Month: February 2008

Nada

Friday last Slovene parliament voted on a rather important piece of legislation – the regions. Non-Slovene regulars to this puny little blog have heard of read of Štajerska, Primorska, Dolenjska, Gorenjska, Prekmurje, and other Slovene regions. But speaking from a constitutional point of view Slovenia never had regions – only municipalities (the so called first layer of self-government). Two hundred and ten of them.

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The proposed division into regions which was not to be (source)

But as the drive for municipalities got out of hand, more and more people realized that a further division on a new level is needed, which brings us to regions. But as they were not created simultaneously with municipalities the latter were given enormous powers which they are unwilling to relinquish them in favour of regions. For example: Municipality of Sveti Miklavž na Dravskem polju which boasts some 5900 individuals (a tenth of whom are unemployed) has exactly the same powers as the City of Ljubljana (pop. 270.000), meaning that it can establish schools, primary health care, fire and civil defence, it has its own municipal council, municipal government, et cetera…

Out of 210 Slovene municipalities 198 are unable to sustain themselves which means that the state chips in on a regular basis (all municipalities get state funds, but some disproportionally more than others). All the more so if the mayor happens to be an MP as well which is the case with quite a few Slovene members of parliament. Especially they are vigorously opposed to creation of regions as it would most likely cost them their seat in the parliament. You know – no money, no funny. And if they don’t bring the dough no more, the people gonna find themselves someone who do…

So passing the legislation on regions is nearly impossible in Slovenia as long as mayors can also serve as MPs and vice versa.

Having said that, however, Prime Minister Janez Janša knew that and still pressed on with the legislation which didn’t even enjoy the support of all ministers (minister for civil service was vigorously opposed). He pressed on and failed. Which is no disaster unto itself. Regions can wait. The only problem is that this was the last of the “big” project of Janez Janša and his government. He just fired his last usable round of political ammo and missed, which brings the total sum of his four years in office to a complete zero.

Want a rundown?

  • He ran on a ticket of radical neo-liberal reforms and all he could manage was a reduced tax scale because the unions went apeshit. Ass-whooping numero un.
  • He tried to take Ljubljana in local elections by backing France Arhar but people owerwhelmingly voted for Zoran Janković. Ass-whooping numero dos.
  • He tried to subjugate the media and instead Laško snacthed Delo and Večer from him. Ass-whooping numero tres.
  • He tried to get his candidate elected in presidential elections but the people went for left-wing Danilo Türk. Ass-whooping cuatro.
  • He made a big show of “a new start” in relations between Slovenia and Croatia, but Croatia presented him with an extended maritime area of control. Ass-whooping numero cinco.
  • He boasted of high GDP growth (even sans reforms) but got us higher inflation which ain’t going away even when the growth cools dows. Ass-whooping numero seis.
  • He vehemently started presiding over the EU but didn’t even last a week without screwing up and having Potrugese PM slam him over a careless remark. Ass-whooping numero sete.
  • And now he proposed legislation on regions, but crashed and burned magnificently in the parliament. Ass-whooping supreme (number eight, if you’re still keeping count)

So, the total result of Janša’s first term in office thusfar (some eight months before the elections) is: Zero. Zilch. Niente. Nothing. Nada.

Delo Poll: Janša trailing Pahor, both slump

Delo daily published a public opinion poll yesterday showing opposition Social Democrats (led by Borut Pahor) in the lead with 22,2%, whereas the ruling Slovene Democratic Party (led by PM Janša) are trailing at 17,5 %. Gregor Golobič‘s Zares take third place with 10,1 %, while LDS proper slumped to 4,0 %.
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This is the second month in a row Delo‘s pollsters recorded a slump in SD’s rating which could start spelling trouble for Borut Pahor as he is widely viewed as the only real challenger to Janez Janša’s ambitions to continue as the top dog in this country. This becomes all the more apparent if we take into account the fact that Janša’s SDS did slump but nowhere near as much as SD. However, at a first glance it seems that most of SD’s “missing” support went into the “don’t know” column, perhaps transferring slightly to Zares as well. Namely, the latter recorded a sharp rise from previous polls, which cannot be acounted for just with a sharp drop in LDS’s support (Zares being primarily formed by renegade LDS members).

As the bar for entering the parliament is set at 4%, the results of the poll suggest that predominantly Catholic Nova Slovenia (N.Si), the Pensioner’s Party (DeSUS) and Lipa (newly formed renegades from Jeličič’s Natoinal party) will not make it past the post. Personally I think this is higly unlikely (with the possible exception of Lipa), as all of the smaller parties draw on a highly dispersed pool of voters which is a bit more difficult to detect with a sample poll.

While 4,0 percent is a bit of a disappointment for LDS, this can and probably will change for the better, most likely at the expense of Zares which (save a terrible faux pas) seems set on comfortably making it to the parliament. Furthermore Jelinčič’s nationalists seem to have suffered from a split with Saško Peče’s Lipa, although the latter apparently did not pick up SNS‘s missing votes. And – last but not least – Slovene People’s Party (SLS) can build on the 4,9 percent it got this time around, although the recent switch at the helm of the party apparently failed to generate support on its own.

Pengovsky’s projection: SD will continue the downward trend for another month or two, while smaller coalition parties (SLS and DeSUS) take over the stage as they will be vigorously opposing possible sale of Slovene Telecom and Triglav Insurance, thus threatning stability of Janša’s coalition – mostly to get additional press coverage and stir up some more shit. LDS will have to come up with an ingenious ploy to drum up additional support, but the same goes for Zares which cannot break into the Mipos Dance of Joy yet as its support is much to wobbly at this time. N.Si will seem to go below radar, but due to its specific voter base this will mostly mean securing some additional grass-roots support. The endgame continues.