Clean Shovel Hits The Wrong Back

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The control tower that will not be

According to this story by Dnevnik, Operation Clean Shovel took a slight turn for the unexpected. Namely, one of the accused, Vegrad CEO Hilda Tovšak is said to have spoken to a personal secretary of Prime Minister Janez Janša who supposedly assured her that the deal for the new 100 metre high control tower at Ljubljana Airport (wiretaps confirming fixing the result of the tender for the project lead up to arrests) would go to her company and that the PM was in the know.

Now, this may all be nothing, but this personal secetary (who is personal secretary to the prime minister no more, mind you) is a son of a prominent SDS supporter and an occasional golfing partner to the PM which puts Janez Janša dangerously close to the whole thing. Could it be that he will be the one getting hit on the back with a clean shovel?

Zares Secures Third Spot

Delo ran a new poll yesterday, a month since pengovsky started following polls prior to autumn parliamentary elections. This poll is the first one done in a post-Clean Shovel enviroment and in this respect it is mildly surprising, to say the least.

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Namely, there is no visible effect of the pre-dawn raids on construction powerplayers and supposed tax-evaders. What we are seeing, though, is a substaintial headway Zares seems to have made over LDS. How or why this happened is at this point a bit of a mistery – unless you are willing to subscribe to the theory that a battle for the legacy of the late Janez Drnovšek just ensewed and Zares won the first round.

In the duel between SD and SDS, things are interesting as well. As noted already, there was no spectacular gain on the part of SDS which we might be able to attribute to Operation Clean Shovel. So the rise in support for SDS can be considered “organic” in my view. The PM is on the news a lot lately (presiding the EU and all) and correspondingly the frequency of Borut Pahor seeing himself on the telly has fallen dramatically – there is only so much politics you can squeeze in the main news bulletin 🙂 On the other hand, Social Democrats are still bleeding support. Not at an alarming rate anyhow, but their strategists should not worry about their losses, but about gains SDS has made. Namely: if we took only Delo’s polls of yesterday and of a month ago, we see that SDS made substantial gains while SD kept on losing, even though it still kept the top spot.

Finally, we can now take a look at the entire month of February. As polls were made by different pollsters on different samples, the graph below is not exactly accurate, but it can give you a general idea of what is going on: SDS and SD continue breathing down each other’s necks, while the rest of the political gang fight for the leftovers – but there’s enough of that to go around as even those parties which are currently below the parliamentary treshold (the red dashed line) will – as things stand now – make it across to the safe territory. A notable exception to the rule is Zares, which pushed ahead of the “general populatation” and is loitering a coupe of percentage points above the rest of the parties, but is far far below the leading duo.

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Pengovsky’s projection: I think we might still get to see a slight bump in SDS’s ratings as a result of the anti-corruption sweep, but it will not last long. But barring a major embarasment, the rise in support of the ruling party will continue, at least as long as the EU presidency lasts. Then the shit will hit the fan, and it the race will go down to the wire. Until then, however, the nine political parties (Lipa included, as it was formarlly established on Saturday) will want to secure the best possible starting positions.

Laško In Crosshairs?

One person was detained yesterday in Maribor by the criminal police on charges of tax evasion. According to reports by Finance business daily the person in question is Rado Snežič (edit: According to today’s Dnevnik, Rado Snežič is abroad and the person detained is his second-in-command), owner and CEO of Meltal, a company dealing in scrap non-ferrous metal. This may or may not be connected to Operation Clean Shovel, but the proximity of two events suggests at least a moderately strong link.

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Kolonel post-box (source) and Rado Snežič w/wife (source).

Now, Rado Snežič could just be a wrong man and a wrong place at the wrong time, but as he apparently holds more than just tangential connection to Laško Brewery, the whole “war on tycoons” declared by PM Janez Janša during the vote of no confidence is begining to take on shape and form. And the main target right now seems to be Laško’s Boško Šrot, who broke Janša’s influence on Delo daily and got hold of Mercator retail chain in the process, swindling Janša big time in the process.

But is this really a war against tycoons or is the prime minister simply holding a grudge and looking to score some cheap political points?

