July, 2009 | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

Do You, Janez Janša…

… take Urška Bačovnik to be your lawful wedded wife, to have and to hold from this day forward, for better for worse, for richer for poorer, in sickness and in health, to love and to cherish, till death do you part?

He did.

(source: POP TV, 24ur.com)

Former PM and current leader of the opposition Janez Janša finally married doctor Urška Bačovnik ending years of speculation about when and if the marriage will take place. Urška made her first public appearance alongside then-PM in late 2006, just as pengovsky started blogging (in Slovene, mind you!) and she immediately became a sort-of-leitmotif of pengovsky.com.

Anyhoo – they got hitched last Saturday in a picturesque church in Drežnica, a small village above Kobarid in Primorska region. The fact that Janša’s SDS held its annual summer get-together in the valley below was only an added bonus, providing scores of well-wishers. And it cut down in transportation and reception costs, as gulash was alredy being served. But this should be a powerful reminder to the bride that she will always have to share her husband with his party. Apparently, as he came out of the church, his first words were “You gotta try this!”

While I’m sure many would like to try Doc Urška, JJ probably didn’t mean that. But is also slightly unclear whether he had already “tried that” years ago, contrary to media reports that this is the first marriage both for Urška and Janez. Namely, several books which deal with late 80’s in Slovenia claim implicitly that Janša was married to Silva Predalilč, with whom he has two children. Silva was with him when he had it real bad in 1988 and then just sort of dissapeared from the radar…

But that’s water under the bridge. Now they are married and without being cynical about it, pengovsky wishes the newly-weds a long and happy marriage.

There is, however, still a question which intrigues me: When Janez and Urška play doctor and nurses – who gets to be the nurse? 😮

Now Hear This

On Saturday pengovsky already hinted at the the curious incident which happened last Thursday during the weekly session of Borut Pahor’s government. Namely, the session was broadcasted (audio only) live over the internet, apparently inadvertently. At least that is what they say it happened.

Government in session. Live if necesary. (source)

The stream (Slovene only) was live for about 37 minutes and most of it was promptly recorded and posted on numerous Slovenian sites and for a moment it seemed as if all hell broke loose. Web portals competed in slapping the fattest title possible on their index page and reactions ranged from chuckles to sheer outrage.

And yet, the recording, whose primary protagonists were minister for public affairs Irma Pavlinič Krebs, interior minister Katarina Kresal, defence minister Ljubica Jelušič, justice minister Aleš Zalar and PM Borut Pahor, showed nothing more than that the goverment was acting according to its job description: debating and implementing policies. In this case a very touchy policy of cuts in employment in the civil service.

Minister Krebs was exasperated by the fact that the government missed every deadline and every target to cut employment in civil service by two percent. Truth be told, every government to date had that same goal and every single one of them spectacularly failed to meet it, endind its term with more people employed than it started with. But Krebs was adamant that something had to be done and it had to be done now, because at the moment this particular policy isn’t worth the paper it is written on. And where better to start than with the police and the army. They also fall into the category of “civil servants”, thanks to brilliantly misguided civil service wages reform executed by Krebs’ predecessor, Gregor Virant.

Naturally ministers Kresal and Jelušič went apeshit and a lengthy debate ensewed, primarily between Irma and Katarina, which was finally put to an end by PM Pahor. But – contrary to media reports this was not a cat-fight, nor was there a bitter argument or anything like that. It was simply a matter of bringing together different points of view. Granted, has this government truly functioned as a team, the differences and details would have been ironed out before hand. But as things stand, the government debated it and – as it happens – did not reach a decision yet. And did so in the most civil and respectful ways possible. The debate wasn’t even properly heated. Every media in-house coordination has more punch to it that this supposedly scandalous broadcast. In the end everybody looked good. Irma for trying desperately to cut down the number of civil servants, Katarina and Ljubica for sticking out fot their men, Aleš because he’d rather resign than see more people go, and – last but not least – Borut, who managed to bring it to the end despite everything.

So, maybe the whole thing was not really an accident but a carefully staged PR event, aimed at showing the government being serious about its job… Or it could have been something completely different.

