European Union | SLEEPING WITH PENGOVSKY

Meanwhile, In Greece…

While Slovenia is gearing up for the official launch of the election campaign this Friday, shit is brewing in Greece. OK, that’s hardly news, but pengovsky was all like 😯 when he saw tweets about the Greek Army General Staff being axed overnight by the government of George Papandreou.

Not a pretty picture (source)

A classic of the 20th century, replacing the top brass of a country’s army translated into “deep shit”. When JFK was being cornered into Bay of Pigs part deux during the Cuban missile crisis, he apparently at one point mulled replacing the entire Joint Chiefs of Staff, but then chose not to do it, because it would mean that a) he doesn’t control the army or, worse, b) there was an attempted coup. Either way, a message he didn’t want to send to the Soviet Union.

Years ago, Croatian president Stipe Mesić by ways of presidential decree retired several top generals of the Croatian army in one big swoop. It soon emerged that the generals involved were openly opposing the president (their commander in chief) and took it upon themselves to “protect the truth of the Homeland War [the 1992-95 war in Croatia]”.

And of course, there’s Turkey, where every so often in the 20th century the Army, seeing itself as the protector of the secular (and semi-autocratic) state, would take the power, ostensibly to keep down the islamists. It was only last year that the government held 40 generals over rumours of an attempted coup.

Turkey and Croatia (both aspiring to become EU members) aside, it should be noted that Greece, Spain and Portugal were, until couple of decades ago, full-fledged military dicatorships and their entry into the EU was one of the ways to keep the then-fledling democracies – well – democratic. One can hardly imagine a general sitting in Brussels, confabulating with the likes of the British Prime Minister, Italian Presidente del Consiglio dei Ministri or the German Bundeskanzler… Oh, wait… shit…

Anyways, we’re not there yet. But axing top military brass in the middle of what is without a doubt the deepest political, economic and social crisis Europe is facing since the 1930s is bad juju. The way pengovsky sees it, there are three options:

1) G-Pap had credible info that shit was brewing within the military and a coup was barely prevented (there’s circumstantial evidence to support the theory)

2) The Prime Minister, who is barely holding on to power, will do anything to prevent elections which would undoubtedly remove him from power, including declare martial law (there’s circumstantial evidence to support that theory as well)

3) This is nothing more than a scare-tactic, reminding Greeks of the days of being ruled by military junta and hoping they’d rather support yet another austerity plan than let everything fall to pieces and let some trigger-happy moron come to power. There’s circumstantial evidence to support that theory as well.

None of the above is agreeable. Options One and Two are especially scary, because they show that Greece and indeed much of Europe is on the doorstep of re-visiting its not-so-distant and very dark past. Option three is only marginally better, in the sense that we’re not on the brink yet. But no one seems to know how to turn back.

The moment military is in the game one way or another in any European country, general alarms should ring throughout the continent. The thing is, however, most modern-day EU leaders have a hearing problem. Time to stock up on toilet paper and spam, I guess…

Jay-Z And 99 Problems

For the umpteenth time, Slovene media is rife with speculation whether Ljubljana mayor Zoran Janković will enter the electoral race and run against Janez Janša for the position of Prime Minister. More than one media outlet quoted “reliable sources” saying that mayor Janković is being pressed by behind-the-scenes power brokers to go head-to-head against Janša in what is being described as a last-ditch attempt to prevent the victory of SDS and its leader. Those same outlets go on to report that Janković is still considering his move and is having pollsters survey the terrain before making a final call on the issue. The general interpretation is that if Janković were to run for PM, he’d unite the parties of the political left just enough to present a viable alternative to Janša who at this time looks poised to win the elections and that – the argument goes – is the political left’s last, best chance of survival. There’s only one problem – it’s all bollocks.

