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Copycat

Tommorrow is Statehood Day. The day when we remember our glorious history, give historic speeches and speak with a gaze fixed somewhere in the undefined future. Perhaps with a tear or two glittering in our eyes. It is also one of those rare occasions when we actually listen to our elected leaders, because they may have something important to say. But historic speeches are a bitch. You can’t really write a speech with an aim of making it historical. One can be aware of the historic moment, but still fail to give a speech fitting the occasion. Usually, high ranking politicians employs speech writers, Bill Clinton and JFK come to mind. Quite rarely, politicians are great orators and can write and give a speech, fitting the occasion by themselves. Winston Churchill and Milan Kučan come to mind.

However, there seems to be a shortcut. You can copy from a historic speech and hope noone will notice. Apparently (and I emphasise the word apparently) Slovene PM Janez Janša did that two years ago, when he gave a speech on 15 years of Slovene independence on June 24 2006. According to several Slovene media, Janša more or less copied entire passages of a speech given by no other than Tony Blair when Labour finally won general elections in the UK in 1997.

So, Tony, how about a copy of your vicotry speech? (source)

Slovene media cited these passages, Blair’s in English and Janša’s in Slovene. However, there’s also an English translation of Janša’s 2006 speech. Let’s take a look:

Tony Blair	Janez Janša
We can never be the biggest. We may never again be the mightiest. But we can be the best. The best place to live. The best place to bring up the children, the best place to lead fulfilled life, the best place to grow old	We will never be the biggest. We will never be the strongest. But we can be the best. We can create the best environment for a fulfilling life. The best environment for the safe and sound growth of our children. The best place for happiness.
Today I want to set an ambitious course for this country. To be nothing less than the model 21st century nation, a beacon to the world. It means drawing deep into the richness of the British character. Creative. Compassionate. Outward-looking. Old British values, but a new British confidence.	Today, more than at any time before, we can set ourselves high aspirations for the future. We seek to become nothing less than one of the most successful countries in the world, one of the beacons of the 21st century. To achieve our aim we will make use of the best that is in our national character; even if in the past this was buried somewhere deep. Creativity. Diligence. Entrepreneurship. Dedication. Justice. Openness. Tolerance. Honesty. Solidarity. Traditional Slovenian values. New Slovenian self-confidence.

Admittedly, both speeches are a lot longer than just those two passages, but Janša’s speech was remembered for precisely those two phrases. The one about “Slovenia becoming a beacon of the 21st century” was especially resounding. And now it turns out that it is not as original as we thought.

PM Janša already denied the allegations, saying that ~~former Checz president Vaclav Havel~~ the first Czech president Jan Masaryk used many of these phrases countless times. That may be, but it is still not the same as making it up on your own. And that’s what we were lead to believe.

Awkward, to say the least.

Final Tally

So, the final results are in. Turnout was just below 11 percent and all but two regions were supported. Janez Janša declared victory (surprise, surprise) and when pressed over the low turnout predictably said that everyone had a chance to vote and if they didn’t, well… tough luck.

Janša being rather pleased with himself: I once caught a fish this big…

Also as predicted, Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković claimed responcibilty for the extremely low turnout in Ljubljana. I mean, he might have played a part in it, but since turnout wasn’t exactly brilliant in the rest of the country, Ljubljanchans we probably just as beffudled by the whole idea behind the referendum, or – maybe even more so – just couldn’t be bothered to vote.

In the end, the referendum result gives Janša some much needed pre-election ammo. He announced that his government will propose regional legislation again, and will do it toot-sweet. The motion is doomed to fail as he will never get a 2/3 majority in the parliament (coalition only has 49 out of 90 seats), and this will enable Janša to play the referendum angle more or
less forever, possibly even after the elections and regardless of whether he looses or wins. And that was probaby his plan all along.

