Prime minister | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

Janša Giveth, Janša Taketh Away

In a surprise move, defence minister Aleš Hojs (NSi) on Thursday dissolved the contract on purchase of Patria APCs, giving the Patria Affair yet another twist. On the surface the whole thing was declared to have been mutually agreed with both sides calling it even. Slovenia gets 30 out of 135 planned APCs while Patria gets 74 out of planned 278 million euro. But in reality, the whole thing is a mop-up operation which no doubt is overseen by PM Janez Janša.

(source)

You see, Janša giveth and Janša taketh away. While it is true that anyone can rat but only the ingenious few can re-rat, our illustrious PM definitely does not count among them. Janša and his band of merry men had to remove foot out of their mouth on more than one occasion lately. Like with the kindergarten-freebie his government instituted in the good old days but was among the first benefits to be thrown under the bus when the going got tough.

But the Patria thingie is one of definitive moments of modern Slovenian politics. For the first time a dodgy arms deal was prosecuted and for the first time a senior politician is prosecuted for it. Also, for the first time a senior politician was appointed to a top post in the country while prosecuted.

The irony of the situation could not be more pronounced. It was Janša government 1.0 which signed the contract and it is Janša government 2.0 which is dissolving it. The only difference is that the person who actually signed the now-defunct contract (Karl Erjavec of DeSUS) got promoted from defence to foreign minister. In fact one can not shake the feeling that Janša’s main purpose is to clean up after his 2004-2008 power-orgy. As far as the case against him is concerned, this doesn’t change a whole lot. I’m sure some bright soul will try to trump up some sort of legal mumbo-jumbo saying that since the contract is no more, so should the case against Janša be. But in reality the Prime Minister still stands accused of corruption in from of a criminal court.

Politically, however, things are even more funny. Ljubica Jelušič (SD), defence minister in Pahor’s government (the one between both Janša’s tenures, to refresh your memory), said that annulling the contract was a good idea. However, while in office, she was adamant about not annulling the contract, which puts her in a rather awkward position and somehow makes Janša look like a person who can make decisions as opposed to Borut Pahor, who, well, couldn’t.

And this is the crux of the matter. It was Janša and his government who OKd a deal that was fishy from the start and where handsome bribes were allegedly paid. The deal had and anti-corruption clause built-in and PM Pahor had both grounds and ample time to either sue for annulment of reach settlement with Patria. Apparently, it wasn’t that hard.

Truth be told, not everyone is happy about it. Especially NATO is apparently cross with us now, because Slovenia gave a commitment to form a mid-size armoured brigade some time soon. This will not happen now. And it was probably this why then-PM Pahor couldn’t bring himself to kill the deal. His incessant need to be liked by everybody and his brother once again worked against him. The deal was stalled as it was and it was clear that it will not be going anywhere but while Slovenia had the brigade at least on paper, Pahor got the attaboy treatment in Brussels. Which is fine and dandy. The problem is that he probably knew back then this country wasn’t going to deliver. But he chose to dodge the issue rather than tackle it. Which is probably why he’s running for president now (but more on that some other day).

Janša on the other hand cares jack shit about such things. He killed the deal as soon as he got the chance, making his domestic position a little bit more stronger. Which seems to have been his modus operandi ever since he came to power seven months ago. Mostly by trying to keep coalition partners in line with various doomsday scenarios. Even if it means losing whatever credibility this country has left with foreign investors.

Getting Fired For Actually Doing Something?

Finance daily ran a story yesterday about PM Janez Janša is set to kick interior minister Vinko Gorenak and justice minister Senko Pličanič out of the government come Autumn. While the government communication office denied the rumours (PM Janša remains mute on the issue) the story might actually have legs given its proximity to last week’s scare about the vote of confidence.

In foreground: Senko Pličanič, left and Vinko Gorenak, right (Photo by Matej Družnik/Delo.si)

At any rate, a government reshuffle is quite embarrassing this early in the term of the current administration, but is also far from problematic. In fact, it has become something of a tradition for a Janša administration. Early on during his 2004-2008 stint at the top job Janša had to find a replacement for Jože P. Damijan, who resigned his post as development minister after only three months in office, reportedly due to falling out with then-finance minister Andrej Bajuk over (non)selling of NLB. Slightly off-topic: in hindsight it appears Damijan had a point back then and lost no time rubbing it in the face of his former boss (Google translate here)

It should also be said that neither Pličanič nor Gorenak (offically) have any knowledge of PM’s alleged bad blood, with Gorenak writing up a rather heavy rebuttal (again, google translation) but, interestingly, avoiding the finer points of Finance story. In fact, a lot of it is actually a classic non-denial.

