On Thursday, PM Robert Golob announced Slovenia will recognise the State of Palestine. Technically, a formal act by the parliament establishing diplomatic relations is still needed. But as the ruling centre-left coalition has a comfortable majority, this will most likely not be a problem.
Thus, come Tuesday, weeks of foreign policy enthusiasm followed by carefully scripted walk-backs will come to an end. And Muddy Hollows will finally establish top-level diplomatic relations with the remnants of West Bank and Gaza.
The issue of Palestinian recognition has a somewhat farcical history in Muddy Hollows. Mostly because this all feels like a deja-vu all over again. You see, this sorry excuse for a country was on the cusp of recognising Palestine way back in 2018. And in a detail what will come as a surprise to a grand total of zero people, it was election season back then, too.
Getting it just right
But 2018 is not 2024, obviously. The outrage and horror of large parts of Slovenian electorate at the sight of Israeli rampage in Gaza are genuine. And on a daily basis, Bibi Netanyahu is making sure the country and the government he runs are losing support within the EU and the West at large, at an astonishing rate.
It is no hyperbole to say that this year the EU, the UK and the US are gearing up for crucial elections. It is basically about whether liberal, representative democracy dies or lives to see another day. And so, “getting the Middle East question just right” is not simply about finally implementing the Two-state solution. It is also about getting it just about right to win additional voters without alienating others. In some cases, it is only about that.
Joe Biden obviously needs to worry about the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Especially after the clusterfuck that the pro-Palestinian student protests turned into. But even more than that, he needs to worry about the two percent of Arab-American voters in Michigan.
All the help they can get
At the same time, he needs to worry about the more centrist element within his own party and maybe even independent or Republican-light voters. They may be thinking of throwing their support behind him on account of his reproductive rights agenda but are probably seeing war in Gaza from a more Israel-friendly perspective.
President Biden will need both demographics, and everyone in between, to win a second term and spare his country the indignity of being run by a convicted felon. And we didn’t even mention the small detail of the US really not wanting a local war, as brutal as it is, from turning into a regional shitstorm.
Or, take the Tories in the UK. It is of course no coincidence that foreign minister David Cameron dangled the possibility of recognising Palestine back in February. He even went so far to offer it as a step to ending the war, not as a reward for ending it. This, after having crawled from whatever rock he was hiding under, post-Brexit.
Sure, it may be a bit of statecraft. But with Cameron, it is just as likely simple electoral mathematics. And in five weeks’ time, the Tories are going to need all the help they can get.
Which brings us to this sorry little excuse for a country and the EU vote held in exactly seven days.
Rooting for the underdog
Historically, the good people of Muddy Hollows are supportive of the plight of the Palestinians. Mind you, this was not always the case. On at least one occasion, the Mess in the Middle East was apparently used as a way to safely show dissatisfaction with the socialist regime. But on the whole, rooting for the underdog seems to be a bit of the national past-time.
So, being vaguely pro-Palestine without doing anything substantial about it was a good place to be, politically. With Slovenia winning a non-permanent seat in the UN Security Council, this particular arithmetic has changed a bit, but not by much.
Any other business
So The Big Bird talked up a big game back in March about Slovenia recognising Palestine together with Spain, Ireland and Malta. But it was only a matter of time before the year 2018 entered the chat. Sure enough, nary a month later Golob was at the not-if-but-when stage of walking it back.
And then last Thursday, seemingly out of the blue, the government adopted a motion to recognise Palestine. Under the item “any other business”, no less. It drew up a draft act sent to the parliament. And MPs are set to debate and likely adopt it on Tuesday, mere five days before the EU vote.
So, what changed? Opinion polls. Not by much, mind you. But in general the government is getting slightly higher marks lately than it used to over the past few months. And as horrific images from Gaza are making Slovenians sit up and take notice, the electorate is no longer only vaguely pro-Palestine.
Which brings us to Levica, the most pro-Palestinian party in Muddy Hollows. The party of Asta Vrečko and Luka Mesec will once again fail to make the cut for the European Parliament. At least according to the latest polls. To put crudely, of the nine MEPs from Slovenia, none will represent Levica.
How Levica became fair game for Golob
And in the cold, hard banality of Slovenian political cesspool, this means Levica’s voter base is now fair game for Gibanje Svoboda (GS) and Social Democrats (SD), the other two coalition parties. Doubly so, if we are to believe scenarios where an increased turnout could clinch a third MEP seat for PM Golob’s GS, at the expense of Janez Janša’s SDS.
Not that SDS voters would flock to GS over Palestine, but the bar of votes needed could be raised just enough to deny SDS its fourth MEP. This would then pave the way via some fancy electoral mathematics, for a third GS MEP, which would be a not-so-mild shock to the established groupthink. At least, that’s the takeaway from the latest episode of LD;GD podcast (around 38min 10sec).
LDGD S06E21 (source)
Naturally, the story of Slovenian recognition of Palestine did not begin with Robert Golob and Tanja Fajon in March of this year. Nor did it begin in 2018 with Miro Cerar, Milan Brglez and Karl Erjavec.
Back when Arafat was in Muddy Hollows
Today’s edition of Delo newspaper ran a nice little story on how personal friendships and covert military and political support played a role even before the State of Israel was a thing.
Just as importantly, this year will mark the 50th anniversary of Yasser Arafat’s visit to Slovenia. Abu Ammar came to Bled where Comrade Tito greeted him and gave him the celebrity treatment. You know, one guerilla revolutionary to the other. Remember, rooting for the underdog is a bit of a national past-time around here.
Point being that, somewhat incredibly, Slovenia does have a long and storied connection to Israel and Palestine. And yet, for all the horror, suffering and destruction in Gaza, it all comes down to the old adage by Hubert H. Humprey.
Foreign policy is just domestic policy with its hat on. Especially in an election heavy on virtue signalling and light on, you know, actual policy.