There was some very loud campaign chatter over the past few days about Vladimir Prebilič teaming up with Social Democrats for the election. Specifically, the rumour mill had it that Prerod and SD were exploring a joint candidate list. Something about not wanting to split up the vote in March next year.
Following today’s powwow however, this will very much not be happening. Party honchos (such as they are), were debating several items, including the Prerod manifesto. But by far and large, the media was interested only in the SD story. And it turned out to be a no. This has all sorts of implications.
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Can’t we have some fun around here?
First and foremost, Prebilič (rather, his party) swiping left on SD left this blogger bereft of many a pun. Most of them riffing off the fact that Vladimir Prebilič used to be SD himself.
For example, Prebilič Come-Home. Or Prebilič Returns. Prebilič: The Awakening has a creepy ring to it. Prebilič Reloaded or 2 Fast 2 Prebilič, would lean into his defense studies background. And then there is pengovsky’s favourite zinger: you can take Prebilič out of SD but you can’t take SD out of Prebilič.
But now, none of these are usable and that just sucks. More seriously though, Prerod staying solo has serious implications for both parties and for the political bubble in general.
The offer was real
Prebilič said as much in a post-powwow press gaggle, when he thanked his opposite SD number Matjaž Han for suggesting the team-up. Prerod leader tried to downplay the whole scheme later on, and the word-salad that is the party press release (see below) mentions SD only once. But this was a serious offer that was taken seriously.
However, it turned out Prebilič is not the charismatic party leader he would like to be. When the SD-Prerod hookup chatter exploded in the middle of the week, the signal was that Han and Prebilič are close to striking a deal or have already done so, with only details needing sorting out. But Prerod executive council wasn’t buying what their party leader was selling.
Which is good for intra-party democracy but bad for an political usurper who claims he’s better at this leadership stuff than the guy currently in charge.
SD had a point, but so did everyone else
The primary reasoning for SD extending the offer as well as Prebilič entertaining it was simple. Self-preservation. Following Litijska and Spirit Affairs, as well as domestic abuse issues with Jani Prednik, SD started bleeding support for real. And that support went mostly to Prebilič. So, making a tag-team with Prebilič made perferct sense for SD leader Matjaž Han as he would sort of bring those votes back in one fell swoop. And if a couple of loyal SD people would have to relinquish their safe seats as a result, so be it.
While SD is bleeding votes to Prerod, this trickle is not nearly strong enough to ensure Prerod’s political future. Much less turn them into any sort of kingmakers. In fact, the worst-case scenario here is that SD bleeds just enough votes to lose two or three seats in the parliament, but Prerod still doesn’t make it past the 4% parliamentary threshold. Thus would cost both parties dearly. So from the perspective of trying to lock down what was already gained, Vladimir Prebilič being open to Han’s overtures actually makes sense.
But given the disparity in size and infrastructure, the balance of power in such a hook-up would still favour SD. And it was here, if not sooner, when many Prerod honchos probably asked themselves why are we doing this, again? Only a select few of senior Prerod people would have been even placed on the ballot. Even fewer would actually get elected. And you can be sure that about 100% of people who joined Prerod, did so to further their own political careers. So, why would they (potentially) take the fall?
Prerod is a herd of cats who can’t write press releases for shit
Reading between the lines of the word salad that is the Prerod post-powwow press release, the executive committee debate was intense. Of the nine conclusions that Prerod honchos adopted, seven directly address cooperation with other political parties. Even more, these seven conclusions are basically one and the same, written seven times over. As if everyone wanted their precise wording in the document, or else… My dudes, this is no way to run a communication campaign, much less run a party.
If we trim the press release down to its basics, we get something like this: Fuck, we can’t do this alone. Not you, SD. Hey there, Stranka Generacij.
In case either reader is wondering, Stranka Generacij are DeSUS leftovers rebranded, whose new president Vlado Dimovski brought in the remains of DD (Dobra Država) party, which itself was an SMC splinter group back in 2015. So, not exactly oozing power and influence, either one of those.
Point being that Prerod people know they need all the votes they can get but they also want to be able to call the shots. Good luck with that.
Election is in 14 weeks and these Muppets aren’t cutting it
Time flies when you’re having fun, huh? Or, at least when you are not doing anything of note when you should be working on brand awareness and name recognition. I mean, Prerod didn’t even have a fucking website until two weeks ago. More to the point, the weeks after the party’s founding, Vladimir Prebilič and his campaign were nowhere to be seen.
In fact, the most visible thing he did so far, was that cringey Muppet show. There, he was taking a piss out of the Christmas bonus PM Golob is mandating across the board, to buy votes shore up support. And it seems to be working, which means Vladimir Prebilič not only can’t really campaign, but also can’t really read the room.
With ten fourteen weeks to go, this is not really a good prospect. And staying solo, while understandable (and maybe even logical), just upped the ante enormously.
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