World Affairs | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

Thaler…. Emen Thaler

By now half of what was once known as the Free World knows about the sheer stupidity of Zoran Thaler MEP who was caught red-handed in the Cash-for-laws scandal. But in case you missed it or are too busy either running a revolution in Libya or keeping Fukushima Dai Chi from complete meltdown, here’s the gist of it

Zoran Thaler in “undercover” action. (source)

Sunday Times ran a sting operation codenamed Cash For Laws aimed at fishing out corrupt MEPs who would take considerable amounts of common European currency in exchange for filing legislation on behalf of various interest groups (in this case a fictitious London-based Russian banker). After kicking a few rocks around, they found one under which four MEPs were hiding: Pablo Zalba Bidegain of Spain, Ernts Strasser of Austria, Adrian Severin or Romania and Zoran Thaler of Slovenia. The mechanics of this were painfully simple. British journos posing as lobbyists would sit down with each of our Fantastic Four and feed them a story about this Russian client of theirs who would fork out 100 k€ to be split among the four of them were they to take part in an “advisory group” to the said Russian banker. Having covertly recorded the conversation it all made for a few memorable pwned moments.

Revelation of Thaler’s mischief naturally prompted a deluge of moral panic, outrage and general hypocrisy. But the fact that an MEP was looking for ways to make money on the side is hardly surprising. To be sure, it’s not kosher, is a direct violation of the representative-of-the-people and all that shit and leaves a really bad taste in one’s mouth, but it is not surprising. After all, the European Parliament is infested with lobbyists and the supra-national nature of the institution makes transparency all the harder to achieve (let us skirt the issue of depth-vs-breadth of the EU for now). Fact of the matter is that influence and legislative powers of MEPs are increasing while accountability has not exactly followed suit. This of course makes for a very fertile ground for both legitimate and ilegitimate, legal and illegal particular interests and influences being brought to bear by various pressure groups.

But what is surprising, is the incredible amount of stupidity, arrogance and casualness with which Thaler approached the issue. His demeanour in the incriminating video shows him as this incredibly suave guy oozing coolness, as if it was all in a day’s work. You know. Go to work, drop by the office, coffee at the parliamentary group’s HQ, debate the directive on fish droppings, file an amendment, vote, post-vote cocktails, have dinner with lobbyists, agree to represent special interest, go home and then do it all over again. This casualness bordered on arrogance when Thaler proposed he serve as a member of this “advisory group” for a year after which the “lobbyists” would decide whether he’s good enough for them. The now-former MEP for Slovenia was apparently so sure of himself and his actions that he decided to play the long game, possibly counting on some serious money down the road.

Which is probably the reason he acted stupid in the first place and agreed to be in this “advisory group” whose members were tricked into believing they will split some 100k€ among them. Provided the Sunday Times fished out only four rotten MEPs, this means a yearly fee of 25k€, whereas Thaler got a 30k€ severance pay upon tendering his resignation. So, you get 30k€ for doing the right thing and resigning and 25k€ for doing the wrong thing and perverting the legislative process (in addition to a 7k€ minimum pay-check every month). The only way this computes (apart from the possibility of the MEP in question being severely retarded) is if he hoped for some serious dough later on. And odds are he was doing just that. It transpired that apart from “doing a bit on the side”, Thaler (who, by the way, served as Slovenian foreign minister twice) tried to persuade the phantom Russian banker into a 1.5 million euro investment into a restaurant in Slovene Istria he holds a stake in. 1.5 mil, that’s a lot even for a corrupt MEP.

Facepalms don’t end there, however. Thaler’s initial reaction to the clustefuck of his own devising was that he knew all along that the whole thing was a scam and that he wanted to discover who was behind it. So, besides being an elected representative of the people, he styled him self as a double agent, a mole in the dark world of lobbyists and special interest, who wants to expose the bad guys inflicting unspeakable damage to institutions of the EU. One man against the armies of capital.

Yeah. And then the marmot wraps the chocolate. Were there a contest for the lamest excuse ever, Thaler would have won the second prize. He wouldn’t win because his excuse is that lame. I mean, wtf? It wasn’t even funny, his explanation. It wasn’t even cheesy, although some time ago Thaler was jokingly renamed from Zoran to Emen (Emen Thaler, get it?) But this they-were-out-to-get-me reflex is getting real old real fast. True, they were out to get him, but for a reason!

