’s SDS comes in second, while LDS, Zares and occasionaly the nationalists battle it out for bronze).

However, only a day later a poll a government-commissioned poll done by Parsifal Group showed a radically different result – SDS taking the top spot with 20,4 percent of the decided vote and SD coming in second with a “mere” 13,2 percent. Somewhat indicatively, though, both polls are surprisingly similar in recording the vote of the smaller parties. Call me paranoid, but I smell a rat

Anyways, neglecting the fact that we are dealing with a poll made and paid for by the government, two things become almost immediately visible:

One: even a government poll projects that a totally left-wing coalition (SD, LDS, Zares, DeSUS) will get as much votes (27%) as a totally right-wing coalition (SDS, SLS, NSi, SNS – 27,3). If we add Lipa and its 0,8 percent of the vore to the left-wing bloc, just for argument’s sake (I’m not saying they are left-wing), then the left bloc prevails again.

Two: According to government’s own poll, repeating the election result of 2004 (i.e.: forming a winning coalition) can only be possible with Zmago Jelinčič’s nationalists onboard. Then and only then can the existing coalition (SDS, NSi, SLS, DeSUS) with the addition of SNS form a rather comfortable if uneasy majority.

All of the above, however, must be taken cum grano salis. Polls commisioned by the government have a tendency to skew reality much beyond the acceptable and one could safely venture to say that the reality is much grimmer for the government of Janez Janša

Pengovsky’s projection: Despite the short relief the lates poll might provide to for the right bloc, it should actually sound general quarters, red alert, defcon 1 and whatever states of emergency there are. Namely, if your own pollsters can’t plausibly put you well ahead in the polls, then nothing will. So we will quite possibly see the Prime Minister venture more and more into the nationalistic and overly-populistic field of rhetoric, trying to chip off SNS as many votes as possible. However, one extremely undesired sideefect is Zmago Jelinčič thus becoming ever more acceptable for the centrist vote. Should Janša decide to go down that road and co-opt Jelinčič and his voters, he will pay dearly in a future not very far. But the main question remains: is the tide turning? Not for now. When other polls corroborate results of Pasifal, then we can start talking….

Elections 2008 Badge: Will be updaed during the day. The right bloc takes 56 percent of the vote this time around.

Poll data: If anyone feels like it, here is an MS Excel file complete with all the polling data and charts. It includes almost every published poll from February ’08 until present.

A Pint Of Tycoon

Whatever you may think of Boško Šrot, CEO and the not-so-newly minted owner of Laško Brewery, one has to admit that the guy (or – more broadly speaking – people at Laško) managed to retain a sense of humour in spite of PM Janša breathing down his neck. During last weekend’s Pivo in Cvetje (Beer and Flowers) festivites held in the town of Laško for the 44th year running, the brewery cococted a special, Tycoon beer.

The leaflet reads: How to catch a tycoon: 1. Stir it up with your money. 2. Lure it out by pulling the handle. 3. Catch it in your glass.

Very tongue-in-cheek, although I wasn’t there so I can’t really tell you wheter Tycoon Beer is either a buffed-up or watered-down version of Laško beer. We’ll see if good spirits remain with Boško Šrot come September, though…

BTW: more polls coming your way tomorrow

Hey There People, I’m Bobby Brown

According to reports by the antigovernment media (thx, dr. fil), Prime minister Janez Janša made an offer to Boško Šrot. If Šrot were to put Delo back under ~~government~~ SDS control willingly (and, presumably, immediatelly), Boško Šrot will not get arrested. Reports vary from this point on. Delo writes that Šrot categorically refused the offer, while Dnevnik at first reported he was seriously considering it in exchange for total control of Mercator retail chain – which just happens to be the largest distributor of Laško beer. The PM’s cabinet denied the story promptly. But they would, wouldn’t they?

