Author: pengovsky

Agent provocateur and an occasional scribe.

Get The Funk Out!

Positive Slovenia is again dogged by MP problems. After it transpired that durng Cold War the gentleman journalist Mitja Meršol, MP did some legwork for Yugoslav secret service on the side, the party was again faced with a problematic MP. This time it is Borut Ambrožič who while writing his M.A. thesis on asbestos allegedly copied (well, stole) large portions of another student’s B.A. thesis.


Borut Ambrožič, still-sitting MP (photo: Leon Vidic/Delo)

Thus Ambrožič joins an ever longer line of Slovenian MPs cutting one corner too many. Specifically he finds himself in the dubious company of Branko Marinić (SDS) and Ivan Simčič (DeSUS) who have had their own educational misconduct uncovered in the past couple of years. Marinić was found guilty of swapping identities when taking a German exam (someone else tried to take the test for him) while Simčič was discovered to have falsified his high-school graduation certificate (the statute of limitation expired by the time this was made public and no charges were pressed).

Admittedly, there seems to be a lot of trigger-happy copy-pasting going around these days. But unlike former German defense minsiter Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, former vice-president or European Parliament Silvana Koch-Mehrin or former Hungarian President Pal Schmitt, Ambrožič didn’t see it fit to resign his post.

In this he followed rather sorry examples of Marinič, Simčič and even Meršol but with one important caveat. This time around Ambrožič was urged to quit by his own party. Which is almost a first in Slovenia. In 2006, during Janša government 1.0, an SDS MP Pavel Rupar resigned his post after a highly publicised corruption scandal (which also included his ex-lover). But as of late, it is the politicians academic credentials that have become, well, game, for journos to take pot shots at. What sets Ambrožic case apart from every other case in Slovenian politics thus far is the fact that Ambrožič was asked by PS leader Zoran Janković to quit (well, probably told to quit, but not in so many words), but he refused.

You see, under the constitution an MP is not bound by whatever instructions the party or anyone else may have for him. In short, they are free to decice for themselves what to do politically and how to do it. This, of course, includes the execution of their mandate. It is logical for it to be so. MPs are representative of the people. Plural, in both cases. No matter how many or how few MPs there are, all of them together and every one of them individually act as representatives of the entire population. Sure, most of the votes are taken along the party or coalition lines, but whenever a push comes to shove, an MP can decide to defy party policy.

Which is something Ambrožič was keen to give the appearance of. But in reality, he did everything wrong. He denied any wrongdoing although the case against him appears solid (computer analysis shows the original B.A. thesis was copied by as much as 97%). When pressed, he claimed that it was all a media campaign against him directed by sinister forces. And when his arm was being twisted, he said that it was for the party to decide what to do. Which is of course pure bullshit. The party can not recall him. Nor can the voters (barring new elections, of course). What Ambrožič pretends not to understand is that the responsibility for his political actions rests solely with him. “Pretends” because he is fully aware of the fact that he can not be forced to quit, but shirks away from making a decision because that is what he thinks guarantees political survival.

And this is the point. MPs are not elected to not make decisions. Exactly the opposite. This doesn’t mean their decisions are sound or even logical, but they are there to make them. Of their own accord or via party directive. Again, it doesn’t really matter (not in this case, anyhow). Even Branko Marinič and Ivan Simčič understood that when they chose to weather it out and not resign. They did, however, both enjoy at least tacit support from their respective parties. Ambrožič, on the other hand, is making it his business to be everyone else’s business. The party doesn’t want him any more which means that he should at least have the decency to leave the PS parliamentary group, if he can’t muster the courage to quit for real (or prove his innocence and shove it down his former party’s throat). Bottom line, he wants decisions to be made for him, so he doesn’t have to.

And this is the basic test of any parliamentarian. You can’t make decisions? You’ve no business in the parliament. If not for copy-pasting his thesis, it is for inability to take decisions that Ambrožič should definitely get the fuck funk out of the parliament.

Enhanced by Zemanta

Remember, Remember, the Eleventh of November

Back to politics. President of the parliament Gregor Virant signed a decree yesterday scheduling presidential elections on 11 November. The fact that the first of expected two rounds of presidential elections will be held on St. Martin’s Sunday, when Slovenes, well, celebrate turning of must into wine – by drinking even more copious amounts of alcohol than usual – caused many a smirk around the country (“so, which of the two ballots do I fill out?”), but will in all honesty have only modest impact.


