Nothing Kučan Says Is Not True… A Guest Post by St. Luka

Thursday’s post on Kučan vs. SDS seems to have stirred the pot a bit – and I’m not thinking people who share the nick with a certain German philosopher. What caught my eye was a brilliant post by no other than St. Luka. In his “Nothing Kučan Says Is Not True…” he constructs a brilliant argument as to what exactly was going on and what exactly was Milan Kučan saying…

Since his post is in Slovene (as is indeed his entire blog) I’ve asked St. Luka for permission to translate and repost his post and he generously agreed. Here it is – his first guest post on pengovsky.com ever.

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A: Everything Kučan says is untrue!

B: Nothing Kučan says is not untrue!

A: Everythign Kučan says is not true!

B: Nothing Kučan does not says is not true!

A: Everything Kučans does not say is true!

B: Everything Kučan says is not untrue!

A: Nothing Kučan doesn’t say is not untrue!

B: Everything Kučan doesn’t say is untrue!

A: What does Kučan actually say?

B: ???

The latest linguistic clash between Milan Kučan and Slovene Democratic Party has once again shown that the beauty of a language lies in the fact that the language by itself, words, sentences, mean nothing. That statements are neither »true« nor »untrue« based on any sort of »reality« of a particular event. Rather, their meaning must be researched on an entirely different level.

What is it all about? POP TV has reported the event, but they were happily oblivious to traps, quirks and beauties of Slovene language, therefore they reported only on SDS’s »witticisms« and Kučan’s »short memory«. In short: they’ve failed to grasp the beauty of the problem. It was – thankfully – highlighted from that side by Pengovsky. This enables us to have a go at cracking the latest linguistic nut in a case of »What did Kučan really say?«
Kučan said:

“The arrogance, the audacity that sky-rocketed during the term of this regime and the devaluation of values which negate what we craved in 1990 as we opted for our own state, is such that changes must be made«
And SDS replied:

»This is of course true because the current government is trying hard to prevent that values which negated values of the 90s (communism, Yugoslav centralism, party privileges) would not become the values of today. These actions were supported and are still supported by at least 90% of Slovenians«

Pengovsky claims that SDS simply misunderstood Milan Kučan’s complex sentence, who in this case demonstrated a superior knowledge of Slovene language. But – truth be told – Kučan’s sentence is grammatically not entirely correct. This we can’t really hold against the former president, since he did not put his statement in writing, but was giving a statement directly, off the top of his head and into a camera. Were I in his situation, I’d have troubles formulating a coherent and grammatically correct sentence. But for the sake of it, let’s take a look at the mistakes:

Aroganca in samopašnost, ki sta se razširili pod to vladavino, in razvrednotenje vrednot, ki so negacija tega, kar smo želeli leta 90, ko smo se odločili za svojo državo, so vendarle taki, da so potrebne spremembe.

»Arrogance« and »audacity« are two things, therefore the use of dual is necessary, however, adding »devaluation« makes them three, so use of plural is necessary at the end of the sentence (arrogance and audacity are in Slovene language nouns of feminine gender, while devaluation is neutral, thus in the end use of masculine gender is necessary).
The sentence is grammatically incorrect, but that doesn’t really matter. The question of its interpretation is much more interesting.

SDS claims that Kučan wanted to say something else, but in his evilness he fumbled his words and said exactly what he meant. SDS thus interprets the sentence through Freudian psychoanalysis and says that Kučan’s alleged lapse reveals his subconscious, where his desire imposed itself upon his will. In other words: Kučan’s lapse made him say exactly what he wanted to say.
On the other hand Pengovsky also claims that Kučan said exactly what he thought, it’s just that his argument is based on grammatical analysis rather than psychoanalysis.

Arrogance, audacity and devaluation of values that negate what we wanted in 1990, when we opted for our own state, are such that changes are necessary.

Therefore: Devaluation of values, arrogance and audacity. All of these negate what we wanted in 1990.
The »what we wanted in 1990« part relates to »arrogance«, »audacity« and »devaluation of values« and not just »values« and with this – according to Pengovsky – the sentence is no longer a lapse but rather a wholesome criticism of the ruling administration.