“Eventually me and a friend sort of drifted into S and M…” (source and source)

Wow. I mean. WOW! Holy shit! How stupid can you get? Janša made that very same deal with Boško Šrot in August 2005 (almost three years ago), when Janša and his people got managerial and editorial control over Delo and got rid of Zoran Janković at the helm of Mercator, while Šrot got most of Mercator and a carte blanche for acquiring Laško Brewery. Two years later Boško Šrot double-crossed Janša and put Delo back under his own control, completing takeover of Laško brewery and becoming 1.6 billion euros richer.

And now Janša wants to do it all over again?. Sheesh.

One of the less discused traits of our prime minister is his tendency to repeat his mistakes. But with this he is dropping his pants, bending over and saying “Again, please…”

Who’s Next?

Yesterday I hinted at more possible arrests as elections near. You don’t actually have to be a rocket scientist to figure that one out, but what it is interesting, though, is the fact that these arrests have little or no effect on public opinion polls. Or don’t they? If one looks at it from the perspective of an increase in public support for the rulling party then arrests (or more broadly speaking – the war against tycoons) have failed to deliver. But what if we are looking at it from the wrong perspective?

A sight many would love to see

Janez Janša and his SDS won the 2004 elections by a handsome majority mostly on a ticket of radical socio-economic reforms combined with good old anti-communism and xenophobia. He also promised to achieve a lot of very specific goals (one of them being the regional legislation). However, he failed to deliver on most counts. He failed to deliver to his own electorate. Pengovsky knows for a fact that a lot of his voters are down right disappointedd at today’s lack of a revolutionary fervour which Janša radiated just prior to 2004 elections. So what if Janša is not really looking for a bump in polls but is rather trying to keep his existing polls from going into a freefall? His and his people’s persitency in rounding up the usual suspects and putting them behind bars – even is only ever so briefly – suggests that these moves are yielding political results. And if no result is visible, it must be by design. War on tycoons and accompanying arrests are not meant to increase Janša’s popularity, but to prevent it from decreasing any further. This also suggests further arrests are highly likely. The question of course is – who’s next.

The obvious answer would be Laško Brewery CEO and majority stake-holder Boško Šrot. In Janša’s mind he undoubtedly has a lot to answer for, since the two got along really nice at first but it turned out that Boško was playing an angle and snatched Delo newspaper from Janša’s hands, depriving the PM of a very handy PR tool – and making 1,6 bln euros in the process while acquiring Laško Brewery.

However, Boško Šrot is only a secondary target in this case. Sure, he is worth a truckload of greenbacks and people in Slovenia generally hate other people who do better than themselves but Boško Šrot and his Laško got where they are now more or less thanks to politics and certain politicians. Janša was among them until 2007 and he knows that if pressed against the wall Boško Šrot will probably start oozing information at an accelerated speed. And secondly, if Janša has Šrot arrested, he must also have them arrest Igor Bavčar of Istrabenz. And that will never happen as he ows Bavčar big time since the latter headed the movement which eventually got Janša out of prison in 1988.

Remember, from Boštjan Penko onwards you don’t really need evidence to lock someone up. All you need is a willing police and a willing state prosecution. Both of which are availabe to the PM in large quantities. So, if not Šrot, who then?

Why, Ljubljana mayor Zoran Janković. He is roundly hated by Janša’s supporters as a model tycoon, who not only made millions in supposedly dogdy deals, but also entered politics where he continually refuses to play ball. Janković is trying to position himself directly up against Janša and he is getting quite good at it. Not that he is very damaging politically to Janša at the moment, but that might change in the future. Furthermore, by locking up a sitting politician, the PM would also send a very strong message to anyone who might be thinking about jumping ship – this is what will happen if you don’t do as I say.

Locking up Zoran Janković – even if just for a night – would send Janša’s party into a mass multiple orgasm and since more arrests are inevitable, the Mayor of the City of Ljubljana is high on the lists of possible arrests. This was corroborated by another media company whose people came to the same conclusion independently, as well as (indirectly) by a source within Janša’s party.

The question is – will Janša have the balls to do it?