Two Polling Camps

So, we’ve got two new polls as of a couple of days ago. One by Večer daily and one by Ninamedia, each very different from the other. And while Ninamedia’s poll keeps within the broad trend shown by the other polls, Večer’s poll shows a staggeringly different result.

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The thing that stands out the most with Večer poll is a large percentage of the undecided vote – even larger than in the Parsifal poll taken a week ago.Funny thing is, though, that both polls (Večer and Parsifal) show a similiarily high percentage of undecided voters and correspondingly low numbers for the two main rivals: Janez Janša‘s rulling Slovene Democratic Party (SDS) and Borut Pahor‘s opposition Social Democrats (SD). Furthermore, the SDS has a slight lead over SD, which is another similarity with the Parsifal poll. And if you look at the Episcenter poll, you’ll notice that this poll too records a lead of SDS over SD but a very low number of the undecided vote – very much like Ninamedia, which has the lowest number of undecided voters since this blog started summing up the polls (three weeks ago).

Now, it has to be noted, that Večer’s poll indicates a statistical error of some 3,5 percent, which means that results for NSi, DeSUS, SLS and Lipa are practically useless, as their results could vary significantly with a slighlty different sample. It would be interesting to see, however, statistical errors of the other polls. I suspect it is smaller as their sample is somewhat higher, but all-in-all this might prove to be a crucial piece of information. What is interesting, though, is the fact that two “camps” of polls seem to be developing. One with a high rate of the undecided vote and with the two main parties being tied (or with SDS slightly ahead), and the other with a smaller percentage of the undecided vote and with SD slightly ahead of SDS. The reason for it? Technically, I think we can put it down to a different sample. Is it political? Could be. Too early to tell…

Pengovsky’s projection:: Obviously the two main conteders remain the same and I suspect that as time passes the battle between SDS and SD will turn into a battle between Janez Janša and Borut Pahor. Further down the poll the nationalists seem to be comfortably running circles around the 5% mark, but we’ll see if Sašo Peče will steal the limelight as he and his renegade nationalists will officially form Slovenska lipa party on March 1. Another duel to watch is of course the LDS/Zares thing, where the latter seems to be ahead on the whole, but differences between the two parties are minimal. Given the peculiarities of Slovene voting body, I still think all of the polled parties will make it across the four-percent-treshold.

Janez Drnovšek (1950 – 2008)

janezd.jpgFormer President Janez Drnovšek died last night. He has infulenced Yugoslav and Slovenian politics profoundly, giving a stellar perfomance in a relatively short period of time.

YUGOSLAVIA

He entered the top level of Yugoslav federal politics in 1989, seemingly coming from nowhere, although he has served as a deputy in Federal Assembly and as an economic advisor to the Yugoslav embassy in Cairo, Egypt. But as he kept a low profile, he was a complete anonymous to general public which elected him as the Slovene member of the federal Presidency over the candidate preffered by the Communist Party. This was to become a defining moment both for Slovene democracy and for Janez Drnovšek, who by a twist of faith became the first member of the Federal presidency to take over a year-long rotating mandate in 1989. While in office he presided over the start of dissolution of Yugoslavia, rise of Slobodan Milošević and emergence of democracy in Slovenia and Croatia.

During his tenure as President of the Presidency he saw up close what Slobodan Milošević and the Yugoslav National Army were up to. The drive for an increasingly centralised federation with Serbia as the dominant entity drew the other republics, most notably Drnovšek’s native Slovenia to implement democratic changes and seriously start exploring the possibility of a future without Yugoslavia. Upon assuming office he was also immediately faced with a problem which was to be solved ony shortly before his death. Kosovo. One of the most burning controversies at the time was whethet the Presidency and Drnovšek as its president knew of allegations of contentration camps for Kosovo Albanians. He would later (in 2005) be among the first Slovene politicians to claim that Kosovo was de facto independent.

Janez Drnovšek was the first more or less democraticaly elected Yugoslav president and the first one to speak to foreign dignitaries in Slovene language. When the Non-Aligned Movement held its annual meeting in Belgrade in 1989, he opened the plenary session in Slovene, which was a gross provocation at the very least, as the question of language was at the centre of controversy during a show trial in Ljubljana where an obscure scribe who went by the name of Janez Janša was accused of high treason by the Army which would not allow the trial to be coducted in Slovene.