But the gist of the story is somewhere else entirely. A week or so ago PM Janša appeared on Vroči Stol (Hot Seat) programme hosted by Vladimir “Vudu” Vodušek. What was basically a farcical re-run of a similar event four years ago would probably be forgotten soonest , had Vudu (now owner of a financially embattled Info TV cable TV station) not been arrested the very next morning on charges of extortion and blackmail, unofficially of a CEO of a hardware company. It was all highly embarrassing for the prime minister, who – according to the Finance story – went apeshit over not being told that Vudu was a target of a criminal investigation. And this is where things get interesting.

The only thing is that the PM is probably the last person on earth who can be told of an ongoing criminal investigation. In a democratic state politics stays out of police work. It takes the widest berth possible. Which is why Janša’s (again: alleged but not denied) reaction is highly symptomatic of how this administration sees this country: as a top-to-bottom controlled organism with no horizontally or vertically independent sub-systems and with the head knowing everything and making all the important calls. There’s a word for that and it ain’t democracy.

Minister Gorenak maintains that he never spoke to Janša about the investigation. Which is fine, even though one can understand the sentence as if he himself did have prior knowledge of the investigation (which he shouldn’t have, as the police is under his portfolio but not direct control). Which would – bizarre as it sounds – mean that interior minister Vinko Gorenak did something right for a change and is looking down the wrong end of a gun-barrel for it. Go figure. Not that he would be sorely missed, but still…

And as for minister Pličanič, he too is apparently getting the short shrift for doing too much rather than too little. According to media reports the past six months have seen (some sort of) results solely in the areas of financial austerity and public administration, the former being the portfolio of finance minister Janez Šušteršič while the latter is the domain of minister Senko Pličanič (both, incidentally, of Gregor Virant‘s Citizens’ List)

What Pličanič apparently didn’t understand was that he was meant to do as little as possible save perhaps a token effort here and there. He really should have gotten the message when the State Prosecution was detached from his portfolio (justice) and joined with internal affairs (ran by Gorenak). But as things stand, he seems to be poised to play the sad role of collateral damage.

Janez Šušteršič, Meet Reality

Reality seems to have caught up quite fast with finance minister Janez Šušteršič. The man who headed the government macroeconomic office (the aptly named IMAD) during the first Janša administration and refused to pick up the pieces after Jože P. Damijan, the would-be wonder boy of Janša 1.0 jumped ship after only 91 days in office, was forced to fork out EUR 381 million to recapitalise Slovenia‘s largest bank, the state-owned NLB.

Janez Šušteršič and NLB (source & source)

Well, to be honest, the state directly recapitalised the bank with EUR 320 million, while the remainder was coughed up by para-state funds KAD and SOD which is almost the same as if the state gave the money, only it looks better on the balace sheet. KAD and SOD entered the clusterfuck that is the NLB at the eleventh hour, after Belgian KBC bank refused to partake in the operation (after initially agreeing to the deal) and has thus seen its share in NLB shrink from 25 to 22 percent. The funny thing is that only months Šušteršič claimed that not a single euro from the budget will be used to recapitalise NLB. Which means the realisation that no-one will touch NLB with a ten-foot-pole must have come as a rude shock to our austerity-oriented finance minister.

In fact, given the ferocity with which Šušteršič and the rest of the sell-them-all-market-will-know-its-own gang were championing the “market approach” means that what we have witnessed vis-a-vis the NLB was nothing less than an about-face of epic proportions. In other countries, ministers get heavy flak for much less.

OK, fact of the matter is that NLB at this time is about as attractive as three-day-old road-kill and Šušteršič was basically looking down the barrel of a gun, faced with either pumping cash into NLB or hanging it dry. And we’ve seen what letting a bank go bust does, right? But there’s more: Not only did NLB need 380+ million of Tier 1 capital, it also has about three billion of bad loans on its books. And while Šušteršič maintains that most of these loans can and will be repaid, that is more or less eyewash. The bank will never see this money returned, because there is no way for companies who took out these loans (by far and large during the first Janša tenure, when the government encouraged expansionary economic policies) to return them. They don’t have anything to return them with. No competitiveness, no markets, no income, no way to pay the labour force, not even state contracts to offset the above and – finally – no earnings to finance their erstwhile debts.

