Some Ironies Of The US Presidential Elections

Now that the inital frenzy is slowly giving way to real life, perhapse a couple of thoughts on election of Barack Obama for the next president of the United States of America:

(a disclaimer: please note that in this case I’m only an outside observer with a keen interest and may have as such overlooked important details)

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OK, so political correctness was never my forte :mrgreen:

First and foremost, election results show that US democracy is indeed alive and well. I’ve always maintained that democratic prinicples are implemented by attempts at breaching them. WMD-related-hide-and-seek, Guantanamo, Patriot Act, purging of voters, you name it… The last eight years made the USA anything but a beacon of democracy and at moments it seemed that “e pluribus unum” seemed just a waste of ink on an increasingly worthless dollar bill.

However, the system, which was almost-but-not-quite derailed, bounced back and reaifirmed the old truth, that Newton’s third law applies to politics as well. Every action produces an equal but opposite reaction. But the real proof of democracy being alive and well is the fact that the system can absorb such shocks and swings.

This election was about race and sex as much as it was about politics, yet both were aluded at only eliptically. The irony of Barack Obama’s election for the top job is, that – in order to become the first black president of the US – he had to play down the race card. Even more, he had to pretend that race was not the issue. He even went so far that in his victory speech he only made a passing mention of Martin Luther King, describing him as “a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that ‘we shall overcome'”. Until now it was up to leaders of black community to try to convince the white establishment that “race didn’t matter”. Yesterday, Barack Obama told the black community that race doesn’t matter.

The same goes for Hillary Clinton, who was up against similar mechanisms, only from a point of view of a gender. Had she won the Democratic nomination, she would have to prove to women that she did not run for office because she is a woman, just as Obama reiterated that he did not run for office because he is black, but because he can do a better job than the incumbent and his Republican opponent.

On the whole, the US electorate is (still?) pragmatic and can prioritize. Race could have mattered. Sex could have mattered. Experience in security issues could have mattered more. But as the voters got a sneak-peek of an economic and social Armageddon, they realized that all of the above doesn’t matter a pair of fetid dingo’s kidneys if they’re faced with a prospect of going down to the docks to see if there’s some work.

Negative campaigning aside, Republicans – be it willingly or unwillingly – played a huge part making race and sex a non-issue.. It was as if a spell was broken. What seemed impossible only two years ago, was suddenly perfectly logical. While it was somewhat logical that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton did not trade blows on race and gender (it would, afterall be a case of the pot calling the kettle black), the fact that Republicans chose to ignore Obama’s weakest point – that they did not portray him as a “racial candidate” – contributed a lot to Obama’s becoming and remainig acceptable to a wide range of voters who might have voted Republican if the racial card was invoked.

And while the decision to ingore this issue might seem obvious, it was a very brave decision to do so. Going after Obama’s race would probably clinch McCain’s victory, but would poison – if not completely sever – itnerracial relations in the US, both politically and quite possibly in a society as a whole. But the Republicans went one step further. Not only they set a standard in term of race (or more acurately, reacting to a non-white opponent), but they also set a standard in terms of gender.

Although she may well be on her way to join Dan Quayle in the House of Political Horrors, nominating Sarah Palin for John McCain’s running mate single-handedly took care of the can-a-woman-ever-be-president dillema. In the words of Barack Obama: yes, she can. If the Democratic party made history, it was the Republican party which held the rear. And John McCain – especially his concession speech – was instrumental in this.

There. My fifty cents 😀

Hi! I’m Barack. This Is My Crib…

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With thanks to rollo for the joke

So there is a chance… I mean, not that things will be different, but they can be different…

This morning’s read: Adventures in Wheelville, Piran Cafe, The Good Doctor and my favourite moose as well as some economic insight by Investment postcards from Capetown . Plus the usual.

EDIT: The Onion reports: Black Man Given Nation’s Worst Job. Love it! :mrgreen:

EDIT 2: In response to dr. Arf’s comment, here are Obama’s victory speech and McCain’s concession speech. Indeed… Had McCain found it within himself to be himself throughout the campaign, it might have ended differently. Or not…. You might, however, want to watch for the crowd’s reaction to McCain’s mention of Sarah Palin.

Pahor Gets Nod As Obama, McCain Wait For One

As the world waits for the US voters to decide (failing that, for the US courts to decide, not that everyone is holding their breath), Slovenian President Danilo Türk formally nominated leader of Social Democrats Borut Pahor as his candidate for PM.

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President Türk and PM nominee Pahor (source)

The Parliament will hold the vote on Friday, when Pahor is expected to win the nomination easily. He might have a bit more trouble with forming the government, though. Karl Erjavec of DeSUS is again playing maverick and demands one of the big portfolios for himself (foreign, internal, judicial or defence), whereas Pahor apparently made it clear that all of those are off the table and offered him social affairs instead (curioulsy, that is exaclty what DrSean was asking the other day) Erjavec rejected the portfolio flat out, much to dismay of DeSUS’ MPs.

In any case, Pahor will have 15 days starting Friday to come up with a cabinet and will – if successful – be sworn two months and five days before whoever succeeds Dubya on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

No Nomination For PM

Contrary to expectations, The Prez did not nominate a candidate for PM yesterday. He is widely expected to nominate Borut Pahor as leaders of all parilamentary groups (save Janez Janša‘s SDS) stated that they will vote in favour of Pahor’s premiership. But President Danilo Türk said yesterday that he needs a tete-a-tete with Pavle Gantar the newly minted President of the Parliament, hoping that the parliamentary committees will have comenced work when he nominates his man. Türk said that he expects to make that move early next week.