Celebrating Independence By Beating Up Gays

As most of you know, pengovsky has, time and again warned against rise on neo-Nazism and its various offshots in Slovenia. Be it government pogrom against a Roma family, nationalistic marches on the border aimed at creating border incidents, nationalistic anti-Croatian rallies with a clear superiority agenda, boneheads trying to intimidate a round-table event on intolerance or a (called but cancelled) fascist rally in downtown Ljubljana, modus operandi which is usually associated with shitheads who think that Der Führer had a couple of nifty ideas, is becoming increasingly mainstream, while those same shitheads are becoming ever more self-confident.

Nationalists marching on the afternoon of June 25th and Mitja Blažič after the attack a couple of hours later (sources: Mladina.si and Narobe.si respectively)

The latest incident happened some ten days ago, and while it is not exactly news anymore, it deserves to be written about. Prior to Gay Pride Parade, which was held in Ljubljana on 27 June, a gay-and-lesbian literature night was organised in a bar in Prule, a nice, cozy and slightly bohemian area of Ljubljana. At about 2100 hrs on Thursday 25 June, a group of at least eight hooded and masked people stormed the place, armed with sticks, stones and torches. As he was just in front of the entrance at the time, journalist and gay activist Mitja Blažič took the brunt of the attack, being beaten and repeatedly kicked in the head. Afterwards the attackers tried to set the bar ablaze, causing Blažič some mild burns and – having failed to start a fire – threw stones into the bar’s windows.

The fact that the attack took place on June 25th, Slovenian Independence day makes it all the more appalling.

But then again… In hindsight this attack should not have been a surprise. Neo-Nazi sentiment is building in Slovenia. Slowly but surely. Most of its proponents probably don’t even recognise it as such, but rather think of themselves as patriots who want to protect the country and take it to a new level. The fact that they share that line of though with the second most famous Austrian (after Brüno) does not bother them.

And the fact that the fascist rally, which was cancelled on April 27th, did take place exactly on June 25th, only hours prior to the main celebration of the Day of Independence shows that neo-Nazi agenda is becoming dangerously wedded to the notion Slovenian statehood.

This year they marched by the Republic Square of their own accord. Unchecked, they will be leading the parade in a decade. By then it will be far too late to do anything about it. Luckily, it sometimes does help to have a left-wing government and an interior minister who is big on human rights. The police have proven that they can be remarkably efficient if needs be and have arrested three attackers within days. Apparently they are members of one of the football hooligan groups, where incidentally, where people with superiority issues seem to be especially thick on the ground.

It would be a most dangerous mistake to see this only as a series of unconnected incidents. What we are seeing here is at least a semi-concerted effort to restore neo-Nazi and other superiority ideology and make it a legitimate participant in a public debate. And they seem to be making headway as Hervardi one of these groups, even secured a weekly programme on Radio DUR, one of Ljubljana’s local radio stations.

Ivo Sanader vs. Borut Pahor

Well, sort of, anyway… The following happened more or less by accident yesterday on The Firm™, as pengovsky way lampooning resignation of Croatian PM Ivo Sanader as well some serious “leakage” from Slovene government. More on that in the following days, but suffice it to say, that Thursday’s session of the government was – apparently inadvertently – streamed live over the net, revealing some heavy discord between PM Borut Pahor, minister of public administration Irma Pavlinič Krebs and interior minister Katarina Kresal.

Audio is taken directly from Firm’s archives, while pengovsky spent most of the afternoon putting together the slideshow. Songs include To ni političen song by Vlado Kreslin and Parni Valjak and Maček v žaklju by Let 3. Both songs are Croatian covers of Slovenian songs and are therefore most fitting for the occasion. There’s also a little bit of Požar by Marko Brecelj at the end. For those of you who don’t understand Slovene and/or Croatian, a lot will be lost in translation, unfortunately. But you can still look at the pictures 🙂

Croatian PM Sanader Resigns

In a surprise move Croatian PM Ivo Sanader resigned yesterday, both as PM as well as president of the ruling HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union). News of his resignation started building up yesterday late in the morning and by noon it was certain that he is going to quit. He officially announced his resignation at 1400hrs, saying that he had played his part and that it was time someone else took over. There was a lot of speculation about Sanader running for Croatian president, but he denied the rumours, saying outright that he will not run for any office whatsoever. He will be, however, named honorary president of HDZ after its charter will be amended to that effect.

