The fourth government of Janez Janša is nary a month old and already they’ve earned themselves three referendum bids, an ongoing criminal investigation (from the before times) and a brazenly corrupt MP, even though he technically is not on the team.
But before we deal with all of that – or at least parallel to that – pengovsky feels it is important to get to know the people pretending to call the shots in version 4.0 of the Janša administration. Because obviously nothing will be done without the micromanager-in-chief’s say-so.
Pengovsky still writes this blog for free. Less frequently than he would like, but still. Sometimes, this boils down to the amount of coffee available. So, if you dig what you read here, feel free to buy pengovsky a coffee. Maybe he’ll post more frequently as a result.
Originally, this was meant to be a single post. But by the time pengovsky got to the fifth person on the list, the whole thing was already turning into a monster of a text. And it will get even longer as it will be necessary to take at least a perfunctory glance at some people who are technically not in the government or in the coalition. I’m looking at you, Katja Kokot. But we’ll get there. For now, let’s start with the Big Kahuna.
Janez Janša, the homeopathic prime minister
The man. The legend. The most prolific Twitter user this side of the Potomac and the last of the Leninists west of the Volga. He built his coalition more or less in secret, skillfully guiding Anže Logar and Jernej Vrtovec into a position where they thought they had no other option. Admittedly, Vrtovec didn’t need much guidance on that point (see below).
That said, this is the weakest of the four governments Marshal Twito formed over the last twenty-six years (for dramatic reasons, pengovsky is including the short-lived Bajuk government in 2000, which would not have happened but for Janša twisting many an SLS arm back then).
With 43 votes, the Glorious Leader is entirely dependent on the confidence-and-supply agreement with Resnica. And that is already bearing poison fruits. But maybe some of the anti-science mambo-jumbo the smallest parliamentary party keeps peddling rubbed off on Janša as well and he now thinks that the smaller his vote count the stronger his coalition will get. Call it political homeopathy.
Jernej Vrtovec, minister of infrastructure and SDS VP for NSi
Pengovsky wrote time and time again that Jernej Vrtovec as the party’s big cheese meant that NSi will return into a close orbit around the black cube hole that is the SDS. The move has paid off bigly for Vrtovec personally, as he is one of only two members of Janša 4.0 who got the same job he held in Janša 3.0.
Then there’s the little detail that Vrtovec is a subject of not one, but two criminal investigations, both of which seem to have gotten legs over the past year or so. On one hand, he is being charged with abuse of power as member of intelligence services oversight committee in the previous parliament. And on the other he is on the hook for campaign finance violations. It will come as a surprise to a grand total of zero people if either/both these charges are quietly dropped in the coming months.
And as a bonus, Vrtovec also saddled Janez Cigler Kralj, his opponent in the battle for party leadership last year, with a portfolio where things tend to get fucktangular on a regular basis (see below). And he got all of that for the low, low price of killing off his party’s independence.
Anže Logar, minister of economy, labour and pissed-off constituents
When Demokrati ended up in Janša’s latest government, a lot of people on the liberal-left (and even some on the right) took a big sip from the we-told-you-so cup. But their gloating remains unfounded.
Following his personal electoral fumble of, well, not getting elected, Anže Logar was determined to not negotiate with Robert Golob from a position of weakness. In the process, he talked himself into a position of even bigger weakness, with a guy who can really hold a grudge. And even though the Glorious Leader needs the Ambitious One to maintain something resembling a functional coalition, he did not forget the betrayal.
And so he saddled Logar with the worst job in Janša 4.0 government, making him the minister of economy and labour. As such, Logar will be yelled at by the businesses that supported his political (ad)venture and will want things in return. But he will also be screamed at by the labour unions whom he managed to piss off royally, twice, even before he got to see his new office.
In short, Anže Logar will the the one-man-forum for the entirety of social dialogue in Muddy Hollows for the next year and a half, or however long this government will actually hold together. And then there are the livid centre-right voters (all four of them), who voted for Logar under the assumption that he will be the pro-business check on Golob’s left-wing escapades, but got a Janša enabler instead.
If it were anyone else, pengovsky would almost feel sorry for them. But seeing as all of this is the direct result of Logar’s hubris, arrogance and inability to read the room, the only possible conclusion is that the dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed.
