Slovenia | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

Alenka Bratušek To Mount PM Bid Againts Janša Amid Row Over Sexist Tweet, “Left-Wing Fascism”

Demokracija weekly, the semi-official Party magazine (think Pravda or People’s Daily) ran a lovely cover today featuring Adolf Hitler and captioned “I’m a socialist”. Now, truth be told, a magazine cover featuring or alluding to der Führer is all too an often occurrence in Slovenia and the left-wing press is no exception. Really, someone should explain the finer points of Godwin’s law to them (yes, I’m looking at you, Mladina). However, this particular cover comes on top a PR and media frenzy over “left-wing fascism” launched by PM Janez “Ivan” Janša who labelled the protest movement as such when addressing the faithful on a pro-government rally two weeks ago.

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PM-hopeful Alenka Bratušek (source)

Interestingly enough, the Hitler-was-a-socialist line comes from a blogpost on The Telegraph’s website by Daniel Hannan MEP, a member of the splinter conservative AECR group. You will also note the visuals are the same in the said blogpost and on the cover of Demokracija.

Super-minister Turk and left-wing fascism

Additionally, Hannan’s post showed up on Slovenian radars last weekend when super-minister Žiga Turk tweeted about it (and was, curiously, RT’d by Jos Douma, Dutch ambassador to Slovenia). But the phrase itself, that is to say “left-wing fascism”, entered the political orbit some months ago, via Alan Johnson in – you’ve guessed it – a blogpost on the Telegraph’s website.

Slightly off-topic: Hannan’s silly litte post was picked apart quite thoroughly over at Zero Street blog, but for the sake of historical clarity it must be written that Hitler said he was a socialist to Otto Strasser mainly to ensure the loyalty of Otto’s brother, the able Gregor Strasser, who was tasked with organising the Nazi party in Northern Germany and who indeed was a left-wing revolutionary and who was instrumental in the party’s rise to the top. But as soon as Hitler won the power, he got rid of the Strassers, with Otto in exile and Gregor murdered in the Night of the Long Knives. Just so you know.

Yay, sexism!

Speaking of which, the issue seems to have ignited furore over in the UK as well. But you see what I’m getting at? In this day and age, when these things are easily googlable, the Party takes whatever it can from wherever it can find it, not bothering to do even the most basic of checks to avoid embarrassment (not unlike what happened with some of their MPs, mind you). Indeed, it’s a sad day, when a ruling party (let alone The Party) picks its defamatory talking points from the blogging section of a conservative newspaper. Nor is this good reference for the newspaper in question.

It seems that left to their own devices, the Party and Ivan himself have run out of steam and can do little more than insult everyone who crosses their path, demand obedience and indulge in conspiracy theories. Case in point being yesterday’s tete-a-tete Ivan had on state television where he basically repeated what he told the crowds on 8 February, only in a slightly more civilised manner. But the odds were evened by the Party’s official Twitter account with an overtly sexist tweet against acting president of Positive Slovenia Alenka Bratušek who only hours ago was nominated challenger to PM Janša in a no confidence vote.

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The sexist tweet (source)

Tweeting that Bratušek will last as PM only as long as her skirt is and her memory of [the ill stricken] NKMB bank activities are (Bratušek was member of the supervisory board for a time), the Party dug a new low in an already decrepit political environment. But the no-holds-barred approach probably signalises increasing frustration by the SDS leadership in pretending to be in control of the situation.

Challenger

Which they are not. In the last week or so we’ve seen a heightened level of activities in searching for a challenger to PM Janez Janša. Positive Slovenia took the lead in searching for such a person and at one point Bratušek came up with Miro Cerar, jr. But he turned the offer down, citing lack of a clear majority. In the mean time, however, DL, DeSUS, SD and PS held their respective pow-vows and decided to support a no-confidence vote against Janša with Bratušek as a challenger.

Now, it has to be said this agreement was achieved after much political wrangling, with each party more or less issuing a particular set of demands. The winners this time around seem to be Igor Lukšič‘s Social Democrats, who managed to coax Gregor Virant into ditching Janez Šušteršič from being re-nominated as finance minister, citing major differences over issues of bad bank and state sovereign holding. This apparently opened up a rift within the party pengovsky wrote about some time ago and a break-up of the party can not be excluded at this point (or, rather, a massive defection over to SDS camp).

