The “V” Word

Dubya compared leaving Iraq to leaving Vietnam. (see video by Beebs). I mean: Could. You. Be. Any. More. Stupid..

But hey… I’m game… If he wants to shoot himself in the knee repeatedly, then I’ll watch gladly… It’s just so fucking sad to see the world being ran by people who have absolutely no sense of history.




The above commentary is a must. I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Zee Germans (a.k.a.: I Know What You Did Last Summer)

As predicted, the transcripts of Janša’s confabulation with Sanader are about to surface. But according to this report by RTV SLO’s website (a state television!), which quotes POP TV (the competition!) it was actually the German intelligence service BND which eavesdropped on Janša and Sanader and then told Slovene intelligence SOVA what it stumbled upon, and it was that which SOVA’s then-director (the top spy) Iztok Podbregar reported to the then-PM Tone Rop.



Protection from what? Zee Germans?!? (a clip from Snatch)


Now, why is this important?


1.) Because Podbregar is finally due to testify before the parliamentary Committee for Inteligence Services Oversight, where he is largely expected to confirm what BND has apparently publicly confirmed. This is a very safe position for Podbregar, because the topic of his testimony is now a matter of public record and he will not be furhter endangering the already strained relations between SOVA and BND which were cooperating closely in hunting down Radovan Karadžić.

2.) Beacuse it gives more credibility to statements of former PM Tone Rop, who maintained that transcripts of the conversation(s) between Janša and Sanader did exist, even if they were removed from SOVA’s files. You can always count on the Germans to keep a file on everything.

3.) Because it signals a shift in Slovene-German relations. If the reports are correct then you can be sure that the BND did’t leak this information on its own, but got clearance from someone very high in the German administration. And that should set off Janša‘s klaxons. Not having Chancellor Angela Merkel‘s good ear in a period just prior to Slovenia’s EU presidency spells grief in three month’s time, this in turn meaning that something must have gone completely wrong in relaltionship between Ljubljana and Berlin, especially since both Janša and Merkel belong to the same European People’s Party.

4.) Given the above, one starts to wonder about stories that the PM is in serious talks about selling Slovenske Železnice (Slovene train operator) to German DeutscheBahn and about selling Telekom Slovenije (Slovene near-monopoly fixed-telephony operator) to Deutsche Telekom. Have the talks already collapsed and is this a form of German revenge or just a sort of “peer-pressure”, as in “I-know-what-you-did-last-summer-and-am-gonna-blow-the-whistle-if-I-don’t-get-a-good-deal“?

5.) The fact that state-television website reports a story which was broken by the competition and does nothing to protect the Ultimate Boss could mean (notice the conditional, please) that this government is fast losing its grip on things and cannot even control its own media. Given that media-control is Janša’s speciallity this could mean that he’s in more trouble than originally thought.

And, last but not least:

6.) The Germans are careful as to not make anything official. Both Slovene televisions quote dr. Udo Ulfkotte as saying that BND is in possesion of the transcripts and so should be SOVA, implying that they were removed by Janša’s government, since the latter claims that no such documents exist.


Now, dr. Ulfkotte is not a government official, but apparently an outside advisor to the German government on intelligence matters, which automatically means that any and all statements are his own and are not official Berlin positions. Meaning that this is Angela Merkel is sending a strong but totally deniable message to Janša, hoping he’ll understand it and make the “right” choice: sell two thirds of Slovene infrastructure to German companies. If not, she’ll crush him to solar dust.


Funny thing is, that this may very well be enough to deliver a very strong blow to Janša’s credibility, making him a lame-duck PM, especially if the opposition maintains the self-discipline not to start impeaching him, but letting him cook in his own sauce of espionage scandals, economic fuck-ups and hoping for a screw-up or two during the EU presidency which will have to be solved by the big boys (and a girl).

