Slovenia | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

At Some Point, Hanging In There Makes You Look An Even Bigger Loser

Pengovsky showed some time ago that chances of early elections being called in Slovenia are about two to the power of 2079460347 against. Nearly everyone is competing in who will issue a more urgent call for early elections, but when a push comes to a shove, everybody’s got some other business to attend to. Like running the country. Keeping the parliamentary seat. Pointing fingers. Or even crowd-sourcing. Anything but calling the damn elections.

(source, of course)

Exibit A

Prime Minister Borut Pahor was on the telly ~~yesterday~~ Tuesday evening, where he said, for example, that he came to the conclusion that his resignation would only push the country deeper into political crisis rather than bring about early elections, so he chose to continue as PM. He also said that a new round of discussion on pension reforms is to take place, despite the fact that he and his government received an epic beating in a referendum on pension reform a month ago.

He is also about to take over as acting minister for Public Administration instead of Irma Pavlinič Krebs who resigned her post and will be formally relieved next week and he is already facing unrest in the public sector unions. As if that wasn’t enough, the PM recently trekked half-way around the world to India to find a buyer for the limping national airline Adria Airways, is dealing with the Greek financial crisis and has recently confabulated with opposition leader Janez Janša on how the political future of this country. A tall order by any standard, but when compared to the PM’s low ratings and mounting credibility issues, it become obvious that the PM’s ego issuing checks his body can’t possibly cash.

Anything to stave off the elections, apparently.

Exibit B

Of all the voices calling for early elections, those in Janez Janša‘s SDS are among the most vocal. Indeed, there are also at least two sort-of-grass-roots campaigns probably aimed at expanding the breath and appeal of the largest opposition party. One group, calling themselves Active Citizens Group headed by sociologist Matej Makarovič (who among other things was the first president of SDS youth organisation) is positioning itself as a think-tank for the political right and is citing the do’s and the dont’s for SDS and sister parties in order to win elections. Another group, headed by SDS Ljubljana city councilman Žiga Turk is (was?) collecting online signatures to call early elections. To date they collected some 19,000 signatures which – although not a smallish number – is way below anything that could make members of this group gurgle with excitement.

Altough both groups try to present themselves as grass-roots movements, they are anything but. Both of them boast former ministers as leading members, some of whom are speculated to return to the cabinet if and when Janez Janša wins elections. But apart from a slight transparency issue this is not really important.

What is more than obvious is the fact that – just as the ruling coalition – the opposition has a general credibility problem which it is trying to rectify by generating “civil society” clamour for a change at the helm of the country. Namely – if all were well and good in this world, the opposition would win the next elections without breaking a sweat, especially with as unpopular a government as we have now. However, the polls show that Janez Janša’s overall strategic objective of winning 50+ percent of seats in the parliament will remain wishful thing. Which is why he needs a credibility boost. Ad-hoc civil society support groups are one way of doing it.

A more effective way of gaining some credibility is by presenting a viable election platform. Which is exactly what the SDS did yesterday. Or did they? Well, not really. What they presented, was actually a draft platform, a patchwork of ideas some of which sound more plausible than others. Just a teaser: on one hand, the SDS would (predictably) lower taxes dramatically while increasing infrastructure investments on the other but it would also put a ceiling in public debt to 45% of GDP (currently, Slovenia’s public debt is at 38% percent of GDP).

That this platform is a work in progress is also shown by the fact that SDS is crowdsourcing ideas on a dedicated website. This is not the first time they resorted to this trick. In fact, even while still in power, Janša’s government launched a site that sought people’s views on the future of Slovenia. Little came out of it. Ditto for a similar site launched by the incumbent government. And, just to further make the point, Ljubljana branch of SDS made the same move, releasing draft platform six months before elections and crowdsourced input with limited success.

Six months ago Janez Janša announced the need for the Second Republic. Just as the notion was starting to fade, he announced a draft election platform. Neither is anything to write home about, so it is safe to assume that both were primarily aimed at creating buzz rather than substance, although yesterday’s document offers several concrete although self-conflicting measures.

Point being that SDS made precious little progress in terms of preparing for elections. Given that their motion to change the constitution which the parliament is debating right now actually decreases rather than increases chances of early elections, the conclusion is that Janez Janša is in fact in no hurry to get to election day.

Exibit C

Two MPs for Zares quit their party group yesterday and switched to independents. Vili Trofenik and Alojz Posedel were the odd men out almost from the very start, not in the least because they often departed from the party line, most notably on the question of mayor/MP conflict. This brings Zares’ MPs down to seven, making them a slightly less of a force to be reckoned with, although they are still the third most powerful party in the parliament.

