Tag: Janez Janša

Protip: When You’re In A Hole, Stop Digging

The deadline Gregor Virant gave Janez Janša to quit the PM post or else… expires tonight at 2400hrs. Apparently a last-ditch effort was made this afternoon by Ljudmila Novak of the NSi to break up the staring contest but to no avail. Although he has yet to officially break the silence over the issue, Janša did throw around enough hints to make it plain he has absolutely no intention of resigning. This puts Virant in a tight spot, because he will have to make good on the “or else…” part of threat or lose what little credibility he has left. Or, rather, had gained during the fallout of the anti-graft report.

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(source)

It remains to be seen whether Virant will back off at the very last minute. Pengovsky wouldn’t put it past him to “extend the deadline” a bit, since apparently the political partied had nominated members of the State Sovereign Holding (SSH) supervisory board. And if pengovsky is correct and if this was really (mostly) a power-play of galactic proportions for the mother of all companies, the tension should start to dissipate.

You’re in a hole. Stop digging. Nao.

However, it could be, that despite everything Gregor Virant indeed dug himself too deep. Which is yet another example of Slovenian politics not being able to stop digging when in a hole. Virant is increasingly running out of options. If he quits the coalition and forces early elections, he’ll be made the fall guy for everything. Shit will be dug up on him, he will be dragged through the mud and all the bonus points he scored piggybacking on the anti-graft report will be just a fond memory. Indeed, even today some public opinion polls put him below the parliamentary threshold. Janša knows this, which is why he’s playing hard-ball. That and the fact that it’s his ass on the line as well. If he quits, he’s history. So, he dug himself in pretty deep as well.

On a tangential front Lovro Šturm, former judge at the constitutional court and president of the Council for the Republic (a pro-Janša think tank/astroturf society) started a pissing contest with anti-graft commission president Goran Klemenčič, claiming that the latter misinterpreted the law and that the report is therefore not worth a pair of fetid dingo’s kidneys. Klemenčič responded by saying Šturm quoted an outdated version of the law, which sent Šturm ballistic, denouncing Klemenčič altogether and demanding an apology. After several days, Klemenčič responded saying that he will not be having this discussion, especially not in such a manner and that he expected more from former president of the constitutional court with whom he even collaborated on several project. Again, Šturm just couldn’t stop digging and published an open letter of his own (Slovene only), again denouncing Klemenčič and even accusing him of (academic) incompetence.

Letters are written, shouldn’t have been meaning to send

With Klemenčič (for better or for worse) being one of the most popular public officials, Šturm dug a pretty deep hole for himself. And as if that wasn’t enough, days ago the Council for the republic published yet another in a series of letters in English, completing the collection of right-wing bat-shit crazy which was put on display for the international public. Completing? Not really. Slovenian NSi and SDS members of the European Parliament sent a joint letter to President of the European Council Herman van Rompuy (the very same which Janša tried to screw over) defending Janša at all costs.

Van Rompuy, however, responded to a letter by Ivo Vajgl, MEP for Zares who basically asked, wtf was all the that hubbub about Herman supporting Janša. Van Rompuy’s office wrote that at no time was Slovenian internal politics discussed. With this the right wing basically got owned. Again, people. Stop digging, ferfucksake. At the very least, think twice before sending any more letters. I know. E-mail is a bitch. But still.

General strike

And just to round it off nicely, most of the public sector unions (and a strong private sector trade union) called a general strike tomorrow, disrupting mostly schools, some medical and other public services. It all has to do with what the union sees as one-sided move by the government by cutting public sector pay-checks after having already cut down availability of these services. Case in point being the education system, where the government was hard at work increasing funding for private schools at the expense of their public counterparts and is now going for the double whammy of cutting teachers pay-checks as well. No points for guessing where good paying teaching jobs will be.

Apparently, this was another case of the government being hell-bent on seeing its policies through, that it wasn’t really prepared to negotiate on anything. What it did, though, was to simply drop some plans for reorganising kindergarten level of schooling but was until today unwilling to address the issue of salaries. And when it did, the negotiating minister Senko Pličanič discovered that he really doesn’t have a mandate to do anything about it. So, tomorrow at noon Slovenia will see its first general strike since the wave of protests gripped the country.

Should be fun, so watch this space….

 

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Cultural Learnings of Azerbaijan for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Slovenia

The fallout from the report of the anti-graft commission is huge. On Friday the protest movement got a new impetus, putting Janez Janša and Zoran Janković side by side, along with the rest of the gang. Some 10.000 people attended the second edition of the “National Uprising” and the centre of Ljubljana was again packed, but it was in fact just a prelude to what turned out to be a bit of a cliffhanger Saturday.