The whole thing is of course highly embarrassing for Slovenian PM Borut Pahor as well. Namely, although he is not a party member, Thaler ran for MEP on Pahor’s Social Democrats ticket and indeed headed the entire list. SD were quick to put a daylight between Thaler and themselves, but to little avail. The damage was done and all the party can do is to try to contain it as much as possible. This was done mostly by cutting Thaler loose immediately, not in the least by his fellow Social Democrats’ MEP Tanja Fajon who immediatelly called for a full and unfettered investigation into the corruption claims and called for any and all MEPs who are implicated to resign immediately.

In all honesty it has to be said that for the time being, the corruption seems to be spread evenly among the major parliamentary groups in the European Parliament. Or, at the very least, the Sunday Times knows how to ensure political neutrality even in corruption cases 🙂 But as far as Pahor’s Social Democrats are concerned, they have their work cut out for them. Just repeating that Thaler never was a party member will not be nearly enough. Their only break comes in the fact that even in Slovenia European Parliament is considered a distant and somehow less important institution.

But the extent of the fallout will depend on the behaviour of Thaler’s sucessor. The SD were close to another fuckup as next in line for Thaler’s seat was Pahor’s advisor Andrej Horvat who is also being investigated on corruption claims. Regardless of whether the charges are valid or not, sending him to Brussels would send a seriously wrong message. PM Pahor realised that soon enough and started twisting Horvat’s arm to take a pass on the Brussels seat. But Horvat was not easily convinced (either as a tactic or for real) and it was only yesterday that he finally said that he will not take Thaler’s stand and even that after Dušan Kumer and Miran Potrč, two reliable party heavyweights, twisted and apparently broke Horvat’s arm.

Thus Zoran Thaler (who, by the way sports appallingly bad English, especially for a guy who was this country’s foreign minister twice) will be succeeded by Mojca Kleva, a member of the upcoming generation of Social Democrats. How she will handle her new-and-unexpected political promotion remains to be seen. Although she has some experience in the corridors of Brussels bureaucracy and politcs, she runs the risk of being eaten alive by the sharks in the pool. But (full disclosure) pengovsky knows her personally (we’ve been colleagues at the university) and is convinced that she will put up a decent fight at the very least.

My only regret is that I never took the time for that coffee we kept promising each other for the past three years 🙂

A Libyan Perspective in 7 Pictures

Colonel and Sarko. Those were the days, my friend… (source)

Picture 1: When the Soviet Union went to spread Communism in Afghanistan in 1979, they were hoping for a quick in-and-out. Based on complete and utter lack of perspective, Leonid Brezhnev sent in the troops to protect the socialist Afghan government and then demanded that Afghan leader Nur Muhammad Taraki secure the support of petite bourgeoisie, as per “manual of communist revolution”. The fact that there was no petite bourgeoisie in Afghanistan to begin with was a fact entirely lost on the Soviet leader. The rest, as they say, is history.

Picture 2: Reacting to increasing Soviet in the country, the United States started arming, training and bankrolling anti-communist insurgents. After the Soviet Union fell apart and retreated from Afghanistan, the insurgents came to power and became known as the Taleban. The rest, as they say, is history.

Picture 3: When Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser decided to nationalise the Suez Canal, it prompted the military intervention of France and the United Kingdom who in cohort with Israel attacked Egypt and tried to topple Nasser’s regime. Officially, the pretext for Anglo-French intervention was Israeli invasion of Sinai Peninsula with France and UK deploying forces to “separate the warring sides”. The plan backfired as the US administration of President Eisenhower threatened to dump a whole lot of British sovereign bonds and send the value of the pound spiralling down. The British backed out of the action with the French following suit, both effectively relinquishing heavy-weight status on the world stage. The rest, as they say, is history.

Picture 4: When Somalia disintegrated from within, the United Nations mandated a US led humanitarian intervention in an increasingly ugly civil war. Without trying to pick a side they tried to bring peace to a conflict they didn’t understand, let alone controlled. Applying tactics and politics which resembled trying to have the cake and eat it, the intervention, although initially moderately successful, failed spectacularly. The rest, as they say, is history.

Picture 5: Three words. Bush, Iraq, WMDs. Nuff said.

