Muddy Hollows got its knickers in a twist yesterday as recordings started leaking out of people in the Big Bird’s orbit saying impolitic things about other people in his orbit. For example, Dominika Švarc Pipan offhandedly suggesting at things that could be interpreted as corrupt and/or criminal. Which is awkward, to say the least. It is also lost on precisely no-one that these things are coming out ten days before the election. It is kind of like an October surprise, only in March.
For all the brouhaha that this story is attempting to generate – and for the time being, it is mostly right-wing spin doctors who are pretend-clutching their pearls over this – it is important to see what the story is not. This is not about high-ranking government officials asking for bribes or admitting to criminal activities. It is GS-adjacent influence peddlers talking shit about their competition and brandishing their own credentials. At least for now.
Some might say that a 10,000 character blogpost on a campaign trick might be excessive. And some might be right. But hey, this is what this blog is all about, so if you think pengovsky should have a coffee or two, feel free to buy him a couple at this link. And if you already have, cheers! Coffee, amirite?
Timing is everything
For the time being, there are two three major batches of leaks. The first one were audio recordings of former GS secretary general and attack dog Vesna Vuković. The second one consitst video recordings of former minister of justice and wannabe lobbyist Dominika Švarc Pipan. And while it is tempting to go into the weeds of what was said and what is inferred from the recordings, we should look at the bigger picture first.
(After this post was written but before it was published, there’s also been a third batch leaked, this one including celebrity lawyer Nina Zidar Klemenčič. Pengovsky is not sure why she is included as she is definitely not in an inner Golob orbit. )
As of this post, Slovenian parliamentary election is ten days away. Call it E-10 days. Suddenly, parties that spent the last six months sitting on their asses and waging some sort of political trench warfare, are running out of time if they are to end up on top. But as static as the public opinion polls were over the last months, things have started changing in the last couple of days.
Pengovsky was in the middle of writing a separate blogpost on this (and will still do so, only later). But the key takeaways are that GS closed the gap to SDS, Levica has separated from the rest of the pack and is now polling where Anže Logar’s Demokrati used to. They, in turn have fallen back and are now rubbing shoulders with NSi, whereas Vladimir Prebilič is getting more and more irrelevant. If the trend continues, his Prerod will not even make the 1% financing threshold.
Action/Reaction
Point being that there is movement in the polls, and that it broadly favours the left-liberal bloc. Enter Newton’s Third Law. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction,
How these recordings were madeand/or obtained remains a bit of a mystery. There is ample room for speculation and conspiracy theories (see below), but apparently things are bad enough that the cops got involved.
Slightly more is known about the case of Dominika Švarc Pipan. She claims that she was approached by a Vienna-based firm who wanted to talk about some sort of investment in data centres in Slovenia. As former senior government officials are useful sources of information and can be, well, commissioned to advocate a certain viewpoint or business interest. Which is why Dominika Švarc Pipan – with ample time on her hands – went to an all-expences-paid business lunch in the former imperial capital.
The other thing former senior government officials like is the sound of their own voice. Admittedly, so do bloggers and podcasters, but generally they are not former senior government officials (unless you’re Dan Bongino, but pengovsky digresses.) At any rate, it was probably fairly easy to get Dominika Švarc Pipan to talk turkey.
And even though it apparently dawned on her by the time of the follow-up meeting that this investment firm might be a bit shady, she went in for seconds and talked some more, regardless. Because, you know, the sound of one’s own voice and whatnot. And of course it’s kind of hard to say no after you’ve said yes the first time. Pengovsky is sure there’s a lesson in there somewhere.
Zoran Thaler would like a word
At any rate, Dominika Švarc Pipan talked and and talked, unaware that she was being recorded the whole time. Maybe both readers will remember a similar incident fifteen years ago, when The Sunday Times caught then-MEP Zoran Thaler on tape in a similar fashion. Unlike DŠP, who merely talked shit, Thaler actually incriminated himself back then and was had to resign.
But other than the concealed-camera-on-table, the other parallel between Thaler and Švarc Pipan is that both were opportunistic SD picks. Which just goes to show that the SD will go to bed with anyone, if it suits their immediate needs. Surely, there is a lesson in there somewhere as well. But pengovsky digresses again…
That said, the site where these videos are published directly references the Thaler thing. This suggests someone did their homework. Moreover, the company that was a front for Dominika Švarc Pipan’s lunch seems to have been a legitimately registered business, with a website that was active for several years, only to have been deactivated this morning. This in turn suggests the whole thing was run at least semi-professionally, with resources that are outside the reach of Slovenian political parties.
All the more so, when one considers the fact that DŠP videos seem to be only the first of many leaks. The site features several inactive sections, presumably placeholders for future releases.
Thus, pengovsky expects to see more people come forward in the next couple of days, hat in hand, admitting to their stupidity and recklessness. It is also quite possible that future releases will be much more damaging than this episode with Dominika Švarc Pipan, both to these individuals personally and to the government as a whole.
Motive yes, but opportunity?
So, presumably, the coalition spin-doctors and PR foot-soldiers are already out in force, trying to get ahead of the various stories breaking. Because while embarrassing and possibly damaging on a personal and career level, it is beyond obvious that the main goal here is to stop to the surge in polls the coalition parties are experiencing.
Which answers the question of who is ultimate beneficiary of these sting operations: the opposition in general and the largest opposition party specifically. The SDS has the mindset, experience and contacts to organise and support a stunt like this. But while the Party has the motive, it probably didn’t have the opportunity, nor did it have the means.