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(photo by Smetnjak)

Namely, after calling, nay, shouting at both the Prime Minster and the mayor of Ljubljana to resign, Gregor Virant‘s Citizens’ List held a powwow on Saturday where they were they… waited. They were waiting for Zoran Janković and his Positive Slovenia to wrap up their own party congress, where they (finally) adopted their party platform which – to chagrin of many – puts fight against corruption high on their priority list. I mean, it is slightly silly to adopt an anti-corruption platform while your party chief is being slammed on the head by the anti-graft commission. OK, so Janković is screaming bloody murder over it and professes his innocence (as does Janša, mind you), but still. On the other hand, Janković being Janković, this is exactly the type of thing he would have done in any similar case. A tongue-in-cheek move, to piss everyone off and try to prove his point. Which is why it came as a bit of a surprise that at the end of the congress he announced he’s “freezing” his party leadership (cue penguin jokes).

Power play of galactic proportions

Hearing of it, pengovsky went oh-no-you-didn’t. This was the worst possible move for Jay-Z to make. He maintains he made the move to open the doors to a shake-up of the political landscape by removing himself from the picture and encouraging junior coalition partners to kick Janša and his SDS loose and possibly form an interim technocratic government until early elections are held. He maintains that he will have no part in any potential negotiations and will not contend for the PM job. Fair enough. But since at the moment the anti-graft report is the only game in town, his “freezing” the presidency (effectively resigning) by definition makes it look as if that was the prime reason and not the alleged political crisis. Also, the move fuelled calls for his resignation as Ljubljana mayor as well. After all the report dealt with his actions as a mayor. Also he could have simply said that he will not claim the PM position nor will he negotiate in any way, shape of form, empowering others in the party to do that, and achieve the same effect sans resignation. Alternatively, he could have resigned (or at the very least, “frozen”) as mayor as well and really send a powerful message. Either, or. He chose to sit on the fence and nothing good ever came from that.

Especially since the odds are, that the whole thing is just a power-play of galactic proportion over the Slovenian State Holding, the newly established mother-of-all-state-owned companies. Courtesy of the Constitutional Court and its “act on protection of the state” it became operational at the beginning of the year and has a nine-member supervisory board which is to be appointed by the parliament. Case in point being the fact that Virant called a “consultation meeting” on the issue only days after first calling on JJ and Jay-Z to pack their bags. Also, SLS of Radovan Žerjav extended their deadline for Janša to go from “immediately” to 8 March, i.e. after the board will be appointed.

Wet dreams of a Communist conspiracy. Also: Azerbaijan, douze points

Word on the street, however, has it that Virant is dead-serious with his threat to walk out of the coalition if JJ continues to cling to his job. That may be, but Virant is known for his being dead-serious over a lot of things but then backing off at the last second. On the other hand, he could have bluffed his way into a tight spot and now can’t get out of it.

Namely, the SDS (now lovingly known as The Party) is no longer pulling any punches and went all out against anyone who is doubting Janša’s fitness to do his job. This primarily includes the protest movement, which they’ve tweeted was “full of communist zombies”, pushing crack-pot theories about “left-wing fascism” originated by Slavoj Žižek (piggy-backing on a blog in The Telegraph) and generally claiming that the government of Janez Janša is the only thing standing between Slovenia and the Apocalypse.

Ironically, their main political targets are not Zoran Janković and his PS (after all, he and Janša are in the same fix) but rather Gregor Virant and his Citizens’ List. For there seems to be a pro-Janša fraction in the party some elements of which have taken it upon themselves to debunk the anti-graft report in minute detail. At the same time the SDS parliamentary group said that Janša resigning “are wet wishes of some people”.

Yes. Wet wishes. Not wet dreams. Wishes. Geez, you’d think these people were never teenagers, playing the one-string violin or something. Yes, I know it’s a terrible mental image, but still. Also, today the SDS released a letter in English (!) explaining their take on things, which can basically be summed up in one sentence: IT’S ALL A COMMUNIST CONSPIRACY.

No, really. Here’s an excerpt:

The last President of the Communist Party of Slovenia and later on the first president of the Republic of Slovenia, Milan Kučan, who despite his retirement still figures as the most influential political persona of the hard-core Slovenian Left, has in his public appearances as well as via the background networks, activated members of the former secret political police, communist veterans, network of leftist organizations and some trade unions, and is also personally actively engaged in efforts to replace the government.

Read the letter in full. It’s a lovingly compiled scrapbook of their collective delusions, bad grammar included.