Gregor Virant doing the deed (photo by yours truly)

In fact, it is unclear at this stage exactly what will have an impact on the presidential campaign. If the trend of the ever more vicious campaigns is to continue, we’ll surely witness many below-the-belt punches, mudslinging and manipulations.

Officially, the campaign starts around 11 October and no candidate has yet formally filed his candidacy. Some weeks ago Zmago Jelinčič, leader of the nationalist party (now ousted from the parliament) withdrew his presidential bid, saying he refuses to be a part of the system which will be this country’s undoing. Again, this drew some cynical laughter, as Jelinčič himself was a member of the parliament for twenty-one nineteen years, from 1992 to 2011 and was very much an integral part of that very same system, knowing full well how to exploit it for his own personal and political gain.

But with Jelinčič out of the picture (although pengovsky would not be surprised if he were to re-enter the game at 11th hour), we are now left with five candidates: incumbent Danilo Türk, Milan Zver MEP, who runs on an SDS ticker and erstwhile PM Borut Pahor who runs on an SD ticket. Additionally, there are two no-name candidates, Marko Kožar and Monika Malešič. The latter made a couple of headlines earlier today claiming that she’s receiving death threats. This, we can more or less safely file under “attention whoring”, since both of them will probably poll between 0,1 and 0,4 percent. Cumulative.

As a side note, Gregor Virant and his Citizens’ List indulged in yet another case of political vanity. Some weeks ago Virant hinted that his party might consider supporting Pahor, which to an extent further alienated Pahor from the left side of political spectrum (where Social Democrats nominally reside). Then, days ago Virant said that they might produce their own candidate with the caveat that this person has not yet given his/her consent and, finally, yesterday he somewhat reluctantly said that they will not put forward their own candidate but will support one of the already running ones. Which basically leaves them with either Pahor or Zver. The thing is that Virant’s party is scoring somewhere between terrible and disastrous right now which is why the whole thing came off as a really bad bluff. Fact of the matter is that – politically speaking – the Citizens’ List has precious little weight left to throw around outside the parliamentary chamber. Practically none.

This leaves the three main contenders for the top political job in the country. According to the latest poll, President Türk is firmly in the lead with 45 percent of the vote, with Borut Pahor trailing at 30 percent and Milan Zver way back with 17 percent. Pahor made some gains recently, but that can mostly be put down to his increased media presence while both Türk and Zver are criss crossing the country, campaigning on the ground.

Ever since Borut Pahor entered the race it seems a given that a second round will be necessary to elect a president. Additionally, it seems safe to assume that President Türk will make it into the second round comfortably (provided there are no serious gaffes), which means the race for second place between Borut Pahor and Milan Zver will be much more interesting. Which makes for ample speculation room as to whom exactly the current PM Janez Janša actually supports.

While not exactly necessary, all three candidates will run with popular support, basically as independents with support of various political parties, collecting signatures and thus avoiding running on a strictly party ticket. Which makes one curious as to why the PM did not put down his signature in support of Milan Zver. True, Janša’s SDS (in cahoots with NSi) supports Zver on, well, corporate level, but given that a lot of high-profile SDS and NSi members put their individual names down supporting Zver makes Janša’s absence from the list all the more curious.

The eleventh of November is still quite a distance away, but it could very well be that it will be the one to remember.

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

#prevodikomadov – the playlist

A lovely thing happened yesterday in Slovene twitosphere. Yours truly started a little shtick where one posted a Slovenian translation of a verse of a song, whereupon everyone else were to guess the performer and song title. The first person to guess correctly was then entitled to continue the thread, while his/her correct answer was confirmed via a re-tweet by the verse’s originator.


#prevodikomadov trending on Sitweet.com

The whole thing was being run under the hasthag #prevodikomadov which roughly corresponds to “lyrics translation” and it started trending relatively quickly, securing the top position in Slovenian Twitter trends fairly soon. And while pengovsky came up with the idea and the hashtag, it should be noted that @loudanvicked helped craft the final rules of the game and that the whole thing would get out of control hadn’t he, @DavorinPavlica and many others helped curate the whole thing.