Also a winner is – how does he do it? – Karl Erjavec, who is capitalising on his recent row with Janša over solving Ljubljanska banka issue and ratifying Croatian EU entry. But Teflon Karl is still up for his major battle as he is facing serious leadership challenges within the party and his recent anti-Ivan stance can and should be viewed from this perspective.

Janković “re-resigns” with a sunrise clause

This left us with Positive Slovenia, where both DL and SD (and to an extent DeSUS as well) demanded Zoran Janković officially and unequivocally quits leadership of the party. This already was a marked softening of positions, as these parties initially demanded Zoki quit as Ljubljana mayor as well. This put quite some pressure on Positive Slovenia, as Janković maintained he only “froze” his leadership position, while unofficially senior party people conceded Janković had for all intents and purposes resigned. Regardless, the would-be coalition wanted to cover all the bases and after a long session Jay-Z did indeed produce a hand-written letter of resignation, but left the date blank, saying that he’ll date it when Alenka Bratušek sees her government sworn in.

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Photo by Roman Jakič (source)

In pengovsky’s opinion this was yet another awkward move by Janković, not unlike the initial “freezing”. Would it really be so hard to simply say “I’m resigning effective swearing-in of Bratušek-led government”? You see, with “official” resignation Janković lost nothing. He had indeed removed himself from state politics and by giving the SD and DL what they in fact already had (although unofficially) he could have landed a sweet little parting shot and see Bratušek off to a better start. Bob know’s she’ll need all the help she can get.

Instead, he fumbled with blank-dated-but-signed letter of resignation, which was seen as a farce by many. Not to mention the fact that what we have here is a signed letter of resignation and a know date of its creation, so one could argue this entire hubbub is horse-shit and that we have a valid letter of resignation which has a perfectly valid sunrise clause. And the “sunrise”, that is to say swearing in of the new government can become a reality as soon as early March.

Turk gets away with it

One side effect of this is that Žiga Turk, the super-minister who conveniently dug up the silly blogpost on left-wing fascism may not even see his interpelation proceedings take off as the government may fall before that. Lucky escape for him if it did.

Captain Obvious To The Rescue As Social Democrats Aim To Oust Super-Minister Turk

Earlier today Social Democrats filed an interpelation of “super-minister” Žiga Turk (SDS) in charge of education, sports, culture and science. A constitutional procedure where the parliament debates the work of a particular minister and usually, but not necessarily, votes on demission of the said minister, the move is a showcase of political ineptitude par excellence and is matched only by the (initial) response of the minister and the party in question.

The original Capt. Obvious

Going after an individual minister this late in the game, when the entire government is falling apart faster than you can say “anti-graft report” is political amateurism at best. More likely, it is a premeditated political strategy of trying to engineer and then capitalise on a protracted government dissolution, picking off one minister at the time. As if PM Janez Janša will just stand there, idly watching as Igor Lukšič tries to pick his government apart. Tries being the operative word here, as the interpelation is by no means a done deal as SD has not yet secured the necessary 46 to oust the minister.

Captain Obvious

On the other hand, minister Turk, too, showed that he skipped school when political prowess was taught. In his initial response he lamented the interpelation as a “political act, aimed at testing the feasibility of a no-confidence vote against PM Janša”. Well, thank you, Captain Obvious. A political act? Designed to test a new majority? You don’t say… Well, here’s a newsflash: every act by the parliament is by definition political. And since an absolute majority is needed to oust either a PM or a minister, a new majority in the parliament will by definition need to be formed if the vote to dismiss Turk is to succeed. Basics, really.

But the real winner is Turk’s statement that the move “lowers the level of political culture in the country.” This coming from a minister who lowered the level of funding for culture beyond anything remotely acceptable. And not just culture, mind you. Turk’s was a portfolio (including R&D) that suffered some of the deepest cuts during Janša’s austerity frenzy. Whether or not Turk put up a fight for his turf is a matter of some debate, but when met with an uproar, he and his top aides were far from conciliatory. Furthermore, given half a chance, the minister would defend crack-pot social theories and pseudo science. And yet when the opposition throws the book at him, he sees that as lowering of political culture?! All this and we didn’t even mention the manure-hole that is his Party’s twitter account or the incredulity of various Party-friendly magazines and/or websites. No, really, when a senior SDS politico starts talking about “the level of political culture”, the phrase pot calling kettle black doesn’t even being to cover it.