This, of course happened while Janša was in Azerbaijan, the winner of 2012 Eurovision song contest and apparently a new strategic market for Slovenia. In what has become a bit of a tradition, important things in this country happen while the man himself is out of the country. You know, alibis and stuff. The only problem is he was visiting the world’s Most Corrupt Leader of 2012. What were they doing? Exchanging notes? 😀

Letters Galore

Truth be told, the SDS only wrote the letter after first denouncing a similar letter (of opposite content, naturally) by KOKS, an association of people of creative and/or cultural milieu. Signed by thousands, the letter states among other things that

The government has also responded to the protests by closing down the centre of the capital city of Ljubljana, by using riot police, horses, armoured vehicles, water cannons, antiriot fences and helicopters in what can only be characterized as a gross overreaction to the largely peaceful gatherings of Slovenian citizens. Top members of
Janez Janša’s party (SDS) have described the protesters as “ultra left extremists,” “zombies,” and characterized them as radical “neo-socialists,” in an effort to balance out the actual presence of neoNazis during the first Ljubljana protest (possibly organised by the ruling government itself in an effort to discredit the protests at the beginning of the movement)

Read full letter here. At least the grammar is much better 🙂

Also the newly minted President of the Republic got a letter. His initial response to the anti-graft report was muted at best (he was “worried”). He added a week later that he supports the commission but that it was up to Janša whether to resign or not and that he will not enter party politics. And today, when pressed in a letter by Janez Stanovnik (last socialst president of Slovenia and head of WWII veterans’ organisation), Pahor wrote a letter of his own, clarifying that he supports the anti-graft commission in its drive to clarify its competences but that as a matter of principle he will not call upon any elected official to resign.

Note how Pahor is bending over backwards to avoid saying anything on the position the PM of this country found himself in. Also, it is extremely telling that the president did not support the anti-graft findings, but rather said that he is in favour of clearly defining the commission’s competences. Which is exactly the one of the point both Janša and Janković dispute the commission. Bottom line: Borut Pahor is paying dearly for Janša’s support in the presidential race. He even has to cover Janković’s back, even though Zoki was in the other camp.

What does Auntie Angela have to say?

At any rate, Janša is back in the country which means this particular game of high-stakes poker can continue. Will Janša resign and pick a successor from within SDS, as DL, SLS and DeSUS demand? Odds are he will not. The stakes are simply too high for him. Some, however, say that he will be forced to. Not by his coalition partners, but rather by Berlin and Washington. Sure enough, the outgoing US Ambassador to Slovenia Joseph Musomelli has recently met with National Assembly vice-president Romana Tomc whose name was already floated as a possible interim-PM until early elections are called.

Now, this is a highly unlikely scenario in pengovsky’s opinion. Janša does not breed successors, he breeds followers. But the anti-graft fiasco was noted in Europe as well and it is quite possible JJ will find himself sidelined by Angela Merkel and the rest of the EPP pretty soon. Especially after the fiasco with alleged support by EU Council President Herman van Rompuy which turned out to be a gross misinterpretation of the facts Or as we call it – lying.

How does this play out?

There are three, nay four, ways this whole thing can go:

One: Janša doesn’t resign and roughs it out. Possible, but will leave him crippled for the rest of the term. Also, this probably only postpones the inevitable.
Two: Janša resigns immediately, no replacement PM is found and early elections are called in Spring. In the current climate of popular uprising, this would probably mean a very low turnout and a result which would only prolong the existing status quo (the PS would lose to SocDems, but overall picture would change little).
Three: a new coalition with a left-wing PM who is not Zoran Janković. This is unlikely in the extreme.
And four: Janša resigns, SDS goes into the opposition, while all other parties form a sort-of-national-unity coalition with a technocratic government which edges the country towards early elections some time in autumn, while it enacts the basic demands of the protest movement, including but not limited to changes in the voting system, anti-graft legislation and curbing austerity policies.

 

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Thus Spake Zoran Janković

As expected, Ljubljana mayor and leader of the opposition Positive Slovenia Zoran Janković rejected the findings of anti-graft commission which released its bomb-shell report yesterday. Indeed, Jay-Z made his case today con mucho gusto. He maintained that no specific corruption was found in his case, stressed that he was at the commission’s disposal to clarify details if need be, that his personal assets have not increased unduly and that all of it has traceable origins. Obviously, he also ruled out the possibility of his resignation. As a bonus, the executive council of Positive Slovenia did not even take confidence vote, thus going the whole nine yards for Janković. And while we’re at it: in a confidence vote by council of his SDS, Janez Janša won 98,6 percent of the vote (281 out of 285). So, no surprises there. Yawn.