Bleeding votes is never a good thing, regardless of how Gregor Golobič tries to play down the move by both MPs. But in all honesty, the switch was at least suspected if not outright expected, not just because Golobič is back in the parliament, making a nuisance of himself to everyone who had it fairly easy, both within Zares as well as in other parties (case in point being Golobič’s entry into the Twitter-sphere, where he immediately made waves).

It mostly has to do with the expected lifespan of this parliament. Posedel and Trofenik have no interest to see it come to a premature end as their chances of getting re-elected are (save a political miracle) practically zero. So parting of ways was imminent.

Verdict

We are nowhere near elections. Even if the PM ties a confidence vote to the budget rebalancing act in September and loses, elections are possible in beginning of December at the earliest. And it seems that the more necessary the confidence vote is, the less probable it is becoming. Until yesterday, the minority government of Borut Pahor had merely thirty-three votes in the parliament (SD and LDS). It could more or less count on two out of three votes of the independent MPs. Now, that count is up to four. This means the count now goes up to thirty-seven, making it nine short of an absolute majority. Adding two votes of minority MPs, this can be further extended to 39 and with that PM Pahor suddenly has enough wiggle room to make it all the way home, since both opposition SLS and SNS (five votes each) have declared their opposition to early elections. In addition DeSUS of Karl Erjavec also has zero interest in early elections, which means the primer minister is in the position to shop for votes on any given vote.

The only problem is that this is no time to play political games and spend energy on political survival. In this situation, hanging in there makes you an even bigger loser.

Family Code: There Must Be Over Fifty Thousand Screaming Love And More For You…

It was Simon Zelotes or Simon the Zealot who in the seminal rock opera Jesus Christ Superstar urged Jesus to attack Roman occupiers for he was followed by the fifty thousand who screamed love and more for him. All that was needed was for Jesus to add a touch of hatred for Rome and Galilee would be free once again. It was, in short, an attempt to use religion and its followers to political ends. Fast forward two thousand years and you’ll find similar zealots in Slovenia. It’s just that they’re not fighting Romans but gays. And lesbians. And bisexuals. And anyone else who doesn’t subscribe to the notions of “natural laws”, “normality” and “tradition”, freeing Slovenia not of Latin occupiers but of evil and unnatural ideas, making it a God-given heterosexual haven.

Aleš Primc’s “defenders of all things natural” (source)

As both readers of this blog know, it all has to with the new Family code which the parliament passed last week after what was most likely one of the more brutal legislative procedures in the history of this country. Not necessarily the most brutal, but definitely close. In fact, it was one of those cases where the entire breadth of the ideological and cultural divide in this country became visible. This was not a power struggle nor was it a fight over a slice of the ever thinning financial pie, not even a run on well-paid government jobs. It was, pure and simple, about what kind of a society Slovenes (will) live in. Was? Is, rather. Because even though the Family code was confirmed by the parliament, the ordeal is by no means over. The law, which was significantly watered down on most crucial points in a vane attempt to placate the right wing, miraculously escaped a veto in the National Council but is now subject to yet another referendum bid.

A grass-roots campaign headed by former SLS member Aleš Primc and heavily backed by the Catholic Church was and still is very vocal in their opposition to the new code. As the debate progressed it became more and more obvious that (just as the more observant suspected all along) positions of the political right-wing and Primc’s campaign itself were extremely harmonious and synchronised. In fact, Primc and his lot were only saying what the right wing was thinking. And in the end, they ended up saying it as well.

I’ve no problem with gays in fact I have many gay friends

The level of hypocrisy, double morals and false arguments reached almost unprecedented levels during this debate. No matter how often the myth of “a normal family” was debunked, the opponents of the code kept getting back to that (case in point being France Cukjati MD, of Janez Janša‘s SDS), claiming that by extending the definition of a family beyond its current scope, the traditional family (mother, father, offspring) would somehow lose on importance. That the very fabric of this society will be irreparably torn and that the nation as such will die off sooner rather than later. But woe be unto them who would dare to think that there was anything remotely homophobic in their opposition to the Code because… wait for it… they have a number of gay friends!

This, obviously is the most perfidious of arguments. Justifying one’s homophobia by claiming to have gay friends while bashing them and their rights is derogatory to the extreme. The more the political right tried to prove that their argument was not about denying gays and lesbians equal rights, the more they were proving exactly that. But to be fair, there was a lot of this going around on the political left as well, only in a more subdued manner.

This was quite probably the main reason the code was watered down significantly. Specifically, provision which originally allowed same-sex marriages was reduced to allowing civil unions with full rights while the provision allowing child adoptions by same-sex couples was tightened to allowing adoptions only if one of the partners is a biological parent of the child. Both provisions are a marked improvement over the existing situation but still stop short of completely equalling same-sex and heterosexual couples.

