SDS MP Walks Away From A Car Wreck That Is His Party. But Where Is He Headed?

While most of Europe sighed in a collective relief upon learning that Alexander van der Bellen was elected President of Austria and at the same time ignoring the fact that a crypto-Nazi won 49.7 percent of the vote (seriously, Austria, what the actual fuck?!) important changes, albeit of a lesser degree, are taking place just south of the Austrian border, too. Namely, early on Monday the SDS of Janez Janša saw its first top-tier departure. To be fair, putting Andrej Čuš MP in the top-tier is a bit of a stretch, but the 26-year-old was once the leader of the Party youth organisation and elected to parliament twice (as a replacement deputy in 2013 and a full-term deputy a year later) so by virtue of the position he holds, count the kid in the grown-ups column. Also, the fact that he is the first one to walk from a party that is increasingly looking like a bad car wreck is not unimportant.

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Andrej Čuš kind of walking away from an explosion. Picture is symbolic (duh), plopped togehter by yours truly. (source & source)

Now, in the past few weeks a lot was said and written about how SDS is bursting at the seams, pengovsky included. But almost invariably this was framed as the more sensible wing of the party jumping ship, leaving Janša increasingly isolated and dejected thus opening up space for Aleš Primc to upgrade his protest movement into a full-blown party and commandeer most of the right-wing. Čuš quitting the SDS signals that Primc may have opted for eating up the SDS from within.

You see, Čuš took on quite a visible profile during the autumn/winter refugee crisis. Fomenting protests against refugee centres in Kidričevo near his native Ptuj and later in Šenčur near Kranj, accusing the president of the parliament Brglez of high treason for advocating the location of the centre in his hometown of Logatec (where it was ultimately established), the kid toed the anti-imigrant line in a way that would make Norbert Hofer proud. And since the ChristDem NSi, the other parliamentary right-wing party is Angela Merkel‘s echo chamber on many issues including the refugees, Čuš is – for the moment at least – persona non grata for the NSi. So much for theories of in-parliament poaching. On the other hand, Primc has built up a relatively massive operation on the ground, full of anger, righteousness and populism in general, but is lacking direct access to the parliamentary arena. He can’t wait forever lest he loses the momentum and since elections aren’t going to happen any time soon, peeling an MP or two off the SDS is a sensible way to go about it.

For his part, Čuš claims to have been simply fed up with Janša obsessing over Milan Kučan and that it was time to think of the future, especially future of the young people whom he obviously sees as his constituency. As far as excuses go he could have done worse. But the whole thing is nevertheless so transparent that it hurts. Namely, the latest iteration of Janša so-not-being-over Kučan consists of a group of JJ’s blowhards diehards indicting Kučan for high treason back in 1990 when he allegedly failed to stop the Yugoslav Army from hauling away a lot of weaponry earmarked for the nascent Territorial Defence (precursor to the Slovene Army). The case doesn’t have a leg to stand on, but this was just a cue Čuš was waiting for to make his move.

As per Rules and Regulations, he is now counted as an independent. But it will soon become apparent whether his “this is why we can’t have nice things” manoeuvre is just a ploy or is he really that stupid. Namely, his life as of Monday will become enormously more difficult. Not only will he lose access to the resources of a very large parliamentary group and will instead have to share limited resources in money and personnel with other independents . He will also have to contend with more constrained speaking time alloted and get generally to the back of the line on many issues and scenarios. It sucks being an independent in Slovenian parliament.

Unless, of course, you have outside support that will generate media attention. And this is where Primc comes into play. Yesterday Čuš was saying something about forming advisory councils and soliciting expert opinions on various issues as his path forward. Left to his own devices, this is a nigh-impossible task for one man, especially as inexperienced as Čuš is. If, however, the attendees were brought in by someone else, say an emerging political party with a wide grass-roots network and if Čuš provides a high-profile venue, such as, dunno, a conference room in the parliament, then the whole thing is suddenly very doable.

So, the smart money is on Andrej Čuš MP, formerly of SDS, to soon become the poster-boy of a new political party run by Aleš Primc. And if a few other SDS MPs were to follow in Čuš’s footsteps, we could soon find ourselves with several nominally independent MPs forming an unofficial parliamentary group which then in turn becomes a fully fledged party. We’ve seen that film before.

