The second round of Slovene presidential elections will be held on Sunday and yesterday saw a first head-to-head debate between Lojze Peterle, winner of the first round and runner-up Danilo Türk. The former is supported by Social Democrats, Zares and DeSUS, while Lojze Peterle enjoys support of the ruling right-wing coalition (save DeSUS, which is actually left-wing, but we won’t go there today).
Who will be the king of Sloveve hearts? (photojob by pengovsky, animation by dr.filomena)
According to the law, last polls can be conducted a week before election day and those published on Saturday (and some published on Monday in a clear breach of the said law) showed a not-so-surprising, but nevertheless dramatic turning of tables. Namely: Danilo Türk who only barely made it to the second round, defeating Mitja Gaspari by a fraction of a percentage point, now has an enourmous lead over Peterle. While the latter is supported by some 30 percent of those polled, Türk enjoys a hefty 60 percent support.
Some are surprised, but needn’t be. Although I didn’t cover presidential elections on this blog, I always maintained that Peterle’s only chance of becoming president is winning in the first round. If it comes to the second round (as it did), Peterle stands virtually no chance at all. While he lead a marvelous campaing throughout the year, Peterle fumbled it at the end, when apparently Mitja Gaspari and Danilo Türk (with a little help from the incompetent government) mobilized enough support to chip off a huge chunk of support from Peterle. I’m not saying that these votes transferred directly to them (most likely they went to fourth-placed Zmago Jelinčič of Nationalist Party), but point is that Peterle didn’t get those votes which most likely cost him an entire election.
Because he was deemed a favourite (and failed to deliver), Peterle is now on the run, and conesquently he panicked. He changed his campaign manager Marko Pogorevc and took charge of the campaign personally. Which is of course a clear sign that he’s in deep shit. He also announced that his rhetoric will be much more resolute than in the first round, which means that he admits to making a mistake in the final stages of the campaing. But he’s making an even bigger mistake now, because yesterday he came of as a sort of a bully, jumping and snapping at Danilo Türk.
The main difference between the two candidates (besides their basic political outlook) is the fact that Peterle was always thought of as the “more presidential” of the two and has failed to deliver. Danilo Türk, however, was always considered as a “replacement candidate”, when Borut Pahor of the Social Democrats finally decided to challenge Janez Janša for the more powerful post of Prime Minster. Türk, however, thusfar delivered (contrary to many expectations, including my own) and opinion polls clearly reflect that.
I don’t think I need to explain who or why is my favourite (take a close look at this blog, if you can’t figure it out ;)), so let me just make an electoral prediction:
The way things stand now, Danilo Türk will become the next president with a majority of 55% percent of the vote. Peterle will make a run for it. It will be a valiant effort but it will be too little too late.
Must say last night’s debate took me by surprise. It seems that the lead relaxed Türk and boosted his confidence so he could finally show his flare for rhetoric that was at times sorely lacking in the first round of the campaign. Peterle on the other hand – as you point out – seemed to panick. Instead of sticking to his original explanation for the worse-than-expected result and calling on his traditional voters to turn up for the elections, combining said effort with sucking up to the young population who’d predominantly voted Jelinčič, he is changing course in the middle of the battle. He fired his general with the flimsiest of explanations saying that he needed somebody in the office for the final stretch and Pogorevc has a scheduled absence this week. WTF? A campaign manager on a one-year campaign trail scheduled vacation a week before the election date? Can you insult our intelligence (or your own for that matter) any more, Lojze?! Thus caving in to the Koper bullies. Hey, if you’ve made a choice, stick to it. Now he’s losing the elections AND his face.
Whoops, long comment. Have plenty more to say, but will not bore you guys 😉
Actually, he’s insulting intelligence of his prospective voters…
Oh PS regarding the illustration above… great choice of kings of the people’s hearts (even if they do seem slightly suicidal with those swords), but since we presumably don’t know who’ll turn out on top, you might want to position it horizontally? Or have an animated gif flipping it around (hey, it’s all a game)… Let’s see… whom shall we put on the left and whom on the right-hand side? According to Dimsi, the choice will prove confusing 😉
Funny you should mention Dimitrij “Dimsi” Rupel… While Lojze Peterle was PM in 1990-92, Rupel was FM for the first time, and when Rupel was Mayor of Ljubljana, Peterle became Foreign Minister.
As for the picture… Hey, go ahead, make my day 🙂
I didn’t see last night’s debate (and frankly my language comprehension isnt good enough yet to grasp most of what’s being said) but I will note that I have noticed a happy, fatherly, almost Jimmy Stewart-like, Turk on television programs discussing issues every single day for the last week. I think I may have even seen him baking a cake on one of those idiotic national programs. Beyond the politics of it all, I have to imagine that repeatedly seeing him grinning happily and hugging babies and shaking the hands of babici cannot hurt his chances. If he’s warmed the cockles of my cold heart, I am sure he has done much the same for the good people of Slovenia.
I’d only worry that so many people would feel that Turk already had it “in the bag” that they wouldn’t even bother going out to vote on election day. In that case, maybe Dr. Fil is right and you’re best to flip that card sideways…
Camille, partly because of what you write about in your final paragraph, I agree with P’s prediction of roughly 55% for Türk instead of the current projection of 69%. Give or take a few points.
@P: So the only way for Dimitrij Rupel not to be the Slovene Minister of Foreign Affairs is for him to be elected as Ljubljana’s Mayor?
@camille: Come to think of it, I may have subconsciecously shown my appreciation for Türk with the position of the card – although that was not my intention… Mind will play funny tricks on you…
I do however agree that low turnout can in this case work against Türk.
@dr. F: Re Dimitrij Rupel: Do. Not. Go. There. 😈