Zoran Janković thinking long and hard (source: The Firm™)

Well, not the fact that Janković is being coaxed into announcing the PM bid – that is more or less true. What is ultimately flawed is the logic behind it. At the moment, the political left in Slovenia is in tatters, more or less. The general and specific animosity that has built up between leaders on the left as well as between rank-and-file party members of leftist parties all but precludes any sort of meaningful cooperation between them. There’s simply too much bad blood. If Zoran Janković were to enter the race, he’d have to mend the fences on the left first. One of the many cases in point being the Facebook status of SD‘s secretary general (and by extent the party’s top operative) Uroš Jauševec which said “The dice has been cast… Jay-Z [Janković] is entering the race… to destroy the left”. The digital Slovenia of course went ape-shit within minutes and all of a sudden it seemed as if the industrious mayor of Ljubljana did indeed make the call. Only, he didn’t.

Jay-Z

Janković is, of course, under media siege these days. Journos are following him around, looking for subtle hints and indirect signs that would point one way or the other. Or, to be more precise, they’re operating under the assumption he will enter the race and are hoping to break the story first. But Janković doesn’t do subtle. He readily admits that he is considering running for PM but that he hasn’t come to a decision yet. Even more, he said time and again that he will let all media outlets know at the same time. Which means a press conference (if he chooses to run) or a statement to the press (if he chooses not to). It’s no use chasing the man around town and trying to pick up hints.

In all honesty, the case for Janković entering the parliamentary election race is flimsy at best. OK, so perhaps Janković is the last, best hope to prevent the end of the world which – as those who urge Janković to run – would ensue if Janez Janša came to power once again. Janša’s economic policies left a lot to be desired when he was in power and those which are described in his party’s draft programme are no better (in a nutshell: lowering taxes, curbing public spending and increasing productivity at the same time. It doesn’t compute). If his track record is anything to go by, Janša in power again means a lot of meddling with the media and generally implementing pre-modern concepts of the Homeland. But does that warrant throwing everything the left has… eeer… left into the battle (and that’s not much to being with)? No.

(Ninety-)Nine problems

Janković’s political position is more than cosy. He enjoys an undisputed majority in the Ljubjana City Council and more often than not does what ever the fuck he pleases. This also enables him to pick his own team, something he would most likely want to do if he were to win national elections. Problem is, there’s no such luxury on the national level. If Jay-Z were to run, however, he’d have a plethora of problems to solve. Maybe not exactly ninety-nine problems that the well-known rapper sang about, but still.

First of all, he’d have to have leaders of the left kiss and make up. With seven weeks and counting till elections, the prospect SD, LDS and Zares playing in concert is minute. Furthermore, he has almost no organisational network on the ground. With elections this close, there is no way Janković can mount an effective operation without the support of left-wing parties which – as shown above – are more or less at each other’s throats.

Two, SD, LDS and Zares actually have to want Janković to enter the race. As things stand now, this is not the case. While positions of LDS and Zares are not entirely known (both parties seem on the fence on the issue, with LDS being in marginally better relations with the industrious mayor), SD is going positively bananas over the prospect of Janković going national. Apart from Jauševec’s Facebook status, there are attempts to implicate Janković’s sons into some shady business dealings and by extension smear Janković himself. It seems a no brainer that the leak came from the parliamentary committee investigating real-estate business in Ljubljana (but mostly targeting mayor Janković). But although this is an SDS-run comittee, chaired by Alenka Jeraj MP, the leak most likely came from the left side. The political right would have probably sat on that info until Janković entered the game for real and slammed him with it then. This brings us to problem number…

Three. It is in Janez Janša’s interest that Janković enter the race. The presumptive PM said as much in a recent interview for the Christian radio Ognjišče. And he’s right. Mayor Janković is a pain in the ass for any government. Being ridiculously popular in Ljubljana, he seems practically invincible and is making virtually every political party in the city look like fools (SD and SDS chief among them). If, however, he were to enter the national arena and lose to Janša (which in this case means scoring an unimpressive result that would put him on a par with or even below every other party), his aura of awesome would be very much shaken, possibly to the point of him losing some cool in Ljubljana as well. Which is why the PM presumptive would love nothing more than to beat the shit out of the biggest political problem he had during his 2004-2008 term.

