In an inexplicable bout of na¨ivete, pengovsky really did expect Slovenian recognition of Palestine to actually happen this time around. Well, not so fast, said Janez Janša.
The recognition will still likely happen, but probably not before the EU/referendums vote on Sunday. And oddly enough, there is a non-zero chance this somehow ends up helping Robert Golob.
First, the nitty-gritty. In a masterclass of procedural democracy, the SDS filed a motion to call a consultative referendum on recognition of Palestine. Officially, SDS argues that recognition of Palestine would signal approval or Hammas aggression on Israel on 7 October. But the real goal here is to deny Robert Golob’s GS a political victory mere days before the EU vote on 9 June.
Tactical victory
According to parliamentary rules and procedures, a motion for a consultative referendum has priority but can also be debated no earlier than 30 days after filing. Which puts the kibosh on government’s plan to recognise Palestine tomorrow.
Assuming that the parliamentary majority doesn’t go all apeshit and shuts down the move, rules and procedures be damned, Janša and the Party seem to have scored a tactical victory.
Strategically, however, they might have fucked themselves, bigly.
First of all, a consultative referendum on recognition of Palestine will never happen. A simple majority is needed to actually call it and Janez Janša normally doesn’t even come close. Not in this parliament.
What were the SDS thinking
Second, and much more important, PM Robert Golob can now put on a straight face and claim that were it not for the Glorious Leader, Muddy Hollows would have already recognised Palestine.
Exactly what The Party leadership was thinking is unclear at this point. Maybe they were just mad at the largely positive reception of Palestinian recognition announcement, they needed to do something – anything – to derail it.
Maybe this is Janša carrying water for his friend Bibi Netanyahu, even at the risk of a sub-optimal election result.
Or, maybe, this only goes to show how this EU election in Muddy Hollows is driven purely by culture wars and virtue signalling and is devoid of any substance.
A better place to be
Yesterday, pengovsky wrote that being vaguely pro-Palestine without doing really doing anything about it was a good place to be for a Slovenian politician.
Today, Janez Janša gave The Big Bird and even better place to be: being vocally pro-Palestine and actually not being able to do anything about it.
Expect the prime minister to spend the next couple of days explaining at length how Muddy Hollows would have already been opening a fully-fledged embassy in Ramallah, were it not for the meddlesome SDS.
The implication of course being that a vote for the GS is a vote for Palestinian recognition. This, even though this particular PM spent weeks flip-flopping and back-tracking on this issue like.
Winning is (not) doing
And so, it could well happen that supporters of Palestinian recognition will flock to GS camp just days before the election, nudging Golob’s party just above the threshold needed to win a third MEP seat. A seat that would, via some fancy electoral mathematics, come at the expense of none other that SDS itself. And all that without PM Golob, you know, actually recognising the State of Palestine.
Put another way, a tactically smart move by SDS could turn out to be a strategic disaster for the Party.