Less Than 10 Percent Turnout

8.66 %. That’s the official turnout on today’s referendum on regions according to the State Electoral Commission at the time of publishing this post. The polling stations had closed minutes ago, and it means that a little more than 145.000 people out of 1,6 million eligible had voted. Analyses and projections will be forthcoming in the next couple of hours and day. PM Janša is due to give a statement at 2100hrs, while Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković (the one who called for a boycott) will give a statement minutes from now.

As predicted, a battle for interpretation will start. PM Janša is scheduled to give a statement at 2100 by which time all the votes will probably have been counted. The extremely low turnout (lowest of any referendums held in Slovenia, where referendums are not attended in huge numbers anyhow) suggest that those who voted, did so in favour of regions.

Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković will give a statement minutes from now. As you may recall, he called for a boycott of the referendum. It will be interesting to see if he will be tempted to interpret turnout in Ljubljana (only 5.5%) as a massive following of his advice. The reality namely is that we had a criminally nice and warm Sunday probably payed a part in the fact that less than 6% of voters cast their vote in Ljubljana (the lowest turnout in the country). But the main factor dirivng the voters abstinence is probably the fact that the voters didn’t care a pair of fetid dingo’s kindeys about a muddled referendum question and a severe lack of a referendum campaign. To elucidate with a refference to specifics: While casting his vote, pengovsky was actually asked by a member of the on-site electoral commission what this referendum was actually about. Go figure.

Stay tuned, more info after 2200 hrs.

On Referendum

The timing of yesterday’s post was fitting to say the least as Slovenes will vote on a referendum on regions on Sunday. The logic of this particular referendum (or rather: the lack it) have been detailed here, here and especially here. But just to give you a slightly better picture of what had happened: The government was hell-bent on holding this referendum, because initially regional legislation failed to get parliamentary approval (tough luck – the legislation requires 2/3 majority and the coalition is nowhere near that number) and it desperately needs at least one major political scoop.

Mayor Janković calls for a boycott. Pengovsky diagrees (source)

But instead of giving a clear-cut question such as “are you in favour of creating (insert number) regions named (insert region names), each encompasing the following municipalities (insert municipalities) respectively“, the government opted to arbitrarily create some 13 “referendum areas” (which are to become regions), each with a different question concerning that particular region and nothing else.

So what we will be faced with on Sunday, will be a combination of 13 distinct referendum questions (plus two questions on region names) and – consequently – a zillion ways to twist and turn the results according to the government’s needs. But before we go there, let’s have a look at referendums in Slovenia

Mechanics of a referendum

The referendum is of a consultative nature, meaning that the result will have little or no legal cosequences. It would, however, be a political guideline for decisions pertaining the formation of regions. There is no census on the turnout, so technically, three people can vote and if two of them vote the same way, the referendum is passed. In Slovenia truth is often stranger than fiction and so it often happened that a very small number of people came to vote (traditonally, referendum turnout was about 30%), and so a mere 15% of the voters (the majority of the atendees) decided the referendum result. And finally, the result is calculated as a percentage of all valid votes, rendering the option of casting a blank ballot irrelevant, as a blank ballot will not be counted as a valid vote. This is an important deviation from the electoral legislation, where every ballot is counted, even those that are invalid, meaning that in elections you can cast an empty ballot and it will count in the 100% of the vote cast.

To give you an example, imagine a scenario with 100 voters, which vote both on a referendum and in elections. In both cases you only have to options (A and B) and 40 voters support option A, 30 support option B, while 30 cast an empty or otherwise invalid ballot. In an election, where all 100 votes cast count, the result would be 40% for option A and 30% for option B. In a referendum, however, option A would have received 57,15 % of the vote, and option B 42,85 % as only 70 votes would have counted.

Legitimacy of a referendum

Now, despite all the shortcomings, such a referenum is perfectly legal and legitimate. The question was asked and the people will vote. Or won’t. Those who will choose not to will have willingly put their fate in the hands of others. Which is not something you really want to do in a democracy, so attending a referendum (or any other vote, for that matter) is crucial if you want your policital actions and convictions to have at least some sort of effect on the way your country is ran.