Belgium Explained To Slovenes (And Whoever Else) In Ten Easy Lessons

LESSON VI : AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY RECENT : THE GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATIONS – BELGIUM’S FINAL DEATH BLOW?

besaweitel08.jpg
(Picture : PhotoNews)

At first I was having a laugh about everything that happened at the so- called government formation talks since the last elections. But I’m not laughing anymore, as day after day, it becomes crystal clear that Flanders and Wallonia are digging their political trenches instead of trying to find common ground. A recap…

WALLOONS AREN’T INTELLECTUALLY CAPABLE OF LEARNING FLEMISH

… is what our current formation leader and CD&V spearhead Yves Leterme said in a pre-election interview the… Wallonian media. Having allied themselves with the Flemish nationalist/separatist party NV-A (no, not the Viet Cong, but Nieuwe Vlaamse Alliantie (New Flemish Alliance)) in a cartel – not to traffic drugs from Colombia, but to win elections, which they did – the CD&V created unrest in Wallonia, where the politicians firmly said they would never accept Leterme – who is half Walloon by way of his father – as prime minister, because he demanded the in Wallonia much dreaded state reform, which would divide federal funding and authorities for several departments – like social security, something that doesn’t sit well in Wallonia, where unemployment is rife – to the regions. Walloons persistently present this state reform as ?a hollowing out of the federal structure’. Furthermore, he made the statement above, which resulted in a media witch hunt where everything Leterme says is being perceived as an anti-walloon and anti national government sentiment. Try to lead formation talks that way…

LETERME SINGS (AND IT MIGHT BE THE BLUES EVENTUALLY)

Everything Leterme says and does is scrutinized. Take, for instance, the fact that a TV journalist from RTBF asked him on the national holiday (July 21st ) if he knew the national anthem and if he could sing it. In response, Leterme sang… La Marseillaise . Huge cause for consternation down South, as ?Leterme doesn’t even know the ?Brabançonne’ is our national anthem, so he doesn’t care about this country!’.

EDIT December 6th 2008 by pengovsky: video removed by YouTube

The incriminating clipFact : 99% of the Belgian populace DO NOT KNOW THEIR OWN NATIONAL ANTHEM. Could have something to do with the fact that it’s not a drinking song (which I find infinitely cooler, kudos Slovenija!), but in fact, Flemings and Walloons only come together as Belgians at sports manifestations. It went so far that the Belgian Football (that is soccer to y’all Yanks :P) Association instructed the players for the national team to learn the lyrics by heart because they could be seen mumbling something or other or not moving their lips altogether when the national anthem was played before the matches (but they keep losing anyway :twisted:). So while Leterme probably doesn’t differ from his fellow countrymen on both sides of the language border, his leadership capabilities are as much in question in Wallonia as Bill Clinton’s were during the Lewinsky Affair. The long and short of it is that in neither case their leadership capabilities should be questioned, because they have nothing to do with it.
SO WILL STATE REFORM BE THE UNDOING OF BELGIUM?

There is no way of knowing just yet, but there is a real crisis. The Wallonian politicians find the Flemish demands for thorough state reform unacceptable, especially the aforementioned social security as well as fiscality (it is true that Wallonian policy makers are a bit more, erm, creative when it comes to taxes and more lenient toward those ducking them). So they launched a counter proposition, in which among other things they wanted to redefine the position of Flemings in Brussel (read : they want Brussels to become part of Wallonia with Flemings reduced to requiring special facilities, just like the francophones in the Flemish suburbs surrounding the nation’s capital.). Even a blind person can see that hell will freeze over three times before the Flemish politicians allow this.

So what is going to happen next? In a surprise move, king Albert II has returned from his holiday and will have talks with representatives of all parties involved in the government formation. This, to my knowledge at least, has never happened before in Belgium’s history. As I stated in a former post, the king’s role is restricted and he isn’t allowed to interfere in political affairs. That it would take such a move to defuse this crisis is a grave indication that all is not well over here. Everybody keeps acting as if the elephant isn’t in the room, but it’s there. The elephant in question is the undoing of this country. What was a mockumentary that had two thirds of Wallonia scared shitless is now threatening to become real (and the mockumentary itself reinforced the belief down South that Flemings are all separatists, which doesn’t help the present situation; thanks RTBF!).

