For an election campaign that is as bereft of ideas asthat parrot was of life, things are both surprisingly active in Muddy Hollows these days. Or maybe it is precisely because of that, as the political class needs to be seen doing something. Even if it all amounts to practically nothing.
This blogger is a couple of days late with this post because there were things to see, people to do and because adulting is hard in general. But there’s also the fact that public opinion polls are remarkably stable and have been for a while. With less than a month to go, it is now beyond obvious that this is a base-only campaign.
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Agreement among pollsters
This is not to say that this sorry little excuse for a country has never seen a base-only campaign. Janez Janša’s SDS, for example, has this tactic down pat, for example. Even if they ended up developing it more by accident than by design. What is new this time around, is that fucking everyone is doing it. At the same time.
Regardless of which pollster one takes, the placement is more or less the same. SDS is leading the pack, usually just north of 20% support, with GS trailing just behind, usually in high teens or low twenties.
Then, nothing for a very long time, followed by everyone else jam-packed below 8 percent of support. Specifically, there are six, seven parties squeezed into the small interval between the apparent single-digit ceiling and the four-percent threshold they need to pass to win seats in parliament.
It will be a bloodbath and even a minor dip or surge in the turnout of any party’s voters could mean the difference between fuck, yeah! and fuck off! on election night. No wonder everyone is catering to their own bases, with very little attempts to branch out.
Base-only campaign
Either reader might think that given so much competition and so little margin of error, parties would be keen to provide actual rational reasons to vote for them. Maybe even hint at specific policy planks. But either reader would also be dead wrong, of course.
Sure, there are platforms and campaign manifestos. But for the most part they are either more red meat using longer words, or they look like a fucking brainstorming session that nobody bothered to edit for clarity (I’m looking at you, SD).
Either way, these things fucking useless to the average voter. For as messy as they are, they will get even messier if, and when their party of choice enters coalition negotiations. But in order to get there, said party needs to pass the 4% threshold first.
Which brings us to the key dynamic/vicious circle of this electoral cycle. The path to success on 22 March will lay in getting the vote out by any means possible. To do that in an environment where there is already little movement in the polls (and where manifestos are worth jack shit), the base must be kept in a state of permanent fervour. Which further diminishes any chance of movement in the polls. That in turn requires even more rage-baiting. Which requires… Well, you get the point.
Insta-dram-a
Unless, of course, there’s a campaign crash-out, either by ways of a party running out of red meat/sugar/Colombian marching powder for their masses, or by a significant blunder that gets blown further out of proportion. And lacking any real substance, this appear to be the only campaign game in town right now.
Over the weekend, things started happening to Instagram accounts of Gibanje Svoboda and The Apex Avian that their administrators didn’t like and locked the profiles as a precaution. Apparently, there was a large influx of non-genuine followers, which GS social media managers interpreted as a coordinated attempt to game the algorithm and push down the GS and Golob accounts. At some point a local attention whore influencer Aleksandar Repić got in on the act and sicced his followers on one of GS Instagram polls. And after GS raised a stink about fake followers, Repić raised a couterstink and accused GS of deleting comments made by real people.
Which was all the cue the right wing needed to start claiming that GS online campaign is like its governing style: full of shit. They joined in on that comment storm with gusto and tried to transfer it into their Twitter bubble, too.
But when GS very smartly leaned into the story and doubled down on both the interpretation and the burek-related content which apparently sparked this whole clusterfuck, the rightwing commentariat quickly lost its collective smirk.
The Streissand Effect
Their IG content might well be cringe (and really, OMG!), but GS refused to be bullied or memed out of social media existence. And when Repić was arrested on an unrelated charge (apparently, in addition to running a small OnlyFans porn content farm, he also does some light extortion on the side), the commentariat quickly pivoted from “haha, GS can’t do social media for shit” to “GS is abusing the repressive apparatus to settle petty campaign issues”.
So, which is it, guys? Either GS is a bunch of incompetent insignificunts, or they are the big bad crew of state pirates who will rain hell if you as much as look at them wrong.
But while the right-wing faithful are trying to convince themselves and their bubble that GS can be both at the same time, depending on their needs, the only real-world effect of this is that GS Instagram views went up. Which effectively means that the right did GS promotional work for them. Maybe they should at least bill GS for it. This time around the Streissand Effect worked very much in GS’s favour and they are milking it for all its worth.
That said, this whole development should worry at least two groups of people, for two different sets of reasons: the NSi and Anže Logar’s Democrats.
The fact that the cops are not fucking about and will apparently do their work regardless of campaign season should really worry the NSi.
Fuck around and KNOVS out
Namely, its current and former leader as well as two other NSi MPs are neck-deep in a fairly serious scandal, where they are facing criminal charges for alleged abuse of power. Namely, back in late 2023, Jernej Vrtovec, Matej Tonin, Jožef Horvat and Janez Žakelj, all members of KNOVS (parliamentary intelligence oversight committee) made a surprise inspection of the police SIGINT facilities. While there, they demanded to know if certain phone numbers were being wiretapped. And these just happened to include other high lever NSi personnel, themselves targets of other criminal investigations.
The cops saw this as impeding active investigations, blew their stack and took the case to the prosecution. In turn, the state prosecution launched an investigation and filed abuse-of-office charges against the four MPs about two weeks ago.
So, at this time, the NSi Four Amigos are in comparatively deeper shit than the pimping extortionist influencer. Must be a funny feeling.
The other person dealing with a continuous knot in their stomach is probably Anže Logar. You see, one of the pre-requisites for running a base-only campaign is, well, having a base. And Logar decidedly does not have a base.
Lacking a base
In fact, his entire shtick is to present himself as the “other guy”, and hoping there are enough disgruntled GS and SDS voters to push him over the parliamentary threshold.
So far, the approach seems to be working. Unlike Vladimir Prebilič, who doesn’t seem capable of running anything that would resemble an actual campaign, Logar and his ilk are systematically at it.
The way things stand now, Anže Logar is poised to become the kingmaker in Muddy Hollows. But, as pengovsky is fond of remarking, a week in politics is a long time. And maintaining this state of things might well prove challenging for the erstwhile SDS wonderboy.
Sure, predictions are hard, especially about the future. But it is a long way from a disgruntled voter in an opinion survey to an actual voter changing their allegiance at the ballot box. Logar’s worst nightmare is his support evaporing as voting day approaches, so he is desperate to lock it in right now. Somehow.
Especially since the Glorious Leader realised that he needs to be seen in public, not just in social media photo ops. Sure, non-Party media might be the enemies of the people (at least Janša’s people), but they do wield plenty of influence. Which is why the Glorious Leader changed course and graced POP TV with his presence in a debate this week, after it became apparent that Logar is, in fact, making inroads into SDS electorate.
Party like it’s 2018
That said, Janša playing defence now is bad news for Logar later. Heavy-rimmed specs, designed to project authority and control, will only get him so far. Fact of the matter is that bruh still has no rizz. And as the youngsters say these days, that’s a bit of a skill issue.
Experience shows that in campaigns as bereft of substance as this one is, the real action is likely to take place in the last two weeks before the vote. Which is still some time away. And seeing how as just about everyone has been preparing for this election for the last eighteen months, there is more than a little irony in them acting like they can’t wait for this to be over.
If all of this reminds you of the 2018 parliamentary election, well, you’re not alone.