The end of his tenure almost perfectly conicided with the first democratic elections in Slovenia, but Drnovšek continued to serve in Belgrade as Member of the Presidency (being succeeded by Serb Borisav Jović) and he kept an active role in trying to protect Slovene interests in Belgrade alongside Milan Kučan and Janez Stanovnik (the latter was replaced by Kučan as Preident of the Republic after 1990 elections).

After Yugoslavia broke up and Slovenia and Croatia declared independence, Drnovšek’s functions in Belgrade stopped, but as the only Slovene politician to have more or less direct access to foreign leaders, he became integral to the diplomatic side of Slovene independence. Although not bearing any formal title, he was a part of Slovenian delegation in Brioni in July 1991, where Slovenia
negotiated cease-fire with Yugoslav National Army which effectively ended the 10-day war.

SLOVENIA

A year later, Drnovšek was co-opted by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDS) as its president. What all along seemed a marriage of convenience (Drnovšek needed a party and LDS needed a president) was a remarkebly successful enterprise, as Drnovšek was elected as a Prime Minister in 1992 by a broad coalition in a non-confidence vite which toppled the government of Lojze Peterle. Again, Drnovšek seemingly came from nowhere and – although hardly an anonymous this time arouns – he was there to stay. Serving three consecutive mandates as PM (1992 – 2002) he is to date the only PM not to have lost an election.

During his terms as PM Slovenia was rapidly transforming itself from a planned- to a market-economy, a process that was not without its pains. Drnovšek inherited a work-intensive and a more or less non-competitive economy which saw a country-wide string of bancrupcies which exponentially increased the number of unemployed, a drop in productivity and a rise in inflation. But Slovenia was slowly showing signs of economic recovery, and – performing transition on its own terms rather than under an IMF dictate – within a couple of years the economic indicators were positive and Slovenia was showing all signs of a moderate economic miracle – long after all the other new European countries were paying a heavy price for quick liberalisation of the market and sell-off of state property.

Far from being ideal, but it can be said that economic and social transition under the tenure of Janez Drnovšek has provided Slovenia with the “best of both worlds” or possibly a very close approximation. This would of course not be possible had Slovenia not had a coalition government, which Drnovšek additionally equally balanced by left and right-wing parties, positioning himself and LDS firmly in the political centre. This has led to frequent accusations of political opportunism, especially during 1996-2000 mandate, when Slovenia was faced with a political stalemate as the parliament was split right down the middle and Drnovšek got his shot as PM only after a deputy of Christian Democrats swithched his allegiance to LDS in what was to become known as Puckism (named after Ciril Pucko, the ratting deputy) and probably one of the more michevious political deeds of entire Drnovšek’s career. Because, although completely legal, the switch did leave a sour taste in the mouth of many, especially after Drnovšek (although nominated as PM) failed to get his initial cabinet elected and had to assemble an entirely different coalition to elect the cabinet. This also led to the rise of Slovene People’s Party (SLS) which became juniour coalition partner and has been a part of any ruling coalition ever since.

The same SLS briefly toppled Drnovšek’s government in Spring 2000, only to see him re-elected by the widest of margins later in the year. In 2000 elections, LDS alone got more than 30% of the vote and a coalition with Social Democrats and (surprise, suprise) SLS ensured a 2/3 majority in the parliament – a luxury never before experienced in democratic Slovenia. But LDS was becoming increasingly self-involved, ineffective and even corrupt. The straw which broke the camel’s back was to take form of a luxury jet which the goverment was to buy and which was so badly communicated that everything that government PR did only made things worse – up to the point of pressuring state TV not to run a piece on the issue. It all culminated in Drnovšek’s address to party members at a congress where he demanded a stop to cronyism, nepotism and corruption within the party. But it turned out to be too little to late and the LDS was already on the path which would end in its destuction. Drnovšek, however, after a long and very public period of sitting on the fence, decided to resign as PM and run for President as Milan Kučan’s second term ended in 2002.

