Category: Elections ’08

Yesterday I gave a passing mention to a poll-rigging faux pax by the ruling Slovene Democratic Party. To cut a long story short, the free daily Žurnal24 (lots of pictures and ads, limited or no useful content) ran a web-poll on 9 March asking people whom they support: PM Janez Janša or the once-almighty Andrijana Starina Kosem, who broke rank and blew the whistle on Janša’s meddling with the media and state-owned comapnies. Apparently the very next day the PM got as much as 115.000 votes, against some 6000+ for ASK. That’s 120.000 clicks in less than 24 hours just for this one poll. That’s 5.000 clicks per hour or 1,38 clicks per second.

A lot.

Too much, actually. Web polls are a shit. Everybody knows that. You cannot control the sample which renders them unsuable beyond filling up some white space on your website. Also, they are hugely unpopular. Žurnal24 went on the record saying that usually they register only a couple of hundred votes on any given subject. OK, say you expected 1200 votes since the question was deliberatly controversial. But 120.000? A hundred times more? No go. It’s just not possible. So the IT people at Žurnal24 launched their own investigation and found out that a computer or a cluster of computers, residingin on an SDS-owned domain was rapid-firing clicks, voting in favour of the PM. When confronted with this, SDS spokesperson at first refused to comment, saying only that the system allowed for a multiple voting from a single IP, but later issued a statement denying any abuse and addind that they “only made use of the voting system at Žurnal24 website“. Blimey! The statemenent reveals something quite astonishing: that they were in on it. This was apparently an orchestrated attempt at manufacturing a favourable result. Even more, the statement shows that SDS finds this sort of behaviour entirely acceptable.

Every party is keen on fixing the polls. It makes them look good and there’s always a chance of jump-starting a positive trend. But to noone will admit it, of course. Except SDS, apparently. Time and again I am amazed and baffled by sheer arrogance this party is capable of. Every other political party knows this is wrong and at least has the decency to try to hide it and make the result believable. But not SDS. It mass-clicked a staggering 115.000 votes for its boss and then went: “What?”.

What amazes me most is their belief that they can actually get away with it. This is not the first time something like this has happened. Remeber Vroči stol, when Janša got 83% over Pahor? It looked really pathethic and one would think that SDS learned something from that sorry episode. Apparently not. I mean, who are they trying to fool? If you want the people to believe something, you have to make it believable. But apparently the belief that power is theirs to have – that they are somehow entitled to it by default – is so deeply rooted within the party faithful that they have no scruples left and are bent on creating a favourable reality than adapting to it an existing one.

This is the party whose president decried the media criticism he was/is facing as opposition propaganda and now that same party would have us believe that 95 percent of the people support the prime minster. This is the party whose president regularely brushes aside far more competent polls as biased and unimportant and now that same party freely admits to abusing a loophole in a meagre and trully insignificant webpoll to create a favourable-if-unbelievable result. This is the party which – for better of for worse – thinks that if theory doesn’t fit the facts, well, so much worse for the facts. Because they know what the public opinion is. It’s just that everyone in this country is hell-bent on removing them from power and no real poll results are published. So they created some.

Sometimes I entertain by myself thinking that people who speed-click or phone-in in favour of the government are kept in large numbers in a dark basement, in a large steel-barred cage, their legs chained to the table, being fed raw meat and a Snickers bar twice a day. But in reality these people are almost like you and me. Its just that they know.

More polls. The latest one was done by NinaMedia and run by Dnevnik daily and POP TV. Two things stand out. Firstly, the poll recorded an almost exact same percentage of undecided voters than a month ago (a rather welcome change from the wildly fluctuating number of “don’t knows” we’ve seen in the last couple of months). Secondly, the nationalists (SNS) led by Zmago Jelinčič recorded a sharp rise in popularity.

We can safely assume that Jelinčič’s rise in popularity is directly and indirectly the result of renewed border disputes between Slovenia and Croatia. As the latter revoked its Ecological Fishery Zone and was in return given a seat on the fast train to the EU, Slovenia has lost its leverage in Brussels and must now deal with Croatia on its own. Its just that the current situation suits politicians on both sides of the border just fine. The dispute is easy ground for scoring cheap political points. All you need is to go to the disputed area, have cameras follow you and start talking tough. If you repaint a border-marker ot two, all the better. This is exactly whar Zmago Jelinčič did: He went into a bush that supposedly separates Slovenia and Croatia on the bank of the river Mura, and went about single-handedly protecting Slovene national interests. Or so he says. TV crews obligingly followed and participated in this charade and made Zmago the day’s headline. Cocksucking supreme, if you ask me. Why not just ignore the guy?