It all started with this innocent take on Shout by Tears for Fears

and ended some 360+ tweets (and counting) later. Granted, not all of these tweets included an actual verse. Some were merely guiding (curating) tweets, others were the same solutions by multiple users to the same verse, still others RTs of correct answers. But since I really can’t be bothered to sift through the entire CVS file, let’s just take things at face value and proclaim @DavorinPavlica as the most active user of #pravikomadi (myself excluded for obvious reasons).

Here’s Davorin’s take on Whole Lotta Love by Led Zeppelin

And while we’re at it, a special shoutout goes to the one and only Boštjan Gorenc – Pižama, the top-tier stand-up comic and most excellent translator of George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Fire and Ice saga. This is how @Pizama sees Under the Bridge by Red Hot Chili Peppers in Slovenian:

And since bizarre picks are bizarre, a hat tip to @jkmcnk for floating this special gem of Slovenian electro-pop: Fredi Miler – Vedno si sanjala njega

https://twitter.com/jkmcnk/status/227774556239179776

And here’s the complete #prevodikomadov playlist, as submitted by 0020 hrs this morning. Seventy-two songs, in order of appearance:

Tears for Fears – Shout
A-ha – Cry Wolf
Deep Purple – When A Blind Man Cries
Snoop Dog – Aint Nutt’n But G Thang
Lewis and the News – Power of Love
Blur – Girls and Boys
Jimmy Reed – Big Boss Man
Korn – Twisted Transistor
Pixies – Where is my mind
Bad Religion – Generator
Bob Dylan – Motorpsycho NIghtmare
Johnny Cash – A Boy Named Sue
Led Zeppelin – Whole Lotta Love
Dire Straits – Sultans of Swing
Bruce Springsteen – Lucky Town
Beatles – Day in life
Led Zeppelin – Dyer Maker
Chop Suey – SOAD
Red Hot Chili Peppers – Under the Bride
Rolling Stones – Sympathy for the devil
Pink Floyd – Money
Flogging Molly – What’s Left Of The Flag
Kylie Minogue – Can’t Get You Out Of My Head
Zaz – Je Veux
Bob Dylan – All Along The Wathctower
Liza Minelli – Cabaret
Taio Cruz ft Flo Rida – Hangover
Deep Purple – Hush
Fredi Miler – Vedno si sanjala njega
Rage Against the Machine- Killing in the Name
Bonnie Tyler – Total Eclypse Of The Heart
Jerry Reed – Tupelo Mississippi Flash
Sum 41 – We’re All To Blame
Pink Floyd – Comfortably Numb
The Doors – The End
Bruce Springsteen – Tougher Than The Rest
Amy Winehouse – You Know I’m No Good
Mick Jagger – Wired All Night
Buffallo Springfield – For What It’s Worth
Monty Python – Always Look on the Bright Side of Life
Prodigy – Smack my bitch up
Azra – Pametni i knjiski ljudi
Slayer – Can’t Stand You
Survivor – Eye of the Tiger
The Andrews Sisters – Bei mir bist du schön
Jet – Are You Gonna Be My Girl
Sting – Roxane
Arctic Monkeys – When The Sun Goes Down
George Michael – Praying for Time
Michael Jackson – Beat It
Rolling Stones – Let It Bleed
KUD Idijoti – Punk`s njet mrtav
U2 – Zooropa
Beatles – Ain’t She Sweet
Alice In Chains – Down In A Hole
Grand Funk Railroad – Heartbreaker
Zabranjeno Pušenje – Zenica blues
Pink Floyd – Time
Amon Amarth – Twilight Of The Thunder God
Procol Harum – A Whiter Shade of Pale
Radiohead – Green Plastic Trees
Joy Division – Love Will Tear Us Apart
Outasight – Figure 8
The Temptations – Papa Was A Rolling Stone
Lou Rawls – You’ll Never Find Another Love Like Mine
Maja Keuc – I’m a Tree and You’re a Baloon
Stereophonics – Maybe Tomorrow
Pink Floyd – Hey You
Status Quo – Whatever you Want
Bjelo Dugme – Hajdemo u planine
Rednex – Cotton Eye Joe
The Arcade Fire – Rebellion (Lies)
Sunrise Avenue – Hollywood Hills
Radiohead – Karma Police

I loved it! And if I missed or miscounted anything, feel free to correct me in the comments section 😀

Enhanced by Zemanta

Getting Fired For Actually Doing Something?