Picture 6: Interestingly, no-one is contemplating military intervention in Iran (at least since Bush is gone), despite the fact that it has a stronger and more united opposition than many of the countries of the “Jasmine revolution” as well as previous experience with democracy.

Picture 7: Today, we have an US president who is desperately trying to wind up two ongoing wars, and embattled French president and a freshly minted UK prime minister, all of them with massive problems at home. Then we have a North-African leader of questionable mental balance with whom the whole world was eager to shake hands with, as Libya was one of the few places where money could be made, corruption and human rights be damned. And then we have a hastily put together UN Security Council resolution authorising the first military action against a sovereign country since post 9/11 US invasion of Afghanistan and first “humanitarian intervention” since Kosovo in 1999.

And let us not forget that for all intents and purposes, Libya still is a sovereign country with a legitimate (if dictatorial and unstable) leader. Seems to me that what we have here is an overzealous Sarkozy, a naive Cameron and a tired Obama, who is probably more than happy that someone else is taking the initiative. Problem is, it has been 55 years since France and the UK played a leading role in a real-life action flick. The other problem is, nobody really knows if the rebels really are “the good guys”. From what we know, they’re just “the other guys”. But if someone failed to land that lucrative deal, they quite possibly started to look a whole lot better than they may turn out to be.

And all of a sudden the West will find itself in another war which will drag on and on….

Slovenia To Get It’s Very Own Guantanamo Detainee

Gitmo, Big O, and Lil’ B. (source and source)

Just as detailed in the now-infamous Wikileaks cable, Slovene PM Borut Pahor and US President Barack Obama discussed the possibility of Slovenia taking in a Gitmo detainee. The discussion apparently bore fruit as the government is mulling changes to the Aliens Act, expanding the possibilities of allowing temporary settlement of individuals for “political, cultural, economic and other reasons”. Political being the operative word, obviously.

Just as obviously, the possibility of a Gitmo detainee in Slovenia raised hair on the backs of defenders of all things Slovenian. Things like “al-Qaida in Slovenia” were being said with some people practically expecting a pair of 757s being parked into the Twin Towers of Nova Ljubljanska Banka across the street from the parliament and similar bullshit.

That resettlement of a Gitmo detainee is closely connected to the general state of Slovenia- US relations is no secret. At first glance it can be considered as a good-will/kiss-up gesture by Prime Minister Borut Pahor to President Barack Obama. After all, the US manhandled Croatia into signing the Arbitration Agreement with Slovenia and is the one player which decides how much clout Slovenia can have in the Balkans. Not to mention the fact that Slovenia is wooing US investors big time.

The fact that recent exploits of Slovenian economic diplomacy in the Arab and North African world have, for the time being at least, turned into desert dust since dictatorships of the area are being revolutionised, only adds to the necessity of being chums with people who still have money.

But I digress. The point is that both Slovenian government and the US Ambassador to Slovenia Joseph Mussomelli are bending over backwards to point out how this is a humanitarian gesture on Slovenian part and how we are helping out our American buddies to clean up this big pile of human rights abuse they’ve accumulated on their door step and with which they would have nothing to do any more, thank you very much.

If this really were the case, then Slovenia would be quite right to flip the bird to Washington, tell the Americans to fuck off and sort Gitmo out for themselves. I mean, why is it that US allies all over the world must now take in people who were denied fair trial, presumption of innocence and every other goodie of Habeas Corpus, whereas the US is now playing dumb and continues to promote democracy and human righst al over the world?

However, the case for Slovenia taking in a Gitmo detainee(s) is quite simple. Courtesy of the once-eternal Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel Slovenia signed the Vilinius Letter, effectivelly joining the Coalition of the Willing and supported the illegal and unjustified US invasion and occupation of Iraq. Slovenia later sent military and police instructors to that country, further involving itself in the mess of George W. Bush‘s making. It is only fair we contribute in resolving the mess too.

We helped fuck it up. We should also help clean it up.

Pahor-Obama: A Very Special Huddle (But Not All That Special)

So, Big O. met Lil’ B. regardless… Yesterday Prime Minister Borut Pahor concluded his visit the United States. This in itself would be of only mild importance had it not been for the infamous Wikileaks cable detailing how Pahor did some diplomatic tit-for-tat and, among other things, told the top ranking US diplomat in Slovenia that this country will consider taking in one Gitmo detainee, but he’d like to speak to President Barack Obama for 20-or-so minutes. And – somewhat surprisingly – did get what he asked for.