In any case, Zmago seems to have struck a chord with some of the 2,7% additional voters who support him. I would sumbit to you, however, that a large proportion of his newfound support materialised “by extension”, so to speak. Namely, anytime Croatia is on the menu, people instinctively think of Jelinčič and his anti-Croatian rhetoric. In any case, Zmago Jelinčič and his SNS are the only party making any serious gains this time around

Having said that, the other part of the nationalist wing, Sašo Peče’s Lipa is again loitering around the 1% mark, which isn’t exactly good news for Sašo, as he should be making headlines by now, having a new party and all. In other races, Katarina Kresal’s LDS seems to have closed the gap on Zares, and is now trailing the party led by Gregor Golobič by a mere 1,1 percent, while SD and SDS kept first and second place respectively, with both parties losing some support but still breathing down each other’s neck.

We now have two sets of polls for a sort-of-longitudal comparison. If we take Delo’s polls of February and March and look at them side by side – well, one above another, actually – with Ninamedia’s polls of the same period, we can recognize some similarities, especially as far as LDS, Zares, SNS and SLS are concerned (the latter just can’t get off the ground). But there are also big differences: In Delo poll Janša’s SDS took the lead with Pahor’s Social democrats coming in second, while DeSUS and NSi enjoyed a hefty addition to their popularity, while Ninamedia poll detects an opposite situation, with SD marginally leading over SDS and DeSUS and NSi taking a slump

Pengovsky’s projecton: As other subjects grow more imporant in this campaign, Jelinčič’s bump is not expected to last. But this is fast becoming an eight (OK, at least seven) horse race, where a development in any of the smaller parties might have huge impact on any of the two big parties. So a continuosly strong showing by Zares had made its president Gregor Golobič self-confident to the point of not excluding joining a ruling coalition, although he was very conservative about his party’s goals as late as December last. But apparenly a lot can change in three months. So, if Zares and LDS (and possibly DeSUS) manage to hold on to or even improve their current ratings, their importance might grow far beyond their size as Borut Pahor will be pressed from all sides to form a centre-left government (with him being the centre – in more ways than one).

Oh, and while we’re on the polls issue: POP TV reports that SDS went mouse-click happy (Slovene only, I’m afraid) as one or more computers within its domain were used to vote on a web-poll run by Žurnal24 daily. What apparently happened is that SDS organised a click campaign and bumped the support for PM Janša in the poll. Before the trick was spotted, the poll said that 95% of responeed supported the PM against Andirjana Starina Kosem . Can’t say I’m surprised, really, because we’we seen something like that in Vroči Stol, when 83% of respondees supported Janez Janša against Borut Pahor. When will these guys learn that old tricks just don’t work any more?

EDIT: Olimpija lost yesterday. Bugger.

I almost missed it, but there was another poll by Episcenter published Sunday last. Please note, that this poll too – as all other Episcenter polls in this series – was commisioned by the government, which might have influenced the results. But be that as it may, two things are immediately obvious: the ruling SDS of PM Janša has surpassed its oppositon rival, the Social Democrats for the first time. In terms of total percentage points both parties have gained, but while the SD recorded only a token increase in support, SDS made substantial headway. Secondly, the “don’t knows”: this time around Episcenter records a staggeringly low percentage of undecided voters – a mere 19 percent.

In other interesting races: Zares kept the third place, while LDS (which some of the more prominent Zares and SD members used to call home) gained slightly, closing the gap a bit. The pensioners’ party (DeSUS) gained as well, which means that its eloquent-if-somewhat-sleazy boss does indeed know how to dodge bullets and survive politically. Supporters of Zmago Jelinčič (the nationalist party – SNS) seem to have remained unfazed by formation of rival nationalist party Lipa (headed by former SNS second-in-command Sašo Peče). The latter got a sole percentage point, but that is actually better than expected, as Peče & Co. have little to show for at the moment – save a nice-looking website.