 

 

The Army Is A Broad Sword, Not A Scalpel

Following a surge in influx of refugees which apparently stretched Slovenian personnel and housing resources to their limits, the government of Miro Cerar came up with amendments to Defence Act granting the Slovenian army policing powers and rushed them through the parliament in a rarely used emergency legislative procedure. The move, backed by both the coalition and most of the opposition is aimed to provide relief to the overstretched police and Civil defence force. But in reality it opens a Pandora’s box of the military spilling over into the civilian sphere.

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“The army will perform its duty.” Bruce Willis/William Deveraux in The Siege (source)

Admittedly, the numbers Slovenian authorities were dealing with are staggering in terms of the country’s size and its resources. More than 20.000 refugees came to the Slovenian border via the “West Balkan route” through Croatia in the last couple of days. Quite a substantial number of them, as per Slovenian government, without any notification from their Croatian counterparts who reportedly transported the refugees somewhere in the vicinity of theborder rather than to the actual border crossings and then cut them loose, leaving them to make their way across the river, fields and marshes into Slovenia.

And since Slovenia, trying to be European to a fault, insists on an orderly processing and transfer of refugees from Croatia through its several refugee centres onwards to Austria, things got tricky at the Slovenia/Croatia border, prompting the government in Ljubljana to employ the army as a policing force.

Which is a big fucking mistake.

The problem is, of course, many-fold. First, the mere fact that with this, the firewall between the civilian and the military sphere is being, albeit slightly and temporarily, torn down. Giving the army powers over the civilian population is a big no-no. Unless a state of emergency was declared and last time pengovsky checked, that wasn’t the case. Although some people act as if it were. And this is the problem number two.

A lot of what we were seeing these past few days were knee-jerk reactions to events that were and are apparently getting the better of people at the top of the food chain whose primary role is to keep things strategically in check. As if deploying the military was the only alternative to using police forces.

There’s the old adage that if a hammer is all you know how to use, everything looks like a nail. But this is not a case of trigger-happy politicos jumping the gun (literally) and launching a scenario not unlike in The Siege. No, a more proper parallel would be that of a first-time plane passengers on a very bumpy ride, already reaching for their life jackets while the flight crew is still serving drinks.

A number of those alternatives came to light as the parliament was debating the amendments to the Law on Defence. These include aid by the European frontier agency Frontex as well as bilateral help from other EU states’ police forces, most notably Austria and Germany. These options are now being considered and reportedly about to be enacted.

Problemo numero tres is the actual scope of powers granted to the military. While members of the Slovenian army apparently have some crowd control training, there is serious concern as to whether Slovenian soldiers have the (legal) knowledge and experience to execute these powers with necessary restraint and respect for human rights. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Slovenian Army are prone to human rights violations. What I’m saying is that the army – any army – was not designed with this in mind. Simple as that. And by the time enough military units are trained in the nuances of policing civilians and equipped to do that effectively, this crisis will have long passed.

Which brings us to the fourth and the biggest problem. This, too, shall pass. And after it does, we’ll be left with army units with a shitload of equipment they won’t need anymore and training that does not correspond to their basic mission. A waste of resources, if I ever saw one. But not only that. The most worrisome leftover will be the legislation itself.

Because if you think that the provision granting policing powers to the army is going to go away after this is over, you’re sorely mistaken. It is here to stay, for ever and ever. Just like increased political meddling with the public television or the fiscal rule.

And even if the government plans to repeal the provision after the crisis abates, someone should tell them they will fail to secure the necessary two-thirds majority. Because the right-wing parties which supported the provision practically without dissent (customary political bickering, gloating and we-told-you-so’s not withstanding) and who find Victor Orban a rather appealing character, were long clamouring for something like this. And now they got it, they’re not going to let go of it that easily.

There will be other governments and there will be other crises. And bringing in the army has suddenly become much easier. All that is needed now is a technical request by the government to the parliament and – poof! – the army suddenly has policing powers again.

Luckily, yesterday cooler heads prevailed and the bar for approving special powers was raised to a two-thirds rather than just a simple majority as originally proposed by the government. Also, the amended law provides a sunset clause for these powers which expire after three months if not revoked sooner. They can, however, be extended, too, pending a re-vote. Meaning that this is not really a strong safeguard against abuse.