So, yes, NLB will probably have to suck up losses of about three billion euro. Or about 8,5 percent of entire Slovenian GDP. That’s a lot. And that’s just the biggest bank. Other banks have bad loans on their books as well. Thus the finance minsiter and his boss, the prime minister can assure the country and the world, until they’re blue in the face, that Slovenia will not ask for a bailout of its banks. But the reality is that there will be a call made to Brussels sooner rather than later.

And if the U-turn on NLB recapitalisation wasn’t reason enough, the moment this country asks for a bailout will also be the moment when finance minister Janez Šušteršič will have to ask himself whether he’s fit to continue in this government. In other words: a request for a bailout should be accompanied by a letter of resignation.

The reason for this is painfully simple. Šušteršič positions on the issue, indeed his entire economic platform was about removing the state as a majority owner in key companies. This plan fell apart on the first rock it hit. Yes, NLB needed to be recapitalised and yes, the state is not necessarily a bad owner (although NLB was mismanaged time and again by politically appointed management). Having a the biggest bank in the system limp forward is preferable to letting it sink. But Šušteršič’s political positions which won him the mandate as an elected official, are in direct and blatant opposition with his actions. The two can hardly be reconciled which means that Sloveinan finance minister has a huge credibility problem. And a finance minister with a credibility problem is not something to be looked kindly upon. Just ask Franci Križanič.

But Šuštešič’s biggest problem is not his (lack of) credibility, but the fact that he is, unbeknownst to him, probably earmarked as the fall guy if things go badly wrong. This, at least, would appear to be case since Positive Slovenia announced it will start interpelation proceedings against the finance minister. Technically, an interpelation does not have to end with a vote on minister’s dismissal (although it often does). Instead, it is an instrument of ministerial accountability per se, forcing the minister to explain and defend his or her action.

Now, PM Janez Janša already called starting interpelation this early in the term “nonsense” and at least technically backed Šušteršič up (again, a lovely case of double standards as his party filed an interpelation against Katarina Kresal less then three months after she took office in 2009). But since DL and SDS found themselves on opposite sides on quite a number of issues in the past few days (mostly stemming from the “red star issue”) Šušteršič can be sure that he’ll be made to pick up at least part of the tab.

It seems that the finance minister started this term knowing what his priorities are and falsely assumed that these are other people’s priorities as well (we’ll neglect that these priorities are dubious at best). When challenged about past economic policies of coalition parties in a recent interview with Mladina weekly, Šušteršič answered that he doesn’t care about who did what in the past but is rather interested in what this government will do. And this is the gist of it.

Šušteršič naively assumes that somehow it’ll be different this time around. He really should know better than that. The prime minister is the same. Most of the coalition parties are the same. Most of the key players are the same. Even the problems are the same. How then could results be any different? Remember: I’m not saying that either state or private ownership are inherently bad or good. But the speed at which stated goals of this government and its financial minister have disappeared into thin air is somewhat breathtaking.

How Taylor Caldwell Introduced Marcus Tullius Cicero To Janez Janša

Just prior to becoming the Prime Minister, Janez Janša gave a speech which outlined the basic priorities of his government. These are a no-brainer: pension reform, cuts in public sector, job creation, lowering taxes and growth stimulation. Needless to say that you cannot have all of the above, but preachers of austerity were never concerned with the niceties of “growing-by-non-spending”, despite decades of failed experiments. But be that as it may, what stuck out was not the fact that Janša elaborated on Pahor’s reforms (the very same he helped bomb and which, looking backwards, look downright meek) and announced a package which would make Milton Friedman jump with joy. No, what caught many an ear, was a quote Janša used to justify the neoliberal happy-meal he’s about to serve Slovenia.

(source and source)

The prime minister quoted the great Roman orator Marcus Tulius Cicero, saying that “[t]he budget should be balanced, the treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt.”

The problem is, Cicero said no such thing.