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Waddayouknow! It’s The Prez 🙂

Why the delay? Türk said that he would like to coordinate with Gantar to have parliamentary committees and bodies up-and-running by the time the MPs vote on Türk’s nominee.

Which is a load of bollocks.

Contrary to his subsequent cabinet nominees, the PM nominee is not vetted by parliamentary bodies. Instead, he or she outlines his or her policies, if they choose so, parliamentary groups explain whether they support the nominee, after which a secret ballot is held, where the nominee must win an absolute majority of 46 votes. Period.

So, why is The Prez snowing us with his need to confabulate with his stand-in? Probably because he is covering Borut Pahor’s ass for a day or two, buying him time to re-negotiate a specific paragraph of the coalition agreement. Namely – it transpired yesterday late in the afternoon, that DeSUS and the rest of The Quartet read the segment on pension reform differently (suprise, surprise!). So, they’ll be ironing out the details over the extended weekend as tommorow is a public holiday in Slovenia, while simultaneously go about deciding who gets which portfolio.

Rumours are plentifuly and speculation is rife in that departement. The question on everyone’s mind is which portfolios will leaders of The Quartet take for themselves. While Pahor is obviously going to be the PM and cannot take on a specific portfolio (unlike in the UK), Gregor Golobič, Karl Erjavec and Katarina Kresal remain a mystery. The latter is apparently eyeing the job of foreign minister (an out-and-out bad idea), Erjavec is playing the table hard and wants to be either foreign or interior minister, while some add civil service and judicial porfolios to his range of choices, whereas Gregor Golobič has consistently kept his mouth shut over his ministerial ambitions. The latest unconfirmed rumours put him in charge of ministry for higher education, science and technology. Which I think is a good idea and is hopefully true.

Horse Trading (Divide Et Impera)

The Trio is now officially The Quartet. Social Democrats, Zares, LDS and DeSUS, members of the future ruling coalition have apparently reached a deal on the coalition agreement. While the actual text of the agreement is not yet public, it is known that the agreement will detail government policies in a wide range of fields, from media to workers’ participation in profit sharing and pensions.

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The Quartet (photo: Matej Povše/Dnevnik)

Especially the latter were a bit of a hold up, as DeSUS – the pensioners’ party demanded an across-the-table increase in pensions, but later agreed on an inverse increase, where people with pensions lower than € 500 per month will receive two € 150 bonuses in 2009, while those with larger pensions will receive proportionally lower bonuses (the bigger the pension the smaller the bonus). At this stage it is not exactly known what consession have been granted to Zares and LDS, but off the top of my head I’d say Zares stuck to its guns especially in the field of media legislation, while LDS remains a mystery. It is clear that – as a the smallest party in the new coalition – it had very little leverage and I wouldn’t be surprised if it kept its chips off the table for the next round of coalition negotiations.

As a sidenote: having a particular interest in the area, I’d like to reiterate the “four-point-test“, later ammended to a “three-point-test” which would in my opinion show whether the new government is serious about media freedom:

a) Change the law on RTV Slovenia, radically lowering the number of politically appointed members of both boards (to a max of, say, 25%).
b) The Law on media should be ammended, re-introducing the clause forbidding media contentration.
c) Forbid operators of future digital radio and television networks from becoming content providers as well.

Be that as it may, The Quarter now moves into dangerous territory: deciding who exactly will get a particular portfolio. It seems that Karl Erjavec of DeSUS succeeded with his demand of getting a ministry more than LDS, while it is also almost a given that there are some portfolios the PM-apparent Borut Pahor has already earmarked for his party and already has a specific person in mind to run it.

There are fifteen ministries up for grabs and up to two ministries without portfolio. Each ministry has a state secretary (something like an underminister), wheras the PM can name four additional state secretaries to serve directly under him. There are also fourteen Government Offices, some more political than other (ranging from Office for European Affairs to Slovene Intelligence Agency). Some of these GOs can be elevated to the level of a ministry without porftoilo.

And although they’re supposed to be left to mind their own business, one can be pretty sure that horse trading in names will also include parliamentary committees, as a party, which will have felt disenfranchised by its influence in the government will probably be compensated by a larger influence in the parliament.

In any case, things can still get ugly, as it is inevitable that egoes are about to clash. PM-apparent Borut Pahor already passed one test by cajoling Karl Erjavec back to the negotiating table. Now he faces an even bigger test, when he has to actually divide the influence and rule the government.

Today The Prez will hold consultations with leaders of all parliamentary groups, after which he will formally nominate his candidate for Prime Minister. He is expected to nominate Borut Pahor later today in or tommorow morning at the latest.

If, however, you’re feeling lucky, you can go over to Dr. Filomena’s and try to guess the exact composition of Pahor’s government. How many ministers will the next government have? Who will get which portfolio? How many of them will each party have? Place a bet with dr. Fil and win a prize!

BTW: Sleeping with Pengovsky went online exactly two years ago.

Wassup!?

You’ve probably already seen this, but…. Remember the year 2000? When our biggest worry was the millenium bug and where does Monica Lewinsky get her clothes drycleaned? When the main political news was Al Gore going for Tipper’s tonssils? When “watching the game, having a Bud” was a perferctly legitimate way to spend your time?

Well, thousands of billions of dolars, eight years, two wars, one drowned city, one Wall St. meltdown and one severely failed presidency later, things are just not the same on the other side of the Pond.

True.

Unless of course disaster happens.