But we’re not there yet. And I personally believe Belgium will at least continue to exist until the next national elections which is, if all goes well, in five years. But the stage is set. While I may be accused of predicting doom, I find it very feasible that even now a civil war could break out if the negotiations take too long. People are following this on both sides of the language border, they listen to their own versions of what’s going on through their own media and all it would take is one wrong word out of the mouth of a Fleming to a Wallonian or vice versa. The reason why I say this, is because we have the extreme nationalist party Vlaams Belang, who took lessons from their Nazi counterparts and could instigate riots just the same as the NSDAP did in the 30’s when Germany was in an unstable political and economical state. I worry about this, as they’ve been keeping unnaturally quiet lately. Even so, with or without civil war, I am very certain that what the picture above portrays will happen sometime in the not so distant future. Can I apply for asylum in Slovenija now? 😉

Dr. ARF

It’s Those Pesky Slovenians Again…

Dr. ARF failed to submit his post this week. I take it he has more pressing engagements, so you’ll have to bear with me today


marketcrash.jpg

I always find it funny how most of world financial experts tend to swear by their models, analysies, trends, historical data, reports, indices and whathaveyou, but in the end it all comes down to a psychological trick.


It’s all about how long they can pretend that a problem doesn’t exist. As soon as someone calls spade a spade they all panic and create a crisis that could have been averted if they all had the guts to talk about a particular elephant in the room. In this case – the subprime mortgages


And of course it was up to a Slovenian to bring it up. Unfortunately this artice in Financial Times Deutschland, where Marko Kranjec, the finally-named Governor of Slovene Central Bank talks about dangers the subprime mortgages in the US pose to global markets is in German, but the point is that he said out loud what everyone was whispering about for years now. That the subprime mortgages will kill consumer spending in the US as the inevitable raise of interest rates will mean that more money will have to be spent on returning the loans rather than spend it (either on goods and services or on new loans).


Sure enough only a day later the exact same thing happens.


But there are a couple of incosistencies in this whole business that I find rather amusing:

1.) The way the media claim that money had just vanished: It didn’t vanish. Money doesn’t just dissapear. Someone is making a hefty profit out of all of this. Probably the Chinese.

2.) The fact that the central bank all over the world intervened to stabilise the markets: I’ve no quarrel there, but I’d like to ask (in a very strong voice) all the neoliberalists and laissez-faire economists, where are your fancy theories now, huh? Shouldn’t the market sort itself out? Mičo Mrkaič, eat your heart out!

3.) Everyone was quick on their feet at reassuring everyone else that this is just a fluke and that it is manageable:: If it were manageable then it would have never occured. Either that, or there are some extremely bad global managers around.




P.S.: As of yesterday, pengovsky is officialy on vacation. 😉

Smart Move

joras.jpg
Joško Joras, a walking border incident, in good company of Croatian police force


Agenda setting 101:

The PM has launched a semi-secret initiative to finally resolve the many disputes between Slovenia and Croatia (maritime border being only one of them). If we – for the sake of the argument – ignore the fact that this is the zilionth initiative to try to do that and that only one (1) has at least come close to being accepted by both parties (the Drnovšek- Račan agreement), then we could say that this intiative has potential.

Except that even Janša apparently believes that it doesn’t.


Forget for a moment that Slovene PM Janez Janša and his Croatian counterpart are still accused of rigging numerous border incidents – thus making their attempts at solving this thing higly uncredible. There is an entirely different telltale sign that the latest initiative is just a smokescreen: Janša is conferring with every political party in the parliament about this.