The quote is an invention of one Taylor Caldwell, an American novelist who made it up in her 1965 novel A Pillar of Iron on the life of the now very much late senator. Thing is, the Cicero quote is much used all around the world, a fact which Janša readily acknowledges in his speech. Why is that? Well, it fits nicely with the Reaganomics of the 80s (notwithstanding the fact that US public debt exploded under Ronald Reagan) and the quote was reportedly used by Gipper himself, who also attributed it to Cicero. And who is Janez Janša to doubt the icon of the Republican party? Especially since the International Republican Institute holds the newly-minted Slovenian prime minister in such high regard…

This is not the first time Janša has a problem with sources. Back in 2008 he snatched a portion of Tony Blair’s speech and failed to quote the source. This time around, he did quote the source, but the source is false. Well, sooner or later he’s bound to nail it…

P.S.: hat-tip to the anonymous vigilant birdie who caught the blunder…

P.P.S.: Even thought this post is dated 1 February, it should have been posted on 31 January. Just so you know…

The Prez Floats Banker As Possible PM Nominee

In what was something of a surprise, president Danilo Türk said in a press conference earlier today that he asked Marko Voljč if he’d take on the nomination for the post of the Prime Minister. Formerly CEO of Nova Ljubljanska Banka (NLB), the largest bank in the country, he was forced to step down in 2003 in the wake of the so called Sigma Affair, when the bank entered a prolonged period of epic fails after implementing a new IT solution called Sigma which wasn’t all that was cracked up to be and wrecked temporary havoc with people’s bank accounts. Voljč moved on to become head of the regional division of the Belgian KBC which bought 34% of NLB in 2002. But today is not Voljč’s first foray into politics.

Marko Voljč in the middle (source: Vijesnik.hr via Delo.si)

Way back in 1992, when it became obvious that the first democratically elected government of Lojze Peterle was more or less in disarray, Marko Voljč (who was until then with the World Bank in Central America) was put forward as a challenger to Peterle in a no-confidence vote but lost by five votes. Eventually Peterle was ousted by Janez Drnovšek and soon thereafter Voljč became CEO of NLB where he stayed until 2003.

Testing waters

The President’s announcement today doesn’t mean that Voljč is nominated. What The Prez did was floated Voljč’s name for the political parties to consider whether the 44-44 stalemate between left- and right-wing parties could be broken. Specifically, this puts the spotlight on DeSUS of Karl Erjavec and DLGV of Gregor Virant. The former is apparently under pressure from party ranks not to join a possible Janša coalition, whereas Virant said more than once that a third person should be put forward, i.e. someone who is neither Janez Janša nor Zoran Janković.

While on the surface the Prez’s suggestion might seem bi-partisan and an attempt to break the political impasse, it could very well backfire. Sure, Virant will have a hard time explaining how or why he wouldn’t support someone from outside the immediate political field, but since his ratings are on the low end of the single-digit territory, his clout is all but gone and he seems to be already in Janša’s pocket. OK, so anything can happen and Virant is more than capable of shooting himself in the knee repeatedly, but reneging first on Janković and then on Janša will only speed up his political demise.

But as things stand, Virant may actually stand a chance of skipping Voljč and living to tell about it. Namely, what President Türk did today was not the most brilliant of political moves. True, the PM need not first be elected to the parliament to take the post, but nominating someone who did not even run, much less got elected while there’s a potential PM nominee on the political right is not exactly kosher. Sure, Janez Janša faces exactly the same problem as Zoran Janković did, in that he can only count on 44 votes and then lure “rats” from the left side of the spectrum across the isle, but if Zoran Janković was extended the privilege of being nominated, the same courtesy should be extended to Janša.

Speak now or forever hold your peace

In round two of the “find the PM” reality show things admittedly get much more serious. This is the final round where an absolute majority is needed and a reasonably stable government can be formed. Should this round give us no PM, however, a third round is possible, where only a relative majority is needed. In pengovsky’s opinion, president Türk should have waited with his “outside of the box” solution until then.

Regardless of the outcome, it would be only fair to let Janša have a crack at forming the coalition. It was also due to his actions that round one failed and leader of the SDS should be allowed to try and pick up the pieces. Namely, if he failed (something that depends heavily on Karl Erjavec and DeSUS), he’d be hard pressed to do anything but forever hold his peace and press the “yes” button during votes. Optimistic, I know, but there you have it. But what the President did was go head to head against Janša, who now only needs keep Virant in check, thus undermining Voljč as a nominee (the banker-man apparently said he’d want bipartisan support) and politically humiliate President Türk, who would thus score his second strike-out.

Zoran Janković said minutes ago that his PS would support Voljč, but that only means 28 votes. Luckily, Türk didn’t officially nominate Voljč, but the damage is done. Shitstorm continues.