Four, the polls. Public opinion polls do in fact put Janković on the map, but he is way behind Janez Janša, while his (presumptive) candidate list gets between one and nine precent (yes, it’s a huge margin, but remember, it’s still early in the game). But to have any kind of fighting chance of winning the nomination, Jay-Z and his candidate list would have to be scoring at least in the low 20s. They’re nowhere near that number which means that there’s a shitload of work to be done. And even if all of the above is achieved (uniting the left, establishing the network and closing the gap in the polls), Janković would still only be where Janez Janša and his SDS already are today.

Five. The electoral system is a major factor in the final result of the national elections. Eight voting units, each with eleven voting precincts and a combination of Hare quota and Droop quota can really take it out on a man. Unlike local elections, where (especially in Ljubljana) every party runs with one candidate list and then wins a proportional number of seats in the local council, national elections require a party to submit a different list for every voting unit and have candidates from the list run in different precincts. In fact it is even a bit more complicated than that, but the bottom line is that Zoran Janković can not head every list in every unit. And finally, the distribution of votes is almost as important as the actual result and while generally fair, the system can play a role, especially if there is no clear-cut victor.

Six. While not willing to rule out running for PM, Janković has categorically ruled out serving as Member of Parliament. Now, technically it is not necessary for a PM nominee to be elected as MP first, but this usually is the case, because it is considered as a kind of commitment by a party leader (or a politician in general) to his voters. If he were to run on a ticket, Janković would most likely get elected as MP. But in order to clinch a nomination for Prime Minister, his candidate list would have to win enough seats in the parliament to form a coalition (it is extremely unlikely that he’d win an absolute majority, like he did in Ljubljana elections in 2006 and 2010). Failing that, Janković could become stuck in the parliament, because being elected as MP would mean he’d have to relinquish his mayorship, due to the recently (and finally!) passed law on conflict of interests which prohibits mayors servning as MPs and vice-versa. To circumvent that, Jay-Z could choose not to run for MP and lead his candidate list from the “outside” so to speak, but then the question of commitment would immediately be raised: if he really wants to be the prime minister, why doesn’t he have the balls to face his opponents in an open contest?

Seven. If by some weird coincidence Jay-Z actually beats the odds and wins on 4 December, you can be sure that the furious Janša-led opposition will first cry foul and then work damn hard to blame Janković for just about everything that’s ever been wrong wrong in this country. And trust me, what hasn’t already, will go wrong very soon, because of…

Eight. This country is close to economic collapse. I’m not necessarily talking Greek scenario here, but fact of the matter is that there’s no more money left. The ministry of finance stopped all non-essential spending as early as the end of September, which basically means we’re running on empty. With both the US and the EU entering into the second part of the double-dip recession (via Nouriel Roubini), things don’t look good for the forseeable future. In fact, latest prognoses put recovery as late as 2016. And that’s by those same economists which said that things should be back to normal in late 2009, so you can understand how bad things really are.

Nine. Is it really worth it? With the economic and financial onslaught looming and the prospect of having to pass reform legislation which was once already thwarted, no government is likely to make it to the end of its regular term in the next couple of years. In fact, as the good doctor noted, Janez Janša worked long and hard to derail the reform attempts by the outgoing government and he should be able to reap what he sowed. Angry labour unions, disillusioned supporters, nervous money-men and wailing CEOs should be his to deal with for the next couple of years. Zoran Janković is quick to point out that he is ready to serve his country, but the truth is this country can take a couple of years of Janez Janša as PM. Sure, it will be messy, but the only way out of this mess is if the SDS leader gets a strong serving of what he helped cook in the past four years.

Make the call, dammit!

Janković is on the fence for a couple of weeks now and rumours have it that he will make the call late next week. High time he did, as the deadline for submitting candidate lists is 21 October. How he will decide, however, is still a mystery. Pengovsky believes the above clearly computes into Janković not taking the plunge. Pros are hugely outweighed by the cons. On a rational level, Janković knows most if not all of the above. However, there’s always the possibility of him taking a galactic gamble and having a go at it. If it came to that, however, anything falling short of a full commitment will turn out to be a short-cut to a political disaster of epic proportions.

