In the latest episode of the epic aboutfuckery that is the LD;GD podcast, pengovsky posited that the next election is 13 months away, at best. But then Matjaž Han of Social Democrats started making noises.

Election legislation provides a timeframe for the next vote and the powers that be will consider things like public and school holidays when deciding on when to vote next. And seeing as PM Robert Golob holds a comfortable majority in the parliament, it seems reasonable to think Muddy Hollows is looking at the next election in late February, early March 2026.
The logic here is fairly simple: On one hand, Golob will be in no rush to call the election. The last one was held on 24 April 2022. On the other hand, election Sunday keeps creeping forward in time, with each successive vote coming a bit sooner in the year than the last one. Which suggests early April for the big date.
But we must also consider Apex Aviary’s tendency to throw everyone off balance every now and then. If nothing else, for shits and giggles. Or maybe it’s a macho thing, or something. With that in mind, a vote in late February or early March seems more than a little realistic.
At any rate, PM Golob will clearly want to wants to set the pace of the election dynamics over the next year. However, Matjaž Han has other ideas.
Enter the Han
SD leader said yesterday that the coalition party will most likely not support interior minister Boštjan Poklukar in the upcoming no-confidence vote, but that they will not vote against him, either. This is technically within the bounds of the coalition agreement where GS, SD and Levica agreed not to actively undermine each other’s ministers whenever the opposition moved for a no-confidence vote.
Interior minister Poklukar is in a bit of a shituation lately. He OK’d a purchase of eye-wateringly expensive state-of-the-art police guard posts. The Special Protection Detail (think Secret Service) has apparently been running amok. Bad blood between Roma and non-Roma population in Dolenjska region has not yet subsided. But most importantly, that whole thing with appointing Senad Jušić as Chief of Police keeps exploding in his face. Even though Poklukar was most likely just doing PM Golob’s bidding.
Social Democrats are in a pretty bad shape right now. 2024 was a shit year for them Think Litijska Affair and TEŠ6, part gazillion. They consistently poll in low-to-mid single digits. To say that party chairman Matjaž Han has his work cut out for him is an understatement.
Fraying
But the SD have also been around long enough to know that bad times come and go. They also never met a coalition partner’s trouble they didn’t like. Doubly so in case of Big Bird’s Gibanje Svoboda, as the senior coalition party was giving SD all kinds of grief over Litijska Affair. Which is why Han didn’t bat an eyelid when he said that Social Democrats will abstain from the Poklukar vote.
Importantly, SD non-interference is apparently contingent on interior minister rerunning the appointment procedure for the Chief of Police. This, of course, comes dangerously close to violating the coalition agreement. Not that such agreements are legally binding or anything. They’re just pieces of paper with political pledges and guidelines. But they do provide a useful metric on coalition cohesion.
And if Han’s antics are anything to go about, that cohesion is fraying.
At this point, this is all just powerplay. Jostling for positions for the upcoming campaign season, if you will. Sure, the pissing contest could still get out of hand. Especially with Han saying that GS ought to treat SD with a bit more respect. Because that is a squishy-enough demand that Han can always claim went unheeded.
Save the date
So, unless things quiet down on the SD front, a vote in 2025 can no longer be discounted. Nevertheless, for the time being, pengovsky is staying with late February/early March 2026 as election prediction.
And it just so happens that 8 March next year falls on a Sunday. Now you do the math.