Janković Fails In A Cliffhanger PM Bid

We were in for a cliffhanger. Today the parliament voted on Zoran Janković‘s bid for the post of Prime Minister with the outcome being far from predictable. Janković needed 46 votes but after Gregor Virant’s Citizen List gave him the finger on Monday evening, the winner of December 4 elections only has a 44-vote coalition.

Janković minutes before the fateful vote (photo: RTVSLO)

Janković’s coalition forming attempts got off to a rocky start. PM-presumptive got himself into a cock-fight with outgoing PM Borut Pahor early on, while Gregor Virant accused him of not so much negotiating but rather dictating terms. It all culminated in a clusterfuck at the end of which Gregor Virant saw himself get elected to the post of President of the Parliament, courtesy of an ad-hoc coalition between DLGV, DeSUS,NSi, SLS and SDS. Seemingly having learned his lesson, Jay-Z re-initiated negotiations and was all praised for the “new and much more constructive approach”. And indeed it looked as if the coalition deal will be cut like a butter with hot knife, with PS, SD. DeSUS and DLGV initialling the agreement during the weekend.

Playing both ends against the middle

But the ink on the paper didn’t even dry properly, when Virant was already in a huddle with Janez Janša, Radovan Žerjav and Ljudmila Novak, hammering out their version of a coalition agreement and apparently agreeing to that as well. Virant said that his party’s executive council will take the final decision on Monday evening, when they decided – without a vote against – not to go with Janković. However, careful observers immediately noted that Virant did not explicitly say that he’ll go into cahoots with Janša.

Virant’s chief negotiator Janez Šušteršič gave the flimsiest of excuses for the move for bailing out on a deal with Janković, saying that the PM-hopeful was not serious about it and would agree to just about anything to make the deal. He also said that DLGV and PS did not see eye to eye on some key points. In this he of course contradicted himself, showing that these were more excuses than real reasons. Also, Virant’s epic flip-flop from “he’s dictating terms, thus no deal” to “he’ll agree to anything, thus no deal” did not go unnoticed. It looked as if Virant was playing both ends against the middle and trying to end up on top, just as he did during the vote for the president of the parliament. This would mean Janković got screwed over yet again, this time due to no fault of his own (unlike the first time around).

Digging a new political low

As a result, Janković was left two votes short of an absolute majority, but claimed all along to have secured enough votes. This prompted a frantic search for supposed rats on the right side, with a couple of possibles coming from Virant’s own party. The political right went into emergency mode and announced that they will not even be collecting the ballots, much less casting their votes. With this they hoped to smoke out any possible converts (and en passant dug a new low in Slovene political culture). For a while it looked as if the two minority MPs might chip in their two votes, but they went on the record saying they stand by their previous statements that they will not be casting the decisive votes and will support a candidate who will secure 46 votes without them.

In the end, there weren’t any converts. Janković got only 42 votes, four short of the necessary absolute majority and two less than his coalition could nominally muster, which only adds insult to injury. It remains to be seen whether or not Janković will repeat the bid for PM, but since the right wing parties moved fast and already invited DeSUS and SD to enter coalition negotiations, odds are that Janša will have a go. But just as Janković could count on only 44 votes (give or take), Janša has no more to begin with and needs at least DeSUS to form a majority.

Will Janša step in?

And this is where things get blurry. Namely, it is entirely possible that the two votes Janković fell short of, were that of DeSUS’ very own Karl Erjavec and Franc Jurša. This is pure speculation and conjecture on my part, but word on the street has it that Jurša is somewhat more right-wing oriented than the rest of the pensioners’ gang, while Erjavec was apparently manhandled by the party’s executive council into supporting Janković. And since it was a secret balot, no one can actually say for certain who cast the single no vote and which four MPs abstained. On the other hand, it could still happen that – just as he did Janković – Virant doublecrosses Janša as well. I agree that is not likely to happen, but it is an entertaining to think that DLGV would actually play to come out on top, screwing both Janković and Janša out of their PM bids. Some say that this is the so-called “American plan”, where the US would like to see neither Janković nor Janša at the helm, but rather “the third man”, which Virant often hinted could be his chief-negotiator Janez Šušteršič. Again, not that this is a likely scenario.