Pot calling kettle black

Nor does it in the case of the SD. Namely, the party is riding high in the opinion polls right now. As pengovsky wrote a couple of days ago, they’ve more or less already started campaigning and Igor Lukšič made it plainly obvious that he’d like to see early elections being held sooner rather than later. In this respect his interests converge very much with those of Janez Janša, as neither of them would like to see a new political force (say, one or more parties) enter the scene. This probably put both parties at the top, allowing them to form the “Grand Coalition” (not unlike in Germany) and split whatever is left of the booty in this country.

That the two parties can overcome their ideological differences was shown many times, including a deal over 1,5 billion investment into Šoštanj coal power plant, where more sensible heads at the EIB apparently decided to have another look in the matter before coughing up a 440 million loan.

Now, on the whole, there is nothing wrong with a grand coalition. OK, so it hasn’t been done before in Slovenia, but there’s no real science to it. The problem however, if this were really to come about, is twofold. First, the turnout in an election with only the usual suspects present would in all likelihood be criminally low, thus perpetuating the questionable legitimacy of the political elite. And second: in the past twenty years a lot of people went in cahoots with Janez Janša, thinking they’ll be able to control him. None succeeded. Nothing suggests Igor Lukšič would fare any better.

In this respect, the move to oust minister Turk is indeed a pure energy waster, since it only prolongs the life of Janša’s defunct government, which will anyhow be rendered inoperative in a matter of days as both DeSUS ministers will formally quit their posts and the party will have left the coalition.

Glossary of a Revolution

Well, it’s not really a revolution (yet) and it’s even less of a glossary (yet), but still. Every day you (we) are bombarded with worryingly catch-able phases. Today we attempt to explain them a bit. 🙂

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Stop Janšing me. Photo by @komunalc (source)

Ivan – PM and Party leader Janez Janša. Due to the fact that his given name really is Ivan.

Zombies – People taking part in the Uprising. The moniker given by the now-infamous tweet from the official Party account

Uprising – What zombies see themselves as doing.

Left-wing Fascism – What Ivan thinks the zombies are doing.

Uncles in the shadows – A conspiracy theory concocted by Borut Pahor aimed at proving his downfall as PM is not his fault. Now used to describe anything that proves a politician incompetent.

Gotof je – A protest chant meaning “He’s finished”. Originated in Maribor. See also Fertik je.

Šturm Troopers – Jansheviks light. Will attend pro-government rallies for a free lunch and some pocket money.

Communists – Everyone attending the Uprising and then some. Probably led by a secret cabal.

Jansheviks – Ivan’s fanbase

F571 – A combo between Forum 21 and 571 signatures of a letter depicting the worsening media situation in Slovenia under Janša 1.0

Tycoons – Businessmen who amassed a relatively wast wealth. The usual fallback when either side runs out of arguments. See udbomafia and uncles in the shadows

Udbomafia – Older term for tycoons and uncles in the shadows. A much older term. Derived from UDBa (Yugoslav secret police) and mafia.

Fertik je – Gotof je, Ljubljana version

Comrade Capitalism – The spending sprees by state-owned funds and companies Ivan is not invited to.

The Party – SDS

So-called – A rhetorical figure aimed at destroying the credibility of the other side. Perfected by the Party’s very own Branko Grims.

Prince of Darkness – See Ivan

Forum 21 – A tycoons’ club. Or so Janša believes, as it was formed by former president Milan Kučan.

Duplek News – What anti-graft commission vice-chairman Rok Praptornik wrote for, according to Janša. Dnevnik daily which Praprotnik actually worked for years ago, was quick to Photoshop their logo into “Duplek News”.

drVinko – The grammatical-error-prone minister of interior

Jahor – Janša and Pahor. Together.

Bambi – Borut Pahor. He said during the election campaign this is the Disney character he identifies most with.

Deep-freeze – Anything remotely similar to non-move of Zoran Janković made when he “froze” his party leadership

Penguins A joke gone bad for PS MP Gašpar Gašpar Mišić. Now being used in conjunction with Janković being “frozen”.

There. Surely, If I forgot something, you good people will find the occasion to float your suggestions(s).

Come See Us, Janez!

It’s been a while since pengovsky last posted and a lot of things have happened during that time. First and foremost, coalition of Janez Janša is basically no more. While officially Gregor Virant‘s Citizens’ List is still the only party to have crossed the aisle, DeSUS of Karl Erjavec and SLS of Radovan Žerjav have announced they will do the same unless PM Janša resigns in the wake of the now-infamous anti-graft report.