Ratko Mladić “Found” And Captured

The arrest of war crimes fugitive Ratko Mladić comes at an extremely crucial moment for Serbia. At a time when Croatia is apparently on the verge of having been given a fixed date for EU entry, when Chief Prosecutor at the Hague Tribunal Serge Brammertz said that Serbia has not done nearly enough to catch the two main remaining war criminals (Mladić and Goran Hadžić), at the time when the EU is considering reintroducing visas for some Balkan countries including, apparently, Serbia, it would seem that Belgrade had no choice but to take the issue of general Ratko Mladić off the table.

Ratko Mladić and Radovan Karadžić. Both captured

Now, there’s always the possibility of pieces just falling into place. After all the United States found Osama Bin Laden after ten years not far (relatively speaking) from where he was in the first place. But this being Balkans and all, you’ll forgive me if I remain my cynical self.

Ratko Mladić was hiding under an alias Milorad Komadić in a village called Lazarevo. According to tweets by @Belgrade (editor of belgraded.com) Mladić was “found” in a village mostly inhabited by people from Mladić region of birth (a Serbian village South-East of Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina) and was brazen enough to use only a modification of his real name as an alias: Milorad Komadić. You either need balls of steel or (at the very least) tacit goverment support to do something like that.

You’ll remember that basically the same thing happened with Radovan Karadžić, who (using the assumed name of Dragan Dabić) lived in Belgrade practically under everyone’s noses. Point being that both Karadžić and Mladić were trump cards Serbian government used whenever it found itself cornered by the EU. While there’s still the capture of Goran Hadžić to attend to, the EU and (most likely) the United States will quite possibly grant certain concession to Serbia on a quid-pro-quo basis.

And this is basically it. What we saw today was – in my opinion – a closure of a deal where Serbian government bargained hard and most likely got what it wanted. EU ~~foreign minister~~ high representative for foreign affairs Catherine Ashton would not be in Belgrade today had there not been some sort of an agreement made. Although people tend to look down on her it is possible (and I’m only speculating here) that she had two envelopes with her: one if Serbia played ball, the other if it didn’t.

And just to put conspiracy theories to rest: The fact that European Parliament reporter for Serbia, Slovene MEP Jelko Kacin said only earlier today that Serbia will not be granted candidate status without Mladić arrest in all likelyhood is a coincidence 🙂

Anyways, Ratko Mladić is apparently on his way to The Hague where he will once again be united with Radovan Karadžić. The Duo Horribilis will stand trial for war crimes just in time for the ICTY to complete its charter. Hopefully, they will not follow their political mentor Slobodan Milošević and take their own lives, but will be tried and convicted for their crimes so that hundreds of thousands of people upon whom they brought untold horror and suffering may finally find some sort of inner peace.

May whatever god they might believe in have mercy on their souls. They will find little forgiveness on this Earth.

A Good Day To Die (Is EU Following In Yugoslavia Footsteps?)

Comrade Tito died on this day in 1980. Thirty-one years later the death of Josip Broz Tito is little more than a moment in history. Yugoslavia is no more, wars between nations have largely been subdued if not permanently ended and save Slovenia, which has made good use of the “congestion of history” in the late 80s and early 90s, most of the ex-YU countries are at different stages of what is lovingly knows as “Euro-Atlantic Integration Process”. But just exactly where are they headed? Back to where they once already were?

Lep Dan Za Smrt (A Good Day To Die) by Dan D

The main difference between the EU and Yugoslavia can be described using Marxist terms: The neglected German philosopher postulated that every society first needs to establish an economic infrastructure upon which it builds the social superstructure. Yugoslavia under Tito and later went in the opposite direction. It first established the superstructure and then attempted (and failed spectacularly) to adapt the economic infrastructure accordingly. In this respect the EU is much more of a Marxist project than Yugoslavia ever was I know some of you are rolling under the table in a spasm, foaming at the mouth after reading this, but it’s true.