What happens next? The president of the republic will re-open consultation with parliamentary groups to see if there is a new or at least a different consensus regarding a candidate for the PM. Türk did not rule out the possibility of re-nominating Janković, but that was before SDS officially invited DeSUS and SD for coalition talks. One thing the president did make clear, however, is that he will be making a nomination. This of course means that he could end up nominating the man who used forged documents, trying to implicate President Türk in the Velikovec Affair. But democracy is a cruel mistress and she has a sick sense of humour. On the other hand, even if Janša gets nominated, the outcome is far from certain. Not only does he not yet have the necessary votes, with him being the one who has to broker a deal, the relationships between potential partners will change rapidly. Erjavec will have to do some master salesmanship within his own party to ally DeSUS in the right wing coalition yet again, while SD membership will most probably mount a bloody revolt if Pahor as much thinks about jumping on that particular bandwagon.

Thus, what we saw today was not a forming of a right wing coalition, but rather an orchestrated attempt to prevent Zoran Janković from becoming prime minister, with little afterthought for consequences. It was, in fact, old boys preventing the new kid on the block from getting where the relative majority of the people wanted him. Theoretically, this can even end in yet another snap elections, but in all likelihood it will not come to that. With the new guy out of the picture, the established political players can now return to their business as usual and stop worrying about competition. This includes Virant, who is a) on the scene for more than a decade and b) is – as of today – a political corpse. He just doesn’t know it yet.

On the other hand, Zoran Janković could very well again run for Ljubljana mayor.

President Türk Nominates Janković for PM Post

A few hours ago President Danilo Türk nominated Zoran Janković for the post of the Prime Minister. With this the first stage of a post-election political wrangling is concluded and the relevant players now move to stage two, which is not all that different except for the fact that we now know who gets to have the first crack at forming a government. This was of course already known on election night, but due to a combination of inflated egos, cloak-and-dagger politics and naiveté, the last month can only be described as a fiasco bordering on a snafu

The PM nominee in the parliament (photo: Boštjan Tacol/Žurnal24)

In all honesty, it was painful to watch how Zoran Janković fumbled (with a little help from outgoing PM Borut Pahor) the early stages of coalition negotiations, allowing lesser players to cash in while the political left was locked in a senseless dick-measuring contest.

Post-election powerplay

A quick recap: immediately following his upset victory on 4 December, Zoran Jankocić intitiated what later turned out to be a preliminary round of negotiations with prospective (and slightly less so) coalition partners. Being a man of action and all that jazz, the “immediately” part should be understood literarly. While the rest of the political arena was still reeling from the shock of the result, Janković called at Borut Pahor the very next morning and was more or less given a cold shoulder, with the leader of the Social Democrats adding a thinly veiled insult or two, saying that he would rather have nothing to do with Janković and even went on the record that he disapproves of the (supposedly authoritarian) leadership style of the PM presumptive. This later erupted into a full blown war of words just prior to the inaugural session of the parliament, where – if all things were equal – the coalition would be at least broadly already agreed upon and a president of the parliament would be elected from the ranks of (future) coalition partners.

Apparently, Janković was quite blunt in telling Pahor there’s no place for him in the new government, which is what probably prompted Pahor’s furious response and things went downhill from there. At first Pahor was urged to run for president of the parliament but refused, then changed his mind at the 11th hour and ran anyway, in a move that appeared to have been coordinated and aimed at sealing the deal between PS and SD. Only it wasn’t and it didn’t. In fact, Pahor went solo, catching off-guard both SD and PS parliamentary groups. In retaliation Janković – who isn’t the one to let other people have the initiative – put forward his own candidate for President of the Parliament, Maša Kociper (Ljubljana City Councilwoman and first time MP), thus creating an insurmountable impasse, as the votes on the left were split between the two candidates.

It was all very basic political mathematics, in fact. Janković who (mistakenly, as it turned out) thought he had his back covered with Gregor Virant‘s DLGV and Karel Erjavec‘s DeSUS, could simply not let Pahor steal the momentum in the opening stages of the game, because that would inevitably mean the outgoing PM would gain the upper hand in any coalition negotiations, quite possibly forcing himself into the position of Foreign Minister. Admittedly, this was the pundint’s consensus early on, but it soon emerged that in a Janković-led government, there is room for only one ego: that of Zoran Janković, who – instinctively or otherwise – knows better than to let a potential challenger into his inner circle, especially if this person is also an expert in a field where Zoki is lacking.