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Zoki wrapping up his remarks. Photo by The Firm™

Now, it must be said that Janković did a slightly better job at explaining himself on telly this evening than Janša did last night. And that despite the fact that the anchor was the same one which kid-gloved Janša. Tonight she actually tried to press Jay-Z on a couple of points, but by the time he got on the air he got his story straight enough to go sail the programme like hot knife through butter (sail, knife, butter? Pengovsky, really? :-o) He whizzed through the numbers, made a couple of off-handed remarks about how he knows to crunch the numbers and reiterated that his assets have not increased, they’ve only changed in form (loans were returned, shares were bought, et cetera).

Playing Risk

Throughout the day Zoran Janković refused to concede a single point made in the report. And if one was very generous, one might even say Janković is correct. At least asset-wise. But what the commission states in no unclear terms is that Janković was repeatedly exposed to a high-level risk of corruptible behaviour and has indeed made this risk worse by his actions. Specifically, by having his sons every so often return part of the 8 million euro loan he effectively granted them by deferring payment when they bought his company Electa off of him and at the same time allowing the company to partake in financial transactions which included firms doing business with the city of Ljubljana or (indirectly) the city itself.

Janković maintains that no corruptive activities have taken place. Indeed, the report stops short of even hinting at such activities. OK, so Zoki is under criminal investigation for some of these activities since late September. But that’s not really the point, is it? What in pengovsky’s opinion the commission is trying to say is that not only must there be no corruption, but that elected officials must actively avoid situation where the possibility of such corruption activities existed. Janković responded by saying (more or less) this risk is always present. Which is true. But it would be awfully nice if this risk were as low as possible. For example, by not having the company your kids own do business with firms you deal with as mayor. It could be that everyone plays by the book but it don’t look very nice.

But come what may, Janković is standing ground and will not yield an inch, let alone a yard. And that has its own inner logic. Ideally, a politician resigns when the burden of fighting off allegations prevents him from doing his job effectively. He/she clears up the mess and goes back in action squeaky clean. However, this being Slovenia and all, a resignation is viewed as practically the same as admission of guilt. Just ask Katarina Kresal. Janez Janša probably did the same math and came up with the same result. Which is why both leaders have not shied away from astonishingly unanimous support by their respective parties and have had other people denounce the commission for overreaching and/or not doing its job properly.

Mexican Stand-off

On this note: the outburst by MP for Positive Slovenia Maša Kociper who went squarely against the commission saying that it did not execute due process and that such things have been known to have been politically motivated. Now, we’ve become used to statements like this from the people over at SDS and fellow travellers. Indeed, we have heard them. Today and yesterday. Plenty of them. But apparently even Maša Kociper whom Janković tipped as his choice for the president of the parliament back in 2011, could not resist the urge. Which is a shame, really.

So, what we have here is in fact a political Mexican stand-off Slovenia style. Neither Janša nor Janković will resign, but their posses are screaming bloody murder demanding the other guy quits. Lovely, innit? Add to that the predictable but nevertheless disgusting manoeuvres by Janša and his team about how Slovenia will come to a standstill if his government is not allowed to continue (and that whoever brought it down better know what they are doing) and you see that Friday will be much fun indeed.

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Shit Hits The Fan For Janša And Janković

The anti-corruption commission today released the final report on financial status of leaders of parliamentary parties (Slovenian only). It found no irregularities on the part of Borut Pahor (leader of SD until April 2012, now president of the republic), Karl Erjavec (DeSUS), Radovan Žerjav (SLS), Gregor Virant (DL) and Ljudmila Novak (NSi). However, the report states that Prime Minister and leader of SDS, the largest coalition party Janez Janša and Ljubljana mayor and leader of PS, the largest opposition party Zoran Janković failed to report substantial parts of their respective income. Additionally, the commission states that Jay-Z was on the receiving end of some 208.000 euro in transactions which originated with companies which do business with the city of Ljubljana, while JJ simply cannot the origin of some 210.000 euro of assets. Translation: shit hit the fan.

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The list of transgressions for both top policitos is long and distinguished. But to cut a long story short: according to the commission Janković failed to report several substantial shares and bank transactions and was repaid by various companies some 2.4 million euro of loans given. This includes the aforementioned 208k EUR where the commission states a huge potential for conflict of interest, undue lobbying and corruption existed. Janša, however, failed to report various real estate deals and loans taken, under-reporting the value of a luxury car, providing a collateral for a 500k EUR loan his SDS took out as well as providing collateral for a loan taken by family member (presumably his wife) and reporting a cash deposit in amount of 33k euro. Also, he is reported to have unduly profited some 100k EUR in a real estate deal. In addition, the report stated, Janša failed tot explain the origin of the aforementioned 210k of assets, used to finance various deals and expenses.