So, how do we correctly interpret this linguistic incident between Milan Kučan and SDS? We can conclude the following:

One: Milan Kučan said what he wanted to say, regardless of the interpretation.

Two: What Milan Kučan said one way or the other unsettles the SDS, regardless of the interpretation, because,

Three: whatever Milan Kučan says, he is lying and manipulating. Whenever a lapse makes him fumble his words and say something truthful, this truth is most likely even more evil than his lies are.

Thus it doesn’t matter whether you subscribe to Pengovsky’s or SDS’s interpretation of Kučan’s statement, the end result is the same: Kučan said exactly what he meant, and what he meant was that it’s time SDS stops running the country.

Language can be so fascinating!

The Art Of Speaking

Yesterday, I hinted at how PM Janša and his SDS place ever greater bets in a gamble remain in power after elections on 21 September. Now they are picking fights with former president Milan Kučan again. Just as a side-note: just as with Laško and Delo, here too Janša is proving that there are some mistakes he simply doesn’t learn from. Fights with Milan Kučan usually ended badly for Janša, but the latter would not let go, and keeps picking fights to the point of becoming silly.

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Former president Milan Kučan in a statement for POP TV (source)

This time around, Janša is acusing Kučan of putting his foot where his mouth is. Namely, in a statement for POP TV, Kučan said that “The arrogance, the audacity that sky-rocketed during the term of this regime and the devaluation of values which negate what we craved in 1990 as we opted for our own state, is such that changes must be made.

Now, read the sentence carefully. I had to employ dr.filomena, the master translator who cracked this one. If anyone’s interested, here is the Slovenian original: “Aroganca in samopašnost, ki se je razširila pod to vladavino, in razvrednotenje vrednot, ki so negacija tega, kar smo želeli leta 90, ko smo se odločili za svojo državo, je vendarle taka, da so potrebne spremembe.”

One’s foot in one’s mouth is not a pretty sight. Especially if we’re talking about a former president whom everyone listens to, regardless of their feelings towards him. And yet the SDS saw this as a pathethic gaffe and decided to take pot shots at the ex-Prez. In a statement, the party said that “Kučan must have wanted to say something else, but his hatred towards those who do not see eye to eye with him made him fumble his words and thus he said that today’s regime is the ‘devaluation of values which negate what we craved in 1990’

Normally, this would be brushed aside, probabbly with the addition of “everyone’s fallible” or something like that. However, things are not that simple. Milan Kučan did not fumble his words. Neither did he put his foot in his mouth. What he did, was show a superior command of Slovene language while the SDS (as per usual) heard only what it wanted to hear and took his words completely out of context.

Namely: Kučan said that changes must be made because of the audacity and the arrogace of the regime and the devalutaion of our values which we opted for in 1990s. It’s there. You just have to read it. People at SDS on the other hand don’t seem to care for the niceties of their mother-tongue. They seem to have only basic understanding of Slovene and so it is no wonder that they misread the sentence.

Sometimes just talking is not enough. One has to know how to speak. And so the debate will now shift to the question “what did Kučan really say”. And this is the sort of fight Kučan was always best at.

Flat Is The New Up

A day later than planned originally (the arrest of Radovan Karadžić is rather more important, no?), we can have a look at a new poll by Ninamedia, ran by POP TV on Sunday last. No big surpises, opposition Social democrats still hold a small lead that, with PM Janša’s SDS coming in close second, while Zares again takes the third spot, with Liberal Democrats and the nationalists around 5,5 percent.

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Results of all polls combined in a single chart

Since there are no dramatic developments in the polls, we can perhaps play with the numbers a bit. For starters, we cam have a a look at Ninamedia’s polls which were taken in the course of the last five months. It is immediately obvious that polls on 26 May and 10 July recorded a rather wide lead by Social democrats (SD) over Janša’s SDS. Mind you, it was not that SD became hugely popular at those particular moments. Spikes in the “don’t know” column tell us that it was rather Janša’s electorate that was undecided on him at that particular time. This again leads us to coclude that PM Janša is fighting very hard to stay above water and keep Borut Pahor witihn range. For Janez Janša, flat is the new up

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Seven Ninamedia polls taken in the last five months

