Social Democrats Win Slovenian Elections

20080921_pahor01.jpg
Borut Pahor – the new PM? (source)

According to exit polls both by POP TV and RTVSLO, opposition Social Democrats won today’s parliamentary elections in Slovenia. They have won around 32 percent of the poll, with Janez Janša’s SDS coming in second with 28 percent.

Zares took third spot with 11 percent, DeSUS (pensioner’s party) 7,5 while SNS (nationalists) and LDS both won five percent. SLS and NSi (right wing coalition parties) did not make it above the 4% treshold, and neither did Lipa and KDS. For the moment it appears that SD, Zares and LDS will form the new government with Borut Pahor as the new PM, but it remains to be seen whether they can do it by themselves or will they need DeSUS’s votes to do it.

More at around 2200 CET, after pengovsky files reports for The Firm™

EDIT @ 0040hrs: Two hours late, but it was a long night (still is, btw). According to the results of the National Electoral Commission, the final results will be much closer than anticipated by the exit polls. With most of the vote (99.97 %) counted, Borut Pahor’s SD got 30.50 percent. while Janez Janša’s SDS got 29.31 percent. Janez Janša has so far refused to concede, extending only a “conditional congratulations” to Borut Pahor (Janša: “insofar as the exit poll results are valid”), while the latter refused to declare an outright victory.

Nevertheless it is clear that the left bloc won, however, it remains to be seen how many seats in the parliament each party will take. There is a mathematical possibility that both SD and SDS will equal number of seats, creating an interesting situation as to who will get a mandate to form government. To be more precise, since equal number of seats would put Janša and Pahor in a fairly equal position, it would be interesting to see what kind of an offer would Janez Janša be prepared to make to secure a majortiy in the parliament and retain the prime-ministerial post

However, a split in the trio of SD-Zares-LDS seems improbable at this juncture, not in the least because a lof of effort was put into making the three leaders say that they will not form a coalition with Janša. But this severly limits their options and sending political stock of DeSUS sky-high. Namely – the way things stand, the trio has 43 seats in the parliament, three shy of a minimal majoriy, which means that they have to take onbooard either DeSUS or SLS, which only barely made it above the 4 percent threshold. Both parties were members of Janša’s coalition, but the way things stand now, DeSUS has a much better chance of becoming a part of the new coalition. Although I kind of doubt it that Karel Erjavec will keep the post of defence minister 😉

And while we’re on the subject: It seems Dimitrij Rupel finally met his political demise. He was not elected into the parliament and has little chance of becoming a foreign minister yet again. Janez Podobnik and Bojan Šrot of SLS met the same fate, with Podobnik facing a much more uncertain future, since Šrot is still serving as mayor of Celje and thus retains some political leverage. Also, Andrej Bajuk of NSi and Sašo Peče of Lipa didn’t make the cut and bought a ticket on the fast train to the political Big Adios. What will become of their parties remains to be seen, but things are looking rather bleak at the moment.

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pengovsky

Agent provocateur and an occasional scribe.

26 thoughts on “Social Democrats Win Slovenian Elections”

  1. (Premature?) Congratulations to the winner(s). Still kind of a surprise as it looked like a close race, from what I could gather in the run up to the elections and Pahor’s fumbling debating skills, I thought, could have been a turnoff. So I guess Slovenija was ready for change, and they didn’t even need Barack Obama. Jansa’s wheeling dealing moves might have helped him lose as well, of course… I’ll be awaiting the next report.

  2. Another case of “Dewey defeats Truman”.

    SLOVENSKA DEMOKRATSKA STRANKA – SDS
    29,62 %

    SOCIALNI DEMOKRATI
    29,61 %

    52,78 % counted

  3. @mars: So you’re into TBH (tall, blonde and – well – handsome)? 😉

    @dr. Arf & abaris: Much closer than originally reported, but still – no Dewey v Truman.

    And to the TV networks: fuck you very much, you were way off with SD and SDS. A big minus.

  4. Golobič in tomorrow’s MMM?

    Such a sacrilege.

    Everybody knows who’s the prettiest of them all(in the parliament)
    AND he won.
    So? Is there any doubt?

  5. Yeah, OK, but the occasion now calls for something more stately, majestic, imperial,
    after all he is (hopefully) gonna be the prime minister
    AND he beat Janša.

  6. And before you know it, you have a Belgian Problem. One party being the winner, but not by a sufficient enough margin to form a bipartite government. Take it into tripartite territory and things become even more complex, but as long as they’re in the same ideological spectrum, enough common ground could be found to form a government and formulate a coherent policy. Form a rainbow coalition with at least one of your opposites and you might be heading for new elections before your term is up because the situation turns unworkable somewhere along the line. At least the split here is ideological and not cultural, with the country’s north and south divided. Either way, you’ll have a government soon, which is more than we can say. One year, three months and twelve days after our last national elections, our politicians can only embarrass themselves and the country they represent by blurting out hollow rhetoric – on both sides of the language barrier, I must hasten to add – because they are gearing up for the regional elections next year, which have gained so much importance because of this crisis now, that the country I live in, is de facto only in name worthy of that designation. Formulating, let alone executing a coherent policy is non existent here, because politicians are more interested in winning the regionals, effectively holding this country in limbo for two years. But I digress : go Pahor! :mrgreen:

  7. @pengovsky: He he, I’m just into LSN (left, smart, new), plus we’ve already had Pahor on MMM. So, who’s next? Golobic, right? 😉

  8. Yeah. I want the Smooth Operator, too. 😈

    (BTW, they reported about the elections on the state-owned Deutschland Radio Kultur yesterday. They even interviewed some voters (it was nice to hear Slovene on a German radio), some of them speaking Deutsch. Also, they pronounced both candidates’ names correctly.

  9. I want the beautiful threesome in MMM (Pahor, Kresal AND Golubič)!!!
    Even if they play it together, they still don’t get to steer the parliament.

  10. Dr ARF what about the Austrian Problem in the coming election.It looks like nobody can form a government without the other.

  11. Arf, what i’d really like to see is the “Belgian problem” in Slovenia extending to the “committee of the three wise men” and their page long report on said problem..! Priceless!

  12. Well, Poulette, that page long report is the Belgian variation on talking loud, but saying nothing. My take on the whole sordid fifteen month long affair is upcoming, as per P-pular demand. :mrgreen: P, expect a mail with attachment incoming any time now…

    @Dr. Mams : since I’ve no ties to Austria, both socially and politically, I can’t comment on their problem.

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