Above, the 1984-Orwellian scene, below, Janša addressing the troops on Friday (source: all over the internets)

Janša of course will do no such thing. In fact, he is desperately trying to up the ante and make the other guys blink. So far, unsuccessfully. The reason Janša is still in power is not so much his political prowess (which is becoming ever more doubtful) but rather lies in the cloak-and-dagger politics where every party wants to screw the other parties dry and make it to the top in what increasingly looks like a snap election sans an interim government

Come see us, Janez!

But first thing’s first. With the wave of protest not showing any signs of abating, Janša had to do something about it. Indeed the rhetoric was using lately was getting more and more hard-line but until last week he was concerned more with keeping the coalition than with anything else. But as the anti-graft report seems to have hurt his standing with the party faithful in addition to his government sinking down to mid-teens in public opinion polls, he simply couldn’t ignore the issue anymore. This turned out to be a counter-rally, to be held on the same day (Friday last) as the so-called “third Slovenian uprising”.

The oxymoron of a pro-government protest aside, the whole shebang was organised by the Council for the Republic (ZZR), one of the main right-wing astroturf movements which has been holding rallies across Slovenia for some weeks now. These rallies have given us some epic scenes, the likes of ZZR president France Cukjati (also head of the parliament under Janša government 1.0) saying that “Janez will not cry if he quits… We will cry if he does”. Also, a ZZR meet-up in Maribor was heckled by anti-establishment protesters and plenty of fuss was made of it. Which is why many people were mighty nervous at the prospect of two rallies being held at the same location only hours apart. Also, since ZZR announced its rally much later than the protest movement proper, it was clear that Janša was looking to stir up trouble.

Luckily, nothing happened. According to police estimates, some 9000 showed up to support Janša. They were hauled in by buses from all over Slovenia and rumours had it they got some pocket money to boot. Also, media reported that no more than 5k people attended. POP TV has a nice piece with aerial images for comparison (Slovenian only). But be that as it may, hours later, the anti-establishment rally drew about 20,000 protesters according to the police, clearly drowning out any potential spill-over effect Janša was hoping for in the morning.

All in all a fitting setting for Prid nas pogledat, Janez!, a song by Otroci Oportunizma (Come See Us Janez! by Children of Opportunism), which in itself is a very smart rendition of Go See Him Brane by Otroci Socializma (Children of Socialism) some ~~forty~~ thirty years ago and which one of numerous gigs that evening. The Firm™ is keeping tabs on the protest music on its Facebook page by the way and the collection is becoming quite a sight. Also, you will like the page…

Left-wing fascism

At any rate, Janez (that it so say, Ivan, as is his proper given name) didn’t come see the protesters. In fact, he didn’t even come see his own people (lovingly known now as Šturm troopers, after Lovro Šturm, one of the leaders of ZZR), being tied up in Brussels negotiating the EU budget and all. Instead, the rally saw a pre-recorded address by Janša, not unlike the one we’ve seen on the eve of presidential elections in 2012 when he claimed a broad left-wing conspiracy is trying to derail the country. It was all rather Orwellian, really, Well, this time around he upgraded that particular rant with a claim of “left-wing fascism” haunting the country, trying to oust elected officials and nearly subjecting them to holocaust. Don’t believe me? Read the text in full. The party went to great pains in translating it and the grammar is much better than the last time around.

Bottom line: Janša is rapidly losing ground. Even though the pro-government rally made a lot of people who would otherwise not have joined the evening protest rethink their decision, it was mostly aimed at rallying the troops rather than dick-measuring contest of who gets to have a bigger crowd. That was to be only the soothing side-effect which backfired badly. Janša needed to show his people that they are still strong and that they love him (please, note absurdity of the sentence: showing someone they love you. It says it all, doesn’t it?). To achieve that, he had to not only haul people from all over the country to the capital and apparently provide a free meal and a couple of euros (reports vary from 30 to 50 per person) but he also had to rely on a blogpost (of all things!) by a British pro-Israeli political analyst Alan Johnson who some months ago bent over backwards in The Telegraph to paint Slavoj Žižek as a “left-wing fascist”. Yes, it’s that bad.