Moving on. Since 4 February we’ve seen twenty-three polls, which pengovsky faithfuly reproduced for your viewing pleasure. What happens if we calculate the average of all results to date? Let’s take a look: Pahor’s Social democrats still remain in the vicinity of 20 %, while SDS lingers around 18 %. But this includes the undecided vote as well. Things get a lot more interesting if we recalculate the average using only pledged votes. With this we also get a better picture of which party will make it across the 4% treshold:

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Average poll results, discarding the undecided vote

Both “big” parties are still close, but differences are greater than before. If we sum up the results of possible coalitions, things get even more interesting: a coalition of SD, Zares and LDS would beat a very broad coalition of SDS, SLS, NSi, SNS and DeSUS by 0.9 percent (32.0% vs. 31.9%). If, however, a more likely coalition of SD, Zares, LDS and DeSUS were created, it would enjoy a healthy 7% lead over the rest of the parties (35.2% vs. 27.9%).

Either way, PM Janez Janša has his work cut out for him. But in his fight to stay afloat he is continously increasing the stakes. Tommorow we’ll see that he picked on former president Milan Kučan again.

Pengovsky’s projection: Things are far from over, but PM Janša will be looking for “september surprise” to make the necesary breakthrough in polls. This might mean marrying Doc Urška, arresting Zoran Janković and/or Boško Šrot or giving some additional concession to one demograhic group or the other. Or any possible combination of the aforementioned. It is becoming increasling apparent that the winner of the elections will go to any lenghts to secure a majority in the parliament and in this respect PM Janša is positioned far worse than the left bloc. Members of the latter (Zares, SD and LDS), however are afraid one of them will jump ship and join Janša in a broad coalition. That’s why rumours are spread from time to time that one the parties is mulling forming a coalition with Janša. Just as SD and Zares before it, LDS is the latest victim of these rumours. The goal, naturally, is to have LDS leadership say in the clearest possible terms that they will not band together with JJ.

Elections 2008 Badge: Reflects the latest poll results.

Data: If anyone feels like tinkering with the data, here is the complete MS Excel file.

Radovan Karadžić Arrested. Finally!

This just in: According to various news reports, Radovan Karadžić, one of Europe’s most wanted men, directly responsible for genocide of Bosnian Muslims in Bosnia-Hercegovina during the 1993-95 war was arrested in Serbia hours ago.

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Bosnian Serb general Ratko Mladic and their political leader Radovan Karadžić (source)

The arrest was confirmed by the office of the President of Serbia Boris Tadić, without giving details. I imagine this is a high-risk game for Serbian leadership as Karadžić and general Ratko Mladić (who remains at large) have quite a following in Serbia and Republic of Srbska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Hopefuly Serbian President Boris Tadić will fare better than the late Zoran Djindjić.

Perhaprs, just perhaps, the wars of Yugoslavia will finally be brought to an end.

EDIT: Reactions from: Belgrade 2.0 (Serbia), Zapisi (Serbia – in cyrilic), Duh koji hoda (Bosnia), Na putu u nepoznato (Bosnia), Comments From Left Field (USA) (JBlog Central (Israel)

Cashing In On The Wrath Of Nature

A series of severe storms struck parts of Slovenia on Sunday, causing extensive damage to housing, crops and forests. It was the latest in a series of severe weather events which have – among other things – collapsed a scaffold in downtown Ljubljana the other day. In short: it’s fun, but don’t bring an umbrella. You might end up like Dorothy.

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photo: BOBO (source)

However, the real fun begins just now, when damage is being assessed all over the country. I’ve had some meagre experience covering this for various media houses and I can tell you that farmers immediately start exaggerating the numbers. The last time I was covering a natural catastrophe of similiar proportions, the numbers went from a fifty million tolars to a hundred billion in a matter of hours, which at that point meant some 12% of the country’s budget.

Today, we are observing a similar phenomenon: while the damage reports are still being compiled, numbers are increasing exponentially. In a single TV piece combined claims of up to 50 milion euros were made. I realize there was indeed some extensive damage and that people’s lives were shattered, but what I’m bothered by is the fact that everyone is paying attention to the damage in the woods and fields while almost nothing is being said about families whose houses have lost roofs and even suffered structural damage.