On a sidenote: it is interesting that despite the fact Janković lately got a lot of flak over alleged shady real-estate deals, the commission nailed him for what mostly seem to be purely financial transgressions while they threw the book at Janša on various real-estate deals (and one luxury car), despite the fact that he was rumoured to have had a hand in cash transactions in various arms deals and is standing trial on corruption charges in the Patria Affair. Ironic, to say the least. But more to the point: Both Janša and Janković denied any wrongdoing. Zoki is expected to hold a press conference tomorrow, while JJ went on national telly this evening and got the royal treatment, with the anchor kid-gloving him and letting him do the talking while she only occasionally interjected with a how-do-you-explain-this type of questions and, predictably, no follow-ups.

While it is no particular secret that the anchor in question is cosy with Janša it was still a shameless performance. Asked if he will resign, Janša played the ultimate gambit and said that…. wait for it… he doesn’t know. He then proceeded to add that he will offer his resignation to the executive council of the party and should they vote to accept his resignation as party leader he will step down as PM as well. This particular line of action is of course meant to rally the troops and close the ranks, not unlike what Janković did after the high-profile police raid in late September 2012. Also, Janša pulled the same trick on election Sunday in 2011 when he got his ass whooped by Janković, so this manoeuvre comes as no surprise and pengovsky is not holding his breath. Regardless, the TV anchor tonight said that JJ’s resignation would be “the start of a political crisis”. Just to make sure everyone knew what is at stake.

Not that anyone needed remembering. The SDS media machinery immediately went into full swing, with various talking heads decimating the anti-corruption commission as unconstitutional, biased and politically motivated. The junior coalition partners were none too happy with the story (alternatively: they were jumping with joy over the badlands JJ found himself in) and when Gregor Virant of DL called on both Janša and Janković to resign toute-de-suite, he immediately became a target himself. Sure enough, it was funny to watch Virant going all pious on Janša and Janković after his fiasco over getting ex-MP payment and earning a little extra on the side. But pengovsky is sure he relished the moment. Also, Janša himself unscrupulously went after the vice-president of the anti-corruption commission Rok Praprotnik, claiming that the latter is on a personal vendetta against him (Praprotnik reported widely on arms deals in Slovenia while he was a journalist at Dnevnik daily). Even Goran Klemenčič, the head of the commission was not off-limits, despite the fact that Klemenčič’s wife, Nina Zidar Klemenčič represents Janša in a number of lawsuits.

Also, Janša – in his trademark poor-me fashion – complained that he was not given a draft of the report so he could respond properly. Interestingly enough, the report states that during the course of the investigation, the commission found out that a request to a state-owned company for data on Janša’s dealings was leaked to him. An independent investigation into that incident was apparently launched.

As for the illustrious Ljubljana mayor: in a preliminary statement Janković pointed out that origins of his assets can be and were accounted for (which is true, according to the commission’s report) and that at no time was the City of Ljubljana defrauded (this also appears to be true, since all loans given to Janković-related companies by firms dealing with the city were reportedly repaid in full). However, Janković goes on to add that the commission did not actually find corruption, but rather found the possibility for corruption activities. This, in all honesty, is splitting the hair mighty fine. Often, appearances can be just as damaging as (non)actions. And while no-one really expect Janković to resign (he said as much this evening, reportedly), it should be noted that for some time now he was dropping hints on “a new mayor and a new team”. True, these were often off-hand remarks and no too much should be read into them, but there you go.

Oh, and in case you were wondering: the newly minted President of the Republic Borut Pahor “expressed concern over the issue”. Neat. Must be kind of weird feeling, since a month ago, while still running for president, he proudly said that “the support of Janez Janša means a lot to him”. Well, politics makes for strange bedfellows, I guess. At least this particular president doesn’t seem prone to bothering Janša with calls for resignation.

Well, at the very least, this will probably breathe some fresh air into the protest movement. The next big rally is to be held on Friday.

EDIT: I almost forgot. In a most telling sentence, the commission writes that “it does not have the authority to demand resignations of Janša or Janković”. Translation: if they did, they would have. Also, Janša’s first response was (as is usual lately) on Twitter, where he wrote that his assets correspond to his work (labour) of 30 years. A slight Freudian slip there, Jimbo. The money did’t just fall out of the sky, that’s for sure. The question is just what exactly did Janša do to get it.

P.S.: On a related note, a funny fuck-up occurred over the alleged reaction of the SDS on this report. Grega Stritar (@gstritar) has more on this. Read it up and follow him.