Finance daily ran a story yesterday about PM Janez Janša is set to kick interior minister Vinko Gorenak and justice minister Senko Pličanič out of the government come Autumn. While the government communication office denied the rumours (PM Janša remains mute on the issue) the story might actually have legs given its proximity to last week’s scare about the vote of confidence.


In foreground: Senko Pličanič, left and Vinko Gorenak, right (Photo by Matej Družnik/Delo.si)

At any rate, a government reshuffle is quite embarrassing this early in the term of the current administration, but is also far from problematic. In fact, it has become something of a tradition for a Janša administration. Early on during his 2004-2008 stint at the top job Janša had to find a replacement for Jože P. Damijan, who resigned his post as development minister after only three months in office, reportedly due to falling out with then-finance minister Andrej Bajuk over (non)selling of NLB. Slightly off-topic: in hindsight it appears Damijan had a point back then and lost no time rubbing it in the face of his former boss (Google translate here)

It should also be said that neither Pličanič nor Gorenak (offically) have any knowledge of PM’s alleged bad blood, with Gorenak writing up a rather heavy rebuttal (again, google translation) but, interestingly, avoiding the finer points of Finance story. In fact, a lot of it is actually a classic non-denial.

But the gist of the story is somewhere else entirely. A week or so ago PM Janša appeared on Vroči Stol (Hot Seat) programme hosted by Vladimir “Vudu” Vodušek. What was basically a farcical re-run of a similar event four years ago would probably be forgotten soonest , had Vudu (now owner of a financially embattled Info TV cable TV station) not been arrested the very next morning on charges of extortion and blackmail, unofficially of a CEO of a hardware company. It was all highly embarrassing for the prime minister, who – according to the Finance story – went apeshit over not being told that Vudu was a target of a criminal investigation. And this is where things get interesting.

The only thing is that the PM is probably the last person on earth who can be told of an ongoing criminal investigation. In a democratic state politics stays out of police work. It takes the widest berth possible. Which is why Janša’s (again: alleged but not denied) reaction is highly symptomatic of how this administration sees this country: as a top-to-bottom controlled organism with no horizontally or vertically independent sub-systems and with the head knowing everything and making all the important calls. There’s a word for that and it ain’t democracy.

Minister Gorenak maintains that he never spoke to Janša about the investigation. Which is fine, even though one can understand the sentence as if he himself did have prior knowledge of the investigation (which he shouldn’t have, as the police is under his portfolio but not direct control). Which would – bizarre as it sounds – mean that interior minister Vinko Gorenak did something right for a change and is looking down the wrong end of a gun-barrel for it. Go figure. Not that he would be sorely missed, but still…

And as for minister Pličanič, he too is apparently getting the short shrift for doing too much rather than too little. According to media reports the past six months have seen (some sort of) results solely in the areas of financial austerity and public administration, the former being the portfolio of finance minister Janez Šušteršič while the latter is the domain of minister Senko Pličanič (both, incidentally, of Gregor Virant‘s Citizens’ List)

What Pličanič apparently didn’t understand was that he was meant to do as little as possible save perhaps a token effort here and there. He really should have gotten the message when the State Prosecution was detached from his portfolio (justice) and joined with internal affairs (ran by Gorenak). But as things stand, he seems to be poised to play the sad role of collateral damage.

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Vote of Confidence: How PM Janša Just Screwed Entire Slovenian Politics Dry

Speculation was rife in Slovenia today that PM Janez Janša will tie a confidence vote to tomorrow’s vote on initiating procedures to enshrine the fiscal rule in the constitution. In less than twenty-four hours the country found itself in the middle of a political cliffhanger, since the government does not have the necessary two-thirds majority to change the constitution. It was obvious from the outset, however, that the whole thing was nothing more than an elaborate bluff, it’s primary goal not being mustering the votes necessary but rather a disciplinary measure, smoking out this government’s “internal opposition” and bringing them back in line for much more crucial votes which this government faces down the road.


