Muddy Hollows celebrated her birthday last week. And it just so happened that a few days before the big event, N1 media outlet reported that Janez Janša apparently floated the possibility of political retirement. This obviously stopped the political and pundit class dead in their tracks. It also made the off-year anniversary of Slovenian independence that much more interesting.
On that note, pengovsky should point out that president NPM delivered her first state-of-the-nation-ish speech as part of the official festivities. And did a fine job of it. She also didn’t mention Marshal Twito, at least not directly. But she did tear him a brand new asshole by forcefully rejecting casual references to civil war. Something Janša was throwing around liberally over the past few weeks.
As per the N1 report, Janša dropped the R-bomb in late November during an SDS executive committee meeting. In other words, immediately after he got his ass handed to him at the ballot box, for the fifth consecutive time in a span of six months.
Shocked troops
He apparently said something to the effect of not continuing as party chief by the time the next SDS congress is held. And then added, per report, that Anže Logar will have to decide whether he will take over as SDS boss. Supposedly, this left those present in a bit of a shock.
That said, Janša’s teaser happened six months ago. So, a couple of caveats are in order.
First and foremost, somehow everyone involved managed to keep a lid on this for more than half a year. This most likely indicates that no-one took the Glorious Leader seriously at the time. Or, at the very least, that they trust him implicitly to come up with a succession plan.
Succession plan
Then again, the teaser was leaked six months later. This indicates either that the gravity of the situation has sunk in only now (unlikely), or that the succession plan is not shaping up to people’s expectations. Assuming that there is a succession plan at all.
Janša has pulled stunts like this before. Specifically, after he lost the 2011 election to Zoran Janković. In fact, one of the most effective moves to cut potential in-party opposition off at the knees, is to offer to resign immediately after a resounding defeat.
Assuming that the party leadership was loyal up to that point (and Janša made damn sure it was), it is a safe bet that an spontaneous rally-around-the-flag reaction would occur. And, boom, before the party honchos even realise it, the loser-leader already secured his position.
In connection to the previous point, it could have all been just a simple test of loyalty. And it seems someone just failed it. Which means a small-scale purge could well be just around the corner.
Keeping op keeping on
After a brief period of licking his wounds, Janša and the SDS continued as if nothing happened. In fact, now that they don’t have to spend time actually governing, they’ve only radicalised their rhetoric and doubled down on political hardball (see introductory notes on civil war).
The one thing that did happen in the six months since the reported tease took place, was that Anže Logar launched his debate club. He followed that up with teasing a full-blown party. But crucially, he hasn’t launched it. Yet.
And last but certainly not least. the EU Parliament election, where the SDS traditionally fares well, are due in eleven months.
Considering the above, chances of Janša riding off into the sunset diminish dramatically. They are, however, no longer nil.
Logar scenarios
In this respect, the most indicative development here is the spawning of Anže Logar’s debate club. The possibility of a new centre of gravity on the political right offers a tantalising possibility of a managed transition to a post-Janša period.
This could come in one of two ways. Logar could try to distance himself from the Party. Of which he is still a card-carrying member, mind you. This way he could polish the mirage of a moderate SDS leader, after which Janša would anoint him as designated successor and let him take over the organisation in 2025.
Alternatively, Logar could launch his own party, which would act as a sort of political Special Purpose Vehicle. With it, he would then take over SDS membership and party structure after the Glorious Leader throws in the towel.
Given how toxic the SDS brand is to everyone but their core base, the second scenario actually makes more sense. Changing the leader, the name and the logo, but keeping most (if not all) of its politics, just might be enough to give the Party a new lease of life, should Janez Janša really get the fuck out Dodge.
Lights out for SDS?
Because if he does, without a succession plan of one sort of another, the SDS will implode like the Titan submersible.
The Party simply does not have an HR pool members of which could plausibly step up and fill the gap left by the Glorious Leader. Not even on a temporary basis.
We got a preview of this way back when Janša was in the joint and Zvone Černač was handling the day-to-day party business. Every time poor Zvone wanted to make some sort of a grand political gesture, he was clamped down by other SDS factions. Which, incidentally, seemed to appear out of nowhere.
Which, in pengovsky’s estimation, is where the Glorious Leader is ultimately going, too.
Nowhere.
His actions post-2022 indicate that he did not, in fact, learn his lesson. He again doubled down on inflammatory rhetoric, radical positions and no-holds-barred politics. Which is what he inevitably does. Every fucking time.
As always, a week is a long time in politics. So, a lot can happen between now and the next Party congress. But as the pain of brutal losses at the ballot box recedes, the likelihood of Janez Janša riding off into the sunset gets smaller and smaller.
Just as his electorate.