Andrej Šircelj, finance minister and the adult in the room
The main quality of Andrej Šircelj is that he understands numbers and budgets and knows that household and state finances are two very different beasts. Which is why he wasn’t all that giddy when the parliament passed the omnibus intervention bill that threatens to blow a billion-euro hole in in a 15-billion budget, with a built-in two-billion deficit. He added that a VAT reduction on staple foods will result in higher profits for retailers and not in lower prices for consumers.
This was a poke in the eye for Anže Logar especially, since the Demokrati leader marketed this provision of the omnibus law as a real social equaliser. Then again, Anže Logar was getting roundly, um, poked about then (see above), so it is possible he didn’t really notice one more hit on his dignity.
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed is king. And so Andrej Šircelj as finance minister is an oddly comforting fact. He is also the only other person to land the same portfolio he held in Janša 3.0. But make no mistake, he is not some maverick fin-wiz prodigy that was plucked from a board of a prestigious-if-shady international financial institution and brought home to revitalize the state finances.
Šircelj is a fully paid-up member of the Party who understands the pecking order and respects his position in it. And when he diverts too far from the party line, he, too, must make amends. Which is is why he spent most of the last two weeks walking back a statement he made upon taking office, that the general rate of VAT might have to be raised to balance the budget. That, it seems, is a bridge too far even for the only true remaining heir of socialism in Muddy Hollows.
Tone Kajzer, minister for foreign, European and Netanyahu affairs
Once it became clear that Anže Logar will not be landing the sweet, sweet gig of foreign minister (the way he tells it is that he didn’t want it because it would distract him from running the party, lol), Tone Kajzer was the most obvious choice.
As a career diplomat, Kajzer is probably a safe pair of hands at the helm (if not necessary the command chair) of Slovenian foriegn policy. Expect official Ljubljana to remain staunchly pro-Ukraine (if anything, this position will now harden even further), very much pro-European and in favour of Western Balkans accession to the EU.
That said, the flavour of these policies will definitely change and Kajzer will be the point man to handle it all. Which is where it might get tricky. In Brussels, Slovenia will probably shift to “green transition is evil and attached bottle-caps are woke” camp. It will also rediscover an affinity for populists and autocrats of the region, with the notable exception of one Vladimir P. (Putin, not Prebilič). On the other hand, Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia and Milorad Dodik of Wannabe Serbia are probably giddy with excitement at the possibilities of yet another Janša government.
The one person that might rain on this populist-autocrat parade is the EU commissioner for enlargement Marta Kos. Vučić loathes her with passion (a liberal and a woman? Eww!) and Janša simply cannot stand a senior apointee that he hasn’t appointed. So there is some scuttlebutt that the EPP is looking to lean on Ursula von der Leyen to cashier Marta Kos.
But since that would probably trigger a wider commission reshuffle, it is also unlikely Slovenia would keep the enlargement portfolio, even though it wanted it badly, across several administrations. Which would be a classic Janša move: cut one’s dick off to spite one’s crotch, or however the phrase goes…
Apart from being a career diplomat, Kajzer is also a card carrying Party man. Which means that if stuck between a rock and a Janša place, he will inevitably choose the latter. Four years ago, he got himself in quite the mess when – while serving as Slovenian ambassador to the US – he took a picture of a secret diplomatic cable with his phone and sent the picture to Janša who then posted it online, inadvertently exposing his source. As a result, Kajzer was terminated as ambassador for breach of security protocols.
But loyalty is hard currency within the SDS and sticking with Marshal Twito even though it was his shitty OPSEC that got Kajzer in the mess in the first place, he now gets to continue the tradition of former Slovenian ambassadors to D.C. being promoted to foreign minister.
In all likelihood, this will also mean carrying water for Benjamin Netanyahu in Brussels. With the Roundlegged Tartar finally ousted from his office in Budapest, Bibi will need a new man in Brussels to carry water for him. More often than not, the actual task will fall to Kajzer, with Janša taking the credit in Tel Aviv. Or just repaying the debt, depending on how you look at it.
Pengovsky is sure Kajzer will do whatever the Party and its Glorious Leader need him to do. But he probably wouldn’t mind if democracy had its way with Bibi, either.
Next up, Janez Cigler Kralj, Valentin Hajdinjak and a few others. Watch this space.