Ivo Sanader (source)

Despite everything he said, he did not actually explain why he is leaving politics, save that his “job is done. My political life ends now“. This naturally sparked furious guessing as to what exactly prompted him to resign (it seems that no one believes his claim that it took him a while to get there). Speculation spanned from corruption scandals which lately hit too close to Sanader for comfort, Croatian cooperation (or the lack of it) with the Hague Tribunal, dire economic situation in the country, or the stalemate in EU accession negotiations, which was prompted by Slovenia blocking the process due to border dispute. The last one seems plausible, as Sanader himself said that “he cannot deny that it played a part”.

However, there are other slightly more subtle signs pointing to what probably happened. A massive reshuffle took place at the senior level of HDZ, with a lot of new party vice-presidents being named. Furthermore, he proposed that minister for European integration and his second in command Jadranka Kosor take over both the government and the party. This seems to suggest that the initial drive for his resignation came from within the party rather than directly from outside influences.

Basically, we’re talking about a party putch.

It sounds reasonable to think that all of the above reasons played a role, but it seems that the breakdown of EU negotiations was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Namely – with the prospect of Croatian EU membership gone, all other problems suddenly seem much more bleak. It wasn’t that their economy wasn’t down the toilet for some time, but the almost-clinched membership in the Union created a hope (albeit probably a false one) that they will somehow be able to deal with it. The same of course goes for cooperation with the Hague as well as the border dispute with Slovenia – neither would have mattered a pair of fetid dingo’s kindeys if Croatia were an EU member.

But as things stand now, Croatia is faced with a south-bound economy and extremely poor projections for this year’s summer season, rampant corruption which can reach very high in the political and economic strata, an angry war-crimes tribunal and the prospect of joining Iceland and Hungary in the “broke countries club”. Which makes a lot of people wonder if Sanader didn’t just bail out and skedaddled, leaving to others to clean up his mess. This is also very plausible, but experience teaches that power is not easily relinquished. Doubly so in the Balkans. In other words, most politicians have to be carried out of their offices. Ivo Sanader is no exception. His troubles began some time ago, but he managed to control them, first by fast-tracking his country towards EU, and then by taking a hard line against Slovenia in the border dispute. But as Ljubljana obstinately refused to cave in, Sanader’s house of cards began falling appart and the situation in Croatia was suddently revealed for what it really is.

Thus, pengovsky thinks that Sanader just ran out of options and was forced to resign by his own people. The fact that will be made honorary chairman of the party only reinforces the feeling, as such “honours” are usually bestowed upon those whom you want to keep under control, without them doing any serious damage. But removing Sanader of course does not mean that things will improve by themselves. If anything, Croatian EU bid is now definitely stalled and barring a major breakthrough (such as Croatia ratifying the 2001 Drnovšek-Račan treaty on border) this train is not going anywhere anytime soon. They may even have to wait for Serbia.

Balkan Tricks Like At Home, Only Worse

Common sense dictates that revisiting European elections and their result is a complete waste of perfectly good blogging space. Had all things been equal, that would be so, However, in the words of Mr. Spock, things are not equal. But more on that in a minute.

(source)

Usually, European elections are frowned upon as being only tangentially connected to Slovenian politics (or to politics of any EU member, for that matter), and material evidence seems to support that theory: five years ago, Nova Slovenia (NSi) won despite its marginal standing in parliamentary elections. Results of June 5 elections seem to corroborate this, as NSi got one MEP despite being axed from the national parliament in 2008 elections. Furthermore, both in 2004 and 2009 the turnout was appalingly low, only 28 percent. But if need be, European election can be a bloodbath, which is something Gregor Golobič and his Zares can tell you a lot about.