 

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Patriot Act: Constitutional Court Gives Goverment Carte Blanche

Earlier today the Constitutional Court nixed referendums on laws on state holding company and bad bank. Brainchildren of finance minister Janez Šušteršič, these are perhaps the most crucial pieces of legislation the government of Janez Janša pushed through the legislative procedure so far. Or will have pushed at all. However, regardless of one’s take on this particular set of laws, it is the ruling of the constitutional court that will go down in history. Namely, in its drive to prevent referendums on these to laws, the court – willingly or by chance – gave this (and every other) government a carte blanche. Allow me to elucidate with references to specifics…

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The sa(i)d ruling. Full text here

Normally, pengovsky would go apeshit over denied referendums. After all, that same court in that same composition allowed a referendums on pension reform and the family code. In the latter cases judges defended the right to vote at all costs, while this time around they liberally applied “values before rights” approach. Specifically, they said that the right to a referendum must give way to values of a functional state including creating conditions for economic growth, human rights, including social and labour security and freedom of enterprise, fulfilling international obligations and effectively enforce EU legislation in Slovenia.

The last item was the usual mantra of every government in the history of this country. “It’s the EU” was the trump card which effectively ended every debate. The fact that the Constitutional Court succumbed to it leaves a sour taste in one’s mouth. Ditto for “fulfilling international obligations”. Both items mean that any government can make whatever deal anywhere in the world, be it Berlin, Brussels or Washington, ratify a treaty and have a referendum bid killed almost instantly.

The second item, about human rights and social security is pure cynicism, the likes of which we’ve come to expect from Janša’s government but not from the supreme defender of the constitution. Allowing referenda on pension reform and family code a year ago, knowing full well both laws will be rejected and thus making sure life got no better for a lot of people, the very same constitutional court denies the right to a referendum on how to manage state (that is taxpayers’) property.

However, all of the above pales in comparison with the first item. Functional state including creating conditions for economic growth is nothing short of a “State Protection Act” or, to use its international moniker, The Patriot Act. As of today, the government can do whatever the fuck it pleases. Traffic fines. Education. The budget. Bad bank. Voting system. You name it. Anything can fall in the “functional state” category. With this, democracy is no longer a system but a random act of benevolence of the powers that be.

In the final analysis, the people of Slovenia are no longer the sovereign of this country. Instead, they’ve been relegated to status of “consultation body” which the government may ask a thing or two from time to time, but whenever the people would want to question decisions of their elected representatives, the need for a functional state” card can (and will) be played.

Not buying it? Try this on for size. When this same constitutional court nixed Tito Street in Ljubljana, again citing various values, it made it clear that was a one-off decision, although the court’s rulings are usually taken as precedents. This time, however, there is no such clause. This is it. Functionality of the country comes first, our rights as citizens be damned.

If you don’t agree with it, you can take it up with the Constitutional Court. Oh, wait..

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Do Things Really Bode Well For Slovenia?

A guest post by Primož Cencelj of KD Funds in today’s web edition of the Financial Times (link kindly provided by @AdriaanN) provided an itch pengovsky needs to scratch.


The new national logo (via FB)

Now, for the record: I wholly understand the FT serves a specific (if wide-ranging) public and I’ve no problem with Slovenians providing insight into Slovenian matters for foreign public. After all, this is exactly what pengovsky.com is about. That and tits. But I digress…

The problem with the said blogpost is that yet again an economist is trying to pass as a political analyst. Specifically, Cencelj argues that “while the low turnout indicates a majority of Slovenes feel disenchanted with politics, those who voted [in the presidential elections on 2 December] expressed a willingness to cooperate, to support austerity measures and to break the political deadlock – in effect echoing the cries of the protesters. So, in practice, the 66 per cent landslide for Borut Pahor has boosted support for a long-overdue programme to curb public spending. As a result, on December 4, parliament voted for pension reform and on December 6 for stringent state budgets in 2013 and 2014.” (full article here)

Now, if this were a government spokesperson, one could say that this was a thinly-velied attempt at a media spin (blaming both left- and right-wing radicals for the riots included) But since Cencelj is working for a private investment firm, one can only quote Val Kilmer in Top Gun. I mean, ferfucksake, there is no way in hell you can interpret a 60-percent absence in Slovenian presidential elections as any sort of support for anything. As pengovsky wrote days ago, the wave of protests and the low turnout are an across-the-board rejection of politics as we know it.