Not only that, but in the past few weeks Janša and the Party were dogged by yet another scandal involving their MP. This time it was one Alenka Koren Gomboc, who – it turned out – forged her education papers and was discovered to have had graduated only elementary school, forged a letter of recommendation by a former employer (a bank), who, it transpired has in the past pressed actually charged her with embezzlement. Koren Gomboc denied any wrongdoing and refused to resign, forcing the Party to execute a legal trick to cut her loose when things became too hot even for SDS. Namely, Koren Gomboc was appointed MP after Ljubo Žnidar MP was made state secretary on ministry for infrastructure. At the time it was speculated Žnidar was in fact “promoted” to make room for Koren Gomboc, an SDS heavyweight in Koroška region and – apparently – also a cousin of Janša’s wife Urška Bačovnik. Thus the only way to get rid of Koren Gomboc (and do it expeditiously) was to relieve Žagar of his duties at the ministry, thus returning him to the parliament and kick the replacement MP who was becoming pure posion, out of the parliament.

Bratušek wants interim government as Lukšič hits the campaign trail

In this setting one would assume that Janša would be begging for a mercy shot (politically speaking, of course). But he refuses to recognise any reality which does not include him as the top dog and – not entirely surprising – he is getting his way. For the time being, at least. Namely, in the wake of coalition crumbling, the newly minted acting president of Positive Slovenia Alenka Bratušek started manoeuvring for an interim government (a project government, she calls it) which would have an across-the-aisle support of basically all parties save SDS and possibly NSi and carry out a couple of widely agreed-upon project (including a reform of voting system) and then have elections called in nine months. Snap elections were the other possibility.

But this being the parliament and all, it was suddenly evey-party-for-itself. Some time before Bratušek floated her on proposal, pengovsky came to similar conclusions, albeit for different reasons. Namely, if the protest movement is to form a coherent set of political demands, it needs time (and more protests). Early elections this spring would add to dissatisfaction with the current political system as there is absolutely no party in the parliament which could effectively address the plight of the people. Bratušek, on the other hand, is probably more concerned with survival of Positive Slovenia as the party is hitting perilously close to the 4% parliamentary threshold in public opinion polls.

Those same polls, however, put the other opposition party, the Social Democrats of Igor Lukšič at the top, making the successor of Borut Pahor at the party helm very keen on calling elections as early as possible. Lukšič is in fact so eager that he already started campaigning. The SD is calling these events “public tribunes” but for all intents and purposes, the party leader has hit the campaign trail. Which is why SD MPs were lack-luster to say the least in their support of PS finding a PM nominee to put up against Janša in a possible no-confidence vote. Eventually they agreed (sort of) and for a day it seemed as if the deal is sealed. Even Gregor Virant, the guy who set this particular chain of political events in motion, was on-board (he, too, needs time as he has precious little groundwork laid in terms of party infrastructure).

Curiously enough, DeSUS of Karl Erjavec played ball. The Foreign Minister, who made headlines by apparently hammering out a deal with his Croatian counterpart Vesna Pusić over Ljubljanska Banka saving deposits by Croatian nationals, announced that DeSUS too will be leaving the coalition at the end of February. Well, the reason for Teflon Karl picking a fight with Janša is simple. He is up for re-election as party leader and needs to comfort the base, especially since he is facing a serious leadership challenge this time around.

SLS kills anti-Janša coalition to survive

And so it came down to SLS of Radovan Žerjav. This party too is up for a leadership change. Just about the time when the anti-graft-report-bombshell was dropped on Slovenia, Žerjav announced his resignation as party boss, prompting a party congress at the beginning of March where a new leadership will be chosen. Žerjav wants Franc Bogovič to take over, but the party is seriously split, with Podobnik Bros. (remember them?) trying to take it over again. To this end they enrolled one Laris Gajser, who goes by the title of “geo-strategical analyst” and has high media visibility to run against Bogovič. But only yesterday, the outgoing party leadership nixed Gaiser’s candidacy on administrative grounds, ensuring Bogovič’s election. Curiously, at the same time they also said the party will not be joining the other parties in a no-confidence vote against Janša, stopping PS, DeSUS, SD and DL just one vote short of necessary 46 to remove Janša from power.

This made a lot of people very unhappy, including Miro Cerar, jr., a prominent lawyer who (as a man of high moral stature and also a household name) was widely tipped to have a crack at the PM job. But SLS backing off in pengovsky’s opinion has little to do with the new ad-hoc coalition but rather with intra-party friction. Namely, it is quite possible that not supporting the no-confidence vote against Janša was the price Žerjav had to pay for other party heavyweights to agree to have Gajser stricken from the ballot and ensuring that Žerjav’s fraction will continue to rule the party.

