So, we’ve got two new polls as of a couple of days ago. One by Večer daily and one by Ninamedia, each very different from the other. And while Ninamedia’s poll keeps within the broad trend shown by the other polls, Večer’s poll shows a staggeringly different result.
The thing that stands out the most with Večer poll is a large percentage of the undecided vote – even larger than in the Parsifal poll taken a week ago.Funny thing is, though, that both polls (Večer and Parsifal) show a similiarily high percentage of undecided voters and correspondingly low numbers for the two main rivals: Janez Janša‘s rulling Slovene Democratic Party (SDS) and Borut Pahor‘s opposition Social Democrats (SD). Furthermore, the SDS has a slight lead over SD, which is another similarity with the Parsifal poll. And if you look at the Episcenter poll, you’ll notice that this poll too records a lead of SDS over SD but a very low number of the undecided vote – very much like Ninamedia, which has the lowest number of undecided voters since this blog started summing up the polls (three weeks ago).
Now, it has to be noted, that Večer’s poll indicates a statistical error of some 3,5 percent, which means that results for NSi, DeSUS, SLS and Lipa are practically useless, as their results could vary significantly with a slighlty different sample. It would be interesting to see, however, statistical errors of the other polls. I suspect it is smaller as their sample is somewhat higher, but all-in-all this might prove to be a crucial piece of information. What is interesting, though, is the fact that two “camps” of polls seem to be developing. One with a high rate of the undecided vote and with the two main parties being tied (or with SDS slightly ahead), and the other with a smaller percentage of the undecided vote and with SD slightly ahead of SDS. The reason for it? Technically, I think we can put it down to a different sample. Is it political? Could be. Too early to tell…
Pengovsky’s projection:: Obviously the two main conteders remain the same and I suspect that as time passes the battle between SDS and SD will turn into a battle between Janez Janša and Borut Pahor. Further down the poll the nationalists seem to be comfortably running circles around the 5% mark, but we’ll see if Sašo Peče will steal the limelight as he and his renegade nationalists will officially form Slovenska lipa party on March 1. Another duel to watch is of course the LDS/Zares thing, where the latter seems to be ahead on the whole, but differences between the two parties are minimal. Given the peculiarities of Slovene voting body, I still think all of the polled parties will make it across the four-percent-treshold.