When mathematics is in play I’m not the fastest of cats at the best of times (as proven on this blog on a number of occasions), but even I realise that under such rules of the game your decision not to vote means that you’ve actually cast two votes supporting the option you would not have supported anyhow.

Take our options A and B. You seriously don’t like option B, but couldn’t give a pair of fetid dingo’s kindeys about option A (or – as is mostly the case – you are convinced your vote doesn’t matter). Now: by not voting at all, you’ve not only substracted one vote from the total number of valid votes, but have also increased the number of votes for option B relative to the total number of votes

Reffering back to our example of a hundred votes (and a projected 30 percent turnout), this means that out of a hundred voters only 30 cast their vote. Say 12 of those support option A and 18 support option B. In this case option B (the one you really don’t like) gets 60 % of the vote, whereas option A loses with 40%. Just because you couldn’t be bothered to cast your vote.

Informed decisions

In comments to yesterday’s post Alex maintained that “referendums are never legitimate since people elect their representatives to make informed decisions on their behalf.”

This statement implies two notions which are in my opinion radically wrong. 1) If our elected leaders were to make informed decisions, the voters would have to make informed decision about electing their representatives. Since today’s democracy is based on soundbites, good looks populism and occasional wit, informed decisions are few and far between and even if they exist, they are subject to media interpretation and even manipulation. And 2) this statement implies that our elected representatives are an informed bunch of highly intelligent people who constantly ponder the big picture and the future of the country, even at their personal peril. Right…

Referendums are no more and no less legitimate than any decision by the parliament or other representative body. In either case the decision must be both respected and subject to the mechanism of checks and balances.

This Sunday

Now, how does all of this translate to Slovenia? As noted in the begining, the government of Janez Janša has done pretty much everything to muddle the referendum. 13 distinct question (and two more) allow for no less than four hundred and fifty different combinations of results, according to the head of State Electoral Commission. Naturally, this was done intentionally and it shows that the government is far from certain of getting an overall positive result.

Sunday’s referendum is a slightly expensive introduction into an extremely bloody election campaign. How can I tell? By the fact that to date there has been no “referendum campaign”. Coalition parties – the very same which have called the referendum – have not posted a single banner, not a single second of airwaves was saturated with ads opposing or supporting the referendum question – nothing. Period. The fun will begin after the votes are in, as the battle for result interpretation will begin. Depending on the result, the government will either claim that the referendum was a success because a) most voters per region supported it, b) most voters nation-wide supported it or c) the referendum succeeded in enough regions to make it impossible to draw regions any other way. The opposition will naturally claim exactly the opposite.

Me? I will vote “no”. I think the only fair way to do it would be to ask every one about every region. Do I get a say on whether Primorska should be a single region or not? Should Koroška exist and is Central Slovenia a region or should it be split into Gorenjska and Dolenjska? I think I ought to have a say about it, because it does concern me. Not only from taxpayer’s point of view (where have my euros gone to?) but also because regions totaly redefine a way different levels of government communicate with citizens and because the government is putting yet another layer of authority between itself and the citizens. And finally, because I hate the fact that the one of the main aims of regions is creating refuges for politicians whose due-date is long past or (even worse) who shouldn’t ever have set foot in politics in the first place.

As odd as it may seem, PM Janez Janša and pengovsky agree on one thing. It is vital to get out the vote. Naturally we’re doing it for different reasons, but if the referendum itself is wrong, Ljubljana mayor Zoran Janković is even more wrong. He called for a boycott of the referendum, calling it a farce. Yes, it is a farce, and it will be held in three days. And if we all just sit on our asses and do nothing, the farce will become a reality (even more than it already is) and those who will remain at home will have no right to bitch about it afterwards.

If you’re eligible and either support regions or oppose them – get out there and vote on Sunday.