Clash of cultures

Officially, this watering-down was meant to placate Primc, his gang and the political right. But since the only way to placate them was to kill the code entirely, the move was more likely meant to make the code more acceptable to the “traditionalists” on the political left. The fact that the Code was passed by a relative rather than an absolute majority only further strengthens this particular line of thought.

Be that as it may, the new Family Code was passed and – miraculously so – the National Council did not veto it, which means that it should be enacted soon. Well, not really. There’s still the possibility of a referendum. And sure enough Primc and Co. collected 32,000 signatures (only 2500 were needed) to initiate referendum proceedings. In this enterprise they were assisted by the Roman Catholic Church which apparently was more than happy to let them collect signatures in or near churches. But since the Church takes it upon itself to decide questions of morality and properness (never mind the paedophile scandals and the 700 million debt accumulated by a single diocese in Slovenia) this was to be expected. Rather than going apeshit about it, one can only conclude time and again that when push comes to a shove the political and ideological right will resort to any and all weapons in this particular clash of cultures.

What. Happens. Next.

Anyways. President of the parliament Pavle Gantar (who, apparently, will step down sooner rather than later) is now obliged to initiate the procedure in which the proponents of the referendum must collect 40,000 confirmed signatures in a month’s time to call a referendum on the Family Code. Although they collected 32k signatures in a matter of days, the task is slightly more difficult as those 40k signatures must be given on a special form and confirmed by an official at an Administrative Unit (upravna enota) which – if nothing else – means a trek downtown, standing in line and doing the paperwork rather than just signing on the dotted line and being tapped on the back by the local priest. Gantar already said that the procedure will be initiated on 1 September since initiating it now would mean it would end during summer recess.

However, it is probably a safe bet that Primc and Co. will collect enough signatures to have a referendum called. Under this scenario, the government will then petition the Constitutional Court to deny the referendum on the basis that it would mean a popular vote over basic human rights and/or could mean imposing the will of the majority on a clearly defined minority of the population and thus discrimination based on sexual orientation which is explicitly forbidden by the constitution.

Elementary, my dear Watson…

The case seems open-and-shut. There can be no popular vote on human rights. They apply to everyone and are exerted directly, based on the constitution rather than via specific legislation. Elementary? Not really. Sadly, this may not be the case. Technically the Constitutional Court will be asked to deny petitioners their right to a referendum against the right of same-sex couples to have their family-related rights equalled with heterosexual couples. And all of a sudden the case becomes highly complicated.

Luckily, gays, lesbians and everyone else who would benefit from the new Family Code have one thing going for them: a ruling by the Constitutional Court which declared part of the existing law on registration of same-sex couples passed under Janša government unconstitutional and basically said that heterosexual and same-sex civil unions should enjoy equal rights. But before one gets one’s hope too high it should be noted that this case referred only to the right to inheritance. Recently, the Constitutional Court showed cojones and acted pro-actively, effectively making policy, but the question at hand is, whether it will choose to do so again or will feel the need to back up and show restraint.

The final verdict, therefore, is far from conclusive. And Slovenia will thus continue to see bigots waving placards saying how grateful they are to have had a mother and a father at the same time denying some children to have either, saying how marriage is a sacred institution, denying those who want to honour it.

In the aforementioned rock opera, Jesus replied to Simon the Zealot that he doesn’t get it and that is not what Christianity is about. Well, someone should tell Primc and his gang, the political right and everyone who swears to defend the “traditional family” and the “natural order of things that taking the Lord’s name in vain and forgetting the “love thy neighbour” part is making then anything but good Christians.

Constitutional Court Shows Cojones

As Slovenia watches in awe the incredible amount of stupid that is being produced live during the third and final reading of the Family Code and with the more open minded part of the population hoping for a ground-breaking vote finally recognising that everyone deserves a family, pengovsky brings to your attention yet another ground-breaking vote which was taken on Thursday last and made public on Monday. In what was probably the gutsiest in-your-face move in recent years, the Constitutional Court defeated the informal across-the-aisle agreement that was struck in the parliament and established a new municipality of Ankaran.

Ankaran (photo by Darinka Mladenović)

A little bit of background, if you will: Ankaran is a town that was until Monday a part of the Municipality of Koper where the industrious (and I mean that in the broadest sense of the word) Boris Popović is the mayor. For some time now townsfolk of Ankaran felt neglected by Koper administration. Whether or not that indeed was the case is more or less irrelevant, fact of the matter is that they felt that way. Moreover, there was a long-running dispute over how monies paid by the Port of Koper for degradation of environment were distributed between Koper proper and Ankaran. It all ammounted to a definitive “yes” vote when a referendum on Ankaran becoming an independent municipality was held. At the same time in another part of the country, a referendum was held on whether the town of Mirna (until then part of Municipality of Trebnje) should also become a municipality unto itself. This was to prove to be crucial to the fate of Ankaran.