Big O. meets Lil’ B. (source: RTV SLO via STA)

Now, fair’s fair and it should be noted that Gitmo and quality-time with the Big O. were only part of a bigger package, much (if not all) of which was discussed with various US players by Slovene delegation which included foreign minister Samuel Žbogar and finance minister Franci Križanič. The fact that the latter was on the scene suggest that preliminary talks with J.P. Morgan over the bank possibly buying a stake in state-owned Nova Ljubljanska banka may actually yield results. Personally, I wouldn’t hold my breath, although it seems that Slovenian delegation mostly got what it came for: pleading a case for US direct investments, American acknowledgement of Slovenia having clout in the Balkans and some face-time with Obama.

Truth be told, this wasn’t an Oval Office meeting. According to the infamous cable Pahor wanted a 20-minute private pow-wow with the US president, but instead got what appears to be a half-hour group huddle in the Roosevelt Room (adjacent to the Oval Office) where the two leaders were accompanied by their entourage.

Furthermore, it must be said that Pahor is not nearly the first Slovene leader to have met a US president. Way back in 1997 Slovenian President Milan Kučan had a private meeting with president Bill Clinton, which according to reports lasted about half an hour and every Slovene President and/or PM sice was either visiting or hosting the President of the United States of America. A year later Cliton was paid a visit by Slovene PM Janez Drnovšek. Then Clinton came to visit Slovenia in 1999 (co-hosted by PM Drnovšek and President Kučan), then we had the legendary Bush – Putin summit in Slovenia only months before 9/11 with Kučan and Drnovšek again playing co-hosts. A year later Drnovšek meets George W. Bush in the Oval office. Two years later, upon entry into NATO, Bush meets with Slovenian PM Tone Rop, whereas two years after that President Bush meets PM Janez Janša, who – again – two years later, in 2008, together with Slovenian president Danilo Türk plays co-host to President Bush while he visited Slovenia on his farewell tour in 2008. And now, two years later, Slovenian PM Borut Pahor visited US President Barack Obama.

Point being that starting with Clinton, Kučan and Drnovšek US presidents regularly met with Slovenian presidents and prime ministers. In this respect yesterday’s meeting is not really so much of a breakthrough as it is a continuation of Slovenia (again) punching above its weight in terms of regional diplomacy. While Slovenian politicos across the board consider themselves specialists on the Balkans issue, fact of the matter is that the moment the US realised that the endgame of Yugoslav wars will be played in Kosovo and took the Kosovar side, Slovenia was slowly but surely sidelined, although Kučan’s and Drnovše’s advice was much sought before the big boys decided to clear things up and finally kicked Milošević’s ass. Slovenia’s “special status” in the Balkans was of course confirmed by the 1999 Clinton visit.

Under Bush the US focused on their war on terror, life, liberty and pursuit of happiness and since at than time Slovenia was still outside NATO looking in, it continued to curry the US favour, often in a less-than-tasteful form (i.e. by co-signing the Vilnius Letter). Fast forward to 2008 and Slovenia has virtually no more clout in the Balkans (economic expansion into the region notwithstanding). Not that we didn’t have information, insight or opinion, it was just that the border dispute with Croatia was becoming an ever bigger mess, often almost on the brink of a shooting war. And if you can’t solve a petty dispute on your border, how can you give advice in the region? But that was solved, courtesy of big case of cojones on the part of PM Pahor and his Croatian counterpart Jadranka Kosor (with a little arm-twisting from Brussels and Washington) and now Slovenia can have a serious go at regional diplomacy once again. And since it is the US which shuffles this particular deck of cards, Slovenia again has to curry their favour, this time in clearing up the human rights mess that is the Guantanamo Detention Camp. Bottom line: although at times it looked more like Slovenia was blowing American dick and a lot of people looked away in disgust, Slovenia always tried whisper into the Americans’ good ear and for the past twelve years it has more or less succeeded.

Having said that, despite heartwarming assurances that Slovenia is an equal partner and all that jazz, it is obvious that yesterday’s meet-up was not a culmination of a long and successful diplomatic streak but a sort of a re-start, which had some good karma to it. However there are things that were conspicuously missing, mostly the fact that Obama did not meet Pahor separately but sort of “invaded” meeting with VP Biden. However, it is plainly obvious that the whole thing was carefully planned, despite a tweet by foreign minister Samuel Žbogar couple of hours before the meeting asking himself whether or not Obama will drop by.