Pension reform, which was passed days ago, has absolutely nothing with the protest wave. In fact, the adopted pension reform, although unquestionably a good thing given the current demographics, is such a watered down version of what the previous government pushed for, that a new reform is inevitable in three to five years. Which is OK, but will do precious little for a lowered credit risk. Even more, the fact that the trade (labour) unions finally came to an agreement with the government shows the former still operate well within the framework of “politics as usual”. As such they are part of the problem, not part of the solution.

Case in point: days ago Branimir Štrukelj, one of the more prominent union leaders showed up at one of the rallies in Ljubljana. Seeing that he was fast becoming the centre of media attention, other protesters started chanting “no one represents us”. Which is a fact. The pension reform does not address the issue of the precariat. It only addresses the needs and issues of full-time workers. Which is all fine and dandy, but the point is that in a year and a half since trade unions and the now-ruling SDS shot down the previous government’s attempt at pension reform, so much has changed that the existing corporatism model of “social dialogue” between the unions, the government and the employers is of limited legitimacy at best. It should be noted that Štrukelj and his teachers’ union supported the previous pension reform attempt and that Pahor’s goverment for all intents and purposes could have been slightly more flexible in negotiations back then. But the point is that eighteen months later Slovenian economic future is no longer solely in the hands of the usual players. The new guys (the amorphic protest movement) don’t give a pair of fetid dingo’s kidneys about rating agencies, credit risk rating and equity premium risk.

Also, Cencelj writes that “the living standard will get worse before it gets better”. Which is the usual mantra in the age of austerity. And it may even be partly true. Partly, because in the five years since the crisis struck, the living standard only got worse. And it shows no signs of improving. History shows that things will eventually get better. But at what cost? One of the common messages of the protest movement, apart from “we’ve come to take back the country you stole”, is that the people are not the cause of the crisis, therefore are no longer willing to pay for it. And this is the (economic) gist of it. The bill for the economic slump is being shoved down people’s throats. And those who took to the streets are saying they will not foot it.

Some say those who protest really have no reason to, because they are not having it all that bad. Well, they’re not having it bad yet. According to the Slovenian Statistics Office as much as 13.6 percent of the population are officially poor while additional 5.7 percent are subjected to social exclusion (data for 2011). Altogether as much as 19.3 percent of Slovenes are not living the life considered average in Slovenian society.

Interestingly enough, the country with the highest rate of poverty is Latvia, which is being put forward as the model for solving the crisis. Really? This is the good that bodes for Slovenia? You see, when the really poor come out to protest, the credit risk will be the last thing on anyone’s mind. A lot of people will hold on for dear life if/when the boat starts rocking in that particular manner.

Bob forbid it should come to that. But if the proponents of “business as usual” continue to refuse accepting the new reality where the usual measures of things simply don’t count any-more (or, if they’re extremely lucky, don’t count as much any-more), everyone will find themselves yearning for the good old days of solid “industrial action”. And that includes labour unions.

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Second Republic (Again)

(note: the following should have been published last night, but the server was down for maintenance, hence the post is back-dated)

The balance of power in Slovenia has shifted. Well, the balance of power in the fast-shrinking political/media bubble at least. As results of presidential elections came in on Sunday and Danilo Türk conceded defeat, it became clear that president-elect Borut Pahor will play merely a supporting role in the new political reality. Usually, on election night the order of appearance of political players in the national press centre is clear. The defeated candidate (or candidates in case of parliamentary elections) comes first, gives the concession speech and slowly fades into oblivion. Everyone with a vested interest comes next, with the victorious side coming in last. On Sunday however, it was the president-elect who gave his victory speech in the in-between slot, while Prime Minister Janez Janša had the last word. Just so everyone knew who’s the boss.


Almost 25 years ago Kongresni trg was full of people protesting for Janša. Today they protest against him.

And what a speech it was. While lauding the victory of Borut Pahor, he announced – in the wake of the wave of protests which is still sweeping the country – nothing short of changes to the political system of this country, hinting at sweeping changes in the judiciary, self-government, election system, the constitution and so on. Pahor’s speech, on the other hand, was full of fluff.

At any rate, it took Janša less than 48 hours to come up with a slightly more detailed, eleven-point plan on revamping the political system:

-Electing MPs directly
-Provide for possible re-call of an elected MP
-Provide for possible re-call of mayors and city/municipal councilmen, limit mayors to serving two terms maximum
-Disband the National Council
-Institute a trial period for all newly appointed judges
-Keep the permanent mandate for judges after the trial period, but subject all existing judges to re-election by the Judiciary Council which is to be strengthened with judicial experts and supreme judges from other EU member states
-Set up a special court dealing in the worst cases of white-collar crime. Judges in this court to be nominated by the President and appointed by the parliament with a 2/3 majority
-Set up financial police
-Disband all agencies and institutions which cannot be found in other EU member states
-Take away all privileges enjoyed by elected officials after they leave office
-Provide for a simpler procedure to call early elections and form the government.