Drnovšek was elected President after defeating Barbara Brezigar (now General Prosecutor) in the second round. Upon assuming office he also assumed an unusually low profile. He executed his presidential duties with little flair and at times he seemed non-existent. All that changed in early 2006, as President Drnovšek announced that he is forming a Movement for Justice and Development, a non-governmental organisation aimed at bettering the human race. This coincided with a complete personal transformation of Janez Drnovšek who suddenly took on a more active, but also highly unconventional role of what was latter to become known as a “hippy president”. He claimed to have been cured of cancer (see below), shunned western medicine (only to re-embrace it later), he turned vegan and moved out of Ljubljana to a remote hill of Zaplana. He rejected materialism and started studying oriental philosopy. He also openly mocked current Slovenian politicans, keeping them jumpy prior to 2007 elections when he wouldn’t say whether he would seek re-election or not, and even admitted to be doing it just to see them twitch. In the end he didn’t run for office and was last seen in public in late December 2007 when Danilo Türk took over as President of the Republic.

During his transfomative periods he also had a series of fall-outs with the government of Janez Janša, with whom he intially seemed to get quite along. Tensions culminated in 2006 when The office of the President was refused additionaly funds to continue Drnovšek’s foreign policy activities. Later that same year the anti-Roma crisis erupted in Ambrus and President Drnovšek led a convoy to help the Strojan Roma family at Christmas time, only to be blocked by a barricade whereupon he scorned the local population for its treatment of the Romas.

SICKNESS

In 1999 his spokesperson said that Janez Drnovšek has had a kindey removed due to malignant tissue. Drnovšek rarely talked about his cancer and save an occasional debate on whether politicians should present a clean bill of health before running for office, the issue was more or less left untouched. Only whishpers and roumors could be heard, mostly connected to the fact that there was a high-tech ambulance parked whereever Drnovšek was that his trademark moustache was gone due to chemotherapy and not just a change in style. It was only in 2006 that he admitted to have been diagnosed with cancerous metastases in his lungs and liver. At about that time he also publicly shunned western medicine and opted for the alternative approach, later even abandoning all treatments. He claimed to have been cured and although his behaviour was erratic at times he seemed in good spirit. It was only the fact that he looked more and more frail as time progressed (and he was not a corpulent person to start with) that gave away that he was fighting a losing battle.

IMPACT

Janez Drnovšek, Ph.D., an economist by vocation, was one of handful of individuals who have shaped Slovenian politics in the last twenty years, and would easly make the list of top 10 Slovenians of the 20th century. Be it as a no-name thrown into a cessspool of Yugoslav politics, a highly talented PM who brought Slovenia back from the brink of economic collapse and transformed it into a sucessful new enocomy, as a statesman whose connections and acquaintances rivaled those of every American president or a popular leader who is was concerned with issued of enviroment and sustained growth and who brought the Darfur crisis to world’s attention, he set the pace and the tone of Slovenian and sometimes even international politics.

Having had such an illustrious carrer, it is hard to single out one achievment that will outlast Janez Drnovšek for times to come. The obvious answer would of course be the creation of a sovereign Slovene state. But this humble blogger would like to think that the two things Janez Drnovšek should be remembered by are his speech at Teharje commemoration, when he in my opinion set the record straight regarding World War II and made the decisive step in national reconciliation and the fact that politics perhaps some day can be done in a different way. Not today, and perhaps not tomorrow, but some day. It is just a shame that a person must depart this Earth to show us that.

Janez Drnovšek, 58, was an author of four books and is survived by a son and a daughter.

Izbrisani / The Erased

I was meaning to write up this one a while ago, but things just kept happening. Namely, The Erased, a human rights fiasco which affected almost 1% of entire Slovenian population. 18.000+ people, mostly from former Yugoslav republics, who for one reason or another failed to get their papers in order after Slovenia declared independence were removed from all official databases. They were in effect – erased.


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The Erased in Brussels


Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) ran a fine peice on the issue a couple of weeks ago (you really should listen to it) which gives a fair account of the issue which is – needless to say – highly divisive as the Constitutional Court has ruled in 2004 that the erasure was unconstitutional, but the parliament has failed to address the issue properly. And not just this parliament and this government. The erasure happened in 1992 and every single government since has turned a blind eye or made only a token effort to solve what was increasingly becoming a social and not just a political problem. Naturally, the government doesn’t see it this way (note that the document pre-dates Janša’s government).