Sounds lovely. But the cruel fact is that it’s just a way of getting an issue off the agenda and preventing it from being used in election campaign. How can I tell? Because if there was only a tiny chance of actually striking a deal, Janša would take those chances and try to secure a political victory he so desperately needs. By involving all political parties he is making sure that everyone will share the blame for failure and will thus be denied a strong PR weapon in the upcoming election streak.


Let’s look at two possible scenarios:

Less likely: He actually clinches a deal with both position and opposition parties. Odds are that (due to pre-election period) none od the parties – especially the ruling Blut-und-Boden coalition – will want to appear as if they’re betraying national interests and will take positions impossible for Croatia to accept. It will be a well publicised attempt, a lot of brouhahaha and Croatian government will protest vehemently that Slovenia is not proposing negotiations but is giving an ultimatum (which is totally unacceptable in today’s modern Europe, where Slovenia should – as an EU member state – lead by example rather than resort to extortion – I guess that would be the outline of Croatian response)

Janša can then claim that a) it was all the oppositions fault or b) just keep quiet, knowing that the opposition would be ill-advised to press him on this.

More likely: Janša’s move throws political parties in chaos, making them accuse each other of trying to sell out national interests, while he just shrughs and says “I tried, but I can’t do anything with these bozos”. Janša then has the exact same options as above




And so Joško Joras keeps on causing international incidents (someone lock him up for good, puh-lease!), the opposition has to keep its mouth shut or risk looking like morons and Janša and Sanader get to keep the shit-pan we call “Slovene-Croat border disputes” and stir it when their ratings drop.


Smart move, ain’t it? 😀

Belgium Explained To Slovenes (And Whoever Else) In Ten Easy Lessons

Naturally, br dr. Arf

LESSON V : WORLD WAR II AND ITS IMPACT ON BELGIUM

wwii_brussels.jpg
WWII veterans memorial in Brussels. Photo by Guilliaume Dubé (source)

I briefly touched on this in the first two guest posts to explain how a portion of the Flemings looked to Germany to ?liberate’ them from Wallonian/French occupation. This week, we’ll get a bit deeper into the matter, keeping in line with P’s post earlier this week about this subject…

ET POUR LES FLAMANDS LA MÊME CHOSE

The gripes of the Flemings, as noted, lay in the fact they were rated as second class citizens in Belgium. This was especially evidenced in World War I, when Flemish men served as cannon fodder – as many as 80% of the Belgian casualties were Flemish – and were subject of derision of the francophone officer corps. The phrase ?Et pour les Flamands la meme chose’ still exists in our language culture as a reminder of this. Of course, it didn’t take long before a reaction to oppose to this treatment took shape, when the Flemish intellectuals founded the ?Frontbeweging’ (Front Movement). After the WW I, they would take the lead in ensuring a monument was erected to remember the fallen. It was called the ?IJzertoren’, after the fierce battle along the banks of the IJzer river during WW I. One of those aligned with the movement was catholic priest Cyriel Verschaeve. A romantic Flemish nationalist for most part, he would come to play a dubious part in the coming world war…

THE POLITICAL SIDE OF THINGS

Meanwhile, the Flemish hadn’t sat still on the political side of things. The first party to come to prominence was VERDINASO. The acronym stands for Verbond van Dietsche Nationaal Solidaristen (Union of Diets National Solidarists). They were led by Joris Van Severen, a charismatic dandy- like figure who evolved the party’s ideology from fervent anti- belgicist to ?whole Dutch’, which means a unification of Belgium, Luxemburg, French Flanders (the north- western region of France, including Lille and Roubaix, which were, historically speaking, part of County Flanders) and the Netherlands, supported on the Netherlands’ geographical situation under Emperor Charles V. This party was fascist in structure, and Van Severen put together a militia of what he called ?the best and brightest’, which were named ?Brown Shirts’ and later, during German occupation, ?Black Shirts’ after their uniform colours. Interestingly, they were financially supported by both The Vatican as well as dear old Adolf Hitler himself. The first had high hopes for VERDINASO, because they were rabiate anti- communist in nature and the latter, well, it doesn’t take a lot of guesswork to find what Adolf was after, right?