(source)

Namely, the government of Janez Janša enjoys a stable majority in the parliament. The coalition has 52 votes (53 if you count the overly-indulging former PM Borut Pahor) and can pass legislation virtually at will. In fact, this is exactly what it is doing, as the parliament only this week passed 20-or-so laws, most of them under emergency procedure. Not that there was any real emergency, but the government asked for multiple quickies and the MPs who support it complied no-questions-asked. Such is the discipline within the coalition and there really is no need for Janša to test whether or not he has the support of the parliament.

That Janša was entertaining the thought regardless shows only that he is willing to (ab)use legal instruments to further his own grip on power. Tying the vote of confidence to a 2/3 majority would create a legal and political clusterfuck of epic proportions because it would mean the fall of a majority government without a viable alternative coalition to replace it. Which would probably suit Janša just fine as he thrives in an uncertain environment and would most likely end up on top again, even stronger. Truth be told, he most likely already got what he wanted and thus screwed the entire Slovenian politics dry.

Namely, earlier this evening an 11th hour compromise was reached, putting the vote on fiscal rule off until September, which places the debate conveniently close to presidential elections. And let us not forget this is not the first time he pulled a stunt like that. Back then he did it a week after Danilo Türk was elected president, this time around he tricked others (namely, president of the parliament Gregor Virant) into placing a debate a few weeks before the elections, possibly hijacking the debate entirely.

As an added bonus, he also forced the hands of Karl Erjavec (DeSUS) who was immediately ready to jump ship saying that he’s willing to be a part of any coalition and of Radovan Žerjav (SLS), who openly toyed with the idea of yet another early elections, excluding up front the possibility of someone else heading the government under the same coalition. Both Žerjav and Erjavec will pay dearly for their political amateurism. Additionally, Igor Lukšič of Social democrats made a bit of a blunder, saying that “if the going really gets tough”, the SD will support the fiscal rule. Well, the going got tough long ago and Janša now has Lukšič by the you-know-whats as well and the newly minted SD leader will have to spend a lot of energy to get out of this particular fix.

Right now, fiscal rule is the least of Slovenia’s problems. While not peachy, national finances are a far cry from that of Greece, Spain or Portugal (public debt in Slovenia right now is about 47% of GDP). This country has other problems: banking sector is cause for immediate concern with pension, labour market and health reforms coming in close second, as detailed here by Edward Hugh of Economonitor

That after six months in office Janša tackled none of the above (even the banks are on hold until Autumn) only further strengthens the point that the whole point of today’s exercise was purely political with the ultimate goal of not relinquishing power, but tightening the already firm grip on it. After all, why would someone who six months ago went to great pains to clinch the PM spot, suddenly just give it up. Especially since he has this huge millstone hanging around his neck…

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Phone Hacking Slovenian Way

If you by any chance thought Slovenia is some sort of rump quasi-democracy with a crackpot neolib government, then you have the wrong idea, mister! In fact, this sorry little excuse for a country has everything big guys have, although you’re allowed to go pas assez cher, mon fils.

In fact, in certain aspects we’re very much like the United Kingdom. Not only did we have an allowances scandal, we have a finance minister who is forced to do an epic U-turn on matters of state finances and as of recent, just like United Kingdom we also have out very own phone-hacking scandal.


The incriminating text message. Interestingly enough, the background is red (gasp!) (source)

Interestingly enough, about a month ago, an article appeared on Slo-Tech.si community (fairly good Google translate), detailing vulnerabilities of several Slovene mobile operators and provided proof of concept about hacking the entire GSM grid individual phone numbers and the possibility to fake text messages and phone calls.

Days ago several members of Christian democratic NSi, a junior coaliticon party, received abusive text (SMS) messages calling them traitors and saying they’ll burn in hell for their position vis-a-vis the red star symbol. As both readers of this blog know, it has been the semi-official position of this government that the red star is a symbol of the tyranical communist regime and occupator Yugoslav army which fought to quash the fledling Slovenian state in the 1991 War of Independence. As such, the goverment went, the red star should be outlawed or at the very least excluded from the collective memory and remembance, especially from any and all official celebrations of Slovenian statehood.