Now, there are several conditions an area must meet in order to be eligible for municipality status in Slovenia. These are not very strict conditions which is probably the reason this country now boasts as much as 212 municipalities with as many mayors and municipal administrations, thousands of council members and so on. One of the conditions is, of course, the will of the people. Both Mirna and Ankaran fulfilled all the necessary conditions and the parliamentary act of establishing both municipalities was thought to be a mere formality. Wrong. While a vote on establishing the municipality of Mirna was a no brainer, MPs flat out rejected establishment of Ankaran. And did it several times. It became apparent that enough people both on local and state level were interested in Ankaran remaining within municipality of Koper, that they denied the people of Ankaran what was due according to the law.

Enter the Constitutional Court. In fact, the court was engaged even before, because it suspended 2010 local elections in Trebnje and Koper pending results of local referendums. But when Ankaran was denied, the Court was petitioned and ruled that Ankaran should have been granted municipality status. It also instructed the parliament to make this happen toute-de-suite. This, however, did not happen. Or rather, it almost did. The parliament passed the law which was then vetoed by the National Council (the ill-conceived second-chamber-wannabe) and then all of a sudden the parliament did not approve the law in the second vote. If things were fishy in the first place (the first attempt to create Ankaran municipality was defeated in the committee stage of the process), by now they outright stunk, especially since MPs opposing Ankaran came from both sides of the aisle. And when those same MPs proposed a special law allowing local elections in Koper municipality with Ankaran still included, it was plainly obvious that there was a tacit agreement (pengovsky won’t use the word conspiracy but feel free to think it) to keep Koper intact.

Petitioners from Ankaran again filed a complaint with the Constitutional Court which then took an almost unprecedented step of allowing the elections in Koper to go ahead, but in an area excluding the town of Ankaran, thus en passant creating the municipality. Mayor Popović and MPs which kept Ankaran a part of Koper went apeshit. In particular, Luka Juri of ruling Social Democrats (who, incidentally, is also a Koper city councilman) almost had a fit and started babbling about how the court abused its powers and how a constitutional amendment should be passed to circumvent the court’s decision.

Truth be told, the court did push an envelope a little. It’s decisions are usually limited to recognising possible unconstitutional provisions and/or to instruct the parliament on how the legislation should look like. Rarely did the court take it upon itself to pro-actively decree a new reality on the ground. But in this case the court was faced with a situation where a) it’s own instructions to the parliament on the issue at hand were blatantly ignored (separation of powers); b) the parliament ignored that Ankaran fulfilled any and all legal criteria for becoming a municipality (legality of decisions) and c) the parliament, when faced with exactly the same situation vis-a-vis Mirna municipality, voted to establish the latter without as much as blinking an eye (equality before the law). Bottom line, the Constitutional Court found that the Parliament acted unconstitutionally regarding the court’s own decisions and did the only thing possible to amend this: it acted pro-actively and created the municipality of Ankaran, with first local elections to be held there in 2014. Much to the delight of some and anger of others.

The question now is whether the court will have the same kind of cojones when it will be asked by the government to deny the referendum on the new Family Code, which will most certainly be called if the code survives the vote later today.

The Kid Who Should Be Tarred And Feathered

I know there are more important subjects to cover, critical to the future of the country finances i.e.: pension reform and the general referendum hoopla including the epic fails (or are they?) of the government ‘yes’ campaign. However, the thing that got me shouting at the TV set yesterday was not the stupidity of putting a silicon-wrecked blonde in front of the camera saying ‘no’ to the reform and hoping for a ‘yes’ result via reverse psychology.

Aleksander Spremo blocking reporter of TV Slovenia from entering offices of Piran Student Club (source)

No, what sent pengovsky on an expletives-laden rant that would make German porn-stars cringe with discomfort was one Aleksander Spremo who, apparently, ~~yesterday~~ last weekend tried to take over the Piran Student Club in the finest manner of muscle democracy where the toughest guy gets the most votes and if you’re not cool with that there’s a big-boned gentleman in the back who sucks at chiropractics to give you a twice-over.

According to a report by TV Slovenia (Slovene only) Spremo and a group of colleagues showed up at a meeting of the Piran Student Club and declared himself president of the club. A stand-off took place which included a police intervention, changing of locks by the municipal authorities (who apparently own offices leased by the club) and even preventing access to journalists by Spremo himself.

Now, all of the above would not merit a blogpost had it not been for one tiny detail. Aleksander Spremo, now a freshman at the Faculty of Law (!) was until recently president of High School Student’ Organisation of Slovenia and was actively involved in student protests against (now dead) law on menial work a year ago which disintegrated into pointless violence and vandalizing the parliament.

