This is the last in the series of pre-election posts. Tommorow is skin day and barring any breaking news I will post again on Sunday around 1900 CET when exit polls will be published.
And exit polls will probably be the weakest link in this year’s elections. There will probably be a couple of exit polls, but those done by both TV networks (RTVSLO and POPTV) will be the most important. Given the fact that RTVSLO‘s exit polls will be done by Interstat which has a record of publishing figures favouring the government (hey, it is a state television, right?), it is entirely possible that exit polls will give us two different results, with RTVSLO claiming a relative victory of SDS while POPTV claimed a victory of SD.
I’m not saying it will happen. I’m saying it could happen.
Indeed, the fact that the two largest parties, SDS and SD are so close to each other (that is, they were when the last polls were published), could ultimately lead to contesting the election results altogether – especially by SDS, should it end up in second place. Given the fact that all bets are off and that the campaign was brutal, neither of the two parties is likely to put on a chivalrous performance and admit defeat immediately. This can turn ugly
Again. I’m not saying it will happen. But the closer the result between SDS and SD, the better the chances of something like that happening.
To go on. It is quite possible that overseas ballots will decide the final outcome, clinching a victory for SDS. This will not go down lightly with the left bloc since the government seems to have used data on overseas voters to have SDS and NSi election material sent to them (as reported by From Buffalo With Love and Michael N) Whether or not this constitutes abuse is a matter of some debate, but the left bloc will go apeshit if the “diaspora” decides the elections.
And finally, it is entirely possible (although hopefully highly improbable) that some bright political soul flips because it didn’t get as much votes as projected and starts questioning the legitimacy of elections themselves. This would be the worst-case scenario, because it can very easily spiral out of control.
P.S.: Prime Minister Janez Janša turned 50 yesterday. Happy birthday!