Willie E. Coyote

And so Janez Janša survives in power even though he is very much in position of Willie E. Coyote, hanging in mid-air, knowing that the moment he looks down, he will go face-first into the abyss. But the opposition is not (yet) prepared to make him look down. And thus Slovenia remains hostage to party interests and power-struggles, while people pour into the streets in tens of thousands.

The Line Of Succession, Just A Heartbeat Away

Gregor Virant officially resigned as President of the National Assembly (the parliament) yesterday and took his Citizens’ List (DL) across the aisle (in a manner of speaking) and joined the opposition. For the time being, at least, until a new coalition is formed, a part of which the DL will surely be. That or snap elections. Or both. Anyhoo. Fact of the matter is that the National Assembly is now sans sans president which opened a nice little constitutional problem. Namely, the line of succession.

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Jakob Presečnik, the Veep. Sort of. (original images here and here)

Technically, it goes like this: The President of the republic is the head of state. Should the president be incapacitated or otherwise unable to perform his or her duties, the president of the parliament takes over. This includes signing bills into laws, appointing ambassadors and commanding the armed forces. Now, until yesterday, pengovsky was convinced the line of succession was taken care of and that the president of the Constitutional Court was next in line.

Fun fact: Dokler DZ nima predsednika, šefa republike potencialno nadomešča predsednik ustavnega sodišča. Petriču se najbrž fajn zdi 🙂

— pengovsky (@pengovsky) January 28, 2013

Well, guess what. He isn’t. In fact, it is not at all clear, who – if anyone – takes over presidential duties if both President of the Republic and President of the Parliament are absent. Now, Article 20 of parliamentary Rules and Procedures does stipulate that “if the President ceases to hold office, he is substituted for by the oldest Vice-President.“.

In accordance with this, Jakob Presečnik of SLS was appointed Vice-President-in-Charge yesterday. But Article 106 of the constitution stipulates that only President of the National Assembly can take over for President of the Republic. Which seems to rule out Presečnik. He himself said as much yesterday on state television.

OK, Slovenia is not the United States and the “presidency being just a heartbeat away” doesn’t have the same ring to it. But this is not the first time this has happened and one could argue that parliamentary Vice-President-in-Charge could extend his/her duties to stand in for President of the Republic as well. But this is far from certain. And lines of succession need a large degree of certainty. Therefore, you can be sure a legal conundrum will ensue if – Bob forbid – anything goes wrong at the presidential palace.

Bottom line: we’re only an ear infection away from a constitutional chain-of-command crisis.

Janša Taking Country Hostage As Virant Quits The Coalition

Yesterday Gregor Virant put his money where his mouth is and quit the ruling coalition, taking ministers Senko Pličanič (justice and public administration) and Janez Šušteršič (finance) with him. Virant himself also resigned as president of the parliament, effective Monday. Thus his party Citizens’ List entered the opposition and left Janez Janša with 43 votes in a 90 seat parliament, making his a minority government.

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(Image via @fraticesevalter)

With this a turning point has been reached, especially since DeSUS of Karl Erjavec is apparently going to follow suit fairly soon and SLS of Radovan Žerjav is also making noises about jumping ship (albeit at a later date). This leaves Janša with unequivocal support only ChristDem NSi led by Ljudmila Novak and nowhere near at least theoretically operative government. In fact it is safe to say that Janez Janša’s downfall is a matter of weeks rather than months.

Fighting tooth-and-nail

Things will of course not go smoothly. Breaking his silence for the first time since the anti-graft report which set in motion this chain of events was published, Janša today unleashed hell and accused Virant of partaking in a long-planned conspiracy to remove Janša from power. He also added he will not be resigning of his own accord and dared Virant and anyone who would follow in his steps to form a new majority and move for a no-confidence vote. Translation: Janša will fight tooth-and-nail to remain in power, if only in the form of a caretaker government.