The journalist in me knows that there are always two sides to a story. But Spremo’s excuse for frivolous interpretation of democratic standards, namely that the sitting president Rebeka Mahnič “failed to complete a satisfactory number of projects” is flimsy at best and hints at a thinly veiled agenda. What that might be, is almost a no-brainer: student organisations are possibly the last source of money where accountability is a mere after-thought.

I’m not saying that everything was a-OK with Piran Student Club to date (I’ve no information on the club, much less any interest in it’s working), but the very fact that Spremo is involved is disturbing. Namely, this kid, who apparently became the stereotypical arrogant freshman law student should be, instead of trying to muscle his way into a money-pot, hiding under the biggest rock in the darkest hole possible, hoping that no-one will ever remember him, much less find him.

If all things were good and fair in this world, Aleksander Spremo should be tarred and feathered on the spot. But instead he studies law, paid for by the very same state he helped stone a year ago. And he gets to shove journalists around. That he is probably just running bag for someone else is also almost a given. I’m not saying that he hasn’t the mental capacity to cook something like this by himself, but given the fact that things escalated to the point of grown-ups intervening indicates that bigger issues are at play.

Call it a hunch, but I bet this is somehow connected with rumours of emergence of yet another political party in Slovenia. But that will have to wait. Right now I’d just like to express my utter dismay at the fact that 20-something no-goodniks like Spremo, who haven’t an ounce of responsibility and shame, still have the balls to have a go at public matters. Instead, they should be treated to a healthy dose of bitch-slapping.

There, venting session over… 😀

Family Code: Let’s Party Like It’s 1975

On Tuesday evening the parliament completed the second (crucial) reading of the new Family Code which – among other things – was meant to allow same-sex weddings and child adoptions. Pengovsky covered the issue at some lenght including the compromise solution proposed by the govenrment which watered down some of the more controversial points of the new legislation.

The bizzare vote (screenshot by @kricac, source)

As both readers of this blog know, the new code was far from unequivocally supported. Indeed, the split did not occur along the left-right fault but rather along the division between traditionalists and progressives, where the former seem to be enjoying an advantage in numbers or at the very least in audiability. To put it blunty, the political right opposes the new legislation vigorously and with gusto, while the left is divided between progressives who try to argue their case and traditionalists who support the law with noticeable lacklustre and would be just happy if the whole thing never happened.

It was partly because of this that the government sort of backed down on same-sex marriage and adoptions. Under the compromise solution gay and lesbian couples would not be able to enter wedlock but a partnership with the same legal consequences as marriage (including inheritance, which is a noticeable difference from the current law passed by previous government of Janez Janša). Furthermore, same-sex couples would only be allowed to adopt a child if one of the partners would be the child’s biological parent.

Compromise? Think again…

Hadn’t it been for the lukewarmness on the left, compromise would be utterly unnecessary as the right-wing opposition is fighting tooth and nail to defeat the code utterly and completely. Their cause is defended by a supposed grass-roots campaign headed by former SLS member Aleš Primc, who years ago led the campaign to ban medical fertilization of single women and succeeded (a refefrendum was called and the ‘no’ campaign won). Primc, following the shiny example of the NRA is using every possible means to draw attention and present himself as the ultimate defender of life, ‘natural laws’ and all things Slovene, to the extent of recently demanding that evolution and creationism be taught in schools side by side as ‘competing theories on the origin of maniknd’.

So, what we are dealing with here is in fact not a policy disagreement, but an ideological question of – broadly speaking – permissive libertarianism versus staunch religious reactionarism. The two are obviously mutually exclusive, so it is no wonder that Primc rejected the compromise solution as a trick, allowing for same sex marriage and adoption some time later on. And, to an extent, he’s probably correct. The thing is that he and the political parties behind him (SLS, SDS and NSi) will be satisfied with nothing else than a complete withdrawal of the new Family Code and then some, if possible.

Welcome to the twilight zone

The ‘then some’ moment occured, of course. Not just with the aforementioned attempt to introduce creationism to schools. That was, pengovsky suspects, just a target of opportunity. What happened on Tuesday evening when the parliament was voting on ammendments to the Code was much more bizzare.

In what was probably a momentary loss of attentiveness by the coalition, the parliament adopted an amendment by Janez Janša’s SDS stipulating that all unmarried couples, save those who already have a child, should register their union with the proper authorities if they want to claim benefits stemming from such a union.

For the uninitiated: Ever since 1976 civil union was instituted (the linked Wikipedia article is wrong, btw) married and unmarried heterosexual couples in Slovenia enjoy the same benefits, mostly in terms of inheritance, social security, child care and so on. It does not matter if the couple is married or has formalised the union in some other way, if at all. The amendment overturns more than thirty-five years of established practice which was since followed by many a country all across Europe and is recognised by a plethora of other Slovene legislation.

