For a brief moment yesterday evening it seemed that a consensus was reached in Croatian politics on the arbitrage agreement with Slovenia. At about seven o’clock, just in time for prime time news, Croatian media started making noises about an emergency cabinet meeting convened by Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor. The news was all the more melodramatic as a scheduled cabinet meeting had already taken place earlier in the day.
Croatian opposition leader Zoran Milanović (SDP) explaining why he opposes the Pahor-Kosor agreement (source)
It turned out that following Monday’s visit of her Slovenian counterpart Borut Pahor in Zagreb, Kosor held coalition talks where the agreement apparently got the reluctant nod. According to various accounts in Croatian media she then proceeded to see how things stand with the opposition and apparently things were looking good as she convened an evening meeting with leaders of all parliamentary parties which was to be followed by a cabinet meeting, where the government would formally approve the agreement, allowing Kosor to sign it perhaps as early as today, while she is visiting Brussels.
Unfortunately, the consensus (if there ever was any) fell apart as Social Democrats, the main opposition party led by Zoran Milanović apparently still had misgivings about the wording of the agreement. Specifically, they are bothered by the stipulation that the arbitrage tribunal will decide on Slovenian junction (or contact) with high seas. Incidentally, this is precisely the point which bothers opposition in Slovenia as well. At any rate, the lack of support by SDP meant that Kosor does not have the required 2/3 majority she needs to carry the motion in the parliament. As a result, negotiations in Croatia will apparently continue on Friday.
Coming this close to a solution naturally fuelled speculation about what exactly happened that allowed this sudden (if not entirely successful) push forward. Obviously Pahor’s visit to Zagreb did bear fruit, contrary to what leader of Slovenian opposition Janez Janša said on Tuesday. Jadranka Kosor herself said yesterday after cancelling the cabinet meeting that Slovenia might very well re-invoke the blockade if the agreement is not passed. On the other hand it seems that SDP’s Zoran Milovanović was nudged a bit closer to supporting the agreement, since he was at least willing to talk it over, something he apparently refused to do until now. This may or may not have to do with the fact that Slovene PM Borut Pahor (who just happens to be Milanović’s social democratic brother-in-arms) paid him a visit after meeting Kosor on Monday.
Since the stick rarely works without the carrot, it seems logical (although entirely unsubstantiated by as much as a shred of evidence) that Pahor tried to sweeten the deal as well. Croatian media speculate (and Slovenian media is happily following suit) that Pahor offered to settle claims Croatian citizens have against Nova Ljubljanska banka (NLB), which are the result of Slovenian restructuring of the banking sector in mid-nineties and which amount to several hundred million euros. Until now Slovenia claimed that these claims are to be solved within the framework of Yugoslav succession treaty, but – if media speculation is correct – there is a possibility of a quid pro quo on both issues. On the other hand, this could be just a ploy to undermine what was achieved, since this sweetener could easly be interpreted as a sell-out, as “money-for-territory” which would be tantamount to high treason. Not that these charges are limited to Croatia. Only today Slovenian PM Pahor was accused of high treason by Mlada Slovenia, youth organisation of far-right Nova Slovenija.
At any rate, more will be known on Friday, when negotiations in Croatia will continue. But fact of the matter is that the longer they take, the smaller the chances are for a consensus in Croatian politics. Obviously the same goes for Slovenian politics as well.
Is he the brother of borat?