SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

More polls. The latest one was done by NinaMedia and run by Dnevnik daily and POP TV. Two things stand out. Firstly, the poll recorded an almost exact same percentage of undecided voters than a month ago (a rather welcome change from the wildly fluctuating number of “don’t knows” we’ve seen in the last couple of months). Secondly, the nationalists (SNS) led by Zmago Jelinčič recorded a sharp rise in popularity.

We can safely assume that Jelinčič’s rise in popularity is directly and indirectly the result of renewed border disputes between Slovenia and Croatia. As the latter revoked its Ecological Fishery Zone and was in return given a seat on the fast train to the EU, Slovenia has lost its leverage in Brussels and must now deal with Croatia on its own. Its just that the current situation suits politicians on both sides of the border just fine. The dispute is easy ground for scoring cheap political points. All you need is to go to the disputed area, have cameras follow you and start talking tough. If you repaint a border-marker ot two, all the better. This is exactly whar Zmago Jelinčič did: He went into a bush that supposedly separates Slovenia and Croatia on the bank of the river Mura, and went about single-handedly protecting Slovene national interests. Or so he says. TV crews obligingly followed and participated in this charade and made Zmago the day’s headline. Cocksucking supreme, if you ask me. Why not just ignore the guy?

In any case, Zmago seems to have struck a chord with some of the 2,7% additional voters who support him. I would sumbit to you, however, that a large proportion of his newfound support materialised “by extension”, so to speak. Namely, anytime Croatia is on the menu, people instinctively think of Jelinčič and his anti-Croatian rhetoric. In any case, Zmago Jelinčič and his SNS are the only party making any serious gains this time around

Having said that, the other part of the nationalist wing, Sašo Peče’s Lipa is again loitering around the 1% mark, which isn’t exactly good news for Sašo, as he should be making headlines by now, having a new party and all. In other races, Katarina Kresal’s LDS seems to have closed the gap on Zares, and is now trailing the party led by Gregor Golobič by a mere 1,1 percent, while SD and SDS kept first and second place respectively, with both parties losing some support but still breathing down each other’s neck.

We now have two sets of polls for a sort-of-longitudal comparison. If we take Delo’s polls of February and March and look at them side by side – well, one above another, actually – with Ninamedia’s polls of the same period, we can recognize some similarities, especially as far as LDS, Zares, SNS and SLS are concerned (the latter just can’t get off the ground). But there are also big differences: In Delo poll Janša’s SDS took the lead with Pahor’s Social democrats coming in second, while DeSUS and NSi enjoyed a hefty addition to their popularity, while Ninamedia poll detects an opposite situation, with SD marginally leading over SDS and DeSUS and NSi taking a slump

Pengovsky’s projecton: As other subjects grow more imporant in this campaign, Jelinčič’s bump is not expected to last. But this is fast becoming an eight (OK, at least seven) horse race, where a development in any of the smaller parties might have huge impact on any of the two big parties. So a continuosly strong showing by Zares had made its president Gregor Golobič self-confident to the point of not excluding joining a ruling coalition, although he was very conservative about his party’s goals as late as December last. But apparenly a lot can change in three months. So, if Zares and LDS (and possibly DeSUS) manage to hold on to or even improve their current ratings, their importance might grow far beyond their size as Borut Pahor will be pressed from all sides to form a centre-left government (with him being the centre – in more ways than one).

Oh, and while we’re on the polls issue: POP TV reports that SDS went mouse-click happy (Slovene only, I’m afraid) as one or more computers within its domain were used to vote on a web-poll run by Žurnal24 daily. What apparently happened is that SDS organised a click campaign and bumped the support for PM Janša in the poll. Before the trick was spotted, the poll said that 95% of responeed supported the PM against Andirjana Starina Kosem . Can’t say I’m surprised, really, because we’we seen something like that in Vroči Stol, when 83% of respondees supported Janez Janša against Borut Pahor. When will these guys learn that old tricks just don’t work any more?

EDIT: Olimpija lost yesterday. Bugger.

I almost missed it, but there was another poll by Episcenter published Sunday last. Please note, that this poll too – as all other Episcenter polls in this series – was commisioned by the government, which might have influenced the results. But be that as it may, two things are immediately obvious: the ruling SDS of PM Janša has surpassed its oppositon rival, the Social Democrats for the first time. In terms of total percentage points both parties have gained, but while the SD recorded only a token increase in support, SDS made substantial headway. Secondly, the “don’t knows”: this time around Episcenter records a staggeringly low percentage of undecided voters – a mere 19 percent.

In other interesting races: Zares kept the third place, while LDS (which some of the more prominent Zares and SD members used to call home) gained slightly, closing the gap a bit. The pensioners’ party (DeSUS) gained as well, which means that its eloquent-if-somewhat-sleazy boss does indeed know how to dodge bullets and survive politically. Supporters of Zmago Jelinčič (the nationalist party – SNS) seem to have remained unfazed by formation of rival nationalist party Lipa (headed by former SNS second-in-command Sašo Peče). The latter got a sole percentage point, but that is actually better than expected, as Peče & Co. have little to show for at the moment – save a nice-looking website.

And finally – christian democrat NSi (Nova Slovenija) and it’s slightly more enterpreneurial cousin-party, Slovene People’s Party (SLS) are hovering around the 3-percent mark, with NSi gaining the upper hand this time around. This is the longitudal graph representing all the polls in a single timeline:

What to say? For starters, if the exceptionally low number of the undecideds persists, we can assume that the polarization has already begun and that a visciously bloody fight for scrap-votes will ensue the minute the EU presidency end. Quite possibly, we won’t even have to wait until then as the SD will apparently have to do something, fast to prevent its ratings spiraling out of control. Yes, there is the presidency and the anti-tycoon drive which have bumbed up Janša’s ratings (as predicted), but that doesn’t mean Borut Pahor can sit on his pretty arse and do nothing but wait. They seem to be aware of that, as they’ve hired the same campaign managers which have helped the likes of Bill Clinton and Hugo Chavez get elected (link kindly provided by abaris, any relation to yesterday’s post is coincidential yet intentional 🙂 ).

What amuses me, though, is DeSUS. Namely: I’ve said on a number of occasions that pensioner’s party and similar cleavage parties (don’t google it 🙂 ) should be illegal, as they go against the essence of democracy (in my opinion at least political platforms should be shared based on beliefs and ideology and not based on age). But they seem to be turning into the little party that could.

Most of you remember the referendum on Triglav Insurance, which was held on the same day than last year’s presidential elections and when the voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposed privatisation of the state-owned financial heavy-weight. DeSUS and SLS went apeshit over it and demanded that the company’s controlling share be trasfered to the pension fund instead of being sold. Exactly a week ago the government passed a bill which proposed that a 34-percent share be transfered to the said fund, hopefully making it solvent for the forseable future. Having achieved this, DeSUS’s president Karel Erjavec seems to have the last laugh for now, as he actually does have something to show for joining the coalition.

Namely, three-and-a-half years ago Erjavec took a lot of heat withing the party, when some of its more fervernt members vowed to cut their remaining leg and burn their walking canes before going in bed with Janez Janša. But Erjavec maintained that their interests will be better protected if they join the colalition as opposed to remaining outside and bitching about it. With Triglav, Erjavec made his point big time. The added bonus being that he seems to bask in glory alone, as SLS is still trying to pick itself up.