This has all the hallmarks of a diplomacy Pahor-style, where everyone is playing stupid, allowing everyone to get what they wanted. Something like this happened late in 2009 when Bill Clinton came to a Diners event and bored everyone to death for 45 minutes, but refused to meet with Slovene leadership officially, apparently because the State Department will not have him pissing in his wife’s pool. But Pahor being what he is, he engineered a “chance meeting” in downtown Ljubljana. You can imagine the scene: a former US president just happens to be strolling down Čopova Street and the incumbent Slovenian PM by pure chance happens to find himself on that particular street and you’ll never believe whom he met…

The Pahor-Obama huddle is special when viewed through the prism of the Wikileaks cable which caused plenty of embarrassment and produced some very ballsy denials both in Ljubljana as well as Washington. In terms of defying the public outcry which – although largely unwaranted – followed the release of the cable, the meeting is both an achievement as well as a strong commitment of both Slovenia as well as US. However, when viewed on a larger scale of things, it only shows that what we are seeing is a variation of a familiar tune. A pretty good variation, but nothing radically new.

Bye Bye 2010, Bye Bye Belgium

Another mighty fine post by Dr. Arf!

Over the past year, I’ve been more of a mainstay here on this blog as a guest than the previous three
combined. Or it at least feels that way. I recall the good Dr. Fil encouraging me to shed some light on the
political impasse here in Belgium, which enabled new elections followed by an even bigger impasse. Six
months post- election and we’re still not any closer to any kind of federal government.

(source)

Walloons keep demanding money from Flanders for Brussels, a shitload of money (half a billion) with
absolutely no strings attached. Flemings say this will not do, not even if hell, like Belgium these days,
freezes over and is covered in snow. We’re experiencing the longest snow period in this country’s
history (17 days and counting), while the political Big Chill is also breaking records. Honestly, I as well
as the real political analysts round these parts have stopped counting the days. Well, the federal
elections were on June 13th and we’re now December 19th. Six months and a bit, that’s close enough.
Meanwhile, it’s all about the money. As stated above, Wallonian politicians want more of it, their
Flemish counterparts won’t give it without written promises about a new state reform, a solution to
the B-H-V problem (which hasn’t even come close to being discussed) and more importantly, a new and
improved responsible federal financing law.

All the while, this political instability has made Belgium a target for stock market speculants, the next
domino piece in the European puzzle set to teeter on the edge of falling over after Greece, Spain,
Portugal and Ireland. The EU has just agreed on an emergency fund to give a signal to aforementioned
speculants, but to my mind, you may just as well signal a pack of great white sharks that there’s a big
school of succulent tuna up ahead, making for a feeding frenzy free for all. Since there is no governing
agreement, there also isn’t any budget for 2011, which is a really pressing matter, because the federal
government needs to do some necessary cutting in the next couple of years to maintain the three
percent Maastricht Criterion, which states that EU member states’ government deficits shouldn’t exceed
three percent of its GDP. (Oddly enough, I happened to be in Maastricht the day this treaty was signed,
although the reason for being there eludes me now. Oh, the sands of time…)

A valid question here would be why the incumbent resigning government – which I’m certain could
apply for a mention in the Guinness Book of World Records as being the longest acting resigning
government – couldn’t just go on taking care of business while the ‘victors’ (ha!) continue to battle
it out. The reason is that this is unconstitutional and doing so could set a dangerous precedent for
future elections, when resigning governments could use the transitional time to quickly pass laws and
amendments they otherwise couldn’t. And besides, this would need to be voted on, even if it were a
measure to be used only under special circumstances (like now), and a resigning government cannot put
up new laws and amendments for voting even if they wanted. So much for that theory…

All the while the public dissent concerning Belgian politics and more so Belgian politicians is growing,
but alas not to the point where a strong public signal is considered, but rather to a dangerous sense of
indifference which has set in. Also growing is a sense of tedium and fatigue, among both politicians and
constituents. Just about everyone is sick and tired of being sick and tired of this whole mess. Meanwhile,
our fellow countries wonder why we don’t hurry up, but like Prof. Carl Devos, political analyst, says, so

much time has been wasted already due to egomania and childish playground behaviour, that hurrying
up just for the sake of hurrying up because the neighbours want us to is a bad thing. As tiresome as this
whole political manure heap has become, he urges to apply a ‘festina lente’ approach, if this [freak]
show must go on for much longer. Prof. Devos also called for a Christmas truce, not unlike the truce
during the trench wars in WW I, to give the politicians a breather, gather momentum and start afresh
after New Year. He is of course wise enough to admit that this isn’t a guarantee to succeed after half a
year of failure and missed opportunities, but he is not wrong to say politicians are people too and hence
need just as much a breather now and then as us Regular Joes and Janes in order to continue.