A word of explanation on ?Diets’. It is a name to describe the language spoken in Holland and Belgium in around the 16th and 17th century, but for all Flemish movements, like VERDINASO that strove for reunification with Holland and become a separate entity within the Pan- Germanic Ideology of Nazi Germany. It’s also the basis for the English word Dutch, often confused with Duits (German).

Another pro- German and anti Belgian party, was Staf de Clerq’s VNV (I’m wondering whether the guys of VNV Nation are aware of this :mrgreen:). VNV in this case stands for Vlaams Nationaal Verbond (Flemish National Alliance). They were a force to be reckoned with and even got 16 parliamentary seats in the national election of 1936. De Lerq had a warped sense of humor when it came to dealing with Uncle Adolf’s invasion hunger. In 1939 he wrote in a pamphlet that VNV would be the first line of defense if Hitler ?get it into his head to invade’ and they would kick damn good arse, but that tone was slightly altered into ?Let’s cooperate with our Germanic brethren! They’re cool!’ after Hitler secured Belgium’s addition to Gross Deutschland. They, too, had a military bridage, called the Grey Shirts (guess why :P) and when they were merged with VERDINASO in 1941, the both of them became the feared Black Shirt Brigade.

So, did the Walloons sit still when it came to fascism? No way, Jose! They had REX and its El Maximo Lidér Léon Degrelle. The party, born out of Degrelle’s frustration with catholic politicians and clergy and a pro- fascist and anti- Marxist ideology rose to prominence in the years before WW II and even managed to get 21 seats in parliament as well as 14 in the Senate. They even had a Flemish pendant in REX Vlaanderen. They got their financial support from Benito Mussolini himself.

If you read this, you must conclude we had a great bunch of collaborators over here, didn’t we?

DURING THE WAR

So Adolf invades and it all comes together. VNV had the most clout, as Van Severen turned against the anti- Belgian sentiments and chose the government’s side when Hitler invaded. Still, he was arrested, sent to a prison camp in France, bur murdered by French soldiers on the way there.
VERDINASO, in the mean time, was usurped by VNV, and REX was marginalized, but still in (puppet) power in Wallonia. REX Vlaanderen was usurped by VNV, just as VERDINASO was. Both were forced to do this under German pressure. This didn’t bode well wit the REXists, who massively left the party. Several VERDINASO and VNV prominents who felt betrayed by the Germans, also chose to go underground and fight on the secret resistance’s side during the war.

Cyriel Verschaeve actively started to draft people to fight with the Germans on the Eastern Front against the Soviet Union, still under the romantic notion that Flanders would be free under Germand reign.
VNV officially drafted people into service and actively helped to round up Jews for deportation. They, like VERDINASO and REX, had always had an anti- semitic sentiment, so it’s no surprise they willingly cooperated in the Jewish deportations in Belgium.
Their dreams of Flemish or even Diets/Dutch independence were squashed by the German occupiers, though.