Fear of abuse was present in the subtext of the presentation by the Chief of the General Staff, Maj. Gen. Andrej Osterman, when he addressed the parliament yesterday. Namely, among other things, Osterman said Slovenian army neither wants nor has asked for policing powers, but will perform the duty as instructed.

It was Bruce Willis in the role of General William Deveraux in The Siege who said that the army is a broad sword, not a scalpel.

And yet, here we are. What could possibly go wrong?

 

We Need To Talk About Hungary

So Hungary started erecting a barbed-wire fence on the border with Slovenia as well yesterday morning. Since the Orban government was busy doing exactly that for the past few weeks on its borders with Serbia and Croatia, seemingly to stem the influx of refugees, the move shouldn’t come as a surprise. But Ljubljana was surprised and has officially yet to respond to the move.

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Shitty graphics by yours truly

According to media reports, it was the Slovenian police which first noted the Hungarian army fooling around with metal constructions at Pince border crossing. The foreign ministry was notified and – nothing. Foreign minister Karl Erjavec lamented the fact that Hungary did not notfiy Slovenia ahead of time and later said that his Hungarian counterpart Peter Szijjarto told him in an informal phone call that fence is “a temporary installation”. Yeah, well, so was the Berlin wall.

Admittedly, the joke in this case is on Slovenia. The country’s intelligence services apparently failed to even predict let alone detect Hungarian moves. Even worse, three weeks ago Slovenian president Borut Pahor met Victor Orban and said that some Hungarian measures need to be taken into account. To Pahor’s credit, he did manage a between-the-lies criticism of Orban’s policies by stating that “some of his assessments left me [Pahor] speechless”. But actions speak louder than words. And one wonders just how speechless the Prez was yesterday, when he woke up to an iron curtain on his North-Eastern border. Needless to say Slovenia has yet to lodge a formal protest with the Hungarian ambassador in Ljubljana.

Now, clichés about temporary solutions having a tendency of becoming permanent aside, we really need to talk about Hungary. On an Europe-wide level. The country has now erected or is in the process of doing so, a barbed wire fence on the border with three of its seven neighbouring states. Since its borders with Romania and Ukraine are also the outer borders of the Schengen Area and the EU respectively, the only intra-EU borders which remain non-fenced one way or another are borders with Austria and Slovakia. And those two countries suspended Schengen rules on their side of the border (as did Slovenia last week, mind you), making Hungary, well, fenced-off from the rest of the world.

And that is a huge problem.

You see, the difference between this latest case of Hungarian metal works and all the preceding ones is that this is the first instance of a newly installed physical barrier between two Schengen Area members. Which sort of defies the point of a common Schengen area and raises the question of just how much Hungary can get away with in terms of breaching basic EU agreements. Because unlike other suspensions of Schengen rules, this one wasn’t announced. And even those countries that did suspend Schengen, are doing so in terms of reintroduced border-crossing check-points rather than the new Iron Curtain.

Which brings us to the next problem: in his previous post, pengovsky wrote that the barbed-wire fence, while officially meant to stem the influx of refugees is indeed a show for domestic consumption and a message to any Hungarian who wants to challenge Orban’s grip on power. Fact it that Hungarians can not cross a single neighbouring border without someone at least knowing about it. If – or, rather, when – the fence project continues, that particular somenone will be tempted to start allowing prohibiting travel. Which is why Klaxons should be ringing in Brussels. Loudly.

And if that is not enough for you, try this on for size. Days ago Hungarian parliament by a large majority passed an act increasing powers of the police and the military in responding to the refugee crisis. Those powers now include use of nonlethal firearms as well as disregarding the right of the privacy of home in search of “illegal migrants” as the official term goes.

So, now we have a fenced-off country where the police and the army have hugely increased powers and overlapping jurisdictions. Suppose in a few months or years someone comes up with an amendment to the increased powers act, replacing the term “illegal migrants” with, say, “enemies of the state”.

Worried yet?

UPDATE: According to Slovenian media Hungarian army began dismantling the fence with Budapest apparently claiming it was all a misunderstading. Riiiight….

UPDATE 2: This via Andrew MacDowall via Hugarian Spectrum. Apparently the offical term for the installation on the border was not “a fence” but “a wire obstacle”. Brilliant! 😀