The Luck Of The Irish

Despite being cautiously pro-European (mostly for geopolitical reasons, but that the way things are), I must say I’m kind of glad the Irish voted against the Lisbon treaty. The European Union has around half a billion citizens, and yet a mere 800.000 votes brought the Lisbon treaty to a grinding halt. And while one may argue that this is a case of a minority imposing its will on the majority, I think it atcually shows that democracy in the EU – for all its failings – is alive and well.

Ireland votes NO (source)

Think about it. The way things stand now, the EU is still nothing more than a association of nation states (although a very closely bound one). Member states have not relinquished ~~its~~ their sovereignity, but have opted to excercise it via a common political entity which goes by the name of the EU. However, this does not – should not – preclude the right of every member state to excercise its sovereignity in full as it sees fit. And if the Irish constitution calls for a referendum of any and all matters of international association, then so be it.

Furthermore, the initial statemets of a number of European politicians – including the man who happens to be my prime minister – show that Irish “no” was a much needed reality-check which hopefully burst the bubble of “planned democracy” the EU and indeed most member states are infested with. It is one thing to know the result of a political proces in advance due to predictability of political players and factors, it is however quite another to devise ways and means which only keep the illusion of the decision-making process as being democratic, where in reality there is only one “acceptable” decision.

Most European leaders, shocked by the fact that the Celtic Tiger gave them the finger, said that “they expect the ratification process to go forward“. Janez Janša (presiding over the EU for 14 more days and counting) even said that the Irish Taoiseach Brian Cowen will “explain the reasons for this outcome“.

Waddafuckyoumean go forward and will explain??? As far as I know the Irish government stated beforehand that there will be no re-run on the referendum, so the “no” is final. There’s nothing to go forward to and nothing to explain. Secondly: True, none of them forgot to add that the democratic decisions must be respected, but… There shouldn’t be any “buts” here. Are EU leaders trying to say that there are referendums that count and referendums that don’t? When France and The Netherladns rejected the European Constitution, everybody went “That’s it! Game over!” and now when Ireland said no, they’re trying to pretend it didn’t happen?

I realize that a lot of work has been put into the Lisbon treaty and I’m convinced that it is a good treaty and that it would benefit both the EU and member states including Ireland. It would also allow expansion of EU to include Balkan states and finally Turkey (both of which are a must). There are, however, no shortcuts. If this treaty went down badly in Ireland, imagine what the result of such a referendum would be in France or the UK, or any other “old” member state, whose people have long ago fallen out of love with the EU. Even worse, imagine that the Irish are somehow coerced into ratifying the treaty, which is followed by quick accession of Balkan states into the EU in the next ten years. How on Earth will you explain to the people that Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina must become members if you can’t even properly explain why a simple treaty is a good thing?

The rejection of the Lisbon treaty by Ireland is the best thing that could have happened to the EU at this moment. Not because it slowed the process of enlargment (that’s bad), but because it showed that a lot must be done on the home front as well. Perhaps starting to rebuild trust between the citizens of existing member states and their elected officials might be a good way to go about it. Once that is achieved, a lot more faith will be put into politicians’ abilities to tackle “big issues” as well.

Slovenia once was a member of a multinational super-state. As time progressed it was coerced more and more into decisions it didn’t want to take. And then one day it walked out. Perhaps unbeknownst to them, the EU leaders are making the very same mistake Yugoslav leaders did some 25+ years ago. Back then noone really believed that anyone would leave the federation. And today noone really belives anyone will leave the Union. History, however, has a nasty tendency to repeat itself at the hands of those who forget it.

Election Day / Long Hot Summer

The Prez yesterday signed an order declaring parliamentary elections are to be held on Sunday, September 21st. While the date is not all that suprising – elections must be held no earlier than 60 days before the end of the four-year-term of the Parliament and no later than fifteen days before – it is the last possible date for elections due to the fact that post-election procedures must be completed before the current parliament’s term ends on October 23rd. ~~after – it is a slight deviation from the usual interval od early October to mid-November. In 2004 elections were held on October 3rd, four years before on October 15th.~~

Contrary to the deleted text it turned out this morning that the September date is the normal order of things, since every election cycle the elections were held some 10-12 days prior to the previous election date, with the sole aim of the new Parliament convening before the previous Parliament’s term ends, thus insuring a smooth transition from one parliament to the other without any constitutional hickups such as a non-existing parliament. As a result, this year’s elections are being held in summer already.