Now, some people know of or have experienced situations where a compulsory registration of a civil union would solve or even prevent many problems such as impostors claiming to have been long-time partners of a deceased family member or similar. However, what it at stake here is the inherent right of an individual to live the way he or she chooses without being disenfranchised vis-a-vis the state. Or – if you want to look at it the other way – the state has no business prescribing the preferred form of a union between two individuals.

The amendment is a very telling representation of just how deeply ideological this debate is. On one hand we have a drive to expand the definition of a family and with it the circle of those who would benefit from that, regardless of the way, shape or form of the union, regardless of whether the union produced an offspring (biologically or otherwise) and – most importantly – regardless of the sex of people entering such union.

On the other hand we have a drive to curb the existing scope of the acceptable: an exclusively heterosexual union where the partners will be left alone and eligible for benefits only if they produce an offspring, otherwise they have to declare their union to the state. This in fact shouldn’t come as a surprise, since this is exactly what the government of Janez Janša did to homosexual couples, forcing them to “register” their union with the authorities but refusing to allow marriage. And this is the crux of it all. The right wing’s inherent drive is to reinstitute marriage of a man and a woman as the only allowed form of a union between two individuals. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see how the Roman Catholic church is itching to chip in the “before God, until death do you part” as a compulsory part of a marriage ceremony.

Hold on to your hats

Luckily not all is lost. Tuesday’s fiasco seems to have happened more or less by mistake. At the very least, this is what president of the Parliament Pavle Gantar claimed in his tweet (protected, unfortunately) this morning when he said that DeSUS MPs got a bit disoriented for a moment and voted in favour of the amendment instead of against.

Parliamentary rules and procedures allow for amendments originally introduced in the second reading to be re-amended in the third (and final) reading and apparently this is what is going to happen. Mind you, things will probably not go smoothly. First of all, the Liberal Democrats of Katarina Kresal, the most ardent supporters of the new Family Code are saying that they will not support the compromise solution, but demand that the original version of the Code be passed.

While one can understand the sentiment, this will probably not be possible, because it would mean scrapping the whole second reading and most likely make the traditionalists on the left very nervous, perhaps to the point of withdrawing their support of the new legislation. And secondly, even when (and if) the Code is passed, this does not mean the end of the road. What will most likely happen is yet another referendum bid.

One ~~tractor~~ referendum (click if you don’t get it)

Aleš Primc said time and again that he will go all the way in trying to defeat the Code. SLS said about as much the other day when they hinted at the possibility of calling a referendum on the issue. And with this the Constitutional Court once again steps onto the stage front and centre. The coalition will most likely argue that having a referendum on human rights of minorities (in this case gays and lesbians) is unconstitutional as their rights are not subject to popular vote but inherently exist. Furthermore, the new Code does not limit existing rights to any group of citizens, but only increases the scope of population eligible for existing rights (or introduces new rights, whichever you please).

On the other hand, the right wing – with Primc as the probable primary plaintiff – will most likely argue that the the people have the right to decide what kind of a society they want to live in and that – if anything – this is exactly the issue one can and indeed must have a referendum on the issue.

The thing is that no one knows for sure what the court will decide. On one hand it seems logical that there can not be a referendum on human rights, especially rights of an defined minority within the society. However, things are not that simple. Recently, the court made it a principle to deny only those referendums which could result in a continuation of an unconstitutional state. Hence, a pre-existing and established unconstitutional situation must exist for the court to deny a referendum on a law addressing the issue. Which is sadly not the case here. This is not to say that a referendum on Family Code will be granted, but that the coalition faces yet another uphill battle and that the court’s decision – no matter the outcome – will be a landmark one, defining the issue of “acceptable” family for years or even decades to come.

Malo Morgen

As of Monday, DeSUS (the pensioners’ party) is officially no longer a member of Slovenia’s ruling coalition. That in itself is hardly news any more. Prime Minister Borut Pahor now runs a minority government which will have to seek more or less ad-hoc coalitions on a per-vote-basis which has in essence been the case for some time now.

PM’s “Malo Morgen” moment two weeks ago (source)

With DeSUS out of the coalition it will be interesting to see how the party and especially its leader cope with a new reality of their own making. Despite Karl Erjavec‘s exuberance (we’re bigger than Coca-Cola, he once famously said), things are not all that peachy. The party which played the king-maker twice (2004 and 2008) and which has seen a surge in public opinion polls at the end of last year, dropped as much as 50% in later months and now holds only a fraction of its former public opinion support. What’s worse, the remaining two ministers from DeSUS’ quota decided to stay on in the government, flipping a bit of a bird in Erjavec’s general direction. Combined with one of the axioms of Slovene political landscape, that the voters frown upon parties which quit a ruling coalition (i.e. are not team players), it all leads to the conclusion that DeSUS’ heyday is fast approaching an abrupt end.

