A new edition of Politbarometer, a more or less monthly check-up of public opinion polled and published by Public Opinion and Mass Communication Research Centre revealed what has a Ninamedia poll a month ago detected: that Zmago Jelinčič and his SNS are on the rise. This time around they took the third spot, which should ring alarm bells all over the political spectrum.
NOTE: for unknown reasons Politbarometer failed to detect Sašo Peče’s Slovenska Lipa. It only cites 1% of the vote under “other”. For reasons of continuity I put that result in Lipa’s column.
According to this poll SNS is the only party on the rise, which is bad bad news especially for the left bloc, because it means that the canmpaign will acquire an increasingly populistic tone. But it is even worse news for the right bloc, because it is now clear that Janša’s attempts to take over SLS and NSi votes have resulted in driving the voters of these two parties over to SNS, suddenly making it a force to be reckoned with. But this also sheds a whole new light on possible post-election coalition arangements. So far we’ve only compared two easily identifiable blocs: SD, LDS and Zares (left bloc) versus SDS, SLS and NSi (right bloc), with other parties playing a side role. At the moment this gives us the following division of the decided voters (note that as much as 39 percent of voters remain undecided) :
If we now indulge in some political mathematics, we are presented with two options. ONE: Call it a true left/right split. In this scenario SD, LDS, Zares and DeSUS form a completely left wing coalition and enjoy a comfortable 6 percent lead over the right bloc. TWO: The ruling coalition is extended to include Jelinčič’s SNS and in this scenario we are faced with a split down the middle, which – some claim – is the natural state of Slovene politics.
Translated into reality (with some help of electoral mathematics), this would mean that a left-wing government would enjoy a small, but managable majority in the parliament, whereas a right-wing government would have a mininimal majority, possibly having to rely on the votes of minortiy deputies, which traditionally vote with the government.
There is another element, however. Today, President Danilo Türk addresses the parliament on the issue of the Constitutional Court, which is subject to increasing political pressures as well as burdened with an exponential increase in cases. Türk – whose yesterday’s speech to the European Parliament has won international acclaim – will most likely strike at the core of the issue and possibly shift the focus on the debate to some elementary problems this country is faced with – the independency of the judicial branch being chief among them.
Pengovsky’s projection: Which of the two scenarios will occur mostly depends on which party gets the most votes. If Janša’s SDS tops Pahor’s SD, then the second scenario is much more likely to happen, as Janša will (as he should) do anything in his power to continue running the country. However, the Prez’s speech might stir the pot just enough to add some real content to the election campaign and force the parties to take a stand with or against the proposed issues, and – by extention – with or against the President himself.
14 thoughts on “SNS Sets Sights On Coalition As The Prez Addresses Parliament”
It’s so much easier to ride the wave of popularity on the nationalistic platform than to build credibility by fighting, among other issues, for the independence of a judicial system that the general public perceives as highly inefficient if not corrupt.
Dr. Fil foresees a well-timed Deus ex Machina appearance by at least one highly eloquent person considered to be an indisputable moral authority by many Slovenians.
The Little Big President? Hummmm…. Could be, but it will cut both ways.
Both ways? Do explain.
Well, it may energize the left-bloc, but it may also antagonize the centre vote needed to win the election.
What do you think it would do to SNS would-be voters?
To them, nothing… Their number depends solely on the quarrels on the right side of the political spectrum.
I believe you are very much mistaken in this respect.
Wanna take it outside?
Oooooooooh tempting! The sun’s out today 😉
I know… I’m temptation personified…
Sex and Politics…. irresistible 😉 (urška, carla & alina press)
You’re really serious that Kučan coming back into politics would help left wing parties?
I think he wouldn’t. His time is over, he may be considered an indisputable moral authority by some grandmothers and grandfathers, but I think it’s time for new ppl, like … mmmm
Luca Juri, Patric Vlačič?, not that I’m their fan, but they’re young, fresh, ppl who think there are more important issues to talk about then who was on the right side and who was on the wrong one during WWII
@Aja: I was not referring to any oldies getting involved with politics again, I believe them to be more likely to make relatively powerful appearances at opportune moments.
The grandmothers and grandfathers you refer to are more likely to vote than the traditionally apathetic youth. Let’s get everyone in gear and out there, eh?
I most certainly agree that issues that affect us here and now are those that should truly interest voters. Such as having an independent judiciary branch. Such as upholding the principles behind the definition of Slovenia as a social state as stipulated in Article 2 of the Constitution. Such as considering investment into research and development along with lifelong training and education as a top priority for this nation.
Having said that, I also consider the attitude to the events of WWII and any other major even in the nation’s history to be a good indicator of one’s character and outlook and will personally judge any political platform and programme based not only on the outlook for the future, but also on how it is based on the past.
One does well to keep in mind that history tends to repeat itself.
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