You see, for all the infamy of SDS and Janša connections in the security apparatus, their reach has been severely degraded over the years. No longer are there two parallel state security structures in this sorry little excuse for a country, one loyal to whatever government is in power, and the other always loyal to Janša. At the very least, the two are not comparable anymore.
Moreover, the Party itself is turning more and more into a comedic cult of personality, drunk on their own Kool-Aid and so it is at least possible that Janša and SDS are just pawns in this story. Very enthusiastic pawns, but pawns nevertheless.
Election interference
So, who framed Dominika Švarc Pipan? If pengovsky were to put on a tin-foil hat, he could see several potential benefactors of this op.
There’s Russia, obviously. The Moscow Madman and his entire spy network HAVE been hard at work in various EU countries to try and derail elections, subvert institutions and sow doubt into democracy in general. Could they achieve this with Janša in power? By all means. I mean, they do have a history of supporting far-right parties all over the EU.
More importantly they’ve recently sent an expedition to Hungary, to help the sinking fortunes of Janša’s one-time Saviour And Lord Protector, a certain Órban Viktor. And sure enough, Orban’s arch-rival Péter Magyar publicly warned that several of his close aides will be subject to damaging leaks, be it fabricated or manipulated. So, similar MO. Moreover, several pro-Russian puppets in Slovenia have been low-key cumming over the DŠP shitstorm, so… maybe it was the Russkies?
But then again, Janša is staunchly pro-Ukraine, and has been from the start, in direct opposition to other fellow European far-right leaders. In fact, Vova might find that the current left-liberal coalition in Muddy Hollows, even though it is vehemently pro-Zelensky, could be persuaded to jump at any and all peace initiatives, as implausible as they may be.
Flooding the zone with shit
So, why waste resources, when possible outcomes are dubious at best? Besides, there’s more than enough evidence that FSB or whoever is really running Russian foreign operations these days, already have their people in Muddy Hollows.
Next up are the Americans. More importantly, the Bannon wing of the MAGA movement. Sure, the US embassy in Ljubljana has been known on occasion to publicly opine on the democratic process in Slovenia. But it was Flood-The-Zone-With-Shit Steve, who openly courted far-right parties all over the EU.
And even if his antics were never officially sanctioned (and there’s word on the street that the relations between Ljubljana and Washington are far better than either side lets on), Bannon could still freelance a bit. Especially now that Chief Brexiteer is having an yet another crisis and Marine Le Pen is on the brink of being barred from public office.
So, maybe this is a MAGA related thing. After all, MAGA and the Party are more than a little sympatico.
Being Mossaded upon
Or maybe it’s Janša’s friends in the Middle East. The Glorious Leader is probably the staunchest ally Israel has in Muddy Hollows. And Bibi Netanyahu would probably be keen to have a more militant voice advocating for him in the EU. After all, who could forget Israeli foreign minister, back when Slovenia was about to recognise Palestine, when he had a hissy fit and tagged Janša on Twix.
But if it was the Israelis, then it sure as fuck wasn’t Mossad. Because as we all know, if Mossad is after you, you are going to be Mossaded upon. They will then plausibly deny it was them while wearing T-shirts saying “yep, it was definitely us”.
So, take your pick. And change your password while you’re at it. It could have been just a coincidence, but apparently there was an attempt at one of pengovsky’s online accounts this morning. Fun times.
Vesna Vuković knows where the bodies are buried
Well. 9,000 characters in and pengovsky still didn’t discuss what Dominika Švarc Pipan actually said in those videos. And here’s the thing: she didn’t say all that much. Other than some name-dropping, very little a careful observer of the Muddy Hollows political cesspool (such as this humble blogger) could not have told you.
So, while Dominika Švarc Pipan was trying to peddle influence, the people running the operation were looking for juicy quotes. And fuck me sideways, did she provide. Nothing groundbreaking, but that wasn’t really the point.
The goal here was to create the notion that the current Slovenian government is a hellish pit of political and economic corruption run by the Deep State. And just to make sure the message got across, the editing of the videos is clearly non linear, with more juicy parts of the conversation moved to beginning, and such. This edit job wasn’t meant to stand the test of time. It just needs to stand for a week or so.
Which finally brings to the recordings of Vesna Vuković. In light of today’s banger of a story, these have taken a back seat, but are on the whole potentially much more damaging, as she is taking pot-shots at every high-profile GS politician who gives the party an appearance of an actual, you know, political party.
Temu Malcolm Tucker
For example, the releases to date (and surely, there will be others) are obviously aimed at driving a wedge between the Apex Avian, Alenka Bratušek and Urška Klakočar Zupančič. Whether or not anything Vuković says in there is true is, obviously, of secondary.
The goal is to put Golob on the back foot, make Bratušek deal with claims of skimming money from the Divača-Koper railway project and isolate UKZ from the rest of the party via claims that she was getting off-the-book party funds before she ran for office. None of this has to be true to be damaging. It just needs to resonate enough.
The thing is that Vuković is not someone whom Golob can simply throw under the bus. She has been at the Big Bird’s side from the beginning and knows where the metaphorical bodies are buried. The fact that she was removed official government and party positions in the wake of the Bobnar Affair is probably about as far as she is willing to go.
So even though in these audio recordings she comes across as Temu Malcolm Tucker, she will probably suffer no real consequences, leaving he party to clean up any other way they can.
So far, the GS is brushing things off, first by claiming the audio was deep-faked and when that didn’t fly, that it was edited in a manipulative way. Which it probably was, but that doesn’t mean the party of Robert Golob won’t have some tough questions to answer in the next few days.
A look at the polls will tell whether they did a good job of it.
