Robert Golob Wins Second Election In A Row

In the end, Robert Golob and Gibanje Svoboda eked out a narrow victory in the parliamentary election in Slovenia. But with SDS of Janez Janša tight on his ass, Muddy Hollows is in for a protracted period of coalition building that will likely (but not necessarily) the Big Bird continuing as PM, albeit with a shakier coalition.

Assuming, of course, that the new parliament gets constituted at all. Namely the moment he lost the lead, Janez Janša started claiming voting and counting irregulairites. Which means that the next few weeks will be fucking intense.

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The turnout. Again.

pengovsky will do deeper dives on the result of the Sunday vote over the coming days and weeks. The main takeaway, however is the fact that Robert Golob seems poised to be the first Slovenian PM to repeat a term since the late, great Janez Drnovšek. But equally important is the turnout. With 69.32% it is just shy of the 2022 number. And that’s before the absentee ballots were counted.

You can get detailed results here but the broad outline is as follows. GS got 29 seats, SDS 28, NSi 9, SD and Demokrati 6, and Levica and Resnica 5 each. And just as seat count is close, so too are the actual numbers. In fact, it impossible to overstate just how close this election was.

Robert Golob almost didn’t make it

With 99.85% of votes counted (again, absentee and overseas ballots), SD and Demokrati are 93 votes apart. Levica is a measly 563 votes ahead of Resnica. And while GS seems to have a comparatively comfortable lead over SDS with about 7500 votes, the senior coalition party overtook the senior opposition party only after more than 90% of the vote was already counted.

In fact, the person who clinched the victory for GS was Apex Avian personally. For much of the night he wasn’t making the parliamentary cut (complex math, don’t ask). It was only after all the votes he got pushed him over the threshold in his voting unit did GS win that extra parliamentary seat over SDS.

But equally impressive was the bodycount this election demanded. Anže Logar and Eva Irgl, both leading Demokrati figures, did not get the nod. Neither did Speaker Urška Klakočar Zupančič, prominent GS defector to SD ranks Mojca Šetinc Pašek, nor former Levica parliamentary group leader Matej Tašner Vatovec who shocked everyone when he left the party for – predictably – the SD.

Resnica huffing and puffing

Parties who gained the most last night were – obviously – Resnica and NSi. The latter outperformed expectations and ended up where the pollsters put either Levica or Demokrati. Netting his party one MP more than their current crop, Jernej Vrtovec just might have proved his mettle as party leader, even though the result is a group effort of NSi, SLS and Focus.

Resnica on the other hand, probably surprised themselves, too. While making it past the 4% parliamentary threshold was always on the cards for them in this cycle, breaking the 5% barrier is a bit of a shocker. And party chief Zoran Stevanović wasted no time in puffing his chest and making unreasonable demands if he is to join any future coalition.

But by demanding finance, foreign and interior ministries, Stevo might have already taken himself out of the equation, because settling for less would make him look weak and prone to horsetrading. Which is what politics is mostly about at this stage just after the election, but he doesn’t know that yet. And when he inevitably won’t deliver, his base might start asking questions.

Which brings us to what the future coalition will look like.

Broad coalition vs. contested legitimacy

As Demokrati leaderhship didn’t make parliament, Anže Logar and Eva Irgl have a huge incentive to join the next coalition of Robert Golob. And for his part, the Big Bird already started signalling that he is ready to reach across the aisle. He did so by saying that he is willing to collaborate with all democratic parties and later adding that this excludes Janša and SDS. But he also started using language his potential coalition partners from left and right are comfortable with.

Talking about housing and health (key Levica talking points) but also about entrepreneurs, economic development and growth (things Demokrati and NSi have the feelz for). He also blabbed something about sovereignty, which is a word Zoran Stevanović likes to use, even though he probably doesn’t really knows what it means.

So, on one hand, Robert Golob has already signaled that he is willing to build a broad coalition which – at least on paper – would have more than just a minimum majority. On the other hand, Janez Janša is looking to actively undermine the legitimacy of the vote and is already talking about recounts and the need for a new election. Despite the near-historic turnout.

And even if Muddy Hollows avoids Florida 2000, Stop The Steal and January 6, the next few weeks are going to be pretty hectic.