Yes, in many cases this has been a year of records here in Belgium. The biggest victory ever for a
nationalist party, the longest governmental negotiations (another one for the Guinness Book), the
longest acting resigning government, the longest snow period at the end of the year, the most catholic
priests being officially accused of pedophilia and the biggest resulting load of cases against them being
blundered into legal purgatory by the courts… And all the while, I’m growing more and more pessimistic
about the chances of survival of this disjointed nation. Negotiations have become a staring contest
where neither party wants to be the first to blink and if they do they will cry havoc, leave the negotiating
table for good and we’ll be faced with another round of elections come early 2011, the result of which
will be more of the same, but even more stagnant. Federal politics in Belgium have as much leg room as
Al Capone in his cement shoes on the riverbed the Mafia dumped him into.

And to leave you with something non governmental, but every bit as cynical : at the start of this week, I
watched the president of Citibank Belgium defend the bank’s announcement they would only cater their
full services to clients with a minimum of 250.000 Euros on their accounts. Everyone else would just get
the absolute basics. He didn’t see what the fuss was all about, after all “People who can afford it fly first
class, and this is just as acceptable”. Of course it is, if you conveniently forget it was people with much
less than that who bailed those mofos out with their hard earned tax money when they put just about
the entire world into economic crisis. The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades…

I’ll try to set aside my cynicism for a second and wish my good friend P and all you readers of his most
excellent blog good holidays. See you on the other side of 2010.

Dr. ARF

WikiLeaks Slovenia: Someone Never Learned To Read

Horror! Shame! Ignominy!… no, seriously, it’s that funny..

“‘What can Slovenia do to secure a meeting between Prime Minister Pahor and President Obama”‘ asked foreign minister Samuel Žbogar, exposes WikiLeaks
Slovenia is again a topic in the exposed secret US diplomatic documents and again the issue is the desire of Slovene PM Borut Pahor to meet US President Barack Obama
According to German Spiegel, foreign minister Samuel Žbogar was inquiring with US representatives as to what conditions must be met to make such a meeting hapen.”

Hillary: “Eeer, Samuel? You remeber those meetings? There’s something you should know…” (source)

This, more or less is the lead of today’s article on RTVSLO (state radio and television) website. This comes only a day after PM Borut Pahor called a press conference and denied allegations of horse-trading with the Americans, basically saying that a) yes, he’d like to meed Obama, b) would be glad to take in a Gitmo detainee regardless and c) he never linked anything to anything else, regardless of what the cable says and when (somewhat predictably, since it’s their document which is causing all this embarrassment) the new US Ambassador to Slovenia Joseph Mussomeli issued a written statement saying basically the same thing, adding that PM Pahor is an honest and honourable man. Someone’s lying.

Or, better yet, someone can’t really read. My money’s on the latter. The infamous Spiegel article has been around for at least 72 hours. Pengovsky was first alerted to it by alcessa. I linked to it again yesterday. It was then linked to again by Žiga Turk (a prominent member of opposition SDS). In short, this shit is old by internet standards.

Even more important, this is part of the same story. Half-wits at RTVSLO – well, their web section at least – for reasons that are known only to them infer that there was a second cable (Slovenia is again a topic… and the issue again is…) which in addition to PM Pahor implicated FM Žbogar as well.

However, there is no “again” here. Not yet, anyhow. Der Spiegel, NY Times, El Pais and Guardian all worked with the same set of documents (the entire 250k+ batch) and they all saw it fit to expose Slovenia-US horse-trading. And save the sole cable posted yesterday by El Pais, none of the cables pertaining to Slovenia have been released by WikiLeaks yet. None. Zero.