This of course brings us Zares, whose leader Gregor Golobič also announced he intends to quit as minister and suggested all remaining coalition leaders (taunted by the political right as the KGB – Katarina, Gregor, Borut) quit their posts and in effect either form a new government with a fresh mandate or eventually bring about early elections. Since neither ‘K’ nor ‘B’ did not warm to the idea, ‘G’ announced his resignation effective on the eve of ‘Super Referendum Sunday’. Whether or not Gregor Golobič will be alone in that enterprise of whether he will be taking the rest of Zares ministers (interestingly, all women) with him remains to be seen. Ditto on how and if this particular departure would reflect on Zares’ poll numbers. The latter at the moment suggest that despite all the shit thrown at the party and its leader (and for some of that they’ve themselves to blame) Zares would have made the 4% threshold needed to remain in the parliament. Whether or not the trend will continue after Zares quits the government (and not necesarilly the coalition itself) is the proverbial 64,000 dollar question.

Not that any of the above seems to trouble PM Borut Pahor a whole lot. Last Saturday he threw a big pow-wow with his party’s big-wigs and told them to ‘keep their eye on the chessboard since not all is lost and they still can open up a path to both the king and the queen’. The metaphor was even more elaborate than that and pengovsky is not entirely sure everybody understood the message PM was trying to convey. In fact, it looked as if the PM himself was struggling with this particular metaphor despite being known for his poetic rhetoric.

At any rate, fact of the matter is that Borut Pahor is in much deeper shit than he is willing to admit. Some weeks ago during a regular press conference he went into a mild rant on how those who would have him replaced should first come up with a viable alternative for his position. Even more, he gave some substance to rumours that not only is the political right seeking to oust him from power but that there are elements on the political left who are looking for ways to replace him while continuing with the current coalition until elections in autumn next year.

Just who is seeking to replace Pahor and – just as important – with whom is a matter of some speculation. One of the more wild version was that President Danilo Türk was considering to switch positions, but anyone who a) is remotely aware of The Prez’s ambitions and b) recognises the realities of politics in Slovenia can immediately dismiss such speculation as ludicrous. Namely, The Prez would quite possibly rather gnaw his arm off before he’d trade places with Pahor, especially in the current situation. In fact, it is safe to say that no self-respecting politician in Slovenia would serve as Pahor’s stand-in for all the farms in Cuba.

Case in point being European Commissioner for environment Janez Potočnik, who has always been a likely candidate for the top government job. He has all the necessary qualities: he ranks high in polls, being in Brussels he is removed from the Slovene political cesspool (hence high ratings) and he has an illustrious record having operationally led Slovenia joining the EU and has been appointed EU Commissioner practically immediately afterwards He also has extensive economic background being head of the government Macroeconomic office before taking up negotiations on EU accession which in minds of the many makes him just what Slovenia needs at moment. The problem is he wouldn’t touch Slovene politics with a ten-foot-pole, or as he elegantly put it in his much publicised letter, he ‘has a job to to in Brussels first and he intends to finish it’. Which translates as ‘nothing from me before 2014 when my term ends’ by which time it is understood that Slovenia will either have made it out of this crisis or it will have gone down the drain already. In either case the current touch-and-go nervous situation will be long gone.

The other “eternal candidate” is President of the Court of Audit Igor Šoltes who is always speculated to be waiting in the wings. He to is a man of some ambition, but other than the fact that he is a nephew of a socialist icon/strongman Edvard Kardelj little was ever said why he should or should not become the prime minister. Indeed, whenever these rumours became too persistent he found occasion to deny them and is clearly not a contender. Not now, not in the near future.

The above leads to the conclusion that – if the rumours of a left-wing anti-Pahor plot are true – some people need to have their heads checked. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly the most likely candidates for such an examination come from the ranks of Pahor’s very own Social Democrats. Pengovsky understands that some relatively powerful people within the party believe that the latter would be better off with someone else in charge, that – in short – PM Pahor became a liability rather than an asset.

This line of thinking is nothing short of stupid short-sightedness. True, Social Democrats’ ratings have slumped tremendously, but if the party gets rid of Borut Pahor this late in the game it will go from really bad to disastrous. There is no one, and I mean no one within the party with enough credibility within the party to replace the PM. Some party heavyweights might think that they can protect their positions and regain clout if they install someone more likeable and cooperative as PM, but fact of the matter is that at the moment the SD needs Pahor more than he needs the SD. The PM could easily quit. In fact, pengovsky believes that he should quit his post ASAP if he wants to stay on top of the game. That he doesn’t do that can be put down to – depending on your point of view- determination, going for broke, vanity or naivetë, or a combination of all four. At any rate he made it clear that he intends to stay on, when he said that he will be replaced “malo morgen”

For the uninitiated, “malo morgen” is Serbian phrase meaning “when pigs fly”. It was widely used in the crisis leading up to the break-up of Yugoslavia, when compromise became increasingly impossible. Using “malo morgen” usually put an end to whatever debate there was, denoting that the person who used it will can simply not be persuaded to change his or her position. Thus, with PM using “malo morgen” he basically told that he will be carried out of the office legs first (politically speaking) before he quits the post of his own accord.

