Assuming he doesn’t spring some sort of a trap and contests the result , Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić has lost parliamentary election last Sunday. Obviously the fall of any autocratic regime should be celebrated by itself. But here is also a distinct Muddy Hollows angle to Serbia finally doing what needed to be done a long time ago.
To put it succinctly, as a result of Serbian election thoughts and prayers are needed across large swaths of Slovenian political class. Both nationally and locally, politicians of various persuasions have lost either a dragi prijatelj or a garant stabilnosti. Again, barring predsjedniće pulling an authoritarian rabbit out of his shopping cart, things could get at least somewhat dicey for a number of people around here.
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Some time ago, pengovsky wrote that the Slovenian left-liberal bloc sees (saw) Aleksandar Vučić as someone they could do business with, while the (far-) right bloc saw him as an illiberal fellow traveller they could do business with.
Which is why the results of yesterday’s election in Serbia will have ramifications that will go beyond just who gets to be the new Serbian ambassador to Muddy Hollows.
Muddy Hollows wooing Vučić
Ever since the fall of Slobodan Milošević, 26 years and 20 days ago, relations between Slovenia and Serbia have been steadily improving. Obviously, some of this was just the usual diplomatic song and dance, but Ljubljana always kept an eye on what was going on in the region. Even if ineptitude sometimes got the better of would-be Slovenian statesmen. But since interests were had, invites were extended, smiles were put on and hands were shaken. Also, photos were made. Lots of photos.
From Miro Cerar onwards, every high-ranking Slovenian politico made a point of schmoozing with Vučić. Of course, there was always an angle, be it economic, migration-related or otherwise, but there was schmoozing.
To her credit, the one person who at least partly refused to play that game was president Nataša Pirc Musar, who during her first (only?) official visit to Serbia, publicly broke with Vučić over his treatment of journalists, during a live press conference. Former PM Golob also ultimately soured on Vučić, but only after the Serbian strongman used some choice language against Slovenians in April 2024.
The other occasion when a Slovenian politico really took Vučić to task was then-outgoing president Borut Pahor launching a tirade in 2022 against his counterpart in Belgrade, admonishing him to not start any wars. Which was weird as fuck but also widely considered to be Pahor auditioning for the role of NATO secretary general. Needless to say, he didn’t get the job.
Janković and Janša inhabit the Vučić-verse
But the two politicians who illustrate just how interconnected Slovenian political landscape Vučić-verse really is, are Janez Janša and Zoran Janković. Because of course they are. For a pair of old white dudes who hate each other’s guts, Ivan and Zoki really have a lot in common. Including an affinity for one Aca Vučić.
The former, because there are only so many people around who are not complete crackpots and are still willing to indulge your lamentations about cultural Marxism, dangers of migration and woke LGBT ideology. But also because Republika Srpska of Milorad Dodik, who falls squarely under the suzerainty of Aleksandar Vučić, is a useful workaround for various Slovenian financial shenanigans, including circumventing campaign finance limitations.
The latter…. well… where do we begin? Even though both Vučić and Janković seem to have a soft spot for one Vlad Putin of Moscow, the pair could not be ideologically more different. And yet, ideology at least for Janković is something that ought not get in a way of a good business deal. And nowhere did this become more apparent than in his relationship with Vučić and (by extension) Dodik.
In fact, it was Janković’s uncharacteristic tone-deafness with regard to Serbian student protests which alienated a lot of liberalish voters from Ljubljana mayor. And when the city Big Cheese fumbled his response to the rumour that he might end up running for Serbian presidency or prime-ministership, his until then very lively goose started its trek to the kitchen.
Harbinger of things to come…
Whether it will be cooked in local elections in three week’s time remains to be seen, but let’s just say that this time there’s people hanging around to check if there’s leftovers.
But even if the fall of Vučić presages the fall of Janković, surely both of them have fallback plans. One wild option is that Janković, should he lose the municipal vote (at this time an unlikely but not an impossible scenario), could end up running for Serbian president in December. I mean, Vučić is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, and if a loyal friend like Janković ends up looking for a job… Who know what might happen.
The person rapidly running out of fallback plans is Janez Janša. Many moons ago, Glorious Leader bet it all on Lord Protector And Saviour Viktor Orban. When the Round-legged Tartar chose Moscow over Kiyv, Janša broke with him and stuck with Vučić and Benjamin Netanyahu.
As of last night he is down to Bibi only. And by Wednesday morning even that might change. And then there’s the US midterms…
… but Mr. Muscles has other problems
Point being, that Aleksandar Vučić was a good and/or useful buddy to large swaths of Slovenian political landscape and that his absence will be felt. Sorely by some, gleefully by others.
The one person who probably doesn’t know what had happened and how to react is Speaker and Resnica leader Zoran Stevanović. Since he took over as parliament boss, Mr. Muscles has made a great show of palling around with characters from Vučić-verse. He even made a pilgrimage to his ancestral village in Republika Srpska, flanked by Dodik himself.
Only weeks ago, there were all these nice people who spoke so kindly to him and were shoving protein and drinks into his hands and kept telling him what a great guy he is. But now, no-one is answering his DMs and his Instagram statistics have taken a dip. Do they not like him anymore? Could it be that he is not as important as they kept saying he is? Surely not…
Then again, maybe the Bodybuilder-in-Chief doesn’t have the time to think about any of that. He has more than enough problems finding someone to serve as a replacement MP, so his universe got really small really fast as it is, Vučić, or no Vučić. More on that soon…
