Jani Prednik, leader of Social Democrats’ parliamentary group resigned as MP yesterday. This came after his former partner credibly accused him of domestic violence, both physical and psychological.
And by credibly pengovsky means that there were recordings of his behaviour, which media outlets have seen and apparently verified. Moreover, Prednik is now subject to a criminal investigation as well. All in all, a shitty start of the week for the supposed rising star of SD.
If you think you or someone you know is a victim domestic abuse, check out police and government English-language resources on this. And if you feel your or someone else’s life is threatened, dial 113 immediately.
More toxic than a toilet in Chernobyl
Obviously, Jani Prednik turned more toxic than a toilet in Chernobyl, practically overnight. I mean, even SD has some standards. And yet, even though he resigned from his parliament seat (no doubt after party bosses strongly suggested he should), and even after he quit as SD vice president, he remains – at least for now – a card-carrying member of the SD.
In fact, the party hasn’t moved a muscle thus far, other than chairman Matjaž Han thanking Prednik his work so far, “doing the right thing in this situation” and “setting a standard for Slovenian politics.” Some standards, huh?
And while we’re on it, Prednik’s letter of resignation is something else, too. Sure, this turd of the letter was obviously polished by a lawyer. At the very least, it was written with the inevitable criminal case in mind. Still, the amount of self-pitying assholery he managed to squeeze in his resignation is fucking preposterous. Not to mention the fact that the former MP buried the lede and announced his resignation only midway through the letter.
Wither SD support in Koroška region?
Seeing as Muddy Hollows is about six months from parliamentary election, everyone is asking whether the fall of Prednik will also tank the SD, or if the relatively quick reaction (he resigned literally hours after the story broke) contained and minimized the damage.
The way pengovsky sees it, both can be true. It seems a safe bet that in terms of opinions polls, this will not hurt the party a whole lot. Firstly, because their reaction was swift and secondly (sadly) because the good people of Muddy Hollows still tend to look away when episodes of domestic abuse are in play.
True, this may be changing with Millennials and GenZ-ers, but neither are prime SD demographics. So, don’t expect the SD to see a long-lasting dip in the polls over this one. That is, assuming the party musters the courage to clean house and throw Prednik out.
That, however, does come with some drawbacks, no matter how odious this sounds. Because what possible negative side could there be for a party that cuts loose a (technically still alleged) spousal abuser?
How about the fact that Prednik is (was?) a massively popular SD politician. Especially in Koroška region. In fact, out of seven SD MPs elected in 2022, Prednik got the most votes, besting even chairman Han, and completely eclipsing then-president Fajon.
So, by doing the right thing and kicking him out of the party, the SD runs the risk of blowing a major hole in its personnel roster in Eastern Slovenia. Doubly so, if Prednik decides (like most spousal abusers do), that if you think about it, he is the real victim here and decides to run on a different party ticket. Say, a more conspiratorial party ticket.
Changing horses mid-race
And no, pengovsky is not thinking about SDS, even though Prednik apparently started out as a member of their youth organisation back in the day. One would like to think that domestic violence is a bridge too far even for the other former communists in this country.
But Resnica? The antivaxx, tinfoil-hatted, vaguely pro-Russian basket of deplorables? They could do with a locally popular boy. And who cares if the cops are investigating Prednik for threatening to kill his partner? It’s probably just government propaganda, and besides, everyone does that, right? Right?
Bottom line here is that SD is going to hurt, one way or another. Jani Prednik has overestimated himself repeatedly. Like when he ran for party president, only come in a distant third, and then threw a hissy fit. But as a parliamentary enforcer and bringer of votes, he was immensely useful. And come March, the Social Democrats will need that combo. They will not have it with Prednik, but they will be hard pressed to find it without him, too.
Tanja Fajon has a Taylor Swift moment
The only person who probably was quietly smiling on the inside was foreign minister Tanja Fajon. Egged on by Matjaž Han, Jani Prednik repeatedly made her life a bit of a nightmare, challenging her authority, playing diva and generally behaving like dick. In the end, Tanja Fajon did what he wanted her to do and thew in the towel.
Six months later, she is still the foreign minister while Prednik is a disgraced former MP.
I guess Taylor Swift was right when she said that karma is a relaxing thought.