And finally – christian democrat NSi (Nova Slovenija) and it’s slightly more enterpreneurial cousin-party, Slovene People’s Party (SLS) are hovering around the 3-percent mark, with NSi gaining the upper hand this time around. This is the longitudal graph representing all the polls in a single timeline:

What to say? For starters, if the exceptionally low number of the undecideds persists, we can assume that the polarization has already begun and that a visciously bloody fight for scrap-votes will ensue the minute the EU presidency end. Quite possibly, we won’t even have to wait until then as the SD will apparently have to do something, fast to prevent its ratings spiraling out of control. Yes, there is the presidency and the anti-tycoon drive which have bumbed up Janša’s ratings (as predicted), but that doesn’t mean Borut Pahor can sit on his pretty arse and do nothing but wait. They seem to be aware of that, as they’ve hired the same campaign managers which have helped the likes of Bill Clinton and Hugo Chavez get elected (link kindly provided by abaris, any relation to yesterday’s post is coincidential yet intentional 🙂 ).

What amuses me, though, is DeSUS. Namely: I’ve said on a number of occasions that pensioner’s party and similar cleavage parties (don’t google it 🙂 ) should be illegal, as they go against the essence of democracy (in my opinion at least political platforms should be shared based on beliefs and ideology and not based on age). But they seem to be turning into the little party that could.

Most of you remember the referendum on Triglav Insurance, which was held on the same day than last year’s presidential elections and when the voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposed privatisation of the state-owned financial heavy-weight. DeSUS and SLS went apeshit over it and demanded that the company’s controlling share be trasfered to the pension fund instead of being sold. Exactly a week ago the government passed a bill which proposed that a 34-percent share be transfered to the said fund, hopefully making it solvent for the forseable future. Having achieved this, DeSUS’s president Karel Erjavec seems to have the last laugh for now, as he actually does have something to show for joining the coalition.

Namely, three-and-a-half years ago Erjavec took a lot of heat withing the party, when some of its more fervernt members vowed to cut their remaining leg and burn their walking canes before going in bed with Janez Janša. But Erjavec maintained that their interests will be better protected if they join the colalition as opposed to remaining outside and bitching about it. With Triglav, Erjavec made his point big time. The added bonus being that he seems to bask in glory alone, as SLS is still trying to pick itself up.

Borut Pahor and Dimitrij Rupel in a romantic setting.

A little birdie told me Borut Pahor asked Dimitrij Rupel if he’d be willing to stay on as foreign minister. I went LOL, OMG and WTF simultaneously. If the rumour is true, than two things are possible: a) either Borut Pahor doesn’t really want to win the upcoming elections or b) someone big and powerful won’t throw money at you if you don’t co-opt a the last, best defence of US interests in this part of the world.

But hopefully the rumour is not true.

Delo ran a new poll yesterday, a month since pengovsky started following polls prior to autumn parliamentary elections. This poll is the first one done in a post-Clean Shovel enviroment and in this respect it is mildly surprising, to say the least.

Namely, there is no visible effect of the pre-dawn raids on construction powerplayers and supposed tax-evaders. What we are seeing, though, is a substaintial headway Zares seems to have made over LDS. How or why this happened is at this point a bit of a mistery – unless you are willing to subscribe to the theory that a battle for the legacy of the late Janez Drnovšek just ensewed and Zares won the first round.

In the duel between SD and SDS, things are interesting as well. As noted already, there was no spectacular gain on the part of SDS which we might be able to attribute to Operation Clean Shovel. So the rise in support for SDS can be considered “organic” in my view. The PM is on the news a lot lately (presiding the EU and all) and correspondingly the frequency of Borut Pahor seeing himself on the telly has fallen dramatically – there is only so much politics you can squeeze in the main news bulletin 🙂 On the other hand, Social Democrats are still bleeding support. Not at an alarming rate anyhow, but their strategists should not worry about their losses, but about gains SDS has made. Namely: if we took only Delo’s polls of yesterday and of a month ago, we see that SDS made substantial gains while SD kept on losing, even though it still kept the top spot.