Jay-Z gets screwed over

With the impasse being created, the (imagined) consensus between PS, DLGV and DeSUS for the latter two to support whomever Pahor and Janković agree upon, broke down just as Pahor backed down and SD agreed to support Kociper. Virant and Erjavec went rogue and formed an ad-hoc coalition with Radovan Žerjav (SLS), Ljudmila Novak (NSi) and Janez Janša (SDS) and elected Gregor Virant to the post of the President of the Parliament, nominally the second most senior position in the country.

Obviously, all hell broke loose. Whether or not this was a pre-meditated move or was indeed just aimed at ensuring the constitution of the parliament and adopting the emergency financial legislation before the year’s end (as the official line went) will probably never be known for sure. Pengovsky believes that it was a mixture of both. Namely, if the right-wing MPs were concerned with the legislation that much, they might have just elected Kociper and let things stand. But there was more to it.

With Zoran Janković being both the new kid on the political block as well as having the delicate approach of a buldozer on steroids, the rest of the political honchos were itching to teach him a lesson in humility. So the old boys made a quick deal and ganged up on Janković, screwed him over and effectively stalled the already protracted two-stage nomination process. That this was indeed the case, was shown beyond a shadow of a doubt in the last three weeks. That and the fact that there are still Top Gun references to be made in Slovenian politics.

Namely. Ever since his ascent to the top of the parliament, Gregor Virant became increasingly obnoxious and started taking his role of the king-maker way to literally. In fact, he began raising the bar for his entry into a coalition almost daily, as well as negotiating with Janković and Janša simultaneously and trying to form a “third block” of smaller parties to prop up his own position. This third block at first included DLGV, DeSUS and SLS and now includes NSi as DeSUS dropped out.

Virant’s fall from grace

If Virant didn’t already get the message, he will. That’ll in all likelihood become painfully obvious in the coming days. He made huge bets left and right, putting his people (namely Janez Šušteršič, also a possibility for the post of finance minister) as “a compromise PM candidate”, forgetting that he already won plenty, especially in light of the fact that he didn’t bring a lot of chips to the table to begin with (8% of the vote ain’t much, really). But a month has passed and President Türk did what everyone expected him to do from Day One, so Virant will definitely pay the price for his behaviour.

But turning to the president’s decision: OK, so he didn’t rush things, but separation of powers should not be taken lightly. The Constitution is clear on this issue and it instructs the president to make a nomination after conferring with parliamentary groups. The Prez did that, gave some more time for negotiations and then nominated Zoran Janković. Could he have done things faster? In hindsight, yes. But in hindsight Janković probably wouldn’t have left Virant and Erjavec to their own devices two weeks ago and would have had his “chief whip” Jani Möderndorfer keep close tabs on both. OK, so Möderndorfer should have done that in any case and that he didn’t is a #fail on his part.

#fail is all around us

Speaking of fails, US Ambassador to Slovenia Joseph Mussomeli made a bit of a faux-pas the other day. While visiting PM Pahor, who spent most of the last month in hospital with what was officially described as a serious ear infection, he was a wee bit too candid regarding the political situation and described – without naming names or political parties – what kind of a coalition he’d wish for Slovenia. It later emerged that various (but not all) party leaders discussed the situation with the ambassador with Ljudmila Novak of NSi rambling on about how the US wants a coalition which includes NSi.

Now, while pengovsky is more than happy to entertain thoughts about US hegemony, this is too rich even for my own perverted mind. Seriously, to think that there’s a Slovenian desk somewhere in the State Department, which advises the US ambassador on which parties the only world superpower would like to see in the ruling coalition in Slovenia? It seems Gregor Virant is not the only one whose ego is writing checks their body can’t cash.

BTW, Mussomeli earned himself a slap on the wrist by both President Türk and Slovenian foreign ministry for that one.

Do I hear 60 votes?

At any rate, the deed is done. Zoran Janković is nominated for the post of the PM and it is now entirely up to him to form a ruling coalition. Pengovsky believes things will go relatively smoothly from now on, at least compared with the last four weeks. The way things stand now, a coalition between PS, SD, DLGV and DeSUS seems the only viable option. In my opinion SLS is still in the picture, despite the fact that Radovan Žerjav said in no unclear terms that he will not support Janković for PM. But not supporting Janković does not mean not supporting the government or at least certain key government policies. And with SLS as a backup, Janković comes interestingly close to the 60 votes needed to amend the constitution.

Great things could be afoot. But note the conditional…