The political/media bubble was taken by surprise. It needn’t be. The “sweeping reforms of the political system” are nothing more than the same old story Janša has been going on about for fifteen years now, only slightly updated. You don’t believe me? Here’s a version from 2009 and here is the 2011 edition. No wonder Janša was able to come up with the latest version so fast. He merely updated the file on his iPad.

But despite all the waves Janša and his SDS made with the latest incarnation of the “Second Republic”, this is little more than clever diversionary tactics. Pengovsky tweeted as much yesterday evening and Janša’s further statements today only prove this point.

Namely, a day earlier leader of Social Democrats Igor Lukšič, trying to capitalise on Borut Pahor’s presidential victory, went in front of the cameras and said that early elections were needed in order to break the political deadlock this country is facing. But when journos pressed him on the issue, asking why doesn’t he simply move for a no-confidence vote, he said plain and simple that his party can not muster the 46 votes necessary to overthrow the government.

I mean, talk about political amateurism… Lukšič said this country is in a political deadlock. He added that it can only be broken via early elections (the same instrument Borut Pahor bent over backwards to avoid a year and a half ago). And yet at the very next moment he admits that he has a snowball’s chance in hell to bring Janša’s government down. Correct me if I’m wrong, but a government which you can’t really bring down is not particularly unstable, no? In fact, one would be hard pressed to put words “unstable government” and “Janez Janša” in the same sentence. Case in point being the fact that Janša is the only PM in the last sixteen years to have completed a full four-year term.

Janez Drnovšek was ousted as PM only months before his 1996 – 2000 term endend, Andrej Bajuk replaced him for eight months, only to see Drnšovek get re-elected later in the year and then quit two years later to get elected President. Tone Rop took over for the remainder of the term and got his ass whooped by Janša in 2004. Pahor took over in 2008 and saw his coalition crumble in 2011, forcing early elections later in the year, which – after a failed PM bid by Zoran Janković – reinstated Janša at the helm. Lukšič thus shot himself in the knee big time only hours after his man pulled off a political stunt of the decade and got elected president after first having been ousted as PM and later as party chief.

Janša obviously capitalised on Lukšič’s open-mouth-insert-foot moment and offered to hold early elections two months after all eleven points of his newest plan. But to call early elections would mean that the parliament would have to dissolve itself and with this in mind it becomes clear that chances of early elections right now are about two to the power of 276709 to one. It is thus obvious that the latest Janša blueprint is just a semi-clever ploy.

Truth be told, both Igor Lukšič of SD and Zoran Janković of PS rejected Janša’s blueprint, but since this was expected, SDS tried to sell this particular load of fecal matter as its response to the demands of the protesters in the street. There’s one caveat, though. While it is true that a few of Janša’s proposals are broadly going the same directions as the protesters’ demands, the PM is bending over backwards trying to side-step the fundamental demand – that he resign from office. And most of the political elite with him. The people don’t want changes which would lead to Janša’s even greater grip on power. They want heads rolling.

And in all honesty, Janša too doesn’t need this blueprint. He and his government are working hard to dismantle remodel in their own image education, health and judicial systems. With the media under pressure yet again, he can achieve his “second republic” just fine even without it. He already controls the parliament. He controls the economy. And as of last Sunday, he also controls the president of the republic. Not sure if Borut Pahor knows this, but that’s the way it is. The Second Republic is already here, its just that we’ve been too busy to notice. And Janša wants to keep it that way.

The only unknown in this scenario are protests. The political class, even down to “middle managers” is shit-scared and they honestly don’t know how things will turn out. I don’t think anyone does. Individuals who started the riots are apparently in police custody and newspapers report they were well organised, paid to stir up trouble and that the trail of money leads to a particular political party (no points for guessing which one). And among those arrested yesterday in Maribor are apparently four members of the Slovenian army.

The plot thus thickens. Mayor of Maribor Franc Kangler announced he will be resigning as mayor tomorrow, reportedly after having a pow-wov with Janša. Well, too little, too late. Demands of the protesters have long evolved beyond the issue mayor Kangler. Had he resigned ten days ago, he might have been able to prevent the havoc. But he didn’t and he couldn’t. Which is why he is no longer relevant and his resignation solves nothing. The people will apparently take to the streets once more and with Kangler out, someone else will become the primary target. Janša will do his damnest it’s not him.

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