Nevermind the fact that the Partisan guerilla fighters liberated Slovenia in 1945 under the red star banner, making the one of the few home-grown armed forces to defeat the Nazi and Fascist armies, hell-bent on erradicating Slovenes from the face of the Earth. Nevermind the fact that under the red star banner Slovenia was able to claim Primorska region as its sovereign territory, previously held by Italy as booty for switching allegiances in World War I. Nevermind the fact that under the red star banner, Partisan units were considered a part of Allied forces in World War Two, helping hundreds of US, British and other airmen, downed on their sorties during bombing campaigns over Nazi Germany.

Never even mind the fact that today Heineken brewery is using a red star as a part of its logo or that Crvena Zvezda (Red Star) football and basketball clubs from Belgrade are doing the same, as are countless other companies around the world, including (but not limited to) Texaco, Macy’s and even the State of California.

And last, but ceratinly not least, the only military compound in the capital Ljubljana was recently renamed from Franc Rozman Stane (commander of Partisan forces, killed in an firing-range accident in 1944) to Edvard Peperko who was the first military casualty of the Battle of Trzin (outside Ljubljana), one of the largest fire-fights between the JNA (federal army) and Slovene paramilitary Territorial Defence in 1991. The fact that defence minister Aleš Hojs, who decreed the renaming is a member of NSi, which troubled itself to defeat the (admittedly ill-concieved) designation of a new Ljubljana avenue after the late Josip Broz Tito only adds gravity to the issue. Which is why plenty of hoopla was raised when days ago prominent members of NSi received those abusive text messages. But the twist is that Jernej Vrtovec, Matjaž Longar and Andrej Cimperšek got these texts either from each other’s phone numbers or (in case of Vrtovec) from their own alternative number.

Obviously all hell broke loose, Vrtovec, Longar and Cimperšek denied the possibility of simply sending texts to one another and a police investigation was launched while Telekom Slovenje conducted an investigation into phone hacking allegations. Well, guess what: turns out their phones were not hacked but rather various web-services were used to emulate any given phone number. That such a feat is possible in the first place speaks volumes of the security measures within this specific cellular network in the first place (edit: apparently, this is something local mobile operators can not block. Thx @gbozic). But even more importantly this sheds new light on a similar incident months before last year’s elections.

Back then Melita Župevc MP (previously, of SD now of PS) SAID a call was made to her mobile phone using her own phone number. Given the fact that Župevc was at the time head of the parlimanetary inquiry on financing pro-SDS free “newspapers” prior to 2008 elections, she cried murder, claiming that she was being threatened and pressured. Almost immediately she became the laughing stock of the political right wing, with some even insinuating she’s delirious and hallucinating. And when their phones get allegedly hacked, they raise living hell as if it never happened before.

This government, despite facing a daunting task of handling the financial, economic and social crisis brought about by the 2008 crash, is making it its business to rewrite history and chase ghosts. Not only by banishing the red star wherever it sees one, but also by renaming army instalations which held the names of prominent Partisan leaders and screaming bloody murder when someone (perhaps even one of their own) does unto them what they laughed at when it was done unto others.

In fact, if you think Slovenia is a rump quasi-democracy with a crackpot neolib government, chances are, you’e not that far off.

Enhanced by Zemanta

Janez Šušteršič, Meet Reality

Reality seems to have caught up quite fast with finance minister Janez Šušteršič. The man who headed the government macroeconomic office (the aptly named IMAD) during the first Janša administration and refused to pick up the pieces after Jože P. Damijan, the would-be wonder boy of Janša 1.0 jumped ship after only 91 days in office, was forced to fork out EUR 381 million to recapitalise Slovenia‘s largest bank, the state-owned NLB.


Janez Šušteršič and NLB (source & source)

Well, to be honest, the state directly recapitalised the bank with EUR 320 million, while the remainder was coughed up by para-state funds KAD and SOD which is almost the same as if the state gave the money, only it looks better on the balace sheet. KAD and SOD entered the clusterfuck that is the NLB at the eleventh hour, after Belgian KBC bank refused to partake in the operation (after initially agreeing to the deal) and has thus seen its share in NLB shrink from 25 to 22 percent. The funny thing is that only months Šušteršič claimed that not a single euro from the budget will be used to recapitalise NLB. Which means the realisation that no-one will touch NLB with a ten-foot-pole must have come as a rude shock to our austerity-oriented finance minister.