Fabricating The Facts

So you already know about the Penko debacle, where the state prosecution (especially Attorney General Barbara Brezigar) quite probably abused its powers while arresting former prosecutor Boštjan Penko. Both Penko and Ivan Zidar of Operation Clean Shovel were released without charges. The reason for that is the fact that the investigative judge (a curious function of Slovene judiciary, investigatvie judge oversees a particular case before charges are filed) refused to issue a warrant for search of Penko’s and Zidar’s houses and cars.

Andrej Baraga and Boštjan Penko. Vacationing together or just acquaintances?

And this is where interior minister Dragutin Mate stepped in front and centre. Namely, he said that the investigateve judge Andrej Baraga was biased, since he is close friends with Boštjan Penko and the two even spent summer vacations together. The statement was a bombshell in its own right, but as it came from minister of interior (executive branch) and it openly attacked a particular judge (judicial branch), it was a clear violation of the principle of separation of powers.

It is one thing to comment a particular case (in some countries even that would be unnacceptable, but hey, this is Slovenia), it is quite another to accuse a sitting judge of bias and even corruption. OK, so we knew Mate was a bit cranky since they couldn’t get Penko, but such a statement would require some serious corroboration. None was forthcoming.

Now, Andrej Baraga, the “incriminated” judge is not your average judicial paper-pusher. He is actually the President of the Ljubljana Disctrict Court, who just happened to be on duty as an investigative judge ten days ago. He was also widely perceived as the “government’s man” since he was brought in after Minister of Justice refused to confirm Aleš Zalar, another high profile judge to the position. In any case – it appears that the case against Penko was so thin that even Baraga refused to play ball and denied the prosection any search warrants. In return, the interior minister accused him of being good chums with Penko. Both Baraga and Penko fervently denied that, saying they barely know each other.

So, what we’re seeing here proves that the ruling clique a) doesn’t give a shit about the separation of powers, b) expects total loyality from people who have risen to their current functions thanks to this government even if it flies in the face of the rule of law, c) will use any means necesary to discredit people it feels must be removed and d) will fabricate facts to that end.

Quite a worrying trend, to say the least.

On the other hand, if the minister’s accusations are true, one might ask – how does the minister know all that? Has the police been snooping around not only Penko but Baraga as well? How long has this been going on? And – most of all – who else is under investiation?

This one scares me even more.

What A Wonderful Country!

As I was chewing on my electronic rodent to the point where it actually rolled over and pretended to be dead, just to avoid abuse, and while trying very hard to think of someting witty and clever to write (improvisation is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent deodorant commercial) a thought crossed my mind.

Now, this doesn’t happen very often. Usually it is my mind chasing thoughts, holding them at gun-point and making them cough up whatever it is they are thinking. About. So the sensation of a thought crossing my mind was not unlike being hit by a train. there I was, sitting on the john, all happy and mellow, and suddenly I realized what a marvelous country I live in.

I live in a country where a PM can call a referendum, see an eleven-percent turnout and doesn’t resign. Moreover, he still calls it a resounding victory. He is also caught copying from speeches of foreign leader and still doesn’t resign.

I live in a country where a mayor of a capital can call for a boycott of that very rerendum and survives. Then -when results are in – calls for resignation of the PM. Only a few actually hold the call for boycott against him.

I live in a country where the Attorney General settles old disputes by having the police use excessive force agains a former colleague of hers and she doesn’t resign.

I live in a country where a long-overdue part of a highway is finally opened but is closed only hours later because pieces of concrete start falling of. The minister of transport naturally doesn’t resign.

I live in a country where inflation reached a staggering seven precent and ministers of economy and finance don’t resing. Even more, they’ve nothing to say.

And finally: I live in a chicken-shaped country. Maybe we should let butchers carve it up and form regions

Low Ratings? Arrest Someone!