And this is the crux of the matter. Janša accuses everyone and his brother, from the anti-graft commission onwards of destabilising the country. In fact, it is he who is the major source of instability. Coalitions crumble, reports get published, politicians resign. Sure, it’s time- and strength-consuming, but hardly uncommon in a democracy. What is uncommon is the notion that established tools of a (parliamentary) democracy should be sidelined in the name of “stability of the country”. Not surprisingly, this is very similar to what the Constitutional Court used as an excuse to ban referenda on bad bank and state sovereign holding, when it said that functioning of the country takes precedence over the right of the people decide these issues in a popular vote. It also shows Janša does not understand or – probably closer to the truth – doesn’t give a pair of fetid dingo’s kidneys about what the protest movement wants. But then again, neither do Virant, Erjavec or Žerjav. Let alone Igor Lukšič of SD or Alenka Bratušek, acting president of Zoran Janković‘s PS

In fact, it seems that right now the entire political master-class are hedging their bets. They’re playing an angle and they all have a lot to lose. First and foremost is Janša. His 30-odd minute rant followed by a brief Q&A on live television today showed just that. He was playing hard-ball which included trying to put a wedge between ministers Pličanič and Šušteršič on one side and Virant on the other. Indeed it would be quite a feat if both ministers switched sides. At the moment it seems unlikely but not impossible, especially since neither of them was elected to the parliament in the first place and is thus about to quit front-line politics. Also, Janša chided Virant for having the audacity to tell Janša what to do and said that it is unbecoming of a small parliamentary group to make demands on a large parliamentary group. In other words, everyone should know their station. Having said that, however, Janša did bring up the question of electoral system which – in addition to Virant – is supposedly the source of Slovenian troubles.

Talking sense into Janša

This shows that Janša is seriously considering the possibility of a snap poll and is trying to hi-jack the issue, again proposing a two-round majoritarian electoral system (which would actually spell disaster for Slovenia, but we’ll leave that for another time). But it would seem that someone talked some sense into Janša, since he did allow for other possibilities to be considered as well. And on a larger scale of things, the electoral system is a problem. It will not solve the current situation per se, but changing the voting system could address one of the basic complaints of the protest movement: the illegitimacy of the political system (note: not illegality, illegitimacy). Even more, this passage in Janša’s rant was the only thing which had any sort of a meaning, which means that he was trying to send a signal of some sort. However, what he conveniently forgot is that not only do (former) coalition partners demand he resign, the people want that too. And for a plethora of reasons, not just the anti-graft report.

Virant, Erjavec and Žerjav are also hedging their bets. A snap poll is not exactly what they want because they run the risk of being thrown out of the parliament. OK, so Virant won a couple of brownie points for having found his spine, but would be spent in an electoral campaign sooner than you can say “confidence vote”. Which is why he’d much rather see a new PM elected in the parliament than elections being held. Ditto for Karl Erjavec, who is locked in a intra-party leadership struggle which means that DeSUS walking out on Janša is as much a political move against Janša as it is a PR-manoeuvre to rally people in the party support within the party. Žerjav on the other hand is probably looking to sort out his succession (he’s quitting as party chief in March) and doesn’t want the party to campaign without a leader.

Predictably, Igor Lukšič wants early elections ASAP since public opinion polls put his party at the top while today Alenka Bratušek floated the idea of forming an interim government with a mandate to tackle specific projects including changes to the voting system and then hold elections in about a year’s time. Needless to say that PS is not doing particularly well in the polls right now.

But coming back to Janša: the only way he’s apparently ready to negotiate is with him continuing as PM. Should that not be possible, he already announced SDS will be returning to the opposition. And you can be sure that he will pull no punches when trying to shoot down anything and everything a potential new government would try to pass through the parliament. The problem is that neither the (former) coalition partners nor the protest movement see Janša as a legitimate player any more. But then again, as far as protest movement is concerned, every other political leader is struggling with its legitimacy as it his. Which is why also part of the reason they’ve ganged up on Janša.

Scenarios

Exactly a week ago, pengovsky wrote of four possible scenarios on how all of this can play out. As of today this boiled down to scenarios one and four. But despite everything he said today about other people being responsible for the situation, the primary responsibility lies with Janša. If he chooses to prolong the situation by clinging to his job (as he is likely to do) he will be indeed holding the entire country hostage to his political survival.

Which is why it is no surprise that the government today upped the ante in relations with Croatia which is to join the EU on 1 July. Janša’s Cabinet did not approve basic points of Slovenian brief to the ad-hoc court on Slovenian-Croatian border. Some say that happened because Janša wants to lay claim all the way to the Croatian town if Savudrija. Which would basically send the entire Arbitration Agreement negotiated under Pahor’s government down the drain.

