Pahor And Janša Neck-And-Neck

We’ve had anohter new poll yesterday, this one done by Episcenter pollsters. This poll, still done in the days prior to Operation Clean Shovel, shows that both Social Democrats and the ruling SDS rate at 22% which is definitely bad news for Borut Pahor. The short time span in which all polls were conducted means that were are seing the same situation from different angles rather than a continuing trend, but still…

This poll is interesting for one more reason. It has the lowest percentage of undecided voters and higher percentage of decided voters for all parties except DeSUS and Zares. Now, obviously we can put that down to a slightly different sample, perhaps focusing on rural Slovenia (I’m guessing here) – especially since SLS, SNS and NSi got a substantially higher percentage than in competing polls, but it would appear that pengovsky’s previous assesment of all the smaller parties making it across the 4% treshold is probably correct. Except Lipa, which noone polls at the moment, as Sašo Peče still has to formally create a party.

Pengovsky’s projection: much like the last time around. SDS and SD will increasingly go for each other’s neck, as will probably LDS and Zares. Smaller parties are looking to make it to the parliament, if something big doesn’t happend and we don’t have a landslide victory by either of the big two. Barring that a coalition between SDS and SD looks likely to happen, but we’re still a long way from autumn.