In fact, given the ferocity with which Šušteršič and the rest of the sell-them-all-market-will-know-its-own gang were championing the “market approach” means that what we have witnessed vis-a-vis the NLB was nothing less than an about-face of epic proportions. In other countries, ministers get heavy flak for much less.

OK, fact of the matter is that NLB at this time is about as attractive as three-day-old road-kill and Šušteršič was basically looking down the barrel of a gun, faced with either pumping cash into NLB or hanging it dry. And we’ve seen what letting a bank go bust does, right? But there’s more: Not only did NLB need 380+ million of Tier 1 capital, it also has about three billion of bad loans on its books. And while Šušteršič maintains that most of these loans can and will be repaid, that is more or less eyewash. The bank will never see this money returned, because there is no way for companies who took out these loans (by far and large during the first Janša tenure, when the government encouraged expansionary economic policies) to return them. They don’t have anything to return them with. No competitiveness, no markets, no income, no way to pay the labour force, not even state contracts to offset the above and – finally – no earnings to finance their erstwhile debts.

So, yes, NLB will probably have to suck up losses of about three billion euro. Or about 8,5 percent of entire Slovenian GDP. That’s a lot. And that’s just the biggest bank. Other banks have bad loans on their books as well. Thus the finance minsiter and his boss, the prime minister can assure the country and the world, until they’re blue in the face, that Slovenia will not ask for a bailout of its banks. But the reality is that there will be a call made to Brussels sooner rather than later.

And if the U-turn on NLB recapitalisation wasn’t reason enough, the moment this country asks for a bailout will also be the moment when finance minister Janez Šušteršič will have to ask himself whether he’s fit to continue in this government. In other words: a request for a bailout should be accompanied by a letter of resignation.

The reason for this is painfully simple. Šušteršič positions on the issue, indeed his entire economic platform was about removing the state as a majority owner in key companies. This plan fell apart on the first rock it hit. Yes, NLB needed to be recapitalised and yes, the state is not necessarily a bad owner (although NLB was mismanaged time and again by politically appointed management). Having a the biggest bank in the system limp forward is preferable to letting it sink. But Šušteršič’s political positions which won him the mandate as an elected official, are in direct and blatant opposition with his actions. The two can hardly be reconciled which means that Sloveinan finance minister has a huge credibility problem. And a finance minister with a credibility problem is not something to be looked kindly upon. Just ask Franci Križanič.

But Šuštešič’s biggest problem is not his (lack of) credibility, but the fact that he is, unbeknownst to him, probably earmarked as the fall guy if things go badly wrong. This, at least, would appear to be case since Positive Slovenia announced it will start interpelation proceedings against the finance minister. Technically, an interpelation does not have to end with a vote on minister’s dismissal (although it often does). Instead, it is an instrument of ministerial accountability per se, forcing the minister to explain and defend his or her action.

Now, PM Janez Janša already called starting interpelation this early in the term “nonsense” and at least technically backed Šušteršič up (again, a lovely case of double standards as his party filed an interpelation against Katarina Kresal less then three months after she took office in 2009). But since DL and SDS found themselves on opposite sides on quite a number of issues in the past few days (mostly stemming from the “red star issue”) Šušteršič can be sure that he’ll be made to pick up at least part of the tab.

It seems that the finance minister started this term knowing what his priorities are and falsely assumed that these are other people’s priorities as well (we’ll neglect that these priorities are dubious at best). When challenged about past economic policies of coalition parties in a recent interview with Mladina weekly, Šušteršič answered that he doesn’t care about who did what in the past but is rather interested in what this government will do. And this is the gist of it.

Šušteršič naively assumes that somehow it’ll be different this time around. He really should know better than that. The prime minister is the same. Most of the coalition parties are the same. Most of the key players are the same. Even the problems are the same. How then could results be any different? Remember: I’m not saying that either state or private ownership are inherently bad or good. But the speed at which stated goals of this government and its financial minister have disappeared into thin air is somewhat breathtaking.

 

Enhanced by Zemanta