Indeed it is still a mystery as to how exactly could they have arrived at such different conclusions: NYT reports US pressured Slovenia. No names are mentioned. El Pais reports Slovenia pressured the US and names PM Pahor and making no mention of FM Žbogar. And Der Spiegel reports Slovenia was horse-trading with the US but mentions Žbogar, omitting Pahor completely. But they all published their pieces on the same day, 29 November 2010 (three days ago), while the general public, which in this case includes Slovene media has yet to see anything more than a single cable from US Embassy Ljubljana. I know I’m repeating myself, but I can not stress this point enough.

To put it in the words of Al Pacino: We’re in the dark here!

Point being, web section of RTVSLO is either making things up or really has a problem reading and/or googling.

(again, many thanks to alcessa for the heads-up)

WikiLeaks Slovenia: Make Me An Offer I Can’t Refuse

Diplomatic incontinence strikes Slovenia too. Once again this sorry excuse for a country is front-and-centre on the international stage, courtesy of Julian Assange and his Wikileaks. OK, so we’re still just a comical sidekick, but there you go. Slovenia was put forward as prime example of US diplomacy bullying other countries into doing what Washington wanted. The story made the timing of my yesterday’s letter to PM Borut Pahor a bit unfortunate, as a plethora of issues was overshadowed by Cablegate – The Slovenian Edition. Well, there’s little use crying over spilled milk.. eerr… cables.

Obama: “Yo B., wassup?!” Pahor: “Make me an offer I can’t refuse” (source)

So, what’s the story (morning glory)? The esteemed New York Times (one of only a handful of media to have been granted advance access to 250k+ US State Department cables) reported that Slovenia was pressured by the current US administration to take in at least one Gitmo prisoner and that Slovenian leadership could look forward to some quality time with Barack Obama in return. The story was picked up by The Beeb and (naturally) every Slovene media. Big bad America picking on someone not even a tenth of it’s size. Not nice.

But then came the twist. Spanish El Pais, another paper with advance access to Cablegate material, posted the “problematic” cable (one of about 900 pertaining to Slovenia). Assuming that he cable is genuine, it was Slovenian PM Borut Pahor who floated the idea of Slovenia accepting a prisoner from Guantanamo in exchange for 20 minutes with President Obama.

And then, another twist. According to Der Spiegel, it was actually foreign minister Samuel Žbogar who was asking around what would the US give in return if Slovenia were to take over a Gitmo detainee. (link kindly provided by alcessa)

Wait. What!?

Yeah, I know. Embarrassing, to say the least. Naturally, all hell broke loose. Spineless begging. Sellout. Corruption. Ass-kissing. Those were prevailing reactions in Slovenia yesterday. However, there’s more to this than meets the eye. We’ll deal with differing versions of the story a bit later on, but for the sake of the argument let’s assume that the cable as published by El Pais is genuine.

The said cable was sent from US Embassy in Ljubljana on 5 January 2010 and detailed a visit by PM Pahor to the embassy on 30 December 2009, where he was hosted by Charge d’Affairs Bradley Freden, at the time the top-ranking US diplomat to Slovenia. The cable summarised the meeting (requested by Pahor) as follows:

CDA [charge d’affairs] and Pahor discussed political and economic priorities for 2010, including the relocation of Guantanamo detainees, stability and integration of the Western Balkans into the EU and NATO, and Westinghouse involvement in the planned second nuclear plant at Krsko.

At this point it should be noted that this was apparently the second such visit Pahor made to the US embassy which (obviously) did not go unnoticed by Freden and was interpreted as “the U.S.-Slovenian relationship [being] one he [Pahor] seeks to cultivate.“.

I won’t bother you with the actual cable, as you can read it here. Let us focus on analysis instead.

Borut Pahor goes shopping

In pengovsky’s opinion this cable shows (if anything) that Prime Minister Pahor, rather than spinelessly licking American ass, actually knows how to play the foreign policy game. Bear in mind that the meeting took place a little less than two months after Slovenia and Croatia signed the Arbitration Agreement on the border dispute, where apparently it was the US who manhandled Croatia into signing the paper which was decried as “high treason” on both sides of the border. Also bear in mind that Slovenia was in 2004 indeed bullied into the “Coalition of the Willing” by the Bush administration just prior to the illegal invasion of Iraq and there was plenty of (needless) embarrassment over a leaked Slovenian cable from Washington on how to handle the imminent declaration of independence of Kosovo. In short, Slovenia-US relations have not been entirely rosy, courtesy of both sides, and PM Pahor saw it fit to keep the current good streak going.