Today, the part of EU which has money is pumping shitload of cash and guarantees into the part of EU that has none. Some EU members are talking about scrubbing the Schengen treaty and reinstituting border checkpoints when they see fit (“special circumstances” cited by France and Italy being the broadest of excuses this side of Jupiter). And, lest we forget, places like Hungary and Finland are making people nervous by either passing constitution that would make 19h century blush or bringing anti-Europe fundamentalists within inches of actually running the country. Not to mention the fact that right-wing nationalists are flourishing all around Europe as well.

What was once Yugoslavia saw this film already: the developed republics (mostly Slovenia) were pumping money into the bottomless pit that was the rest of Yugoslavia without hope of ever seeing it again, borders were drawn, re-drawn and fought over, all the while most of the republics succumbed to the spell of nationalist movements and the charisma of its leaders, including (but not limited to) Slobodan Milošević and Franjo Tuđman.

Historically, every multi-national entity Slovenia (or any other ex-Yu republic) was ever a part of, disintegrated in blood-shed. And to continue with Marxist theme, history tends to repeat itself. First as a tragedy and then as a farce.

BTW: The music video above is by Slovene band Dan D and is using images of Tito’s funeral as a backdrop to what is possibly one of their best tunes, even though it is a cover as the song is originally by Niet.

One More For The Road

Q: How much must a Slovene drink to score .25 on a breathalyzer test? A: Nothing for at least three days.

Ex-minister Gjerkeš during an interview for The Firm™ (source)

Minister for local self-government and regional policy Henrik Gjerkeš resigned yesterday after being taken into custody by the police for driving under the influence at 4 AM on Tuesday whilst returning home from ministry’s end-of-the-year party. Apparently he scored .63 on breathalyzer test, which is not at all surprising if one takes into account the fact that the party apparently started at 2 PM on Monday. While it is not known whether Gjerkeš was there for the entire fourteen hours, one can imagine that he did put some back into it. Especially given the fact that he was pulled over for driving on a motorway with a flat tyre. Oh, and he was driving a government Audi

Obviously, Gjerkeš had no choice but to resign immediately, putting additional strain on an already embattled government of Borut Pahor. That quick resignation minimised the media and political fallout is a no-brainer, but it has started a chain of events which will further drain energy and resources of the government in general and the prime minister in particular.

Techincally, Gjerkeš was appointed by the parliament and it is the parliament who will a) have to note his resignation and b) appoint his successor. This will apparently be Duša Trobec Bučan who until now served as state secretary in Gjerkeš’s ministry and was his right-hand woman. The mechanics of the transfer are relatively straightforward, doubly so given the fact this is in fact a ministerial position without portfolio and that the Ministry for local self-government is in fact a government office, elevated to ministry status on a per-government basis.

However, the new would-be minister will first have to attend a parliamentary hearing in front of appropriate committees and then she and PM Pahor will have to go though a special session of the parliament where you can be sure no punches will be pulled. Doubly so because this ministry is in charge of acquiring EU cohesion funds and the sight of €€€ being pumped into his/her constituency makes many an MP go rabid. Doubly so if they also serve as mayors in their respective municipalities.

Gjerkeš’s resignation might seem normal and the only decent thing to do – and it is – but the sad truth is that it does set new standards in Slovenian politics, since there are well documented cases of MPs driving under the influence and even causing accidents and yet they not only got away with it, they even got re-elected. Pengovsky knows of one other case years when a minister caused a traffic accident (no one was hurt) and not only did he get away with it, he even managed to put a lid on it and the media didn’t report it. He later bragged about it to pengovsky during (the irony) one of many end-of-the-year receptions.

Bottom line: this was a totally stupid mistake to make on Gjerkeš’s part. Especially since he turned out to be quite capable, regardless of his virtual anonymity before becoming minister. As it is, he is now only a statistic – the sixth minister PM Pahor will have to replace, the second in this particular office.