This is how it looked like:

The efects of having 21 september as Election Day are many. For starters, it means that what is promising to be a heated, bloody and viscious campaing with a lot punches below the belt will be over by the time the sun is still high up in the sky and that the proverbial “Hot Political Autumn” (a classic of Slovene journailsm) will actually be a Long Hot Summer, as the campaign will officialy start on August 21st, just at people will slowly start returning from the holidays and start worrying about getting their kids all the school gear necesary and will end on the last day of summer.

Secondly, moving up the election schedule means that the government will have a little less time to bask in the glory of the EU presidency, which admittedly turned sour late in the game on the account of the Irish no (a post on this was scheduled for today, but is rescheduled for tommorow). Alternatively, if things went really bad for the government – a bursting real-estate bubble, increasing oil prices, incompetent ministers, – having elections a week or two earlier might be a good thing, as it will considerably shorten the time-frame avaliable to the opposition for attakcing the government.

And thirdly, Borut Pahor will have a nice natural tan he’ll be working on entire summer.

So, there you have it. The date is set, the clock is ticking (on this blog as well, see the sidebar) and the intricacies of Slovene electoral system will be exlpained in one of the upcoming posts.

And finallly, a couple of matching videos: Long Hot Summer starring Paul Newman and Election Day by Arcadia

EDIT: It turns out that I’m not the only one who cannot the grip of electoral date mathematics 😀 Todays’s Dnevnik ran a story whose title reads “85 days till elections“. As you can see on your left, elections are due in ninety-six days 😉

Janez Škof On Slovenia

Janez Škof is an exceptional Slovenian actor who can say a thing or two about Slovenes and this nation’s proverbial small-mindedness and self-importance. But there are ways to go about it and then there are ways to go about it, if you catch my meaning. Janez Škof captured this in an intro to a song about “human fish”, which was gold at first and – according to the song – only became after it bit half an arse off a young beauty. But this is Slovenia, and in Slovenia some things are more important than others 🙂 Enyoj – I hope the lyrics are audiable.

Ladies and germanies! Welcome to Slovenia! Slovenia is very, very, very, very… small country. But there are very very very very high mountayns! Very white in the wintertime, with a lot of highland anim-als, who… which are making stinking of them! Yes!

But this is not most important! Maybe it is most important that in Slovenia we has also very big and very.. dark… woods. Very geen woods…. Sherwoods with a lot of lubadars inside… and a specially kind of Slovenian borelian klop..

But it is nots most important!!! Maybe it is most important than in Slovenia we has also the coast! Yes! We have our own part of the coast, which is… ummmm…. ummmm… attaching to our sea. Because our sea is Adriatic Slovenian sea. It is through Croatiaian directily connected to the biggest oceans in the world! Yeees!

But it is not the most important. Maybe it is most important that everywhere, everywhere in Slovenia you can find little holes… And if you find the hole you have to start to dig. And if you dig, dig, dig, dig, dig enough, you come to bigger hole. And if you dig, dig, dig, dig again, you come to the biggest hall… Jamagrotecave… Very dark inside. Very spooky.

There is the lake, there is some very natural Slovenian spring water. And it that springy Slovenian natur-el water, without any bubbles. There is really one very special anim-al. And she is da fish. But she is not a normal fish. Because she is da human fish. And this is da story about how human fish become human fish…

I added the transcription, because Disablez and venerea pointed out that a lot of the lyrics are muffled. Just some pointers: “Lubadar” is “mountain pine beetle”, “klop” is a “tick” and Jamagrotecave is a local joke about Postojnska jama (Postojna cave), where every road sign said “Jama – Grotte – Cave”, and when kids read the road signs, everyone naturally said “jamagrotecave”