So what Pahor did, apart from going above and beyond the call of duty to show how important the US is (by visiting the embassy in person rather than having the charge d’affairs – then the top ranking US diplomat – come to see Pahor), was actually outlining how he saw US interests in Slovenia and the region. Broadly, these interests include security in the Balkans, a Westinghouse investment into Krško nuclear power plant and relocation of Guantanamo prisoners.

But things don’t just happen by themselves. To make these the above possible, Slovenia obviously wanted something in return. And rather than saying outright what Slovenia wanted, Pahor basically said: “Make me an offer I can’t refuse“. He was, in fact, shopping. With some strings attached. Case in point being Gitmo prisoner(s) where Pahor made it plain that his government was willing to consider the relocation “as long as ‘political’ and ‘financial’ obligations were considered separately“. Translation: show me the money.

The main problem, according to Slovene media was the fact that “PM gently – but unambiguously – linked success on detainee resettlement to a meeting with President Obama. He said that “a 20-minute meeting” with POTUS would allow him to frame the detainee question as an act of support for Slovenia’s most important ally and evidence of a newly-reinvigorated bilateral relationship.”

Shit. Fan. Aim. Fire

This is where the shit hit the fan. Outrage was almost unanimous, especially in the media. One of my favourites was the conclusion that for the PM and – by extension – his government “a life of a (possibly illegaly) detained Arab prisoner is worth 20 minutes with Barack Obama” (Delo, yesterday, in Slovene only)

It was as if everyone was oblivious to the fact that the cable says in no unclear terms that Pahor linked Gitmo and meeting with Obama “in a one-on-one pull-aside with CDA“. In other words, he did this after the meeting, unofficially. This was neither his not his government’s official position. He floated an idea. Hinted. Tested the waters, if you will. But he never made it a precondition.

Did Pahor make a mistake?

Yes and no. Foreign policy is a dirty business (and yes, someone’s got to do it). Most of it is trade, tit-for-tat. Taking in Gitmo prisoners is not peanuts. Not just because there is no legal grounds for Slovenia to do it (a law would have to be passed to do it), but also because a) it is a security risk and b) means a country (in this case Slovenia) is really going above and beyond the call of duty to help the US solve a human-rights disaster of their own making.

So Pahor felt he could play the table a bit against the Americans. Maybe he miscalculated. But the point is that he was trading. The trade, however, was not just “Gitmo prisoner for quality time with Obama”, but rather “Westinghouse deal, help in the Balkans and Gitmo prisoner in return for more US investments into Slovenia, (officially) recognising Slovenia as an important player in the Balkans, some plain old cash plus 20 minutes with the Big. O (the last one would help, but is optional).

However, the problem with these 20 minutes of Obama’s time is not that the idea had been floated, but how it was floated. As @DC43 said on Twitter, the other day, this is not something a PM does personally, but has someone from his cabinet talk to someone from the embassy. That way neither side loses face in case the idea is nixed, plus the whole thing is absolutely deniable in case of a leak such as this one.

More mistakes

The mistake Pahor did – and subsequent damage control he and foreign minister Žbogar are engaging in today – is more of an embarrassment than anything else. On the other hand the media, both Slovenian and international, made some serious errors.

As already noted, Slovene media were over the “Gitmo-for-time-with-Obama” thing faster than you can say WikiLeaks. But only 24 hours earlier, they were all over the “US-is-blackmailing-Slovenia” story with virtually the same gusto. While right now no-one disputes authenticity of the cable as published by El Pais, we have yet to see anyone retract their statements about “big bad US diplomacy treating everyone else like shit”. Right now it is as if the original version of the story (published by NY Times) never happened.

Three newspapers with advance access to 250k+ cables. All three of them saw it fit to point out a specific Slovenia-US cable. And every one of them came up with a significantly different interpretation of the cable. How is this possible? The cable is about as unambiguous as they come. This is what makes it interesting. And yet we have three totally different stories. Are interpretations of other cables subject to this “variation” as well? And – last but not least – are most of the cables so uninteresting that a relatively unproblematic Slovenia with its globally unimportant issues is the best they can do?

If any of the above is the case, are we to take Cablegate seriously in the first place?