But they are probably insured, which cannot be said about farmers and their produce. As farmers are a special breed in Slovenia and enjoy protection not unlike their French counterparts, they expect the state to bail them out yet again. And so they beef up their damage reports, already feeling the fibre of the fabric of a fistful of euros.

And so we will see the usual Peasant Gambit: In the spring it’s usually frost. Damages are repaid. In the summer, storms and hail. Damages are repaid again. In autumn, floods. Guess what happens. And then, as the year’s end approaches, farmers are clammoring about what a quality product they have this year and that the market is being infested by low-cost produce from Albania, Macedonia, Spain and Greece and that they cannot compete with such low prices. And so the state bails them out again, buying their product off them for an above-market price. Just to keep them happy.

Hell, I’m in the wrong business…

Is The Tide Turning?

We’ve had two new polls in the last week here, each of them showing a radically different performance by the two top-tier parties. On 10 July we’ve had a Nimamedia poll (commissioned my Mladina weekly), which more or less echoed results of most previous polls by different pollsters (i.e.: Social democrats take the top spot, Janša’s SDS comes in second, while LDS, Zares and occasionaly the nationalists battle it out for bronze).

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However, only a day later a poll a government-commissioned poll done by Parsifal Group showed a radically different result – SDS taking the top spot with 20,4 percent of the decided vote and SD coming in second with a “mere” 13,2 percent. Somewhat indicatively, though, both polls are surprisingly similar in recording the vote of the smaller parties. Call me paranoid, but I smell a rat :mrgreen:

Anyways, neglecting the fact that we are dealing with a poll made and paid for by the government, two things become almost immediately visible:

One: even a government poll projects that a totally left-wing coalition (SD, LDS, Zares, DeSUS) will get as much votes (27%) as a totally right-wing coalition (SDS, SLS, NSi, SNS – 27,3). If we add Lipa and its 0,8 percent of the vore to the left-wing bloc, just for argument’s sake (I’m not saying they are left-wing), then the left bloc prevails again.

Two: According to government’s own poll, repeating the election result of 2004 (i.e.: forming a winning coalition) can only be possible with Zmago Jelinčič’s nationalists onboard. Then and only then can the existing coalition (SDS, NSi, SLS, DeSUS) with the addition of SNS form a rather comfortable if uneasy majority.

All of the above, however, must be taken cum grano salis. Polls commisioned by the government have a tendency to skew reality much beyond the acceptable and one could safely venture to say that the reality is much grimmer for the government of Janez Janša

Pengovsky’s projection: Despite the short relief the lates poll might provide to for the right bloc, it should actually sound general quarters, red alert, defcon 1 and whatever states of emergency there are. Namely, if your own pollsters can’t plausibly put you well ahead in the polls, then nothing will. So we will quite possibly see the Prime Minister venture more and more into the nationalistic and overly-populistic field of rhetoric, trying to chip off SNS as many votes as possible. However, one extremely undesired sideefect is Zmago Jelinčič thus becoming ever more acceptable for the centrist vote. Should Janša decide to go down that road and co-opt Jelinčič and his voters, he will pay dearly in a future not very far. But the main question remains: is the tide turning? Not for now. When other polls corroborate results of Pasifal, then we can start talking….

Elections 2008 Badge: Will be updaed during the day. The right bloc takes 56 percent of the vote this time around.

Poll data: If anyone feels like it, here is an MS Excel file complete with all the polling data and charts. It includes almost every published poll from February ’08 until present.

A Pint Of Tycoon

Whatever you may think of Boško Šrot, CEO and the not-so-newly minted owner of Laško Brewery, one has to admit that the guy (or – more broadly speaking – people at Laško) managed to retain a sense of humour in spite of PM Janša breathing down his neck. During last weekend’s Pivo in Cvetje (Beer and Flowers) festivites held in the town of Laško for the 44th year running, the brewery cococted a special, Tycoon beer.

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The leaflet reads: How to catch a tycoon: 1. Stir it up with your money. 2. Lure it out by pulling the handle. 3. Catch it in your glass.

Very tongue-in-cheek, although I wasn’t there so I can’t really tell you wheter Tycoon Beer is either a buffed-up or watered-down version of Laško beer. We’ll see if good spirits remain with Boško Šrot come September, though…

BTW: more polls coming your way tomorrow