Remember how pengovsky told you that the Tanja Bobnar fecal Hiroshima will come back to haunt PM Robert Golob? Well, guess what. After fucking around quite a bit, he is now entering the finding out phase. On Tuesday the cops formally filed criminal corruption charges against the Big Bird. Yay?
Before does their best surprised Pikachu face, pengovsky should note the following. Criminal charges against a sitting PM are almost like a rite of passage in this day and age. A quick Google search shows that over the last 20 years, just about every prime minister (and there were quite a few) earned themselves charges being filed against them. In some cases, more than once.
Still, this particular clusterfuck is not something Golob can simply wave away. Not anymore, that is. Pengovsky wrote about the whole shitshow in more or less vivid detail. But the gist of it is that neither Bobnar nor Golob understood that being a politician means playing by a different set of rules when it comes to appointing senior officials. Like the Chief of Police, to give an example at random.
A political hit-job, surely
Be that as it may, the charges are now filed and it is up to the prosecution to see what to do about them. They can either formally indict the Apex Aviary, request a judiciary investigation, or drop the charges. And seeing how according to news reports, the entire investigation was run under the direction of the Specialised Prosecutor’s Office, the latter scenario seems unlikely.
Which is probably why PM Golob went apeshit yesterday and called the whole thing a political hit-job. As politicians in such cases are want to do, he swore up and down that he has corroborative evidence and witnesses and that he will surely be cleared by the legal process.
Just how much of a legal exposure Golob faces right now is an open question. On one hand, there are cases of PMs and politicians in general who are on court so often they get a cafeteria discount (see Janša, Janez). And yet, they are still very much viable politically.
Coalition partners running for the hills
On the other hand, left-liberal politicians seem to be much more vulnerable to criminal charges than their right-wing counterparts. Sure, they are exceptions (see Janković, Zoran). But in general, alleged criminal behaviour tends to do more damage to the credibility of top-of-the-line left-wing politicos.
Whether that implies that left-liberal voters have a lower threshold for acceptable corruption than right-wing voters is debatable. Pengovsky is in no way implying that is the case, but either reader may come to their own conclusion.
What is beyond any doubt, however, is that Golob’s coalition partners have taken to the hills. Levica did manage to send Luka Mesec out to face the cameras and produce a boilerplate “let’s wait and see” comment. SD, on the other hand, seems to be rather enjoying the moment.
SD sitting by the river, waiting for the bodies to float by
The Social Democrats are keenly aware that in politics – failing all else – you can always sit by the river long enough to see your opponent’s body float by. Which is what is happening right now.
Robert Golob pulled no punches when he was politicking to undermine the Eastern Faction of the SD during the Litijska Affair. But eventually the said faction came out on top. And while party boss Matjaž Han and his gang probably do not have the clout to actively undermine PM Golob, they will do fuck all to help him.
SD managed a mere press release about how they are “monitoring the situation and that the party will internally debate the important questions the situation raises.” A full-throated support, this is not. Sometimes not lifting a finger is as damaging as actively knocking things over.
More importantly, we again see how in the left-liberal sphere of Muddy Hollows politics opportunity always trumps loyalty. It’s just the way things are.
SDS enjoying Golob’s panicky flapping about
As far as the opposition is concerned, they’re relatively quiet. The SDS have been clammoring for early elections for some time now and they see this whole goatfuckfest as further proof of their point.
That said, they will do little to hasten the situation as Golob’s somewhat panicky flapping about suits them just fine. As long as the PM has to deal with his own shit, he and his government will see their already meagre progress on various policy fronts bogged down even further. And regardless of what Janša’s party might be saying publicly, they’re still in the planning stages of an elections campaign.
Most importantly, however, they realise that the Glorious Leader is a subject of a couple of criminal proceedings himself. H has has been found guilty in several cases. Which is why the Party is mostly focusing on Golob’s reactions rather than on the (non)merit of the criminal charges themselves.
Which brings us to the final question, one that the media landscape has been obsessing over during the last 36 hours. Will the charges stick?
Will it stick?
The sharpest legals minds in the country that were available for a quick comment were noticeably divided on the issue. Some say that charges of corruption in what is essentially a political appointment will be damn hard to prove. Others focus on the fact that the whole thing was done under the guidance of the Special Prosecutor and is therefore not just some frivolous criminal complaint.
The real answer is that it doesn’t really matter. Even if he is found guilty on a court of law, Golob is probably looking at a fine at worst. Maybe a suspended sentence if he really comes across as a dick. What matters most is the political damage this will cause.
When Alenka Bratušek botched her nomination to the European Commission, she was slapped with more or less the same set of charges as Golob is now facing. And while the charges against her were eventually dropped, the damage was such that she was lingering at the outskirts of the parliament for a decade. Until Golob and GS came along and took over her SAB party.
A week in politics …
So, rather than legal, the dilemmas facing the Big Bird right now are political. Will alleged corruption provide enough cover for junior coalition parties (especially SD) to bail on Golob prematurely, at least symbolically? Will this cause GS party discipline to break down and entice individual Gibanje Svoboda MPs to seek refuge in another party, existing or emerging (see Logar, Anže)? Or will Golob himself realise that he has had it with this shit and resign?
Pengovsky’s bet to these questions is: yes, maybe, no. This is all still early days and as always, a week in politics is a long time.