But first thing’s first – let’s look at the results. Opposition SDS won 26.65 percent of the vote, ruling Social Democrats got 18.45 percent, while Nova Slovenija (NSi) got only slightly less, 16.53 percent. LDS came in fourth with 11.5 percent, while Zares was the last of the parties to get an MEP, with 9.77 percent of the vote. However, in terms of numer of MEP seats won, differences between parties become much less apparent. Both SDS and SD won two seats, while NSI, LDS and Zares won one seat each.

So, the question is, who the hell won? The general media consesus seems to be that SDS scored an overwhelming victory. Given the fact that they beat the largest coalition party and their rivals in public opinion polls by more than eight percent, this certainly seems to be the case. The fact that SD got only 18 percent of the vote (as opposed to getting almost 30 in parliamentary elections nine months ago) only reiterates the feeling.

However…

By that same standard, one could say that the real winner is LDS, which nearly doubled its result from parliamentary elections, when they barely made it past the 4 percent threshold. Furthermore, Gregor Golobič and Zares should be dancing the Mipos Dance of Joy, as they repeated their result from September 2008, despite the copious amounts of flak they were taking due to Golobič’s stumble in the Ultra business. Nine percent after a concentrated media barrage which came from all sides is not to be underestimated. Even less so for LDS, which – not unlike NSi – seemingly made huge gains.

And finally, by the above standard, NSi should be thanking whatever god they believe in, because they were literally brought back from the dead. 16 percent of the vote after they were already down and out.

And it is this last interpretation which casts a shadow of the doubt on the entire approach. How can NSi, which was in turmoil for the better part of the last nine months make a real comeback? And while we’re on that, how can in be that a media lynch of Gregor Golobič has zero (and I mean zilch) effect on his party?

Probably because most of the turnout was by die-hard supporters of their respective parties. Given the low turnout and the capacity of SDS and (partly) NSi to galavinse their base, good results of both parties suddenly don’t seem all that surprising. Namely, a lot of NSi and SDS voters are almost like the Pony Express (neither rain, nor sleet, not snow…), whereas left-wing voters are notoriously undisciplined. But that only goes so far in explaining what really happened. I mean, no-one is forcing right-wing voters to go vote at gunpoint, no matter how appealing that mental image might be

To answer this second question, let’s take a look at the bigger picture: Combined, the left bloc won almost 40 percent of the vote, whereas the right bloc got 43 percent of the vote, counting only parties which won MEP seets. If, however, we included all the parliamentary parties and kept NSi, for the sake of the argument, both blocs got 46 percent of the vote (keeping the nationalists as a separate category).

Things get even more muddy if we look at number of MEP seats won. By this measure, it was actually the left bloc which won, winning four out of seven seats, whereas the right bloc won the remaining three. Point being that overall relations between left and right have not changed a lot. What has changed, were relations between parties. If election results are to be taken for granted, then we have witnessed a redistribution of votes between parties of the same bloc, rather than pure left-right crossovers.

So, who won? If anything, it was a tie. It would be hard to make an argument that everybody lost, however. With 28 percent turnout, results are hardly representative. By any realistic measure, NSi got a disproportionate percentage of the votes and it would be safe to say that this goes for most of the other parties. With 72 percent of the electorate you can hardly say that the results represent anything but a disenchantment with politics in general as well as reflect a certain cynicism regarding European Union.

But in a final twist of irony, European elections in Slovenia are not yet over. Well… Not in Slovenia exactly. More like in Argentina. Where a lot of ex-pat Slovenians live, none of which apparently got empty ballots to vote by mail. And although Argentina is generally regarded as prime hunting ground for NSi, the vote there could decide whether Romana Jordan Cizelj or Zofija Mazej Kukovič will be the second MEP for Janša’s SDS, while neither NSi nor SDS have a chance of getting an additional MEP, and thus shake up the overall balance of power. Nevertheless, the State Electoral Commission decided that voters in Argentina will be able to vote and sent them. And how come voters in Argentina didn’t get their empty ballots? Simple. Argentinian post never delivered them. The same Balkan tricks, just like at home. Only worse :mrgreen:…