So, we’re back to square one. Borut Pahor now leads a minority government which technically has only 42 out of 46 needed votes. Theoretically the government can muster 46 votes needed to pass legislation by means of enlisting two out of three independent MPs and both minority MPs, but in this constelation things can get really ugly really fast, especially since one can not count on Karl Erjavec and DeSUS to support the government. They didn’t do it while they were coalition members so there’s no reason for them to start now. Given that Erjavec quite probably coordinated the timing of DeSUS bailing out of the government with opposition leader Janez Janša, PM Pahor can not really put faith in the rogue party’s promises of being “a constructive opposition”.

Pahor’s options are increasingly limited and they will be even more if and when Zares exists the government. While pengovsky does not expect them to defect over to “the dark side”, they will be one more loose piece of the puzzle the PM will have to take into consideration which is why it is entirely possible that Pahor will seek a confidence vote after the super-referendum Sunday of June 5.

Namely, public opinion polls suggest that the government will lose all three votes on June 5: on pension reform, balck market labour and access to archives. Top priority is of course the pension reform. Should this fail, the government already drafted a law on emergency measures with which it intends to cut public sector wages, pensions and welfare money in order to keep the state finances within manageable limits. Word on the street has it that PM Pahor will tie a confidence vote to passing of this measure, meaning that rejection of the law automatically means a no-confidence vote against the government which then assumes a care-taker role until a new government is elected.

Should, however, the parliament approve the law (which is by no means a given) then in a normal world this would mean renewed mandate for Pahor’s government to continue with current policies. But this being Slovenia and all, it is highly likely that the parliament – opposition included – will support the law, if only to prevent early elections and continue with an unpopular government in power to increase the opposition’s chances of winning 2012 elections.

In the coming days pengovsky will outline several possible scenarios for the benefit of the reading public as well as give you the low-down on all three referendums, so stay tuned 🙂

A Good Day To Die (Is EU Following In Yugoslavia Footsteps?)

Comrade Tito died on this day in 1980. Thirty-one years later the death of Josip Broz Tito is little more than a moment in history. Yugoslavia is no more, wars between nations have largely been subdued if not permanently ended and save Slovenia, which has made good use of the “congestion of history” in the late 80s and early 90s, most of the ex-YU countries are at different stages of what is lovingly knows as “Euro-Atlantic Integration Process”. But just exactly where are they headed? Back to where they once already were?

Lep Dan Za Smrt (A Good Day To Die) by Dan D

The main difference between the EU and Yugoslavia can be described using Marxist terms: The neglected German philosopher postulated that every society first needs to establish an economic infrastructure upon which it builds the social superstructure. Yugoslavia under Tito and later went in the opposite direction. It first established the superstructure and then attempted (and failed spectacularly) to adapt the economic infrastructure accordingly. In this respect the EU is much more of a Marxist project than Yugoslavia ever was I know some of you are rolling under the table in a spasm, foaming at the mouth after reading this, but it’s true.

Today, the part of EU which has money is pumping shitload of cash and guarantees into the part of EU that has none. Some EU members are talking about scrubbing the Schengen treaty and reinstituting border checkpoints when they see fit (“special circumstances” cited by France and Italy being the broadest of excuses this side of Jupiter). And, lest we forget, places like Hungary and Finland are making people nervous by either passing constitution that would make 19h century blush or bringing anti-Europe fundamentalists within inches of actually running the country. Not to mention the fact that right-wing nationalists are flourishing all around Europe as well.

What was once Yugoslavia saw this film already: the developed republics (mostly Slovenia) were pumping money into the bottomless pit that was the rest of Yugoslavia without hope of ever seeing it again, borders were drawn, re-drawn and fought over, all the while most of the republics succumbed to the spell of nationalist movements and the charisma of its leaders, including (but not limited to) Slobodan Milošević and Franjo Tuđman.

Historically, every multi-national entity Slovenia (or any other ex-Yu republic) was ever a part of, disintegrated in blood-shed. And to continue with Marxist theme, history tends to repeat itself. First as a tragedy and then as a farce.

BTW: The music video above is by Slovene band Dan D and is using images of Tito’s funeral as a backdrop to what is possibly one of their best tunes, even though it is a cover as the song is originally by Niet.