Ivan Zidar of “Operation Clean Shovel” and Boštjan Penko, (now former) state prosecutor have been detained on Sunday in another episode of high-profile arrests which echoed throughout Slovenia. Zidar, who is still under investigation as a result of Operation Clean Shovel is about to face charges for tax evasion, and is apparently looking to build a team of stellar defence lawyers. To this end he approached Penko, who was just about to leave the Attorey General’s Office. Both Penko and Zidar were arrested after their meeting on Sunday and detained on charges of corruption and abuse of powers (Penko) and luring into criminal activity (Zidar). And then a funny thing happened. A judge refused to issue a search warrant for both men’s houses and cars and the two were subsequently released without charges and even without being questioned. So while on Sunday everone went Again?, on Monday most people went Waddafuck?. So let’s start putting two and two together:

Ivan Zidar (left) and Boštjan Penko (right)

–Ivan Zidar is in rather deep shit, as the case against him on tax evasion charges is rumoured to be pretty solid. So he needs a Slovenian version of Johnny Cochrane. Even more – he needs a couple of them, because there’s no jury in Slovenian legal system and the “if-it-don’t-fit-you-must-acquit” approach is not likely to work.

–Boštjan Penko was (still is) on the outs with Attorney General Barbara Brezigar. She relieved him as a member of a special task-force fighting white-collar crime, since he failed to bring charges against suspects in a buy-and-lease-back scheme which relieved quite a few Slovenians of a lot of money. Penko says there just wasn’t enough evidence to build a case, as the scheme was legal altough murky. He was also a fervent opponent of politics meddling with the work of prosecution. Prior to becoming prosecutor he was also a judge specialising in white-collar-crime cases, author of Slovenia’s first Code of Ethics in Civil Service and the first head od Anti-Corruption Commission.

–Barbara Brezigar, one of this country’s top lawyers is aslo considered one of PM Janša’s most faithful people. She ran for President of the republic in 2002 with support of Janša and his party and narrowly lost to late Janez Drnovšek. She also quashed investigations of arms dealings between 1991 and 1993, where then defence minister Janez Janša and his people repudetly made incredible sums of money selling arms to Bosnia.

-Prime Minister Janez Janša again had a couple of bad PR episodes. The fiasco with the referendum on regions, the thing with copying Blair’s victory speech made him the laughing stock of the nation, overshadowing the end of the EU presidency, which (also due to the result of the Irish referendum) ended with a puf rather than a bang.

And so we can already observe a pattern here: Whenever Janša feels he is losing ground he responds by creating an atmosphere of emergency

When Danilo Türk was elected President by a landslide, Janša started talking about resignation and called for a vote of confidence, where he presented himself as a victim of the bad, bad pressa and the evil, evil opposition, effectively stopping the political momentum of the opposition which supported the Prez.

When his and government’s ratings plummeted further, he announced a “war against tycoons” which culminated early in 2008 with Operation Clean Showel. Three CEOs were arrested, but all they could come up with were charges of tax evasion against Ivan Zidar

And now, when Janša can’t sell the referendum result as a success, when he was caught red-handed in Tony Blair’s speech-jar, when inflation is up to a staggering 7 percent and when he finally “handed the EU over to the French” he can make a comeback in style. And what better way to do it then to send in a SWAT team to pick up a loathed state procecutor who always refused to play ball.

Yes, they sent in special forces to arrest a 75-year old CEO and a state prosecutor. Let’s make one thing clear. Penko, although leaving the office was formally still a prosecutor (his term ended yesterday) and meeting Zidar was poor judgement at best. It transpired that Zidar gave him copies of his case for Penko to study and possibly join Zidar’s defence team. At first the whole thing looks a bit like Boris Popovič’s case in Koper, but Penko was on leave and annoucned his resignation some time earlier and therefore made his intention clear.

Given the fact that no charges were filed and that a search warrant was denied – which means that the case against the two is extremely weak – one cannot shake the feeling that arrests served at least two purposes: shifting the focus from prime minister’s blunders and giving Barbara Brezigar for revenge agains Penko for all the trouble he caused her.

It is quite possible that what we are witnessing in Slovenia is abuse of repressive organs to personal and political ends. Some people are convinced that more arrests will happen as elections near.