Finally, we can now take a look at the entire month of February. As polls were made by different pollsters on different samples, the graph below is not exactly accurate, but it can give you a general idea of what is going on: SDS and SD continue breathing down each other’s necks, while the rest of the political gang fight for the leftovers – but there’s enough of that to go around as even those parties which are currently below the parliamentary treshold (the red dashed line) will – as things stand now – make it across to the safe territory. A notable exception to the rule is Zares, which pushed ahead of the “general populatation” and is loitering a coupe of percentage points above the rest of the parties, but is far far below the leading duo.

Pengovsky’s projection: I think we might still get to see a slight bump in SDS’s ratings as a result of the anti-corruption sweep, but it will not last long. But barring a major embarasment, the rise in support of the ruling party will continue, at least as long as the EU presidency lasts. Then the shit will hit the fan, and it the race will go down to the wire. Until then, however, the nine political parties (Lipa included, as it was formarlly established on Saturday) will want to secure the best possible starting positions.

So, we’ve got two new polls as of a couple of days ago. One by Večer daily and one by Ninamedia, each very different from the other. And while Ninamedia’s poll keeps within the broad trend shown by the other polls, Večer’s poll shows a staggeringly different result.

The thing that stands out the most with Večer poll is a large percentage of the undecided vote – even larger than in the Parsifal poll taken a week ago.Funny thing is, though, that both polls (Večer and Parsifal) show a similiarily high percentage of undecided voters and correspondingly low numbers for the two main rivals: Janez Janša‘s rulling Slovene Democratic Party (SDS) and Borut Pahor‘s opposition Social Democrats (SD). Furthermore, the SDS has a slight lead over SD, which is another similarity with the Parsifal poll. And if you look at the Episcenter poll, you’ll notice that this poll too records a lead of SDS over SD but a very low number of the undecided vote – very much like Ninamedia, which has the lowest number of undecided voters since this blog started summing up the polls (three weeks ago).

Now, it has to be noted, that Večer’s poll indicates a statistical error of some 3,5 percent, which means that results for NSi, DeSUS, SLS and Lipa are practically useless, as their results could vary significantly with a slighlty different sample. It would be interesting to see, however, statistical errors of the other polls. I suspect it is smaller as their sample is somewhat higher, but all-in-all this might prove to be a crucial piece of information. What is interesting, though, is the fact that two “camps” of polls seem to be developing. One with a high rate of the undecided vote and with the two main parties being tied (or with SDS slightly ahead), and the other with a smaller percentage of the undecided vote and with SD slightly ahead of SDS. The reason for it? Technically, I think we can put it down to a different sample. Is it political? Could be. Too early to tell…

Pengovsky’s projection:: Obviously the two main conteders remain the same and I suspect that as time passes the battle between SDS and SD will turn into a battle between Janez Janša and Borut Pahor. Further down the poll the nationalists seem to be comfortably running circles around the 5% mark, but we’ll see if Sašo Peče will steal the limelight as he and his renegade nationalists will officially form Slovenska lipa party on March 1. Another duel to watch is of course the LDS/Zares thing, where the latter seems to be ahead on the whole, but differences between the two parties are minimal. Given the peculiarities of Slovene voting body, I still think all of the polled parties will make it across the four-percent-treshold.

We’ve had anohter new poll yesterday, this one done by Episcenter pollsters. This poll, still done in the days prior to Operation Clean Shovel, shows that both Social Democrats and the ruling SDS rate at 22% which is definitely bad news for Borut Pahor. The short time span in which all polls were conducted means that were are seing the same situation from different angles rather than a continuing trend, but still…

This poll is interesting for one more reason. It has the lowest percentage of undecided voters and higher percentage of decided voters for all parties except DeSUS and Zares. Now, obviously we can put that down to a slightly different sample, perhaps focusing on rural Slovenia (I’m guessing here) – especially since SLS, SNS and NSi got a substantially higher percentage than in competing polls, but it would appear that pengovsky’s previous assesment of all the smaller parties making it across the 4% treshold is probably correct. Except Lipa, which noone polls at the moment, as Sašo Peče still has to formally create a party.

Pengovsky’s projection: much like the last time around. SDS and SD will increasingly go for each other’s neck, as will probably LDS and Zares. Smaller parties are looking to make it to the parliament, if something big doesn’t happend and we don’t have a landslide victory by either of the big two. Barring that a coalition between SDS and SD looks likely to happen, but we’re still a long way from autumn.