Funny, how this reminds pengovsky of former Croatian PM Ivo Sanader who was looking to pick a fight with Slovenia but then surprised everyone by resigning only 14 days later and is now rotting jail. But that’s jus me being evil.

Protip: When You’re In A Hole, Stop Digging

The deadline Gregor Virant gave Janez Janša to quit the PM post or else… expires tonight at 2400hrs. Apparently a last-ditch effort was made this afternoon by Ljudmila Novak of the NSi to break up the staring contest but to no avail. Although he has yet to officially break the silence over the issue, Janša did throw around enough hints to make it plain he has absolutely no intention of resigning. This puts Virant in a tight spot, because he will have to make good on the “or else…” part of threat or lose what little credibility he has left. Or, rather, had gained during the fallout of the anti-graft report.

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(source)

It remains to be seen whether Virant will back off at the very last minute. Pengovsky wouldn’t put it past him to “extend the deadline” a bit, since apparently the political partied had nominated members of the State Sovereign Holding (SSH) supervisory board. And if pengovsky is correct and if this was really (mostly) a power-play of galactic proportions for the mother of all companies, the tension should start to dissipate.

You’re in a hole. Stop digging. Nao.

However, it could be, that despite everything Gregor Virant indeed dug himself too deep. Which is yet another example of Slovenian politics not being able to stop digging when in a hole. Virant is increasingly running out of options. If he quits the coalition and forces early elections, he’ll be made the fall guy for everything. Shit will be dug up on him, he will be dragged through the mud and all the bonus points he scored piggybacking on the anti-graft report will be just a fond memory. Indeed, even today some public opinion polls put him below the parliamentary threshold. Janša knows this, which is why he’s playing hard-ball. That and the fact that it’s his ass on the line as well. If he quits, he’s history. So, he dug himself in pretty deep as well.

On a tangential front Lovro Šturm, former judge at the constitutional court and president of the Council for the Republic (a pro-Janša think tank/astroturf society) started a pissing contest with anti-graft commission president Goran Klemenčič, claiming that the latter misinterpreted the law and that the report is therefore not worth a pair of fetid dingo’s kidneys. Klemenčič responded by saying Šturm quoted an outdated version of the law, which sent Šturm ballistic, denouncing Klemenčič altogether and demanding an apology. After several days, Klemenčič responded saying that he will not be having this discussion, especially not in such a manner and that he expected more from former president of the constitutional court with whom he even collaborated on several project. Again, Šturm just couldn’t stop digging and published an open letter of his own (Slovene only), again denouncing Klemenčič and even accusing him of (academic) incompetence.

Letters are written, shouldn’t have been meaning to send

With Klemenčič (for better or for worse) being one of the most popular public officials, Šturm dug a pretty deep hole for himself. And as if that wasn’t enough, days ago the Council for the republic published yet another in a series of letters in English, completing the collection of right-wing bat-shit crazy which was put on display for the international public. Completing? Not really. Slovenian NSi and SDS members of the European Parliament sent a joint letter to President of the European Council Herman van Rompuy (the very same which Janša tried to screw over) defending Janša at all costs.

Van Rompuy, however, responded to a letter by Ivo Vajgl, MEP for Zares who basically asked, wtf was all the that hubbub about Herman supporting Janša. Van Rompuy’s office wrote that at no time was Slovenian internal politics discussed. With this the right wing basically got owned. Again, people. Stop digging, ferfucksake. At the very least, think twice before sending any more letters. I know. E-mail is a bitch. But still.

General strike

And just to round it off nicely, most of the public sector unions (and a strong private sector trade union) called a general strike tomorrow, disrupting mostly schools, some medical and other public services. It all has to do with what the union sees as one-sided move by the government by cutting public sector pay-checks after having already cut down availability of these services. Case in point being the education system, where the government was hard at work increasing funding for private schools at the expense of their public counterparts and is now going for the double whammy of cutting teachers pay-checks as well. No points for guessing where good paying teaching jobs will be.

Apparently, this was another case of the government being hell-bent on seeing its policies through, that it wasn’t really prepared to negotiate on anything. What it did, though, was to simply drop some plans for reorganising kindergarten level of schooling but was until today unwilling to address the issue of salaries. And when it did, the negotiating minister Senko Pličanič discovered that he really doesn’t have a mandate to do anything about it. So, tomorrow at noon Slovenia will see its first general strike since the wave of protests gripped the country.

Should be fun, so watch this space….