AFTER THE WAR

Suffice it to say that these parties became outlawed after the war and were subject to what is called ?The Repression’ in collaboration circles. Party members were incarcerated, stripped of their citizenship rights and generally harassed, just like non- denominational economic collaborators and women who had ?fraternized’ with the enemy.
Staf De Clerq died in 1942, while his successor had already died on the Eastern Front. The more moderate Hendrik Elias then succeeded De Clerq and was sentenced to jail until he was released early due to deteriorating health issues.
Cyriel Verschaeve, given an honorary doctorate at the University of Köln, was evacuated by the SS to Austria, where he stayed until he died in 1949 in Solbad Hall. His body was exhumed by a ?commando unit’ of the extreme right paramilitary organization VMO (Flemish Militant Order) under leadership of Bert Eriksson, to be reburied in Flemish soil. Eriksson claims to have done the same with the remains of Staf de Clerq, whose grave was defaced and ransacked by former resistance fighters.
Léon Degrelle escaped to Spain and was never extradited because he was close to Spain’s dictator Franco. He died in Malaga in 1994 from cardiac arrest. In the 80’s, he got into the news again, after having given a remarkable TV interview, which displayed his revisionist, fascist and anti semitic nature for all to see.
But the real victims here, are the people who actually followed these men and, of course, their multitude of victims. Through both their and REX’s efforts, a Flemish and Wallonian SS legion fought on the Eastern Front. Suffice it to say, they were looked down upon by their ?true’ German counterparts, which would count for a lot of frustration after the war and result in minds twisted into negating the whole episode and glorifying it, since they were ousted by their own people as traitors when they came home. Some of the most die hard pro Hitler SS veterans today still hang on to their service in the SS on the Eastern Front as their only remaining measure of pride and self esteem. Having read interviews with these people, I am always baffled by their twisted line of reasoning so as to justify themselves and their deeds, while at the same time recognizing that these men are just as well the victims as the deported Jews, intellectuals, gays, resistance fighters and other undesirables under the Nazi regime. It accounts to a lot of hurt, anger and unresolved issues on both sides of the fence. One has to recognize that, especially in the case of some economic collaborators and women who fell in love with German soldiers, these people had no choice than to collaborate. You can’t choose who you fall in love with, right? And what would YOU do if your family’s well being was at stake? Not everyone is brave enough to stand up against troops with the overwhelming convincing arguments that are machine guns, deportation, plunder and rape.
An organization of Eastern Front veterans still gathers together every year, to sing old songs they sang together, recount old war stories and remember fallen comrades while flying the flag of their SS legion. It’s all they have left after a life of service for the wrong side and to be honest, I myself don’t begrudge these octogenarians their annual get- together. It’s all they have left in a life that’s not left them with much after they made the wrong choice for whatever reason. The general public didn’t even remember them until a moderate Flemish Nationalist politician was seen in their midst, after which old issues came to a head again. Belgium hasn’t finished its World War II yet, that much is certain. Only when the last survivor is dead, then might we attempt to start to come to terms with what happened. Might, because as long as extreme right Flemish Nationalist parties like Front Nationale and Vlaams Belang (who used to be named Vlaams Blok, after VNV’s moniker ?Vlaams Nationaal Blok’ when they won their parliamentary seats in 1936) keep using VERDINASO’s and VNV’s political ideologies and strategies – not to mention the latter’s fascist party structure – to keep raising hate and racism and instill fear into the hearts and minds of the Wallonian and Flemish citizens.

And it’s not just Belgium that still reels from the after effects of this war. On route to visit Slovenia for the second time, in 2002, I encountered a friendly Bavarian man on his way to a friend’s birthday. He started talking to me, noticed I wasn’t German and we got to talking. When the subject turns to politics the man suddenly tells me : “You know, I still feel so ashamed for what we did to your country and others in the war”. Tears welled up in his eyes and I was quick to console him and say ?Sir, this was a long time ago and we should be able to forgive and look to the future.” His answer was : “Yes, you’re right. But still…” We sat there in silence for a moment, pondering how a war that started sixty plus years ago still had such an effect on the both of us, talking in 2002. “Bury your dead and move on”? It’ll be a while yet, I fear…

Dr. ARF

THIS JUST IN: Heather Mills and Slovene Gov’t Cancel Cottage Deal

ukanc_250.jpg Rather important, I’d say, so you’ll forgive the double posting


According to a press release by the Government’s Communictaions Office representatives of the Government of Slovenia and of Heather Mills, ex. McCartney agreed to declare null and void a concract to sell a cottage (see picture) in Bohinj to Ms. Mills.

The statement reads that both parties have agreed to do so until full and satisfactory inqury into the claims of the Stankovic family has been made. This UK-based Serb family claims to be the rightful heir of the cottage.

Go figure… 🙂